Week 16: Race to .500 Coming Down to the Wire

The worst game of the year, a game with no meaning between two terrible teams very late in the season is on prime time TV tonight. Even from a fantasy standpoint this game is completely worthless. If you are in your championship and counting on a player from either the Titans or Jags, you should lose. That’s how worthless these teams and this game are. Primetime! The NFL!

Last Week: 9-6-1
Lock of the Week: 9-6
Season: 108-112-3 (race to .500 will be tight!)

Home team in CAPS

Watching home birth tapes (+4) over watching Jags vs. Titans

Titans (+4) over JAGS

I’ll take the points I guess. Let’s move on.

Eagles (-7.5) over REDSKINS

There are two teams that your sanity would be called into question if you bet on them. The Redskins and Bears. Although, at the same time if the Redskins somehow won one of their last two games it wouldn’t really shock me, but that’s only because nothing they can do would shock me at this point.

Chargers (+1) over 49ERS

I’m 12-1-1 in picking 49ers games on the season, and yet I have no feel for this game whatsoever. Both teams have put up a curious slate of results and are capable of not showing up. Since Harbaugh already has a foot out of the door and there is nothing at stake for the 49ers, I’ll take San Diego to stay alive in the playoff race.

Vikings (+6.5) over DOLPHINS

Minnesota seems to play games close these days.

BUCCANEERS (+10.5) over Packers

While I do think the Packers will look to blow someone out after losing in Buffalo, the fact is they just aren’t very good on the road, 2-5 against the spread to be exact. This spread is a bit too large.

Lions (-8.5) over BEARS

Jimmy Clausen will fix all of the Bears problems.

Falcons (+6) over SAINTS

You could call this the biggest game of the week in some ways, which is pretty sad in a lot of ways.

Patriots (-10) over JETS

The Jets usually play the Patriots close, but I don’t know if the Jets have been quite this bad in any of those past situations.

Chiefs (+3) over STEELERS

Who knows what to expect, it’s a Steelers game.

Browns (+3) over PANTHERS

There is no way Johnny Football plays as badly as he did last week, right?

Ravens (-5) over TEXANS
Lock of the Week

The Texans are down their top three quarterbacks. That might be a bit of a problem.

RAMS (-5.5) over Giants

Any team that let the Redskins hang around the entire game and probably should have been behind for much of the game should lose handily against a regular team. The Rams defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in three straight games, so I can’t see the one weapon Giants putting much up on the board.

Bills (-6) over RAIDERS

Buffalo! Winning record! (still no playoffs)

Colts (+3) over COWBOYS

Where is my Cowboys collapse?

CARDINALS (+8) over Seahawks

There is no denying how well the Seahawks have been playing lately, but the Cardinals are still undefeated at home. I’m not going to pick against an undefeated home team getting more than a touchdown in the spread regardless of who they are playing.

Broncos (-3) over BENGALS

The Bengals need to lose to make the last week in the AFC North super exciting.

Week 15: The Redskins Are Sad

Of all the things I might have guessed about the Redskins this year, I don’t think I would have predicted they would appear at perhaps their most dysfunctional ever. I mentioned this some last week, but at this point nothing would surprise me with them. And as they slide further into some sort of twilight zone alternate dimension of reality I remain a fan, but I have almost completely removed myself from caring. Watching Redskins games is more like a comedy of errors than a sporting event. What sort of tragedy will befall them next?

So, with my lifelong favorite team in ruins I turn elsewhere, to gambling and fantasy sports and the Wizards of basketball to satisfy my desire to cheer for things that will disappoint me, because the Redskins are so far gone they are not capable of evoking disappointment.

Last week: 7-8-1
Lock of the week: 8-6
Season: 99-106-2

Home team in CAPS

RAMS (-4.5) over Cardinals

The Rams have posted two straight shut outs. The Cardinals are much better than the Raiders and Redskins collectively, but still they aren’t good enough to stop what the Rams are doing right now.

CHIEFS (-10) over Raiders

Kansas City lost to Oakland three weeks ago, so the Chiefs will be looking to make a statement and get revenge. Plus, after Oakland’s last win they were completely lifeless the next week. I expect the Raiders to be a bit too happy with themselves and the Chiefs to be fired up.

RAVENS (-13.5) over Jaguars

I already dislike myself for picking two straight double-digit point favorites. BUT, the Jags are 0-3-1 against the spread as double-digit dogs and 0-9-1 against the spread when getting five or more points. That is crazy, when Vegas thinks the Jags will lose big, they lose REALLY big.

FALCONS (+2.5) over Steelers

You can’t figure Pittsburgh out. Don’t try to. I picked the Falcons here because the Steelers losing to someone they should beat and losing their playoff spot as a result seems like the right outcome for this team.

COLTS (-6.5) over Texans

Possibly my least favorite game on the board this week. My gut says the Colts are considerably better, but the Texans have been good against the spread all year and the line movement also favors Houston. I’ll go with my gut here, but stay away with my money.

Bengals (+1) over BROWNS

I don’t believe in Johnny Football, especially against a defense that is capable of creating pressure and forcing the quarterback to make quick decisions.

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Dolphins

It is so hard to bet against the Patriots at home late in the season. So hard that I will not do it.

