2013 - Week 4

At the beginning of the year I was convinced that the NFC was way better than the AFC. Turns out, I’m an idiot. There are only five NFC teams with a winning record currently, obviously that will change as the season progresses, but the depth I thought existed might not be there.

So what is wrong with the once-powerful NFC? The Packers, Falcons, and 49ers (arguably the best three teams in the NFC last year) are all 1-2 and have not looked like Super Bowl contenders. One similarity between the three; none of their defenses have looked strong, which is of particular concern for the 49ers who had one of the best defenses over the past two seasons. I expect at least one, if not all three of them to turn it around, but it is also likely one of them will miss the playoffs as there are major flaws present in each team.

The Seahawks meanwhile have proven themselves to be the class of the conference (after I foolishly predicted them to regress) and appear headed to the Super Bowl to face the Broncos.

Ultimately though, there have only been three games played so far. At this point last year the best two teams in the league looked to be the Falcons and Texans and neither made it to the Super Bowl.

Last Week: 6-9-1
Lock of the Week: 1-2
Season: 17-29-2

Home team in CAPS

Parks and Rec over THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Instead of watching the entirety of another Thursday night football game in which at least one team seems completely unprepared for the fact that they are not playing on Sunday watch the smartest comedy on TV. Then, if you want, you can turn to football at 9.

49ers (-3) over RAMS

This game could be considered make or break for the 49ers. You could argue they have been the worst team in the league the past two weeks (okay, you could argue they’ve been the second worst team after the Jaguars). And now they are playing a team they could not beat last season, but I can’t see them falling completely apart and I think they’ll find a way to get the offense going again.

VIKINGS (+2.5) over Steelers

The Vikings have proven that they are at least capable of scoring points on a regular basis. The Steelers, not so much.

Ravens (-3) over BILLS

Lock of the Week

Essentially half of the Bills starting defense is questionable this week, not a good sign. And yes, I'm going to try to ride the Ravens as my lock of the week twice in a row. And no, I don't feel good about it.

Bengals (-4) over BROWNS

Brian Hoyer actually led the Browns to victory last week and looked decent in doing so. Still, one decent week does not force us to forget that Cleveland is still Cleveland.

Colts (-8.5) over JAGUARS

There is no appropriate metric to explain how bad the Jaguars offense is. But I’ll throw a few thing out there. They have 155 less yards of offense than the 31st ranked team. They have been sacked a league leading 15 times in three weeks. They average a league worst 2.4 yards per carry. They have punted a league high 26 times. They have fans who held a rally in an attempt to get the team to sign Tim Tebow. Essentially, Jacksonville is the NFL reincarnation of the Washington Generals, the team designed to lose all their games to the Harlem Globetrotters in an embarrassing fashion.

Seahawks (-2.5) over TEXANS

Seattle is scary good. This week will test if they can go on the road and beat a solid team, if they do then I’m not sure who is stopping them.

Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS

The best part of the Cardinals is their secondary, so rookie quarterback Mike Glennon might have a tough time in his first NFL start.

Bears (+3) over LIONS

If Nate Burleson was a member of the Cleveland Browns I think the world might have broken in half on Tuesday. Breaking your arm trying to save a pizza is already a nearly unbelievable, comical injury. It also would have been the most Cleveland thing of all time. As is Detroit is also a pretty good fit for unfathomable cartoonish failure. This is of course the same team that a few years ago had a coach arrested for driving naked through a fast-food drive-thru window.

Giants (+4.5) over CHIEFS

As entertaining as it has been to watch the Giants fail all over the place, there is simply no way they can keep up with their current rate of turnovers. They have turned the ball over on 30% of their drives. Eli Manning will put together a solid game soon. Or maybe not? Maybe he's granted all of his Manning powers to Peyton his season.

TITANS (-3.5) over Jets

Both of these teams are 2-1, but Tennessee looks far more capable as a football team. I think I'm not alone in waiting for some sort of Jets implosion, but if they can pull of this road upset they deserve some credit.

