Week 17 Picks

It’s the last week of the regular season and pretty much everything is still up for grabs. It is the first season I can ever really remember where there would have been no harm in having the fantasy football championships played in Week 17. Seriously, there are only three games that have zero playoff implications – obviously one of them involves the Redskins.

As for the playoffs, after last week they should just cancel the second wild card in the AFC. Miami and Baltimore both proved they don’t deserve it and now it is a four team race with approximately 10 different scenarios in which no one completely control their own destiny. All the teams win, Miami is in, but if all of them lose, Baltimore is in; if Miami and Baltimore win, but the Chargers lose, then Baltimore gets in, and it goes on. But it will be exciting for those fans, nothing is quite as agonizing as scoreboard watching.

The craziest thing is that the AFC is crappy enough that this mystery wild card could end up making the Super Bowl and I wouldn’t be shocked. I will be shocked if I somehow get all my picks correct, but if I do, I’ll finish the season above .500.

Last Week: 8-8
Lock of the Week: 4-11-1
Season: 109-123-9

Home team in CAPS

FALCONS (+6.5) over Panthers
The trick I have to avoid this week is thinking that every team that has something to play for will cover over the teams that are eliminated. I could definitely see this game being close the entire way.

Texans (+7) over TITANS
I still believe the Redskins have a chance at ending this season in the most humiliating way, which would have to involve the Texans winning here.

STEELERS (-7) over Browns
Pittsburgh has covered six of their last seven spreads, the Browns have failed to cover five of their last six spreads. Trends!

Redskins (+3.5) over GIANTS
While I still somewhat expect the Redskins to finish with the worst record in the league, for some reason I have a feeling they will win this game. There is no evidence or theory behind this feeling.

BENGALS (-6) over Ravens
I’ve written about it frequently, but the Bengals are an unstoppable juggernaut at home, built solely for the purpose of covering spreads.

Jaguars (+11) over COLTS
It’s always a crapshoot with the inconsistent Colts. Double digit spreads are too much for a crapshoot.

DOLPHINS (-6) over Jets
As long as I’m talking about inconsistency, seems like a perfect time for both the Dolphins and the Jets. I trust the Jets will continue to be crappy on the road, but I also have no faith whatsoever in the Dolphins after last week.

Lions (+3) over VIKINGS
Do not bet on this game. One, it’s meaningless. Two, two lame duck coaches. Three, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are both listed as questionable. Nothing good can come of this.

Bills (+8.5) over PATRIOTS
New England seems to have a serious case of only playing well against good teams this season. Expect them to play down and this game to be a lot closer than it should be.

Packers (-3) over BEARS
Aaron Rodgers is finally back after what seemed like the longest absence in professional sports history due to a broken collar bone. At this point I’ve probably built him up in my head too much because who even remembers what he played like, but I’m pretty sure the Packers are far and away the better team with Rodgers.

SAINTS (-12.5) over Buccaneers
I know this line is too high, but I see the Saints murdering this game. They will score 45 points and everyone will be high on their offensive firepower heading into the playoffs, where they will proceed to get beat by 12 points on the road.

RAIDERS (+12) over Broncos
Double-digit home underdog. Matchup is irrelevant, I’m taking it.

CARDINALS (even) over 49ers
Poor Cardinals. They will go 11-5, but sit at home and watch the 9-7 Dolphins play in the playoffs.

Chiefs (+9.5) over CHARGERS

Lock of the Week

I realize Kansas City is locked into the five seed and has nothing to gain, so they might rest their starters. But if Miami or Baltimore wins their early game, then the Chargers have nothing to play for either, making this line crazy high.

SEAHAWKS (-11) over Rams
I would love to see the Rams cover and have people sour on the Seahawks playoff chances because they played back-to-back subpar games at home, but I can’t imagine it actually happening.

COWBOYS (+6.5) over Eagles
It seems like the spread swung just a bit too much with Romo getting injured. Sure, it hurts the Cowboys and I think the Eagles will win, but I’m wary of this line.

Week 16 Picks

Mercifully there is no Thursday game this week. Of course this didn’t occur until Thursday games ruined about half of survivor and fantasy leagues across the globe. Regardless, I will enjoy the extra game on Red Zone on Sunday. Also, I enjoyed not having to think to myself, oh yeah, there is a football game on TV right now last night.

Let’s get into it.

Last week: 9-6-1
Lock of the Week: 3-11-1
Season: 101-115-9

Home team in CAPS

Dolphins (-2.5) over BILLS

Add the Dolphins to the growing list of teams I have no idea what to expect from. Could they make the playoff and win a game or two? Sure! Could they drop their last two games to the Bills and Jets? Absolutely! Could one of their players drive another one to leave the team and open up a multi-week discourse about the nature of bullying and sports that is nearly forgotten after a month? Wait, this one already happened.

PANTHERS (-3) over Saints

Not to be trusted outside of New Orleans – girls excited to flash you in exchange for beads, Crawfish Etouffee, Delta blues, and the Saints.

Cowboys (-3) over REDSKINS

I’ll take December Romo over anything Redskins related in 2013.

RAMS (-5) over Buccaneers

The Rams seem like a team with promise, but sadly for them they are in the best division in football. Also, somehow no one has any idea if Sam Bradford is any good or not yet.

CHIEFS (-6.5) over Colts

Both teams are playing for playoff seeding, but there is a lot more on the line for the Chiefs, who could be first, second, or fifth. The Colts are likely the three or four-seed with a slight, but unlikely chance at the two seed. Good chance this game is replayed in two weeks in Indy.

JETS (-2.5) over Browns
Lock of the Week

I’d say this is a strong bet, except for the fact that I’ve made it my lock of the week, which all but guarantees that it is a terrible bet. The Browns have lost eight of their last nine (although everyone knows they deserved to beat the Patriots) and the Jets are 5-2 at home.

BENGALS (-7.5) over Vikings

The Vikings have covered the spread in their last four games and in six of their last seven, but the Bengals are undefeated at home, both straight up and against the spread.

TEXANS (+10.5) over Broncos

Double digit favorites on the road is a little too much. Plus, we are a Texans win away from the Redskins having the worst record in the NFL, so destiny might push them forward here.

JAGUARS (+5) over Titans

I can’t muster up the energy to write anything about this game.

SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Cardinals

I don’t like this line at all and believe the Cardinals are the better pick, but for no reason whatsoever, I think the Seahawks will cover. And we should go ahead and start talking about this right now - in 4 years when we find out that the Seahawks had a doctor supplying the entire team PEDs, what do we do about them winning the Super Bowl this year? Does it still count?

LIONS (-9) over Giants

Remember that mid-season run the Giants made when it looked like they’d get into the playoff picture? Thankfully all that mess is over and Eli Manning has gone back to being Captain Interception.

Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS

San Diego has been looking strong lately, my instincts tell me it is time for them to be terrible. Perhaps no longer a fair statement in the post-Norv era, but they have to prove it to me first.

Steelers @ PACKERS

There is no line for this game because no one is sure if Aaron Rodgers is going to play. If he plays, they’ll cover, if he does not, they will not.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Patriots

No one should trust the Patriots on the road. The Ravens will win this game, drop the Patriots to the three-seed, but then lose to the Bengals next week and have to go to Foxboro to play the Pats in the first round of the playoffs, where they will proceed to lose by 19 points.

EAGLES (-3) over Bears
The Eagles will rush for 300 yards and the Bears will pass for 400 yards. Should be fun.

Falcons (+13) over 49ERS

I bet ESPN is pretty annoyed that the Falcons were so disappointing this year. This game was likely intended to set the tone for the NFC favorite, whoops.

Week 15 picks - The End is Near

The Redskins situation is so ugly that I barely want to watch any football. Couple that with the fact that both my fantasy teams are out and I’ve had real work to do at work, and all of the sudden it’s the middle of the day on Thursday and I’ve forgotten that NFL Week 15 starts tonight.

Hoping to build on back-to-back winning weeks and finish strong. Except of course for my lock of the week, which is still hot garbage.

Last Week: 9-7
Joke of the Week: 3-10-1
Season: 92-109-8

Home team in CAPS

BRONCOS (-10.5) over Chargers

I want to say this spread is too high, but Denver continues to crank out large victories and appears unbeatable at home (for now, this opinion/fact could change during the playoffs).

FALCONS (-7) over Redskins

It seems impossible for this Redskins season to end in any way other than them finishing with the worst record and handing the number one pick to the Rams.

