Week 7: Nearing Death

Forgot about picks again! So now I'll select games in 10 minutes our less.

Last Week: 4-8-1
Season: 41-43-2
Lock of the Week: 3-3

Home team in CAPS

Bills (-4.5) over JAGUARS
RAMS (-6.5) over Browns
Steelers (+3) over CHIEFS
Texans (+4.5) over DOLPHINS
PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Jets
LIONS (+1.5) over Vikings
Falcons (-6) over TITANS
REDSKINS (-3) over Buccaneers
Saints (+4) over COLTS
Raiders (+4) over CHARGERS
GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
PANTHERS (-3) over Eagles (Lock of the Week)
CARDINALS (-8.5) over Ravens

Week 6: Almost Forgot

Yep, ran out of time and almost didn't do picks at all. I'm quickly remembering why I was going to stop doing this, but I'm committed at this point to at least half-ass it through the rest of the season.

Last Week: 7-5-1
Season: 37-35-1
Lock of the Week: 3-2

Home team in CAPS

Broncos (-4) over BROWNS
Bengals (-3) over BILLS
VIKINGS (-3.5) over Chiefs
JAGUARS (-1) over Texans (Lock of the Week)
LIONS (-3) over Bears
JETS (-6.5) over Redskins
Cardinals (-3.5) over STEELERS
Dolphins (+1) over TITANS
SEAHAWKS (-7) over Panthers
PACKERS (-10.5) over Chargers
Ravens (-2) over 49ERS
Patriots (-9) over Colts
Giants (+5.5) over EAGLES

Hey almost all favorites, I'm sure that won't end terribly.

Week 5: Yes, It is Already Week 5

Somehow the NFL season already a quarter over. This should mean we have a good guess as to which teams are for real and which teams are terrible. Even more important, we should have some idea of which teams appear to be solid on the surface, but really are made of glass and are just waiting to shatter. I don't know the second part, but I do know that there are some good teams (Packers, Pats, Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals (I think)) and some really bad teams (Bears, 49ers, Dolphins, the NFC East, the AFC South, Jameis Winston).

Last week was my best week of the season, so naturally the only real bets I made were teasers that all lost. This week I’ll respond by making more bets and probably going 3-10.

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 30-30-1
Lock of the Week: 3-1

Home team in CAPS

Jaguars (+3) over BUCCANEERS
A battle for the best team in Florida? It is possible with the way Miami has soiled its pants this season.

TITANS (2.5) over Bills
When you have a pretty week offense to begin with it is hard to deal with a slew of injuries. Buffalo needs this game to prove it is not the same team it has been for the last several years and I think they’ll be able to get the win but the line is somewhat suspiciously low, leading me to bet on the Titans.

RAVENS (-6.5) over Browns
Lock of the Week
Seems like the time for the Ravens to rattle off a few wins, perhaps by large margins before reminding us that they aren’t very good again once they get back into the playoff picture.

FALCONS (-7.5) over Redskins
I don’t think it is possible at this moment in time for Washington to play back-to-back good football games. Also, Atlanta is by far the best team they will have played to this point in the season.

Bears (+9) over CHIEFS
I do not like picking the Bears. I’ve suggested they are the worst team in the league and think that still may be true, but Andy Reid by 9 seems like a lot of points.

EAGLES (-5) over Saints
If New Orleans can barely beat Branden Weeden in the Superdome, they probably can’t beat anyone away from the Superdome.

PACKERS (-9) over Rams
Green Bay is one of three teams 4-0 against the spread this year. Keep riding the hot hand.

BENGALS (-3) over Seahawks
Cincinnati is another one of those teams. And Seattle has been struggle street on the road to this point.

Cardinals (-2.5) over LIONS
Devastating loss for the Lions last Monday, but the Cardinals should rebound here after a poor performance last week.

Patriots (-8.5) over COWBOYS
Broncos (-4.5) over RAIDERS
Still probably the best two teams in the AFC, despite the fact that one of the two legendary QBs can barely throw his keys onto the coffee table.

GIANTS (-7) over 49ers
I don’t even think the Giants are very good, there is just no reason to pick the 49ers to do anything good. They are completely useless on offense. But hey, another great Sunday Night game. Good work NBC.

Steelers (+3) over CHARGERS
One of the worst rush defenses is favored against the best running back in the league, so I gotta pick Pittsburgh but there is a solid chance Mike Tomlin messes it up. His bungling of the Ravens game last week was on a Brad Childress/Romeo Crennel level.

