Super Bowl XLVII

RAY LEWIS!

HARBAUGHS!

Now that we have the two big storylines out of the way we can focus on the Super Bowl. One quick note on Lewis first, I bet ‘Deer Antler Velvet Extract’ becomes a very popular fantasy football team name next year (actually it is too long, but something along those lines). 

The good and bad thing about the Super Bowl from a gambling perspective is that just about everyone in America bets on it. That means you have a lot of uninformed gamblers potentially skewing the lines, leaving room for others to take advantage. It also means everyone will think they are an expert for a week and guys like Hank Goldberg get tons of TV face time despite the fact that he has gone something like 2-8 in these playoffs (not saying I deserve any recognition, just that no one on TV is really a gambling expert).

It also means there are a million prop bets to make, and if you have a lot of time on your hands and are good at statistical modeling, you can find prop bets that pair well together and give the bettor a good chance of making money. Plus, even if the game gets out of hand it gives you something to root for at all times.

Last week: 1-0-1
Playoffs: 7-2-1
Playoff locks of the week: 3-0
Season: 131-125-10

Might as well start out by going over some of those prop bets. The key to prop bets is picking the bets that you think have good odds, not necessarily just picking what you think will happen because you are going to be wrong at least some of the time.  

I’m not going to ever bet the coin toss or anything that is straight 50/50 odds and you could bet with a friend on any day of the year. Even if you guess the coin toss correctly, no site is going to pay you out even money, so if you really want to make this bet just find a friend to bet with, leave the sportsbooks out of it. 

All prop bets taken from bovada (Note: I kinda went overboard on these, if you don’t care about prop bets, skip ahead)

- Team to score first wins: Yes -160, No +130

It seems like this should be closer to an even odds bet. The Pats and Falcons scored first in the conference championships. In fact, teams to score first are 3-7 this playoffs. I realize that is too small of a sample to really mean anything, but it at least shows that scoring first is not the big advantage many might think.

- Alternative total 51.5: Over +145, Under -175

The initial thought by many in the public is that this game features two great defenses. Two quick points. One, the Ravens defense isn't that great anymore. Two, the 49ers have hit the over in six straight games and nine of their last 10, which means they've gone over in eight of the nine games Kaepernick has started. I realize 51.5 is a high line, but that’s why the over pays so well and I think it’s worth a shot. Plus, it’s always fun to cheer for points.

- Score in final two minutes of first half: Yes -280, No +220

I get that scores right before the half are very common, but there is a chance I’m wrong about the over and that this is a defensive battle without many points. +220 seems like too good of odds to pass up for a small bet here.

- Ravens first offensive touchdown: Passing -190, Rushing +155

San Francisco has a great run defense, but Ray Rice and the odds seem silly

- Will there be a lead change in the second half? Yes +150, No -180

I expect a close game, which means there is a good chance of a lead change.

- Team to make most field goals in the game? Ravens -105, 49ers -125 

Since the 49ers have become scared to kick anything longer than 40 yards due to Akers' struggles, the Ravens seem worthwhile.

- MVP Odds

I don’t really like any of these, but Gore at 7/1 or Rice at 12/1 are intriguing. I also find the fact that Ray Lewis has the third best odds of anyone at 7/1 to be stupid. I guess they’d give him the award if the Ravens win and no one stands out, but he is not their best defender anymore and not likely to be the best player on the field on Sunday.

- Joe Flacco first quarter TD passes: Over 0.5 +185, Under -225

Combine this with the Ravens first touchdown being a run bet and you have a good chance of making money as long as the Ravens score a TD in the first quarter.

- Joe Flacco total completions: Over 20.5 -130, Under 20.5 even

Flacco has been playing out of his mind in the playoffs and is averaging 17 completions per game.

- Who will have more rushing yards? Frank Gore -30.5 yards -115, Colin Kaepernick +30.5 yards -115

The over/under for Kaepernick’s rushing yardage was set at 50.5 and at 82.5 for Gore. That’s giving you a free two yards in favor of Gore. It’s not much, but worth taking note of.