49ers (-5) over BUCCANEERS

I can’t believe that Tampa is a capable team. Sure, I haven’t watched them actually play at all this year, but I’m sticking to my guns. My guns being believing in the narrative that was created when they were 0-7 (I know they went 0-8 to start, but that 8th loss was a really close game in Seattle, the first signs that perhaps they aren’t terrible and perhaps Greg Schiano isn’t the worst).

Seahawks (-7) over GIANTS

The most interceptions Eli Manning has thrown in a season is 25. He is at 20 right now with three games to go. Can he break it? I believe in you Eli!

Bears (even) over BROWNS

Jay Cutler is likely to play and the Bears go from underdogs to even? People are familiar with Jay Cutler right? Just so another team feels confused by their quarterback situation, I hope Cutler starts the rest of the season, plays poorly, and then is offered a multi-million dollar contract to stay in Chicago.

COLTS (-5.5) over Texans

In order for the Redskins to end up with that top pick (and then not actually have it) the Texans have to get at least one win in there somewhere and I’m not sure if that’s possible, but it will happen because, Redskins.

Bills (+2) over JAGUARS

Remember when we all thought the Jaguars would end the season winless?

Patriots (even) over DOLPHINS

I get that the Patriots have been subpar on the road, with their only wins coming over the Falcons, Texans, and Bills – by a collective 12 points, but well, actually --

DOLPHINS (even) over Patriots

I’ve convinced myself.

Eagles (-4.5) over VIKINGS

Lock of the Week
Let's see how good the Eagles really are. Can they fight through my lock of the week jinx? Ultimately, I’m fine with the Eagles recovering from a bad season, starting slow and then rallying to win the NFC East. We all know what happens to those teams the following year.

PANTHERS (-11) over Jets

One of two things happen – either the Jets play like they have on the road all season, and turn the ball over a ton as Carolina beats up on a bad team to feel better about their spanking last week. OR Carolina is looking past the Jets to another shot at the Saints to redeem themselves from their spanking and get caught in a trap game.

RAMS (+6) over Saints

New Orleans has lost its last four road games against the spread and St. Louis does well against teams that are not strong defensively.

Cardinals (-3) over TITANS

Arizona seems poised to just miss the playoff and have people get really excited about them. But then those people will at some point remember that Carson Palmer is 34 and Carson Palmer. Fun game – guess the age difference between Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington? While tempted to guess 12 years, the actual answer is only two years.

Chiefs (-4.5) over RAIDERS

The tendency is to think that Kansas City is a team with among the strongest home field advantage in the league, but they are actually 5-1 against the spread on the road and just 2-5 ATS at home.

COWBOYS (-7) over Packers

If Aaron Rodgers plays, take whatever the spread is and bet on Green Bay.

STEELERS (+2.5) over Bengals

I still like the AFC North on the road in divisional games.

LIONS (-6) over Ravens

And I mostly like that because AFC North teams are terrible on the road. I don’t remember home field being this important in the NFL in recent years, so I looked it up. This year home teams have won 61.84% of games. In 2012, 57.25% of home teams won. In 2011, 56.64%. And in 2010, 55.86%. Also, home favorites are covering 55.22% of games, which is far better than my own winning percentage.

Week 14 Picks

Due my lack of skill in making picks, the terribleness of the Redskins, and an overall lack of exciting playoff races, for the first time ever, I’m more interested in my fantasy football results than I am in real football results. It is a weird feeling. But, RED HOT ALERT! I’m coming off my fourth winning week of the season.

Last Week: 8-7-1
Lock of the Week: 3-9-1
Season: 83-102-8

Home team in CAPS

JAGUARS (-3) over Texans

Everyone is in for a treat tonight! Thursday night football is usually terrible, but we’ve got the Texans and Jaguars battling this week. That’s right! The teams that currently hold the top two picks in the 2014 draft are facing off. We can only hope this game lives up to their contest from two weeks ago, in which Jacksonville won a 13-6 thrillfest.

Chiefs (-3) over REDSKINS

While I didn’t expect the Redskins to make the playoffs this season, I certainly didn’t expect this level of suck. It is frustrating because at times they look like a team capable of playing the sport of football, but unfortunately most of the time they do not look that way, which is a problem for a professional football team.

RAVENS (-6.5) over Vikings

Baltimore will have a full one game lead for the final AFC wild card spot after this week, but I think everyone can agree that the AFC doesn’t even deserve six playoff teams this year.

PATRIOTS (-11.5) over Browns

If the Browns end up starting Alex Tanney or Caleb Hanie and Josh Gordon still manages to get over 200 yards receiving then everyone needs to stop what they are doing and vote him into the Pro Bowl – and possibly the Hall of Fame.

Raiders (+3) over JETS

This seems like a no brainer, but at the same time the Jets have beaten both the Saints and Patriots this season at home, so in conclusion, I have no idea.

BENGALS (-6) over Colts

Cincinnati has not lost against the spread at home this year, so might as well keep riding them. In all likelihood this game is for the third seed in the AFC, winner gets the Ravens (or whoever ends up being sixth), loser gets the Chiefs.

EAGLES (-2.5) over Lions

I don’t like the idea of the Eagles being for real, but I think the Lions are going to ensure that the NFC North race goes down to the last week.

STEELERS (-3) over Dolphins
Lock of the Week

In retrospect, do you think Jacoby Jones wishes he had just trucked Mike Tomlin? If he had actually made contact Tomlin would likely have gotten in more trouble and the Steelers would have been given a 15-yard penalty.

Bills (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS

I think the Bucs moment of glory has passed, they will revert to losing games.

Titans (+12) over BRONCOS

Just seems a bit too high.

CARDINALS (-6.5) over Rams

Arizona is still really good at home and I don’t see how the Rams can score against their defense.

CHARGERS (-3) over Giants

The final death blow for the Giants in my mind was when they barely beat the Redskins. Yes, the Redskins actually beat the Chargers, but that was before they turned into complete mush.

Seahawks (+3) over 49ERS

No one knows what to make of Seattle outside of Seattle, so let’s just stay away from this game.

PACKERS (-??) over Falcons

This line will move by about eight or so points depending on if Aaron Rodgers is capable of playing. I’ll go ahead and say now, if he plays, they’ll cover whatever the line is, if he does not, they will not cover.

Cowboys (+1) over BEARS

Chicago’s terrible run defense is too much to overcome.

SAINTS (-3) over Panthers

Despite how hot the Panthers are, I just think the Saints are too good at home and I don’t see Brees having two bad games in a row.

Week 13 Picks - Thanksgiving

It’s Thanksgiving week. That means two things. One, no one will read this, and two, I have to write this on Wednesday afternoon, so it will be short and less researched than normal. AND YES, I do research games at least a little bit most weeks – you can see the results it has gotten me.

One Thanksgiving question for you – why do we only eat stuffing and cranberry sauce once a year? They are both delicious and should be entered into the regular rotation of side dishes.

Last Week: 6-8
Lock of the Week: 2-9-1
Season: 75-95-7

Home team in CAPS

Packers (+6.5) over LIONS
Matt Flynn owns Detroit! Despite kind of wanting the Lions to win, I really want Matt Flynn to go off in this game and somehow turn that into another big contract and then be terrible wherever he plays other than with the Packers.

Raiders (+9.5) over COWBOYS
Just seems like too many points for a team with one of the worst defenses in football. But there is also a blowout every Thanksgiving, so I’ll probably be missing at least one of these first two picks.

Steelers (+3) over RAVENS
The last four games between these two teams have all been decided by exactly three points, so either it will be a push, or the Steelers will win by three and thus win the bet.

COLTS (-4) over Titans
No team is more schizophrenic than the Colts. They beat the 49ers in San Fran and Seattle and Denver at home, but they also lost to the Dolphins and Rams at home and did not show up at all in Arizona last week.

Jaguars (+7) over BROWNS
Lock of the Week
Brandon Weeden. That is all.

Buccaneers (+8.5) over PANTHERS
Break up the Bucs! They are on fire!

Patriots (-7.5) over TEXANS
Anyone think it was gonna be the Texans who ended up with the top overall pick in the draft? I’m positive more people had them in the Super Bowl than as the No. 1 pick.

Bears (+1) over VIKINGS
I know the Bears were bad last week, but the Vikings are still much, much worse.

Cardinals (+3) over EAGLES
The Cardinals have won four straight, but still only have two road victories on the year – over the Bucs and Jags. Meanwhile the Eagles have won three straight, but only have one home victory this year, over the Redskins. In conclusion, I don’t trust either team in the location they are playing, so I’m taking the points.