CHARGERS (+2) over Cowboys

Philip Rivers and Tony Romo have been a bit too consistent to this point. And by consistent I mean neither of them has had a truly awful game yet. Good chance it happens here.

Redskins (-3) over RAIDERS

The Redskins have shown me nothing to believe they should be favored on the road against a team with a win. In fact, Reggie Bush recently said, "We felt like last week (talking about vs. the Redskins), I could sit that one out and still get the win." Sad, but true. However, it is time to give thanks for the Raiders, who are in predictable Oakland trouble after not checking QB Terrelle Pryor for a concussion, putting him back in the game, then finally realizing he had a concussion and taking him out. Not making matters any better, Pryor tweeting that he didn’t remember the play.

BRONCOS (-10.5) over Eagles

The league’s best receiving corps against one of the worst secondaries. Could make for a slaughter, but when it is all said and done the Eagles might still only be one game out of first. NFC East power!

FALCONS (-2) over Patriots

Atlanta is 1-2 while New England is 3-0, but both of these teams have looked similarly week, failing to achieve the offensive success that helped drive them to success last year. By the eye test they are playing at the same level, so I'll take the home team.

Dolphins (+6.5) over SAINTS

For the record, I’m still not sold on the Dolphins, but you have to give them a bit of respect in terms of the line here. While they may not be playoff good, they've at least proven they are highly competitive.

2013 - Week 3

Now it feels like football season. The Redskins are struggling on the field and I am struggling to pick any games correctly, much less get more than half of them correct. This is my comfort zone, sub-par production.

And now with two weeks behind us we can start to actually learn some facts about football teams. The Jaguars could be historically bad, but not to be outdone the Browns are doing their best to stay neck and neck in the race for last place. The two first-round picks they planned on building their offense around last season, Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson, will not be suiting up for Cleveland on Sunday.

Weeden has an injured thumb, but his run as the starter might be over and certainly won’t last past this year. And Richardson was dealt to the Colts, leaving the Browns to rely on Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon as their top offensive threats.

I’m not saying Richardson was a stud, his yards per carry certainly left something to be desired and maybe Cleveland realized they couldn't get any better than a 1st round pick for him, but it is clear they have decided to punt on this season. I mean, instead of turning to the serviceable Jason Campbell, they have opted to go with Brian Hoyer at QB.

Everyone mark your calendars for December 1, when the Jaguars travel to Cleveland in what could be the worst professional football game ever played. My fingers are crossed for the first game in history with more punts than total yardage.

Last week: 6-10
Season: 11-20-1
Lock of the Week: 0-2 (I have lost all confidence in my lock for the time being)

Home team in CAPS

EAGLES (-3) over Chiefs 

I’m excited for the point in this game when Andy Reid challenges a play and loses or mismanages the clock and the Philly crowd goes wild. Kansas City’s defense will offer the first real test to Chip Kelly’s offense, but the Chiefs defensive stats are a bit out of whack thus far this season as they played the Jaguars in Week 1, which hardly counts, of course they allowed next to zero yards.

Chargers (+3) over TITANS 

I expect a turnover explosion in this game. The Titans have yet to turn it over and Philip Rivers only has one interception (albeit at the perfectly worst time possible), neither of those things will last.

VIKINGS (-6.5) over Browns 

I don’t think I’m allowed to pick the Browns after calling them as bad as the Jaguars.

Buccaneers (+7) over PATRIOTS 

Both teams have played two close games. Sure the Pats are 2-0 and the Bucs are 0-2 and look like they are on the brink of disaster with Josh Freeman, but until New England shows it can score, I’m not picking them to blow anyone out.

RAVENS (+2.5) over Texans
Lock of the Week (sorry Ravens) 

Baltimore hasn't looked good, but neither has Houston. I’ll take the defending champions getting points at home.