- Who will have more receiving yards? Torrey Smith -27.5 yards -115, Randy Moss +27.5 yards -115

Smith’s line is 65.5, Moss’s line is 35.5, so it is giving Smith three extra yards here and Moss could easily be out of the gameplan as he has been much of the season.

- Who will have the longest rush? Steve Young Super Bowl XXIX (21 yards) -130 vs. Colin Kaepernick even 

Elsewhere on the site, Kaepernick’s longest rush bet is set at 19.5 and the over pays -130. Add on a yard and a half here and you get up to even. Seems like the better bet.

Some bets I won’t be making (I think), but enjoy all the same

- Will Jay-Z join Beyonce on stage at halftime? Yes even, No -140

It is apparently more likely that he will be performing than won’t be. All these halftime bets are incredibly worthless, but dangerously easy to talk yourself into making.

- How many times will the word ‘Harbaugh’ be said during the game? Over 21.5 -130, Under 21.5 -110

One of many Harbaugh bets available.

- What color Gatorade be dumped on the winning coach?

Yellow 7/4, Clear 19/10, Orange 7/2, Red 13/2, Blue 7/1, Green 7/1

Don’t sleep on Blue.



San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Every indication is that this game will be close. The teams have similar mentalities (coach brothers!), like to think they play the same way, like the same ice cream toppings, etc.

The Ravens have gone from nearly dead in the water at the end of the season to playing possibly their best football of the year. The defense is performing again (even against the Broncos, 14 of the 35 points allowed were on special teams), and the offense is dynamic.

They certainly can win this game if Joe Flacco keeps playing like the best quarterback in the playoffs, but if I were a Ravens fan, I’d be terrified of that statement. Flacco has been a harbinger of inconsistency over his career, playing his best when things are going good, and struggling when the pressure is squarely on his shoulders. Obviously there are exceptions, and he came through in the second half against New England after playing less than great it up in the first half.

It is also worth noting that the Ravens aren’t great on defense against the rush and San Francisco has had two weeks to plan different ways to attack them with the ground game. This will be by far the biggest test their rushing defense has had in the playoffs.

The 49ers are clearly the more talented squad, but a lot of strange things happen in 49ers games. Their dominant defense has routinely let up lots of points late in the season and in the playoffs. They got down in a huge hole against the Falcons, but then their defense played lights out in the second half and they kept chipping away to eventually win. Colin Kaepernick set a rushing record against the Packers, and then hardly ran at all the next week against the Falcons. They don’t trust their kicker to attempt field goals longer than 40 yards, and of course, they switched quarterbacks mid-season.

What this shows is that the 49ers may go against the grain frequently, but they still seem to find a way to win. They can win from behind, win from ahead, win big, or win close. This is not to say that the Ravens can’t do all these things as well, but I just have more faith in San Francisco.

The main factor that pushed me to the 49ers is that the Ravens have gotten it done as a huge underdog in their past two games. They were able to play with the freedom that no one would hold a loss against them as well as use the ‘no one believed in us’ card. But this week the line has moved in their favor over time and a good chunk of experts believe they will win outright. This takes away everything Baltimore has leaned on for the past month.

Twice this season people have thought the Ravens were looking really good. The first time they lost to the Texans by 30, the second time they lost four of five games. It won’t end well this time either. I still expect a close game, but the Ravens don’t have it in them.

Final score prediction: San Francisco 49ers 27, Ravens 20

Conference Championship Game Picks

Let’s all take a minute and enjoy what last weekend had to offer one more time. It was one of the best rounds of playoff football I can ever remember. Two games were classics and one featured 76 points and the best rushing performance by a quarterback ever. If you like offense it was about as good as it gets. There was an average of 69 points scored per game! That is crazy town.

Now, on the negative side, there is no way these Conference Championships live up to the Divisional round. It’s just not possible. Hopefully we didn't blow all our playoff goodness too early and left something for this Sunday and the Super Bowl.

Last week: 3-1
Playoffs: 6-2
Playoff Locks of the Week: 2-0
Season (including playoffs): 130-125-9

San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Atlanta Falcons

My first instinct regarding this game was that the 49ers are the more dangerous team and if both teams play well, San Francisco should still win. Prior to their game against the Packers I got hit with the feeling that the Niners were going to win the Super Bowl this year. BUT, a top-seeded home team should not be a four-point underdog. It just doesn’t make sense.