JETS (-1.5) over Dolphins
New York finally lost back-to-back games, but I expect them to bounce back and return to .500 here.

Broncos (-5.5) over CHIEFS
Kansas City free fall alert (but not really, they play the Redskins next week).

BILLS (-3) over Falcons
I finally pick against the Falcons last week and they cover the spread. Fuck those guys.

Rams (+8) over 49ERS
The 49ers didn’t do anything special on Monday, in fact I’m picking against them here just on the basis of how terrible the Redskins were.

Bengals (even) over CHARGERS
It seems like the Chargers should be favored, given the Bengals struggles on the road, but they are not, so I’m going to assume Vegas is smarter than me.

Giants (-1.5) over REDSKINS
On the plus side, the chances of the Giants making the Super Bowl are now severely diminished.

SEAHAWKS (-5.5) over Saints
Even though the Seahawks haven’t been dominating at home with quite the same veracity that I was expecting them to after their early season performance, I still think they are the pick. By the way, whoever wins this game will likely get home field and thus be heavy favorites to make the Super Bowl from the NFC.

Week 12 - Someone Terrible Will Make the Playoffs

A terrible team will make the NFL playoffs. That shouldn’t really be a surprise, there is a double-digit underdog in the first round of the playoffs with relative frequency. This year, that team will be the second AFC wild card. For perspective on how bad the second AFC wild card will be, the Jacksonville Jaguars are currently only four games out of that playoff spot.

If the playoffs started today (dumb statement that gets used far too often, because clearly the playoffs do not start today, but I’m using it all the same) the Jets would travel to New England for a first round game. Granted, the Jets only lost by three when they played the Pats on the road earlier this season and actually defeated them at home, so maybe that wouldn’t be such a terrible game.

Also in the hunt: Dolphins (5-5), Steelers (4-6), Ravens (4-6), Browns (4-6), Titans (4-6), Chargers (4-6), and Raiders (4-6). That is eight teams all within one game of one another for one playoff spot.

Final record predictions: Jets (8-8), Dolphins (7-9), Steelers (7-9), Ravens (7-9 – and they’ll look like they’ve turned a corner at 7-6 before losing three straight to end the season), Titans (7-9), Browns (6-10), Raiders (6-10), Chargers (6-10).

While the AFC is stuck with the suck off for its sixth and final spot, the NFC actually has some exciting playoff races. Unfortunately for them, there will almost assuredly be a 10-6 team that misses the playoffs.

Among the tight NFC playoff races is the NFC East, but let’s call that over because I think we all know the Giants will go 10-6 and make it to the Super Bowl in New York. It is going to happen.

Last week: 5-7-3
Lock of the Week: 2-8-1
Season: 69-87-7

Home team in CAPS

Saints (-9.5) over FALCONS
I absolutely think this line is too high, but I can’t in good conscious pick the Falcons again after so many weeks in a row of them burning me.

LIONS (-9) over Buccaneers
How many games in a row would Greg Schiano need to win for his job to be safe? I think even if the Bucs finished the season on an eight game winning streak, he still has a good chance of being fired.

Jaguars (+10) over TEXANS
Last week I said the Texans shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown over anyone. Then they go out and lose by five to Matt McGloin and the Raiders, yet somehow they are favored by 10 points this week. Fun fact about the Texans, they have allowed the fewest yards of any defense in the NFL, but somehow have also allowed the fifth most points.

Vikings (+4.5) over PACKERS
Finally we will get the answer to the age old question – who is a better quarterback Christian Ponder or Scott Tolzien. The sad news for the Vikings is that they are playing Ponder by choice, while the Packers are playing Tolzien out of necessity.

CHIEFS (-5) over Chargers

Lock of the Week
San Diego is terrible on the road and the Chiefs are still a good team. I imagine after getting shown up last week, the Chiefs defensive line will absolutely wreck shit against Rivers and the Chargers.

Panthers (-4.5) over DOLPHINS
I now believe in the Panthers, so apologies Panthers for the run of losses you are about to go on because I believed in you.

BROWNS (-2) over Steelers
I will ride the home team in AFC North matchups until it does not work.

Bears (+1) over RAMS
The Bears are just an all-around better team with a much better offense than the Rams.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Jets
I’m at odds because this is the Jets turn to win a game, but they only have one win on the road this season and for the most part have been terrible away from New York. I’ll go against the somewhat meaningless trend and pay attention to the fact that seems slightly more football related.

RAIDERS (even) over Titans
There are playoff implications in a game between Matt McGloin and Ryan Fitzpatrick. What the hell is wrong with the AFC?

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Colts
I want nothing to do with putting real money on this game.

GIANTS (-2.5) over Cowboys
New York in the New York Super Bowl! Since I’ve resigned myself to the fact that this travesty will happen, I have two requests. Please, please don’t have the Super Bowl be Giants vs. Jets or Giants vs. Patriots. I can’t handle it.

PATRIOTS (+2.5) over Broncos
I will take Tom Brady and points at home every single time. Do you know the last time the Patriots were home underdogs? November 7, 2005 – against? Yep, Peyton Manning.

49ers (-5.5) over REDSKINS
I learned my lesson about picking the Redskins.

Week 11 Picks - Post Thursday

A push to start the week. That’s the kind of football betting that can get me on the right track. I just need a bunch more games that are impossible to pick incorrectly.

Last week: 7-6-1
This week (thus far): 0-0-1
Lock of the week: 2-8
Season: 64-80-4

Home team in CAPS

Falcons (-1.5) over BUCCANEERS
I was sure I’d pick against the Falcons this week. They have been terrible, but to pick against them would mean that I think the Bucs can win two games in a row, and that seems like a near impossibility.

BILLS (-1) over Jets
The Jets won their last game, so clearly they will lose their next game.

Lions (-2.5) over STEELERS
I don’t believe the Steelers can hang with a good offense.

Redskins (+4.5) over EAGLES
Since my plan of picking my lock of the week against the Redskins to ensure a Washington victory stopped working, I guess it is okay for me to pick the Redskins again. The Eagles have been terrible at home, failing to win or cover in Philadelphia this season.

BEARS (-3) over Ravens
I love that all Bears fans hate Jay Cutler and are very happy that Josh McCown is back at quarterback. Probably not a good sign for their playoff hopes when the town thinks the team has a better chance to win with a lifetime 14-20 QB.

BENGALS (-6) over Browns
Home field rules the AFC North.

Raiders (+7) over TEXANS
The Texans shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown over anyone this season. That is ridiculous.

JAGUARS (+7.5) over Cardinals
Arizona is terrible on the road. Yes, I realize Jacksonville is terrible everywhere, but I think this line is about a half point too high.

Chargers (-1.5) over DOLPHINS
I think this whole saga in Miami has really affected the Dolphins quality of play. Most importantly they’ve lost two offensive line starters, but the distraction also seems like it is just too much for them.

SEAHAWKS (-12) over Vikings
Christian Ponder playing in Seattle? Nothing else needs to be said.

SAINTS (-3) over 49ers
Lock of the Week
The Saints are really, really good in New Orleans and the 49ers just proved last week that they might be a bit of a fraud. In the Superdome the Saints have won by 7, 24, 21, 18, and 32. The 49ers might be their toughest competition yet, but there is no way the Saints don’t win this game by at least a touchdown.

GIANTS (-4.5) over Packers
I swear to God, if the Giants end up in the Super Bowl…

Chiefs (+8) over BRONCOS
Despite being 9-0, no one really respects the Chiefs that much. I will give them at least a bit of respect and think they can keep this game close.

Patriots (+2.5) over PANTHERS
Still not sure I’ve bought into the Panthers just yet. They need one more win for me to believe.

Week 11 Thursday Night Special

No time for a real post. But I want to note I had a winning week!

Last week: 7-6-1
Lock of the week: 2-8
Season: 64-80-3

Home team in CAPS

Colts (-3) over TITANS

The Colts are nearly impossible to figure out and have shown they are 100% capable of getting beaten on the road by anyone. But they've also looked like one of the top 5 teams in the league at times. So I'll just bet against Ryan Fitzpatrick for now.  See you tomorrow with the rest of the picks.

Week 10 Picks and Far Too Much Writing about the Dolphins Situation

Last week I write about the struggles of the NFC East and they go out and win all of their games on Sunday. Sure, they were all playing against average or below average opponents, but it still makes me think I have a power to make the opposite of whatever I say happen.

