The world is changed: I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air...Much that once was is lost, for none now live who remember it.
The world is changed for Gamblor this year. In past years I spent my day writing about football for just above minimum wage, but now I toil away in an office. Although I’m better at crossword puzzles, knowing what day it is and looking at clocks than I have been in the past, I know far less about football going into this season than I have in a long, long time. But maybe it is for the best, last season was my best ever and I went 131-125-10, not exactly raking in the profits (I managed to go 7-3-1 in the playoffs, but playoff gambling is easier).
The world is also changed in the NFL.
Almost no one seems to have a featured running back anymore. This change has been slowly happening for years, but this year it has gone full force. Anyone who participated in a fantasy football draft this year knows that outside of about 12-15 guys, no one is guaranteed to get carries. That means over half of the teams in the NFL don’t really have a complete starting running back.
After the Ravens playoff run, Ray Lewis is retired, Ed Reed is a Texan and Joe Flacco is now considered a clutch, elite, big-money quarterback.
I think upwards of 400 players tore their ACLs in training camp in what I can only assume is an effort to be more like Adrian Peterson.
And hopes are high in Washington, D.C. for the Redskins – not just the rabid fans who believed Steve Spurrier was going to guide them to greatness, but even the pessimistic cynical assholes like myself.
Now it’s time to try to make sense of these betting lines. And apologies, I had no time to edit this post.
Last season (including playoffs): 138-128-11
Home team in CAPS
Ravens (+7.5) over BRONCOS
When these two met in January the Broncos were favored by 9.5 points, but the Ravens won and went on to become Super Bowl champs. I realize the Ravens are a bit of a changed team since the Super Bowl, but the Broncos have issues of their own. Both Von Miller and Champ Bailey will be out, so there is no reason to think the Ravens can’t score with Denver, at least enough to keep it close.
Patriots (-9) over BILLS
I have two friends that are Bills fans, which means they get made fun of by some of my other friends. I’ll let a few of their lines do the talking.
From a Pats fan - "Alright, our rookie QB who missed some of preseason recovering from knee surgery is starting! Let's get excited!" - Bills fans
From a realistic Bills fan - I don't mind people making fun of the Bills. It's all totally deserved.
STEELERS (-7) over Titans
Let’s be clear about something right now. The Steelers are not good, they are just better than the Titans.
SAINTS (-3) over Falcons
Maybe I’m overplaying the importance of Sean Payton’s return and how excited the Superdome will be, but I see the Saints coming out hot. I still think Atlanta is the better team, but not on Sunday.
Buccaneers (-3) over JETS
It almost seems like the Jets are trying to turn into an even bigger train wreck this year than they were last year. I’m not sure that it’s possible, but I respect that they are trying.
Chiefs (-4) over JAGUARS
Jacksonville, where the best thing that can happen to your season is getting the final confirmation that Blaine Gabbert does not deserve another shot.
Bengals (+3) over BEARS
I can’t wait to see all the things Marc Trestman and the Bears incorporate from his time in Canada. Poutine, maple syrup, Mounties, Inuit drum dancing, the Quebec sovereignty movement, and of course, actual Bears.
BROWNS (-1) over Dolphins
If anyone is forced to somehow watch both this game and the Chiefs vs. Jaguars game, they will likely stop watching football for the rest of the season.
PANTHERS (+3.5) over Seahawks
Seattle ended last season really hot and had a very active offseason. Everyone is in love with them, so it follows that they will probably miss the playoffs.
LIONS (-5) over Vikings
There is no way that Adrian Peterson can overcome Christian Ponder again this season.
If you froze a Raiders fan in the early 1980s and thawed him out today, he’d likely be more confused and upset than John Spartan coming out of CryoPrison in San Angeles. But slightly less confused and upset than someone watching Demolition Man.
Cardinals (+4.5) over RAMS
Arizona, where Carson Palmer is a HUGE upgrade at the quarterback position. It should be noted that Carson Palmer is warm garbage.
49ERS (-4.5) over Packers
Hey, how about that, a really good football game. Fun times.
Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS
The best part about this game is that either the Cowboys or Giants will start the season 0-1.
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Eagles
On a neutral field the Redskins are only half-point favorites over the Eagles? They have a completely new offense and a completely new defense. Maybe I’m being a homer on this one, but this line seems about a point, point-and-a-half too small.
Texans (-4) over CHARGERS
It’s probably going to be a lot of fun watch Philip Rivers reactions now that the Chargers are legitimately crappy.
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