Week 4: Clever Subtitle

I feel like I am constantly rehashing this, but that Thursday game was pure garbage. It was a simply a battle of which coach was going to fuck up least – but it was a close game that went into overtime, so most people are going to believe it was a good game.

Last week I had my first terrible week of the season, so let's double those bets! Progressive betting!

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 21-25-1
Lock of the Week: 2-1

Home team in CAPS

Jets (-1.5) over DOLPHINS
Technically the Dolphins are the home team, but this game is in London. London games are just as stupid as Thursday games in my mind. But the Dolphins are garbage, so without home field I don’t like them against a Jets team that is at least competent.

Jaguars (+9) over COLTS
On the one hand the Jags made me regret ever picking them to cover any spread last week, but the Colts just barely squeeked by the Titans at home, so I’m not going to pick them to win anything by double digits.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Texans
In April, my friend bet me that the Falcons would win the NFC South. I’d get all 3 of the other teams. Crazy that only 3 weeks into the season I feel like he has locked up that bet.

Panthers (-3) over BUCCANEERS
Sure, the Panthers are also 3-0 and will likely be 4-0, but they’ve played against absolutely no one. Because the NFC South gets to play against the AFC South, they will produce two playoff teams and the Panthers will go to the playoffs for the third straight year. This will make them maybe the worst team to ever make the playoffs in three consecutive seasons (to be fair they were good 2 years ago).

BILLS (-5.5) over Giants
I’ve noticed people wearing Bills hats around DC the past few weeks. Outside of my two friends that are Bills fans, not sure I’d ever seen a piece of Bills gear over the past 10 years. I guess a bunch of people just moved from Buffalo to DC…

Raiders (-3) over BEARS
This game will tell us if the Bears are once-in-a-generation terrible, or just run-of-the-mill terrible.

REDSKINS (+3) over Eagles
Note to self: If Washington happens to win this game do not get excited and definitely do not pick them to win next week. Comment to self: What are you doing picking them to cover this spread? I can feel myself getting angry at myself as I write this.

BENGALS (-4) over Chiefs
I thought Andy Dalton was going to be the QB that collapsed into nothingness this year, appears that QB might actually be Alex Smith.

Browns (+7.5) over CHARGERS
I’m not taking San Diego to win by more than one score, not happening.

PACKERS (-8.5) over 49ers
Lock of the Week
Seems crazy to think that only two years ago the 49ers were the better team. They fell apart impressively quick.

Vikings (+7) over BRONCOS
Is it possible Peyton Manning could win a Super Bowl as a game manager QB? That’s his only chance now, but Denver’s defense might be good enough to pull it off. However, as you can see, I don’t trust in the Broncos yet.

CARDINALS (-7) over Rams
One team I do trust however is the Cardinals.

Cowboys (+4) over SAINTS
I bet NBC wishes they had flex scheduling this early in the season. Weeden! McCown! No, the other McCown! Sunday Night Football on NBC!

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions
Jim Caldwell stares blankly.

Week 3: We Know Nothing

Picking that Thursday game was a mistake. Stupid believing the Redskins had a chance.

The third week of the season is the right amount of time to fool yourself into believing just about any narrative possible. It is just enough evidence to make you think trends exist where they don’t really. Prime time for losing money, so let’s saddle up.

Last Week: 8-7
Season: 15-15-1
Locks of the Week: 1-1
This Week: 0-1

Home team in CAPS

RAMS (+1) over Steelers
The Steelers get Bell back and go up against a Rams team that got gashed by the Redskins running game. Bell will not have a great game and Steelers fans across the country will freak out a little bit. Should be a nice Sunday.

Chargers (+2.5) over VIKINGS
Given the option, what percent of people do you think would rather live in Minneapolis over San Diego? Does it reach 10%? I’m sure Minneapolis in the summer is fantastic, but they have three months of the year where it doesn’t get above freezing. No thanks.

Buccaneers (+6.5) over TEXANS
Not sure the Texans deserve to be favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone. Actually, yes, I am sure, the Texans should not be favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone (except the Bears probably).

JETS (-2) over Eagles
What record is winning the NFC East this year? I’ve got my money on 8-8.

PANTHERS (-3) over Saints
I think we have reached the point where we can stop believing the Saints are still a good team and powerful offense.

Jaguars (+13.5) over PATRIOTS
This spread is too big. I’m anti-double digit spreads.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Bengals
It’s early, but this is a must-win game for Baltimore.

Raiders (+3.5) over BROWNS
How quickly will fans start cheering to put in Manziel?

Colts (-3) over TITANS
Another must-win game.