Last Week: 5-8
Guaranteed Loss of the Week (formerly Lock of the Week): 1-8
Season: 57-74-2

Home team in CAPS

VIKINGS (+2.5) over Redskins
Lock of the Week

The Redskins specialize in losing to bad teams on the road following wins. It is one of their best tricks, to find a way to get your hopes up and then squash them. Also, fun meaningless fact, teams that play on Thursday road games following an overtime game are 1-11 all time.

Jaguars (+12) over TITANS

All the statistics I can find make me think I should pick the Titans, but for some reason I think the Jags will hang around in this one. Probably because I, and 80% of the world, picked the Titans in survivor.

Eagles (+1) over PACKERS

Philly really lucked out here getting to play against Seneca Wallace. If they were in Philly they’d probably still lose, but somehow they are one of the best road teams in the league.

Bills (+3) over STEELERS
E.J. Manuel is back! Excitement!

GIANTS (-7) over Raiders
The Raiders might find a way to go 0-4 against the NFC East, a truly difficult task.

COLTS (-9.5) over Rams
The Rams have been surprisingly competent with Kellen Clemens (which has more to do with their defense than offense) and the Colts seem to like playing close games. But still picking Indy.

FALCONS (+6) over Seahawks
I can’t get away from picking Atlanta and I don’t know why. They have been terrible, but I can’t quit them.

RAVENS (+1.5) over Bengals
In games between two AFC North teams, the home team is 5-0 this season.

BEARS (+2.5) over Lions
The Bears tend to have more luck slowing down Calvin Johnson than most teams, holding him under 100 yards for four straight games and seven of their last eight.

49ERS (-6) over Panthers
Two of the hottest teams in the league, but both have been feasting on subpar teams. Of their collective nine wins in a row, exactly zero of them have come against teams with a winning record.

CARDINALS (-3) over Texans
We all believe the Cardinals are not a good team correct? Well look at their home games this season – wins over the Lions, Panthers and Falcons, with their only loss coming against the Seahawks.

CHARGERS (+7) over Broncos
San Diego is another team much better at home than on the road this season. I don’t think they’ll beat the Broncos, but it would not surprise me to see them keep things close as the Broncos pass defense has not been stellar this year.

SAINTS (-6.5) over Cowboys
New Orleans is nearly unstoppable at home and should bounce back from their loss with a very strong game.

BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Dolphins
I was ready to write a short paragraph about how people can’t really be that surprised by the things Richie Incognito said and did to Jonathan Martin. The idea being, look at Incognito, the way he carries himself and even just the way he looks – he is clearly a dick. And while I still hold a lot of that to be true, it got me to thinking about bullying and competitive sports. Also, it is important to state that we do not know all the facts and should probably stop jumping to conclusions for a while. (Feel free to stop reading at any time after this, I'm not really sure my thoughts go anywhere)

First off, everyone else on the Dolphins seems to love Incognito. I’m not saying that makes anything he did any better, but it is interesting to see teammates rushing to his support rather than supporting Martin.

I’m positive that Incognito is fiercely loyal and defensive of his teammates. If someone on another team messed with Martin on the field, I have no doubt Incognito would have been the first guy in the opponents face, and that earns you respect with your peers. Again, that doesn’t make what he said or did any better, but it’s worth remembering when thinking about what type of guy he is.

Now, I too would defend my teammates against any opponent, I think that is more common than it is uncommon. But, that same confrontational attitude carries over to the locker room in pro sports. I don’t fully understand professional sports culture. Never will. I played and coached club sports in college and that’s about as competitive as I’ve ever gotten in my sporting life.

Still, it is clear to me there is a wide range of methods in how to approach and motivate a team or teammate. Different people respond to different types of motivation. Some players want to be yelled at all the time, broken down, forced to better themselves to gain approval. Others do not have the mindset for that type of challenge and need a softer touch with constant positive reinforcement. Neither way is wrong, but you need to realize which people operate in which way.

It seems pro sports always trends toward the machismo, prove your manhood, breed strength through confrontation mindset. This macho culture leads to bullying, players treating teammates like dicks either to “toughen them up” or so they can “earn” their spot on the team and be welcomed to the club. I’ve made fun of teammates before, thinking in my head that it is coming from a good place, but there is a level of harassment that you don’t cross.

Obviously players and the coaches who asked Incognito to “toughen up” Martin wanted different results. They wanted Martin to fight back, to show a “nasty” side. Some may think Incognito ultimately went too far, but it seems few are of that opinion. It appears clear now, Martin isn’t that type of guy.

Maybe that attitude is still needed to succeed in such a competitive environment, but I doubt it. You can and I believe should, admonish players for mistakes. But it seems more and more that hazing and bullying doesn’t do anything to make you a stronger team.

I’ve bullied people before, been bullied, and am still friends with people who are currently bullies. Some bully for their own amusement, some use it as a defense mechanism about their own insecurities, and others believe they are trying to accomplish a good result – an ends justify the means approach. What is important is to see how someone reacts to bullying and then responding accordingly.

Real bullies, like it would seem Incognito is, take it to another level when their target can’t handle it well. And that is the problem most outsiders have with this situation. It seems the culture of pro sports, and the idea behind this incident, was to push Martin until he snapped, hoping he would snap with aggression. But not everyone is wired to punch their problems in the face. Martin snapped by leaving the team and filing a complaint. No one should hold him in disregard because of that fact.

At the same time I don’t know how much blame to assign to Incognito, how much to assign to the Dolphins coaches and others players, and how much to assign to the culture of professional sports, because it is a culture I have never experienced and don’t understand. Still, it seems to me like this is a message that maybe that culture could use a little change.

Week 9 NFL Picks

With the Redskins struggling mightily it is time for me to look elsewhere for football pleasure. Much as it was last year, most of this is derived from the failings of others. And while some might have pride in their division being the best, I truly enjoy the ineptitude of the NFC East.

The Cowboys loss to the Lions last week was great and took the sting out of watching the Redskins offense soil itself in the second half. It’s exciting to know that they can think of new ways to blow fourth quarter leads.

The Eagles explosive offense has totaled under 300 yards of total offense in each of the last two weeks and committed six turnovers in that span. Yes, a large chunk of that has to do with being forced to play Matt Barkley at quarterback for long periods of time, but still nice to see the Chip Kelly experiment slowed down.

And the Giants, although they’ve won two straight and may have figured out how to not turn the ball over every six minutes, they still have the second worst point differential in the league, worse than the Buccaneers.

In gambling news, I had my best performance of the season last week, but don’t worry I still missed my lock of the week by a substantial margin.

Last Week: 9-4
Guaranteed Loss of the Week (aka Lock of the Week): 1-7
Season: 52-66-2

Home team in CAPS

Bengals (-3) over DOLPHINS

Somehow this game opened as an even line. If I had been paying attention I would have bet actual money on it. I suppose you could take my confidence in the Bengals as a good sign that the Dolphins will win the game, but I don’t see it. The Dolphins have lost four straight and the Bengals have won four straight, I’m much less confident at three points, but still taking Cincinnati.

Falcons (+7.5) over PANTHERS

Just seems like too much respect for Carolina.

COWBOYS (-10.5) over Vikings

Dallas is certainly capable of beating bad teams by large margins and the Vikings qualify. Also, does anyone know who will be starting at QB for the Vikings? Better question, does it matter or does anyone care?

Saints (-6) over JETS

I don’t understand the Jets at all, they might somehow win this game, or they could lose by 30. Neither result would completely shock me.

Titans (-3) over RAMS

Is Jeff Fisher playing his old team a big deal? I don’t feel like anyone really cares, but maybe they do.

Chiefs (-3) over BILLS

Chargers (-1) over REDSKINS

Lock of the Week
That makes four straight road favorites I’ve picked. NOT A GOOD BETTING STRATEGY. Somehow I can’t stop myself though. At this point I'm using lock of the week as a jinx weapon, placing it on a game I do not want to go as I predict.

RAIDERS (-2.5) over Eagles

Philly is much better on the road than they are at home. With Foles under center instead of Barkley the offense should be able to move again. The Raiders had less than 100 yards passing last week. All signs the Eagles should win this game, yet I’m trusting my gut – a move which has repeatedly let me down time and time again.

SEAHAWKS (-16.5) over Buccaneers

The coach players love to play for against the coach every single player hates. I’m sure this will go well for Tampa.

BROWNS (+2.5) over Ravens

I had to stop taking road favorites, had to. In Jason Campbell we trust!

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Steelers
Remember the 2001 Patriots that didn’t ever really look that good, but kept winning games? I hope this team is not a repeat of that.