This line was pushed by how both NFC games ended last week. The Falcons let up 21 points in the fourth quarter and were at least somewhat lucky to move the ball into field goal range with great ease and win. The 49ers ran away late and Colin Kaepernick made everyone look slow. It looked as if no one could stop him, but he has been stopped before so this is clearly not true.

I’m not saying the 49ers aren’t the better team, but I don’t think the line is right. Atlanta is 8-1 at home with their only loss coming in a meaningless game. San Francisco still lacks consistency. Last time they had a huge offensive week was against the Patriots in Week 15; they followed it up by getting blown out in Seattle.

Also, it’s worth noting that for having one of the best defenses in football, the 49ers have let up over 30 points in three of their last four games (and the only game they didn’t was against the Cardinals who couldn’t score 30 points in an 11 vs. 0 practice). Not that all of those points have been the fault of the defense, but still, something worries me about a team that hangs its hat on defense and then lets up 30

Ultimately I still think the Niners will win, but this game will be close and if it’s going to be close I’m going to lean against the public and on the points.

Final score prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 27


Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8)

Lock of the Week (sidenote: picking a lock out of two games is both stupid and hard)

Baltimore probably deserves a pat on the back for depriving us of the media shit storm that would have been Brady vs. Manning. The Ravens shocked everyone last week and reminded us that for a chunk of the season they were somehow good at offense.

The most important factor in the Ravens beating the Broncos was big plays. Baltimore got three scores on passes of over 30 yards. During the regular season, Denver only allowed 39 plays of 20+ yards, fifth best in the league. The Patriots on the other hand, allowed a league worst 74 plays of 20+ yards. Obviously this does not mean the Ravens will be able to get twice as many big passing plays, but it is a weakness that can be attacked.

On the other side, Baltimore’s defense certainly won’t be able to stop New England, so they better hope they can hit some of those big plays. Yes, the Ravens won their Week 3 matchup, but that doesn’t have a big impact on this game. The Patriots are a far better team than they were early on, I mean they lost to the Cardinals the previous week, so clearly something wasn’t working right for them at the time. What is more important is that these two almost always play each other close.

Final score prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 23

I realize expecting two teams to cover, but neither to win is quite stupid. But, hey, shut up!

Divisional Playoff Picks

So here in D.C., all the talk the past week has been about RG3 and how his injury was mishandled, etc. Figured I might as well give my quick two cents which I believe most everyone understands, obviously Shanahan was screwed either way.

Keep RG3 in the game and something like this could happen. Even if he didn’t get seriously injured there would be a lot of second guessing saying he clearly wasn’t effective, should have been taken out of the game, etc. But if Shanahan did take him out of the game and they still lost (which they probably would have) then everyone would be killing him for taking Bobby GGG out of the game. The dumbest thing Shanahan did was not alter the play calling. Keep up with the power running game and call plays that have the QB getting rid of the ball quickly on passing downs. At halftime if it was clear Griffin couldn’t even plant and make simple throws, replace him with Cousins.

The annoying thing is now people will forget about the whole season and focus just on how it ended. RG3 and the Redskins significantly exceeded expectations; fans should be pleased with the season and worried about the health of their quarterback, not questioning the entire offensive system. Sure, RGIII needs to run a bit less, but he is still going to run the ball and can still get injured on any play because he plays football, a sport that is very dangerous.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Playoff Locks of the Week: 1-0
Season (including playoffs): 127-124-9

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5)

There are so many dumb extraneous storylines for these playoff games and this one in particular.

Did you know Peyton Manning has beaten the Ravens nine straight times? He has also never lost to the Ravens in the playoffs!

Do you know how many times he has faced Baltimore in the playoffs? Two, two times. The scores of those games? 20-3 in 2009 and 15-6 in 2006 (years reference the seasons not the game dates). First of all, two games is not a significant sample size. Second, these games were three and six years ago. Third, he played for the Indianapolis Colts then, you may or may not know this but that is a different team than the Denver Broncos. Fourth, judging from the scores it seems like Manning beating the Ravens had a lot more to do with the Ravens being unable to score any points. Here are Manning’s combined stats from his two playoff wins over Baltimore: 45-for-74, 416 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions. Yep, he really has their number in the playoffs!