Rams (+4) over COWBOYS 

Looking at both of these teams and their rushing production (they average 62 and 68 yards per game on the ground) I was prepared to write about how terrible they both are at running the football, but as it turns out they are only the sixth and eighth worst rushing teams in the league. Teams are just inept at running now. I understand there has been a shift toward the passing game, but seriously what happened to running backs? The Giants and Steelers each average under 40 yards per game on the ground. That is unreal. Anyways, I’ll take the Rams because the NFC East is awful.

Cardinals (+7) over SAINTS

I’m not really sure that the Saints are anything but a slightly better version of the Lions. And Arizona just beat the Lions. Of course there is always the threat that Carson Palmer could go “Carson Palmer” at any moment and the Saints win by 20.

Lions (+2) over REDSKINS

If feels both nice and depressing to no longer have to worry about having expectations for the Redskins and reverting back to my normal cynicism.

BENGALS (+3) over Packers 

Home underdogs! Also, while good, Green Bay is not as good as they looked against the Redskins. Don’t expect James Starks to go for over 100 against a defense that knows that you are supposed to tackle the player with the ball.

Giants (+1) over PANTHERS 

As much as I would love to see the Giants fall to 0-3 and the NFC East continue to be completely worthless (let’s go Redskins in the playoffs at 8-8!), I don’t see New York losing here.

Falcons (+2.5) over DOLPHINS 

I’ll tell you who I don’t believe in – the Miami Dolphins.

49ERS (-10) over Colts 

I’ll tell you who lost to the Miami Dolphins – the Indianapolis Colts. And Trent Richardson with one full day of practice isn't gonna make much of a difference here.

Hastily made photoshop!

SEAHAWKS (-19.5) over Jaguars 

There will be a definite feel of nostalgia as an amped up Pete Carroll beats an inferior opponent by 40 points at home. Speaking of Pete Carroll, how does that guy have so much energy? He’s the second oldest coach in the league, but acts like the youngest. He’s 62 and has easily twice as much energy as me at half his age. He looks like a douchey-college kid who was just handed an NFL team to coach by his super rich, team-owning Dad.

JETS (-2.5) over Bills 

Although I feel like Buffalo is probably the better team because they have at least one capable skill position player, I’ll take the home field here.

Bears (-2.5) over STEELERS 

Not to pile on the Steelers week after week, but I really enjoy everyone realizing Ben Roethlisberger is not that great (although it is not as if any quarterback could get things done on that offense).

Raiders (+15) over BRONCOS 

I already picked one team that is favored by a comical amount of points, I don’t think I can do it twice in the same week. If you teased the Broncos and Seahawks, each team would still have to win by more than a touchdown for you to win your bet. I can’t imagine that situation happens to often in the NFL, the league that is supposed to be all about parity.

2013 - Week 2

Holy Shit Thursday Night Football is stupid.

I know I banged this drum pretty much all year last season, but I can’t help but to bring it up again. First of all, I don’t want to write my picks on Thursday (particularly this Thursday, suffering from a severe case of melted face). Secondly, I don’t want to feel like I need to watch a football game tonight, but ultimately I will and I’ll probably stay up until the end of the game and not get enough sleep because I’m an idiot and I do
whatever the fuck the NFL tells me to do.

Third, it ruins fantasy football. Players come off waivers on Wednesday and you more or less need your lineup set by Thursday. Obviously you can make changes after the Thursday game, but it just makes everything annoying. On top of that, survivor leagues – I need my pick in by Thursday now? Most teams play on Sunday and haven’t yet given an indication of what players might miss the game due to injury, yet we are still forced to make decisions now. Why not just pick all your teams before the start of the season and see what happens?

Back to betting – I really sucked it up to start off the season. Just impressive ineptitude on my part. If I were a smart, informed gambler, this would be a week to make money. Week 2 always has funky lines as the oddsmakers are unsure if they should trust results from the season openers or trust their original expectations. But of course, I’m a terrible gambler and if you are reading these picks to make financial decisions then I feel sorry for you.