Colts (-2.5) over TEXANS

I lied! I’m taking another road favorite. What is wrong with me?

PACKERS (-10.5) over Bears

No way the Bears defense slows down the Packers enough to stay in this game.

Week 8 NFL Picks

I forgot/didn’t have time to write my picks up on Thursday, so whoops I guess, but I did pick the game on twitter, so I’m counting it, because just look at the traveshamockery that is my record.

Last week: 7-8
Lock of the Week/Shoe-in of the Week: 1-6
Season: 43-62-2

Home team in CAPS

Panthers (-7) over BUCCANEERS

Greg Schiano has become the most hated unsuccessful person in football I can remember in my lifetime really. Also congrats to Tampa, who has now quit on two coaches in three years, really impressive.

Jaguars (+16.5) over 49ers

The whole NFL games in London thing makes very little sense to me. I get the desire to create an international fan base, but I still think it’s stupid. First off, if they are trying to create a following in London, they could probably do better than giving them a Vikings game and a Jaguars game this season. No one in any country wants to watch either of those teams.

Then, in addition, they are giving them Jags games for four straight years. One, that sucks if you are a fan with tickets in Jacksonville as you lose out on a home game each year. Two, it sucks for the Jags, who basically lose their home field for one game a year. And three, what are they trying to do? It almost seems like they are trying to create a market for an NFL team based in London, which would be a horrendous idea. You can’t play a regular season with teams as far as 8 hours and 5,000 miles apart from one another, it will not work.

LIONS (-3) over Cowboys

My guess is that no NFC East team can win three straight games.

Giants (+5.5) over EAGLES

Luckily the Giants dug themselves a big enough hole that even if they play semi-competent football from here on out, they will not make the playoffs.

Browns (+7.5) over CHIEFS

I’m not sure if there is another quarterback quite like Jason Campbell. He was mediocre for years in Washington and never won much, yet nearly everyone in D.C. really wants him to do well now that he has moved on and is rooting for him to get a chance to succeed. I think it is safe to say he is better than Brandon Weeden anyways, go Jason!

SAINTS (-11) over Bills

The Saints cover spreads at home, it’s what they do.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Dolphins

Remember when Miami started the season 3-0 and people were talking about how they were a legit team? It’s okay if you don’t, because it seems so unlikely when you look at the Dolphins now.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Jets

I haven’t actually watched any Jets football this season. Is Geno Smith decent, lucky, good, irrelevant or what? I feel like I should be hearing a lot more about a rookie QB in New York than I am.

RAIDERS (+2.5) over Steelers

Despite two straight wins, I am not ready to believe in the Steelers in any way.

BRONCOS (-12) over Redskins

One win and Redskins fans start thinking they have a chance in Denver.

Falcons (+2.5) over CARDINALS

Pick that is guaranteed to lose
*Also known as Lock of the Week

I know the Falcons are down and injured, but the Cardinals still rely on Carson Palmer to drive their offense. Carson Palmer is still terrible.

Packers (-9) over VIKINGS

This week’s Minnesota QB carousel has landed on Christian Ponder. Always good when you try three guys and end up back on the first one.

Seahawks (-11) over RAMS

Here is my question. If you have so little faith in you backup QB that you immediately call Brett Favre after your starter goes down, then why didn’t you focus on improving the backup quarterback position before you needed him to play? Was the philosophy, “We’re fine with Kellen Clemens, unless he actually has to play of course. Then we are going to panic and try to find someone else to take his place.”

Week 7 - It can't get any worse

Last week my picks went from worthless to downright comically terrible. I challenge anyone to pick as poorly as I did. This kind of ineptitude is rarely achieved and you should all take a minute to appreciate it.

I’d say more about how terrible I am, but I’ve been doing a new thing this week called being really busy at work, so there is not enough time. As a result these write ups will be fairly short as well.

Last Week: 4-11
Lock of the Week: 1-5
Season: 36-54-2

Home team in CAPS

CARDINALS (+5.5) over Seahawks

I recently heard the NFL is considering expanding Thursday Night Football into a doubleheader. Great idea!

Do the players hate it? Yep.

How about the coaches? They also hate it.

Do fans enjoy it? No, not it all.

But do people still watch it and does it make money? Absolutely.

Let’s double it up then!

Patriots (-4) over JETS

Bostonians got two of the greatest come from behind wins in any sport on Sunday when the Pats beat the Saints at the last second and David Ortiz stepped on the hearts of the Tigers. If there is any sports area that hasn’t seen its share of good times and luck it’s Boston, good for those guys, they never win anything.

Chargers (-7.5) over JAGUARS

San Diego is pretty terrible on the road, but the Jags are getting less than 10 points. You have to take those opportunities when they are given to you.

CHIEFS (-6) over Texans

Shoe In of the Week

The lock wasn’t working, so we’re switching it up.

The Texans are starting Case Keenum. The one good thing I can say about Case Keenum is that the only year I played fantasy college football, he scored me a billion points. Another fun fact about Keenum (okay, the first fact was not fun) – when he proposed to his girlfriend he presented her a Bible engraved with her married name. Not saying that’s good or bad, just saying we are different people, Case and I.

LIONS (-3) over Bengals

Cincinnati is not good on the road, Detroit is good at home. I used these two pieces of complex statistical analysis to make my pick.

Bills (+8) over DOLPHINS

Don’t worry everyone, Thad Lewis should be able to play.

Bears (even) over REDSKINS

It’s gonna be sweet when the Redskins give a top 10 pick to the Rams.

Cowboys (+3) over EAGLES

My friends who are Eagles fans are pretty emphatic that there is no way Philly can beat the Cowboys. I tend to agree. Romo should carve up their secondary after not doing much against the Skins.

PANTHERS (-6) over Rams

I think this line is too high, but I am confident the Panthers will win. I am also fairly certain the Panthers can’t win close games. Therefore, they are going to win by a comfortable margin.

FALCONS (-7) over Buccaneers

Let’s not sleep on Tampa Bay when we talk about terrible teams.

49ers (-4) over TITANS

Does anyone know how the Titans have managed to be a respectable football team? They are somehow in the position that if Jake Locker comes back, they can contend for a playoff spot. Chris Johnson has been beyond horrendous. I guess it’s their defense, but who do they have on defense? Research indicates they have a good secondary, so good for them.

PACKERS (-10) over Browns

With the variety of completely unknown receivers the Packers will be trotting out this week it doesn’t make a lot of sense to expect them to cover a double digit spread against a team with a stout defense. But I trust Brandon Weeden will find a way.

Ravens (+1.5) over STEELERS

Despite the win, Pittsburgh is still pretty bad at football.

Broncos (-6.5) over COLTS

Let’s just all watch this game on mute – possibly while giving Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck lookalikes hand jobs.

Vikings (+3.5) over GIANTS

It is not that I believe Josh Freeman makes the Vikings a better team. It is much more that I believe the Giants should not be favored by more than a field goal against just about anyone.

2013 - Week 6

One reason I don’t think I’m a very good gambler is that I struggle with decisions of any magnitude. I never fully trust my instincts and typically find ways to argue both sides against each other, keeping me from truly believing in something 100% all the way.

When it comes to football I enter each week (at least this year) with few strong opinions and just hoping to get some things right. This keeps me from gambling large sums of money most of the time, which I guess is good, but makes one wonder what I’m doing writing NFL picks every week and why anyone would ever read it. Of course no one is coming here for real advice. And if you want, you can always pick against all of my picks (data supports this as a lucrative gambling method).

Last week: 6-8
Lock of the week: 1-4
Season: 32-43-2

Home team in CAPS

BEARS (-7.5) over Giants

I bet when the NFL Network made the Thursday night schedule they were super excited about this game. Two big market teams that had recent playoff success. Except now the Giants are 0-5 and just lost their starting running back who had not been producing and are forced to turn to an even less productive runner. The Bears defense stands a 50% chance of being the highest scoring fantasy player in the game.

Raiders (+9) over CHIEFS

With Pryor, the Raiders have put up a good fight in all their games and Kansas City is not the type of team to blow people out of the water, so I think this will be closer than the spread.

BUCS (+1) over Eagles

This could be a good bad game (but it will definitely be a bad game). The Eagles have one of the best offenses and the Bucs have one of the best defense, so that will be fun. But on the other side of the ball, the Bucs cannot move and the Eagles cannot stop anything, so something’s gotta give there. When in doubt, pick against the NFC East.