Falcons (-1) over COWBOYS
After Romo went down the Cowboys went and added Matt Cassel, presumably because they knew that Branden Weeden couldn’t carry the load for eight weeks. This begs the question, why are teams entering into seasons with a backup QB they don’t trust to get the job done? If they didn’t think Weeden can fill in, why is he on the team? Especially when you have Romo, a guy who is gonna get hurt from time to time. NFL teams make no sense sometimes.

CARDINALS (-6.5) over 49ers
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Arizona might be the best team in football. I’m not sure how that is possible, but it is possible.

SEAHAWKS (-14.5) over Bears
Ok, in this instance I am pro-double-digit spreads. The Seahawks playing their first home game, 0-2, with Chancellor back in the lineup against Jimmy Clausen. The spread could be 20 and I’d still probably take them even if you told me they’d punt every first down.


Sad Bear

Bills (+3) over DOLPHINS
LIONS (+3) over Broncos
Take the points!

Chiefs (+6.5) over PACKERS
Don’t really have a reason, just feels right.

Week 3 B-B-B-Bonus Pick

I said I wasn’t gonna pick any Thursday games, but the Redskins are playing tonight which means if nothing else, at least I knew there was a game ahead of time and thought about it. So, I might as well make a pick.

Last Week: 8-7
Season: 15-15-1
Locks of the Week: 1-1

Redskins (+3) over GIANTS

The Giants have covered the last 4 games against the Redskins, including a 31-point drubbing 364 days ago on a Thursday night. This season the Giants have managed to lose two games they were winning by double digits in the 4th quarter. I’m not sure if that means they are inept or that they are good and a string of wins is coming soon. All my instincts say this will be a big win for the Giants, all of them. But the line movement tells me to bet the Redskins. Last week I went with my instincts, this week I go with Vegas.

Week 2: Already Ready to Quit

It took me all of one week to not really want to spend the time needed to write this column. In fact, a mix of forgetting of it and not having time made me not even think about doing it until 10 minutes before kickoff last night. For this reason, and because I hate the entire concept anyways, I will not be picking any Thursday night games this season (with the exception of Thanksgiving). Get out of here Thursday Night Football, no one likes you. I don’t care what the really high ratings say, I think we’d all be happier if you didn’t exist.

I’m short on time and it’s getting late, so let’s just get to the picks.

Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 7-8-1
Lock of the Week: 1-0

Home Team in CAPS

PANTHERS (-3) over Texans

It did not take me long to give up on the idea that the Texans might be good this year. I don’t think the switch to Ryan Mallet is going to save them.

Buccaneers (+10) over SAINTS

I’m not sure Tampa can be as bad as they looked last week, but also, they might be.

STEELERS (-6) over 49ers
Lions (+2.5) over Vikings

My assumption is that both San Francisco and Minnesota are bad.
 
BILLS (+1) over Patriots

Really I just wanted to pick more home teams and underdogs. When I think about it I really want to pick the Pats, but when I think about it I tend to make incorrect picks too.

Cardinals (-2) over BEARS

I still can’t really buy into the fact that Carson Palmer is good, but I can buy into the fact that the Bears are bad.

BROWNS (+1.5) over Titans

I almost made the Titans my lock of the week and now I have picked the Browns. That displays the massive amount of confidence I have in these picks. My thought process was that there is no way the Titans are anywhere close to as good as they looked last week and there is no way the Browns are as bad as they looked. Everything comes back to the middle.

BENGALS (-3) over Chargers

Sure

Rams (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Lock of the Week

It is good to know that the Redskins are still so very Redskins. Despite everything I said last week and how much I thought they would suck, the Skins found a way to make me say to myself “they might win this game.” And then proceeded to immediately ruin it with terrible special teams coverage and an exquisite ability to fuck up when it matters most.

Falcons (-2.5) over GIANTS

My distrust in the Redskins extends to their entire division. Want to talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? The Giants set a high bar in week one (one that may have already been topped by the Chiefs on Thursday).

Ravens (-6.5) over RAIDERS

I made the mistake of betting on the Raiders last week. That’s like betting against the Harlem Globetrotters.

JAGUARS (+6) over Dolphins

Sure, I could say the same thing I just said about the Raiders about the Jags, but I’ll save that regret and self-hatred for next week.

EAGLES (-5) over Cowboys

It’ll be kinda funny when the NFC East has a collective 2-6 record with both wins coming within the division. It will be a lot funnier if their collective record is 12-52 with all 12 wins coming within the division.

Seahawks (+3.5) over PACKERS

This version of the Seahawks have covered every time they have ever played against Aaron Rodgers.

COLTS (-7) over Jets

The Jets scored all their points for the season last week.