Last week: 5-10-1
Season: 5-10-1
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Home team in CAPS

Jets (+11) over PATRIOTS

This is not an endorsement of the Jets. I think this line is too high. The Patriots really struggled last week in Buffalo and are really lacking receiving options, especially now with Vereen and Amendola out. The Jets are still bad, but they proved they are not quite as comically bad as many people had assumed they would be last week.

Chargers (+7.5) over EAGLES 

If this game was played in Week 1, I think the Eagles would have been favored by about four points. Despite a strong showing, I’m not sold on Chip Kelly’s offense as a powerhouse just yet.

RAVENS (-6.5) over Browns

I am, however; sold on the Browns being terrible.

COLTS (-3) over Dolphins 

Lock of the Week

This line opened as a pick ‘em, which is mind boggling. Sure the Colts struggled with the Raiders last week (who by all accounts should be worse than awful), but the Colts aren’t a team that blows people out. Pretty sure they will beat the Dolphins by a score.

TEXANS (-9) over Titans 

The Texans offense is significantly better than the lifeless corpse that is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite winning last week, the Titans offense remains useless.

Panthers (-3) over BILLS 

This bores me, is anyone up for a game of basketball?

FALCONS (-6.5) over Rams 

No way Atlanta doesn’t score a ton of points at home after looking fairly average against the Saints.

Redskins (+7.5) over PACKERS 

When this opened at 6.5 points I was all set to take Green Bay. Crazy how one point will change things. I hope that RG3 playing well in the second half vs. Philly was a sign of getting back into the groove and finding the speed of the game, not just a result of the terrible prevent defense by the Eagles.

Cowboys (+3) over CHIEFS 

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars last week, so we still know absolutely nothing about their ability as a football team.

BEARS (-6) over Vikings 

In years when we look back will we say Christian Ponder was the worst quarterback to ever lead a team to the playoff or will we say Joe Webb was the worst quarterback to ever start a playoff game? Or both? Probably both right?

Saints (-3) over BUCCANEERS

Even last year when they were bad and sans Sean Payton the Saints beat Tampa twice, so… yeah.

Lions (-1.5) over CARDINALS

Picking the Lions means that I’ve now taken every single road favorite this week, this is not a smart betting strategy, yet here we are.

RAIDERS (-5.5) over Jaguars 

If you had told me even one week ago that I would ever pick the Raiders as five-and-a-half point favorites this season I would have probably vomited on myself.

GIANTS (+4.5) over Broncos 

Did you know that Peyton and Eli are brothers?

49ers (+3) over SEAHAWKS 

I have no real reason to not have faith in the Seahawks, but I do not have faith in the Seahawks.

Steelers (+7) over BENGALS 

So will all the Steelers fans suddenly disappear now that they are bad? Then in 5 or 10 years when they are good again they will all come out of the woodwork and talk about how big of Steelers fans they are? Remember when the Penguins and Pirates were terrible and no one went to the game or talked about them? Now everyone loves to tell you how big of Pirates fans they are and how much they love Crosby. Basically my point is this, Pittsburgh fans suck.

2013 Season - Week 1

The world is changed: I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air...Much that once was is lost, for none now live who remember it.

The world is changed for Gamblor this year. In past years I spent my day writing about football for just above minimum wage, but now I toil away in an office. Although I’m better at crossword puzzles, knowing what day it is and looking at clocks than I have been in the past, I know far less about football going into this season than I have in a long, long time. But maybe it is for the best, last season was my best ever and I went 131-125-10, not exactly raking in the profits (I managed to go 7-3-1 in the playoffs, but playoff gambling is easier).

The world is also changed in the NFL.