RAVENS (+3) over Packers

Green Bay is 0-2 on the road, so them being favored by three points doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

BROWNS (+2.5) over Lions

I want to keep riding the home underdog, but am I supposed to believe in Cleveland? Am I picking Cleveland? Fool, this will never work.

VIKINGS (-1.5) over Panthers

Minnesota could soon have a three-way mid-season quarterback controversy, which should be fun. Ponder, Cassel, and Freeman in a race for who can be the most mediocre without losing the game by himself!

Rams (+7.5) over TEXANS

I do not feel comfortable betting on the Rams two weeks in a row, but the Texans have not won a game by a significant margin this entire season and are getting close to turning to T.J. Yates. Hard to pick them to win by more than a touchdown.

JETS (-1.5) over Steelers

Lock of the Week
Looking at these teams on paper, there is no reason that the spread should be this close. Statistically, the Steelers have a worse offense and defense, yet this line says they would be favored on a neutral field? I’m not buying it, this line is still set on expectations, not reality.

Bengals (-7) over BILLS

The Bills STARTING quarterback is Thaddeus Lewis. He was on the practice squad less than a week ago.

SEAHAWKS (-13.5) over Titans

I still believe that the Seahawks at home are the best team in the NFL. I think they will win all games in Seattle by an average of 20 points. 13.5 is less than 20, ergo, my pick.

BRONCOS (-27.5) over Jaguars

I’m sure you are all aware of how large of a mismatch this game is, and if you weren't, you could look at the line and determine that is a game of historically vs. historically bad. It is just a stupid big line, but still I think the Broncos are the logical choice, which is absolutely insane. The best way to sum everything about these teams up is with this infographic from SB Nation.

49ERS (-10.5) over Cardinals

Three double-digit favorites and I’m picking them all. I’m sure nothing could possiblie go wrong.

PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Saints

There is a good chance this will be Gronk’s first game back for the Pats and it just so happens to be against the team with the current best tight end in the league in Jimmy Graham. I could see either guy (or both) having an “I’m the best” statement game.

Redskins (+5.5) over COWBOYS

My philosophy is if one of these two teams is ever favored by more than four points against the other, take the underdog (also the Skins have covered the last six spreads between the two).

Colts (-1.5) over CHARGERS

How big of a football fan would you have to be to choose Indianapolis as your home over San Diego? I can't really think of an amount that makes sense.

2013 - Week 5

First, to what everyone is worried about. I promise to not make any Congress or government shutdown jokes in my column this week. Just like those clowns in Congress promised to …. WHOA! Close one. #Politics!

As we enter week 5 of the season I have yet to be home for an entire Sunday and just watched football all day long. I’ve been close, but I have not been home from 1-8 yet on any day. And you know what? I haven’t missed it.

So my passion for football is waning and I rarely bet actual money on games anymore, but I think you should still read my picks because really, what else are you going to do? Be productive at your job? I doubt it.

Last week: 9-6
Lock of the week: 1-3
Season: 26-35-2

Home team in CAPS

Bills (+3.5) over BROWNS

As with most Thursday games, no one should watch this game. I may not watch another Thursday night game until the Redskins play on Nov. 7. My viewership of this game aside, somehow the winner will be 3-2. Yes, either the Buffalo Bills or Cleveland Browns will have a winning record.

TITANS (+3) over Chiefs

Oh right, Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting.

Chiefs (-3) over TITANS

Ravens (+3) over DOLPHINS

I finally decide to respect the Dolphins last week and they do what I had been waiting for them to do the first three weeks. My mistake Miami, you are who I thought you were.

RAMS (-11.5) over Jaguars

This line is silly. The Rams are NOT a good football team and yet they are favored by double-digit points because Jacksonville is just beyond bad. I’m not sure what line Vegas could make that would be big enough for me to place money on Jacksonville. I would pick them if they were given 20 points (again, this is to the Rams, a bad team), but I would not feel comfortable about it in any way.

At this point can’t Jacksonville just give in and sign Tim Tebow? While they are at it can they sign Brett Favre too? Just put those two guys out there and watch them “have fun” and “be leaders” and “know how to win.” After it doesn’t get much more football and America than Brett Favre and Tim Tebow.

Sure, I know what you are saying, no team runs two QBs at the same time. And one of these guys is too old and the other is not very good. But if anyone can make it work it is these two, right? I mean, they are winners. America! Jesus! Football! Gunslinging! Dedication! Tears! Playing the game the right way!

Patriots (+1) over BENGALS

Lock of the Week
The Bengals beat the Packers and then followed that up with a loss to the Browns. Marvin Lewis has never made sense. Maybe they’ll beat the Pats by 15, maybe they’ll get shut out. I don’t know. All I do know about the Bengals is that if they make the playoffs, they will lose in the first round.

Seahawks (-3) over COLTS

I’ll start by saying that I think the Seahawks have been the best team in the NFC to this point. They are unbeatable at home, I have no doubt in that, but I’m still not 100% sold on their ability on the road. They really should have lost last week in Houston, but they somehow stole that game. I would not be 100% shocked if they lost to the Colts. That said, the Seahawks are still 4-0 against the spread and I’ll keep picking them at least until they are 9-0 and favored in Atlanta.

PACKERS (-7) over Lions

Don’t bet on the Packers or the Lions. Do bet on the over (53.5 points).

BEARS (even) over Saints

Before we get caught up in how good the Saints have looked, let’s remember that they have played three out of four games at home. In their one game on the road they nearly lost to the train wreck that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Eagles (+2) over GIANTS

If the Giants can’t score on the Eagles, then it is all over for them. The last two weeks I've thought the Giants are gonna snap out of it and been burned. Do I still think that this week? Maybe a part of me, but I can in no way justify picking them again at this point (unless of course they were playing the Jags).

Panthers (-2) over CARDINALS

Chargers (-4) over RAIDERS

I choose not to write about these games. I feel good about my decision.

Broncos (-7.5) over COWBOYS

NFC East! 8-8 looking more and more like a division winning record.

49ERS (-6.5) over Texans

49er safety Donte Whitner has changed his name to Donte Hitner. This is like 5% funny, 2% cool, and 93% stupid, but I bet it gains him fame and makes him money, so I guess good work? Terrible joke time -Matt Schaub should change his name to Matt Inopportune Time to Throw an Interceptionaub.

FALCONS (-10) over Jets

Atlanta is 1-3 and desperately need to beat the crap out of someone to both make themselves feel better and to show that they are still a contender. Enter the New York Jets.

2013 - Week 4

At the beginning of the year I was convinced that the NFC was way better than the AFC. Turns out, I’m an idiot. There are only five NFC teams with a winning record currently, obviously that will change as the season progresses, but the depth I thought existed might not be there.

So what is wrong with the once-powerful NFC? The Packers, Falcons, and 49ers (arguably the best three teams in the NFC last year) are all 1-2 and have not looked like Super Bowl contenders. One similarity between the three; none of their defenses have looked strong, which is of particular concern for the 49ers who had one of the best defenses over the past two seasons. I expect at least one, if not all three of them to turn it around, but it is also likely one of them will miss the playoffs as there are major flaws present in each team.

The Seahawks meanwhile have proven themselves to be the class of the conference (after I foolishly predicted them to regress) and appear headed to the Super Bowl to face the Broncos.

Ultimately though, there have only been three games played so far. At this point last year the best two teams in the league looked to be the Falcons and Texans and neither made it to the Super Bowl.

Last Week: 6-9-1
Lock of the Week: 1-2
Season: 17-29-2

Home team in CAPS

Parks and Rec over THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Instead of watching the entirety of another Thursday night football game in which at least one team seems completely unprepared for the fact that they are not playing on Sunday watch the smartest comedy on TV. Then, if you want, you can turn to football at 9.

49ers (-3) over RAMS

This game could be considered make or break for the 49ers. You could argue they have been the worst team in the league the past two weeks (okay, you could argue they’ve been the second worst team after the Jaguars). And now they are playing a team they could not beat last season, but I can’t see them falling completely apart and I think they’ll find a way to get the offense going again.

VIKINGS (+2.5) over Steelers

The Vikings have proven that they are at least capable of scoring points on a regular basis. The Steelers, not so much.

Ravens (-3) over BILLS

Lock of the Week

Essentially half of the Bills starting defense is questionable this week, not a good sign. And yes, I'm going to try to ride the Ravens as my lock of the week twice in a row. And no, I don't feel good about it.

Bengals (-4) over BROWNS

Brian Hoyer actually led the Browns to victory last week and looked decent in doing so. Still, one decent week does not force us to forget that Cleveland is still Cleveland.