Another dumb “storyline” – Peyton Manning is 0-3 in playoff games below 40 degrees!

Um, he spent his career playing in a dome in Indianapolis! Now he plays on a cold weather team, this is a pretty important difference. All those cold weather losses were on the road with a dome team, now he will be playing at home on a team that is used to playing in the cold. Two of those below-40 losses came to eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots teams, these Ravens are not Super Bowl champion material. This stat is infuriatingly stupid and what makes it worse is how people talk about it. ESPN had their football idiots standing outside of their building in Bristol because it was cold outside. You see, standing in the cold makes one much more knowledgeable about playing in the cold and you basically have to listen to their points, because they know what it is like to be in a cold weather environment.

Final score prediction: Broncos 27, Ravens 16


Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3) 

I’ll say upfront, I am at a crossroads when it comes to this game. On the one side is what I think is going to happen, and on the other side is realizing that far too much of the public thinks the same way. So rather than go with my gut, I’m going against the will of the masses.

The 49ers just aren’t being given enough credit. Sure, Green Bay is the hotter team, Aaron Rodgers is really good, and they are finally getting healthy, etc. But it seems like everyone is counting out the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense is really good and they can run the ball very well, something Green Bay is not great at stopping.

Here is the most important fact, the Packers went 4-4 on the road this year and it’s not like all their road losses came early on either. They lost their last two games on the road, in Indy and in Seattle. Purely from lack of respect for these factors, I’m taking the Niners.

Final score prediction: 49ers 25, Packers 21


Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) 

Honestly I thought everyone would be picking the Seahawks and that made me nervous, but apparently they aren’t quite the hot pick I thought they’d be this week.

Not that it has a single thing to do with the Falcons, but the No. 1 seed in the NFC has lost in the Divisional Playoffs in four of the last five seasons. That is pretty incredible and it seems like this is the perfect matchup to keep that trend going.

The line is probably a little on the low side for a team that finished 13-3 and 7-1 at home, with the only loss being in a meaningless Week 17 game, but still have people forgotten how hot the Seahawks are? They have one of the best secondaries in the league and if you shut down the Falcons passing attack they are in big trouble.

Also Matt Ryan has been hot garbage in the playoffs in previous years. All season people have mentioned how the Falcons were going to choke in the playoffs and now over 50% of people are picking them to cover against the team that everyone said was the team to beat in the NFC last week? I don’t get it.

In Week 2 I wrote – “For some reason I see this Falcons team head to 12 wins and another early playoff exit.” I’m sticking to that.

Final score prediction: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17


Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Lock of the Week

I’d love to pick against the Patriots here, but I’m not sure if it’s possible. They destroyed Houston just over a month ago and that was without their top red zone threat, super bro Gronkowski. Also, the Texans have been miserable for a while now.

Last week Houston barely beat the Bengals and Andy Dalton had perhaps the worst game of his season. Don’t expect Tom Brady to miss wide open receivers like Dalton did.

The only chance the Texans have is if their defense plays out of its mind, they win the turnover battle, and dominate time of possession. I just don’t see it.

Final score prediction: Patriots 33, Texans 16

Wild Card Round Picks

I used to think that the playoffs were a great time to make money, but now I think I just feel more compelled to gamble because it is the playoffs, so I tell myself it is easier to make money.

All these ideas of rules to follow in the playoffs that were popularized by Bill Simmons are irrelevant. Last year every home team won, two years ago three road teams won (sidenote: two years ago the Chiefs were in the playoffs! The Chiefs! This year they were one of the most impressively terrible teams I’ve ever seen play football).

So this year I’m going to try not to overthink myself, but I’m fairly certain I’ve already failed.

On the plus side, for the first time since I’ve started doing these picks I finished a season over .500, admittedly only one game over .500, but still a winning record. Sure, it’s a winning record which would result in me losing money had I bet on every game, but it is a winning record damnit!

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 124-123-9
Lock of the Week: 7-8-1 (forgot to pick one last week!)