Almost no one seems to have a featured running back anymore. This change has been slowly happening for years, but this year it has gone full force. Anyone who participated in a fantasy football draft this year knows that outside of about 12-15 guys, no one is guaranteed to get carries. That means over half of the teams in the NFL don’t really have a complete starting running back.

After the Ravens playoff run, Ray Lewis is retired, Ed Reed is a Texan and Joe Flacco is now considered a clutch, elite, big-money quarterback.

I think upwards of 400 players tore their ACLs in training camp in what I can only assume is an effort to be more like Adrian Peterson.

And hopes are high in Washington, D.C. for the Redskins – not just the rabid fans who believed Steve Spurrier was going to guide them to greatness, but even the pessimistic cynical assholes like myself.

Now it’s time to try to make sense of these betting lines. And apologies, I had no time to edit this post.

Last season (including playoffs): 138-128-11

Home team in CAPS

Ravens (+7.5) over BRONCOS

When these two met in January the Broncos were favored by 9.5 points, but the Ravens won and went on to become Super Bowl champs. I realize the Ravens are a bit of a changed team since the Super Bowl, but the Broncos have issues of their own. Both Von Miller and Champ Bailey will be out, so there is no reason to think the Ravens can’t score with Denver, at least enough to keep it close.

Patriots (-9) over BILLS

Lock of the Week

I have two friends that are Bills fans, which means they get made fun of by some of my other friends. I’ll let a few of their lines do the talking.

From a Pats fan - "Alright, our rookie QB who missed some of preseason recovering from knee surgery is starting! Let's get excited!" - Bills fans

From a realistic Bills fan - I don't mind people making fun of the Bills. It's all totally deserved.

STEELERS (-7) over Titans

Let’s be clear about something right now. The Steelers are not good, they are just better than the Titans.

SAINTS (-3) over Falcons

Maybe I’m overplaying the importance of Sean Payton’s return and how excited the Superdome will be, but I see the Saints coming out hot. I still think Atlanta is the better team, but not on Sunday.

Buccaneers (-3) over JETS

It almost seems like the Jets are trying to turn into an even bigger train wreck this year than they were last year. I’m not sure that it’s possible, but I respect that they are trying.

Chiefs (-4) over JAGUARS

Jacksonville, where the best thing that can happen to your season is getting the final confirmation that Blaine Gabbert does not deserve another shot.

Bengals (+3) over BEARS

I can’t wait to see all the things Marc Trestman and the Bears incorporate from his time in Canada. Poutine, maple syrup, Mounties, Inuit drum dancing, the Quebec sovereignty movement, and of course, actual Bears.

BROWNS (-1) over Dolphins

If anyone is forced to somehow watch both this game and the Chiefs vs. Jaguars game, they will likely stop watching football for the rest of the season.

PANTHERS (+3.5) over Seahawks

Seattle ended last season really hot and had a very active offseason. Everyone is in love with them, so it follows that they will probably miss the playoffs.

LIONS (-5) over Vikings

There is no way that Adrian Peterson can overcome Christian Ponder again this season.

COLTS (-9.5) over Raiders

If you froze a Raiders fan in the early 1980s and thawed him out today, he’d likely be more confused and upset than John Spartan coming out of CryoPrison in San Angeles. But slightly less confused and upset than someone watching Demolition Man.

Cardinals (+4.5) over RAMS

Arizona, where Carson Palmer is a HUGE upgrade at the quarterback position. It should be noted that Carson Palmer is warm garbage.

49ERS (-4.5) over Packers

Hey, how about that, a really good football game. Fun times.

Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS

The best part about this game is that either the Cowboys or Giants will start the season 0-1.

REDSKINS (-3.5) over Eagles

On a neutral field the Redskins are only half-point favorites over the Eagles? They have a completely new offense and a completely new defense. Maybe I’m being a homer on this one, but this line seems about a point, point-and-a-half too small.

Texans (-4) over CHARGERS

It’s probably going to be a lot of fun watch Philip Rivers reactions now that the Chargers are legitimately crappy.