Colts (-8.5) over JAGUARS

There is no appropriate metric to explain how bad the Jaguars offense is. But I’ll throw a few thing out there. They have 155 less yards of offense than the 31st ranked team. They have been sacked a league leading 15 times in three weeks. They average a league worst 2.4 yards per carry. They have punted a league high 26 times. They have fans who held a rally in an attempt to get the team to sign Tim Tebow. Essentially, Jacksonville is the NFL reincarnation of the Washington Generals, the team designed to lose all their games to the Harlem Globetrotters in an embarrassing fashion.

Seahawks (-2.5) over TEXANS

Seattle is scary good. This week will test if they can go on the road and beat a solid team, if they do then I’m not sure who is stopping them.

Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS

The best part of the Cardinals is their secondary, so rookie quarterback Mike Glennon might have a tough time in his first NFL start.

Bears (+3) over LIONS

If Nate Burleson was a member of the Cleveland Browns I think the world might have broken in half on Tuesday. Breaking your arm trying to save a pizza is already a nearly unbelievable, comical injury. It also would have been the most Cleveland thing of all time. As is Detroit is also a pretty good fit for unfathomable cartoonish failure. This is of course the same team that a few years ago had a coach arrested for driving naked through a fast-food drive-thru window.

Giants (+4.5) over CHIEFS

As entertaining as it has been to watch the Giants fail all over the place, there is simply no way they can keep up with their current rate of turnovers. They have turned the ball over on 30% of their drives. Eli Manning will put together a solid game soon. Or maybe not? Maybe he's granted all of his Manning powers to Peyton his season.

TITANS (-3.5) over Jets

Both of these teams are 2-1, but Tennessee looks far more capable as a football team. I think I'm not alone in waiting for some sort of Jets implosion, but if they can pull of this road upset they deserve some credit.

CHARGERS (+2) over Cowboys

Philip Rivers and Tony Romo have been a bit too consistent to this point. And by consistent I mean neither of them has had a truly awful game yet. Good chance it happens here.

Redskins (-3) over RAIDERS

The Redskins have shown me nothing to believe they should be favored on the road against a team with a win. In fact, Reggie Bush recently said, "We felt like last week (talking about vs. the Redskins), I could sit that one out and still get the win." Sad, but true. However, it is time to give thanks for the Raiders, who are in predictable Oakland trouble after not checking QB Terrelle Pryor for a concussion, putting him back in the game, then finally realizing he had a concussion and taking him out. Not making matters any better, Pryor tweeting that he didn’t remember the play.

BRONCOS (-10.5) over Eagles

The league’s best receiving corps against one of the worst secondaries. Could make for a slaughter, but when it is all said and done the Eagles might still only be one game out of first. NFC East power!

FALCONS (-2) over Patriots

Atlanta is 1-2 while New England is 3-0, but both of these teams have looked similarly week, failing to achieve the offensive success that helped drive them to success last year. By the eye test they are playing at the same level, so I'll take the home team.

Dolphins (+6.5) over SAINTS

For the record, I’m still not sold on the Dolphins, but you have to give them a bit of respect in terms of the line here. While they may not be playoff good, they've at least proven they are highly competitive.

2013 - Week 3

Now it feels like football season. The Redskins are struggling on the field and I am struggling to pick any games correctly, much less get more than half of them correct. This is my comfort zone, sub-par production.

And now with two weeks behind us we can start to actually learn some facts about football teams. The Jaguars could be historically bad, but not to be outdone the Browns are doing their best to stay neck and neck in the race for last place. The two first-round picks they planned on building their offense around last season, Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson, will not be suiting up for Cleveland on Sunday.

Weeden has an injured thumb, but his run as the starter might be over and certainly won’t last past this year. And Richardson was dealt to the Colts, leaving the Browns to rely on Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon as their top offensive threats.

I’m not saying Richardson was a stud, his yards per carry certainly left something to be desired and maybe Cleveland realized they couldn't get any better than a 1st round pick for him, but it is clear they have decided to punt on this season. I mean, instead of turning to the serviceable Jason Campbell, they have opted to go with Brian Hoyer at QB.

Everyone mark your calendars for December 1, when the Jaguars travel to Cleveland in what could be the worst professional football game ever played. My fingers are crossed for the first game in history with more punts than total yardage.

Last week: 6-10
Season: 11-20-1
Lock of the Week: 0-2 (I have lost all confidence in my lock for the time being)

Home team in CAPS

EAGLES (-3) over Chiefs 

I’m excited for the point in this game when Andy Reid challenges a play and loses or mismanages the clock and the Philly crowd goes wild. Kansas City’s defense will offer the first real test to Chip Kelly’s offense, but the Chiefs defensive stats are a bit out of whack thus far this season as they played the Jaguars in Week 1, which hardly counts, of course they allowed next to zero yards.

Chargers (+3) over TITANS 

I expect a turnover explosion in this game. The Titans have yet to turn it over and Philip Rivers only has one interception (albeit at the perfectly worst time possible), neither of those things will last.

VIKINGS (-6.5) over Browns 

I don’t think I’m allowed to pick the Browns after calling them as bad as the Jaguars.

Buccaneers (+7) over PATRIOTS 

Both teams have played two close games. Sure the Pats are 2-0 and the Bucs are 0-2 and look like they are on the brink of disaster with Josh Freeman, but until New England shows it can score, I’m not picking them to blow anyone out.

RAVENS (+2.5) over Texans
Lock of the Week (sorry Ravens) 

Baltimore hasn't looked good, but neither has Houston. I’ll take the defending champions getting points at home.

Rams (+4) over COWBOYS 

Looking at both of these teams and their rushing production (they average 62 and 68 yards per game on the ground) I was prepared to write about how terrible they both are at running the football, but as it turns out they are only the sixth and eighth worst rushing teams in the league. Teams are just inept at running now. I understand there has been a shift toward the passing game, but seriously what happened to running backs? The Giants and Steelers each average under 40 yards per game on the ground. That is unreal. Anyways, I’ll take the Rams because the NFC East is awful.

Cardinals (+7) over SAINTS

I’m not really sure that the Saints are anything but a slightly better version of the Lions. And Arizona just beat the Lions. Of course there is always the threat that Carson Palmer could go “Carson Palmer” at any moment and the Saints win by 20.

Lions (+2) over REDSKINS

If feels both nice and depressing to no longer have to worry about having expectations for the Redskins and reverting back to my normal cynicism.

BENGALS (+3) over Packers 

Home underdogs! Also, while good, Green Bay is not as good as they looked against the Redskins. Don’t expect James Starks to go for over 100 against a defense that knows that you are supposed to tackle the player with the ball.

Giants (+1) over PANTHERS 

As much as I would love to see the Giants fall to 0-3 and the NFC East continue to be completely worthless (let’s go Redskins in the playoffs at 8-8!), I don’t see New York losing here.

Falcons (+2.5) over DOLPHINS 

I’ll tell you who I don’t believe in – the Miami Dolphins.

49ERS (-10) over Colts 

I’ll tell you who lost to the Miami Dolphins – the Indianapolis Colts. And Trent Richardson with one full day of practice isn't gonna make much of a difference here.

Hastily made photoshop!

SEAHAWKS (-19.5) over Jaguars 

There will be a definite feel of nostalgia as an amped up Pete Carroll beats an inferior opponent by 40 points at home. Speaking of Pete Carroll, how does that guy have so much energy? He’s the second oldest coach in the league, but acts like the youngest. He’s 62 and has easily twice as much energy as me at half his age. He looks like a douchey-college kid who was just handed an NFL team to coach by his super rich, team-owning Dad.

JETS (-2.5) over Bills 

Although I feel like Buffalo is probably the better team because they have at least one capable skill position player, I’ll take the home field here.

Bears (-2.5) over STEELERS 

Not to pile on the Steelers week after week, but I really enjoy everyone realizing Ben Roethlisberger is not that great (although it is not as if any quarterback could get things done on that offense).

Raiders (+15) over BRONCOS 

I already picked one team that is favored by a comical amount of points, I don’t think I can do it twice in the same week. If you teased the Broncos and Seahawks, each team would still have to win by more than a touchdown for you to win your bet. I can’t imagine that situation happens to often in the NFL, the league that is supposed to be all about parity.

2013 - Week 2

Holy Shit Thursday Night Football is stupid.

I know I banged this drum pretty much all year last season, but I can’t help but to bring it up again. First of all, I don’t want to write my picks on Thursday (particularly this Thursday, suffering from a severe case of melted face). Secondly, I don’t want to feel like I need to watch a football game tonight, but ultimately I will and I’ll probably stay up until the end of the game and not get enough sleep because I’m an idiot and I do
whatever the fuck the NFL tells me to do.