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5)

Admittedly the Texans are struggling big time, having lost three of their last four games. The Bengals meanwhile have won three-straight and seven of their last eight (I actually didn’t know they were that hot until looking it up right now). Still, they haven’t impressed me and the fact that many people are picking them as the upset of the week gives me more confidence in the Texans.

Despite recent struggles (keep in mind all three losses were to playoff teams, two of them on the road), Houston is still the more talented team. Also, keep in mind that a big reason for the Bengals late-season success was BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and he won’t be 100% on Saturday.

The other reason the Bengals finished the year on a tear was the play of their defense. No team they faced in the second half of the season had nearly as many weapons as the Texans do.

Final score prediction: Texans 24, Bengals 14


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Lock of the Week Game

Adrian Peterson ran for over 400 yards in two games against the Packers this season. That is incredible and clearly he has the talent to gash them again on Saturday, but I just don’t see Green Bay losing twice in a week to the same team. In fact, I don’t think it will be very close.

The Packers will key in on Peterson and force Ponder to beat them, but I don’t think he is up to the task. Ponder has played decently well over the past few weeks, but the playoffs are a different monster. I think the experience of Green Bay will really come through and the defense will force multiple turnovers. Also, this is the first game in a while that Rodgers will have his full stable of receivers and I expect at least 30 points out of the Packers.

Final score prediction: Packers 34, Vikings 20


Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

All year I’ve been talking about how excited I am for the Colts to reach the playoff and the chance to bet against them. Then they draw the Ravens and are given seven points.

The Ravens lost four of their last five games and turned into a total mess. Meanwhile, the Colts went from looking lucky early in the season to solid at the end of the season. Still, Baltimore is somehow favored by a touchdown, most likely because of people like me who were so ready to bet against the Colts.

I don’t know what to make of the fact that the Colts have looked like the better team down the stretch, but are still getting very little respect. It makes me partially want to jump on the Indianapolis bet, and partially makes me think Vegas is confirming my thoughts that the Colts aren’t very good. What it really means is I should stay away from betting on the game, but this is the playoffs damnit! And we bet on every game regardless of if we have the slightest idea what will happen!

Keeping in mind that the Colts are only 4-4 on the road and the Ravens will be super jazzed up because Ray Lewis has decided to ride off into space on his Raven rocket…

Final score prediction: Ravens 24, Colts 16


Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Washington Redskins

Up front note: there is no way I can possibly be impartial in writing about this game. In fact just typing the matchup started to make my body twitch with nerves.

Obviously, I’m worried about the Seahawks. They are super-hot, feature a great defense and great rushing attack. The Redskins are also super-hot, but have had to battle a bit more than Seattle to get their wins and RG3 still looks a bit hobbled by that knee.

BUT, I did not expect Seattle to be favored by three points. They are the road team, coming across the country, they are hot, but they still went 3-5 on the road this year. Sure they have won five straight with three huge blowouts, but look closer. The blowout win over San Francisco might have been the most impressive game any team has played in the NFL this season, and that is the only reason everyone is in love with them right now. And that game was in Seattle. In Seattle, this team is essentially unbeatable. But the other two blowouts were over the Bills and Cardinals – not that impressive.

Don’t take this to mean I don’t think the Seahawks are really good, because I do, they only have three turnovers in their last six games and in that time have forced 15 (but eight of those came in the Cardinals game). Marshawn Lynch is a beast, Russell Wilson is a playmaker with poise, they have the best secondary in football, etc.

Also, it is not as if the Redskins have beaten a string of superteams on their seven game run. They beat one playoff team, the struggling Ravens, five division opponents who look less impressive with the season over, and the Browns. As mentioned, RG3 is not full speed and their defense is not the greatest. BUT, they are still very impressive as well. Pro-Bowl snub Alfred Morris outgained Lynch, they’ve been tested in close games, have protected the ball, and have even started forcing turnovers recently.

At the start of the week I was worried about the Seahawks for many reasons, including an important one – all of their players are so likeable. But I forgot they are in fact very easy to dislike. I mean, just look at their fucking coach.

Final score prediction: Redskins 27, Seahawks 24