Third, it ruins fantasy football. Players come off waivers on Wednesday and you more or less need your lineup set by Thursday. Obviously you can make changes after the Thursday game, but it just makes everything annoying. On top of that, survivor leagues – I need my pick in by Thursday now? Most teams play on Sunday and haven’t yet given an indication of what players might miss the game due to injury, yet we are still forced to make decisions now. Why not just pick all your teams before the start of the season and see what happens?

Back to betting – I really sucked it up to start off the season. Just impressive ineptitude on my part. If I were a smart, informed gambler, this would be a week to make money. Week 2 always has funky lines as the oddsmakers are unsure if they should trust results from the season openers or trust their original expectations. But of course, I’m a terrible gambler and if you are reading these picks to make financial decisions then I feel sorry for you.

Last week: 5-10-1
Season: 5-10-1
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Home team in CAPS

Jets (+11) over PATRIOTS

This is not an endorsement of the Jets. I think this line is too high. The Patriots really struggled last week in Buffalo and are really lacking receiving options, especially now with Vereen and Amendola out. The Jets are still bad, but they proved they are not quite as comically bad as many people had assumed they would be last week.

Chargers (+7.5) over EAGLES 

If this game was played in Week 1, I think the Eagles would have been favored by about four points. Despite a strong showing, I’m not sold on Chip Kelly’s offense as a powerhouse just yet.

RAVENS (-6.5) over Browns

I am, however; sold on the Browns being terrible.

COLTS (-3) over Dolphins 

Lock of the Week

This line opened as a pick ‘em, which is mind boggling. Sure the Colts struggled with the Raiders last week (who by all accounts should be worse than awful), but the Colts aren’t a team that blows people out. Pretty sure they will beat the Dolphins by a score.

TEXANS (-9) over Titans 

The Texans offense is significantly better than the lifeless corpse that is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite winning last week, the Titans offense remains useless.

Panthers (-3) over BILLS 

This bores me, is anyone up for a game of basketball?

FALCONS (-6.5) over Rams 

No way Atlanta doesn’t score a ton of points at home after looking fairly average against the Saints.

Redskins (+7.5) over PACKERS 

When this opened at 6.5 points I was all set to take Green Bay. Crazy how one point will change things. I hope that RG3 playing well in the second half vs. Philly was a sign of getting back into the groove and finding the speed of the game, not just a result of the terrible prevent defense by the Eagles.

Cowboys (+3) over CHIEFS 

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars last week, so we still know absolutely nothing about their ability as a football team.

BEARS (-6) over Vikings 

In years when we look back will we say Christian Ponder was the worst quarterback to ever lead a team to the playoff or will we say Joe Webb was the worst quarterback to ever start a playoff game? Or both? Probably both right?

Saints (-3) over BUCCANEERS

Even last year when they were bad and sans Sean Payton the Saints beat Tampa twice, so… yeah.

Lions (-1.5) over CARDINALS

Picking the Lions means that I’ve now taken every single road favorite this week, this is not a smart betting strategy, yet here we are.

RAIDERS (-5.5) over Jaguars 

If you had told me even one week ago that I would ever pick the Raiders as five-and-a-half point favorites this season I would have probably vomited on myself.

GIANTS (+4.5) over Broncos 

Did you know that Peyton and Eli are brothers?

49ers (+3) over SEAHAWKS 

I have no real reason to not have faith in the Seahawks, but I do not have faith in the Seahawks.

Steelers (+7) over BENGALS 

So will all the Steelers fans suddenly disappear now that they are bad? Then in 5 or 10 years when they are good again they will all come out of the woodwork and talk about how big of Steelers fans they are? Remember when the Penguins and Pirates were terrible and no one went to the game or talked about them? Now everyone loves to tell you how big of Pirates fans they are and how much they love Crosby. Basically my point is this, Pittsburgh fans suck.

2013 Season - Week 1

The world is changed: I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air...Much that once was is lost, for none now live who remember it.

The world is changed for Gamblor this year. In past years I spent my day writing about football for just above minimum wage, but now I toil away in an office. Although I’m better at crossword puzzles, knowing what day it is and looking at clocks than I have been in the past, I know far less about football going into this season than I have in a long, long time. But maybe it is for the best, last season was my best ever and I went 131-125-10, not exactly raking in the profits (I managed to go 7-3-1 in the playoffs, but playoff gambling is easier).

The world is also changed in the NFL.

Almost no one seems to have a featured running back anymore. This change has been slowly happening for years, but this year it has gone full force. Anyone who participated in a fantasy football draft this year knows that outside of about 12-15 guys, no one is guaranteed to get carries. That means over half of the teams in the NFL don’t really have a complete starting running back.

After the Ravens playoff run, Ray Lewis is retired, Ed Reed is a Texan and Joe Flacco is now considered a clutch, elite, big-money quarterback.

I think upwards of 400 players tore their ACLs in training camp in what I can only assume is an effort to be more like Adrian Peterson.

And hopes are high in Washington, D.C. for the Redskins – not just the rabid fans who believed Steve Spurrier was going to guide them to greatness, but even the pessimistic cynical assholes like myself.

Now it’s time to try to make sense of these betting lines. And apologies, I had no time to edit this post.

Last season (including playoffs): 138-128-11

Home team in CAPS

Ravens (+7.5) over BRONCOS

When these two met in January the Broncos were favored by 9.5 points, but the Ravens won and went on to become Super Bowl champs. I realize the Ravens are a bit of a changed team since the Super Bowl, but the Broncos have issues of their own. Both Von Miller and Champ Bailey will be out, so there is no reason to think the Ravens can’t score with Denver, at least enough to keep it close.

Patriots (-9) over BILLS

Lock of the Week

I have two friends that are Bills fans, which means they get made fun of by some of my other friends. I’ll let a few of their lines do the talking.

From a Pats fan - "Alright, our rookie QB who missed some of preseason recovering from knee surgery is starting! Let's get excited!" - Bills fans

From a realistic Bills fan - I don't mind people making fun of the Bills. It's all totally deserved.

STEELERS (-7) over Titans

Let’s be clear about something right now. The Steelers are not good, they are just better than the Titans.

SAINTS (-3) over Falcons

Maybe I’m overplaying the importance of Sean Payton’s return and how excited the Superdome will be, but I see the Saints coming out hot. I still think Atlanta is the better team, but not on Sunday.

Buccaneers (-3) over JETS

It almost seems like the Jets are trying to turn into an even bigger train wreck this year than they were last year. I’m not sure that it’s possible, but I respect that they are trying.

Chiefs (-4) over JAGUARS

Jacksonville, where the best thing that can happen to your season is getting the final confirmation that Blaine Gabbert does not deserve another shot.

Bengals (+3) over BEARS

I can’t wait to see all the things Marc Trestman and the Bears incorporate from his time in Canada. Poutine, maple syrup, Mounties, Inuit drum dancing, the Quebec sovereignty movement, and of course, actual Bears.

BROWNS (-1) over Dolphins

If anyone is forced to somehow watch both this game and the Chiefs vs. Jaguars game, they will likely stop watching football for the rest of the season.

PANTHERS (+3.5) over Seahawks

Seattle ended last season really hot and had a very active offseason. Everyone is in love with them, so it follows that they will probably miss the playoffs.

LIONS (-5) over Vikings

There is no way that Adrian Peterson can overcome Christian Ponder again this season.

COLTS (-9.5) over Raiders

If you froze a Raiders fan in the early 1980s and thawed him out today, he’d likely be more confused and upset than John Spartan coming out of CryoPrison in San Angeles. But slightly less confused and upset than someone watching Demolition Man.

Cardinals (+4.5) over RAMS

Arizona, where Carson Palmer is a HUGE upgrade at the quarterback position. It should be noted that Carson Palmer is warm garbage.

49ERS (-4.5) over Packers

Hey, how about that, a really good football game. Fun times.

Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS

The best part about this game is that either the Cowboys or Giants will start the season 0-1.

REDSKINS (-3.5) over Eagles

On a neutral field the Redskins are only half-point favorites over the Eagles? They have a completely new offense and a completely new defense. Maybe I’m being a homer on this one, but this line seems about a point, point-and-a-half too small.

Texans (-4) over CHARGERS

It’s probably going to be a lot of fun watch Philip Rivers reactions now that the Chargers are legitimately crappy.