Buccaneers (+3) over PANTHERS

Tampa Bay gets to face Derek Anderson twice this year. Too bad for them they are Tampa Bay so it doesn’t really matter who they are facing, but they’ll even out to a 1-1 record against him on the year.

GIANTS (-6.5) over Redskins
Lock of the Week

I don’t envision any possible way in which things can go well for the Redskins. They could start any one of their three quarterbacks and I don’t think the team even has any idea who the starter will be. That is not the best way to get prepared for a game. But if RG3 gets the start that seems like a clear sign that Gruden is on his way out after one year. Is it time to get excited and/or nervous about the Art Briles Redskins?

BILLS (+5) over Packers

Green Bay is not great at covering on the road and the Bills have covered three straight games looking pretty good. The biggest reason to bet on Buffalo is that all the public is betting on Green Bay and yet the line is still shrinking.

LIONS (-8) over Vikings

Since Jim Caldwell is an offensive coach, or possibly a statue, I think Teryl Austin should be getting a lot more praise. The Lions have the top ranked scoring defense and the second ranked defense in yardage with a first year defensive coordinator taking over for established NFL defensive minds.

Jets (-2) over TITANS

Gross

Broncos (-4) over CHARGERS

With San Diego’s tough schedule and Pittsburgh’s Pittsburghery I see both of those teams falling out of the playoffs, but I ran through the playoff scenario generator and find it very hard for both of them to miss out unless the Chiefs win out, which I also see as unlikely.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over 49ers

Seattle is back and they will probably win the Super Bowl.

EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys

So Dallas won’t go down in quick the flaming wreck that I imagined, but them just missing the playoffs will be a nice consolation prize.

Saints (-3) over BEARS

I said after the Saints needed overtime to beat Tampa in week 5 that I wouldn’t pick them again this season. Chicago sucks so hard that I have to go back on that word.

Week 14: How Will the Redskins Ruin Next Season?

Last Week: 6-10
Lock of the Week: 7-6
Season: 92-98-1

Home team in CAPS

BEARS (+4) over Cowboys

I might have picked 30 teams over the Bears this week, but I’m going against the Cowboys until they prove they won’t have a spectacular end of the season collapse.

Ravens (+3) over DOLPHINS
Lock of the Week

I’m sure this is swaying my opinion more than it really should, but I have a tough time picking a team that just barely beat the Jets to cover a spread against a decent team. The Ravens are better and this is essentially a playoff game, so I’ll take the better team.

BENGALS (-3.5) over Steelers

I am 2-10 in picking Steelers games this season. Nothing I can research, say, or do will make me have any clue how they will play.

Colts (-3.5) over BROWNS

Starting Johnny Football would have been just about the dumbest move ever, right? I can’t believe more people weren’t saying this. Hoyer isn’t great, but he is the one that brought the team to where they are now with a legit shot at the playoffs. Benching a QB while in the middle of a playoff race is only something you do if the QB is abysmal. Now, if the Browns lose this game their playoff hopes are nearly gone anyways and Manziel might get a couple starts to end the season.

TEXANS (-6) over Jags

I can’t see Jacksonville following up a win with another solid performance. Of course, I can’t see Ryan Fitzpatrick having back-to-back good games either, so expect some sort of ugly 16-3 game.

TITANS (even) over Giants

Hey New York, at least you have that Odell Beckham Jr. catch…

Panthers (+9.5) over SAINTS

I can’t accept the Saints by double-digits, even against the horrible, horrible Panthers.

REDSKINS (+3) over Rams

I have zero faith in this pick whatsoever, but for some reason I’m making it. How do you think the Redskins will ruin their offseason?

1. Keep RG3, fire Gruden, hire Art Briles and relive the Spurrier years?
2. Trade RG3, their No. 5-7 pick, their second round pick, and next year’s No. 1 pick to draft Mariota, then watch him be a bust?
3. Repeat scenario b, only with Jameis Winston.
4. Acquire Andy Dalton after he flames out in the playoffs again to reunite him with Gruden. Spend far too much money on him and then watch him continue to not be very good.
5. Make no changes and spend the entire 2015 season toggling between QBs.

The fact that all five are such incredibly realistic options hurts.

Buccaneers (+10) over LIONS

As terrible as Tampa has been, they’ve covered every time that they have been a big underdog this season.

VIKINGS (-6) over Jets

Hey New York, at least you have that Odell Beckham Jr. catch… wait, that doesn’t really work here. Go Mets? No? Go Nets? Not really? Go Rangers? No? Knicks? Nope? Yankees? Still no? Islanders? What’s that, no one really cares about the Islanders? Ok.

BRONCOS (-9.5) over Bills

Denver seems to have moved on from its few weeks of not being able to score a metric shit ton of points.

CARDINALS (-1) over Chiefs

What’s the over/under? If it’s more than 10, I might take the under. (So KC will win 39-35).

RAIDERS (-8) over 49ers

Bounce back week in Oakland? Luckily this statement almost has to be true as just about anything could be considered a bounce back when compared to a 52-0 loss.

Seahawks (+1) over EAGLES

Is the whole season kind of played for no reason? Are we going to end it thinking Seattle is the best team in the league, just like we started it? I think we might.

Patriots (-3.5) over CHARGERS

I like the Pats coming off a loss and I think it’s about time the Chargers ran out of gas. They very nearly lost two straight weeks, they don’t have enough magic to keep in going.

PACKERS (-12.5) over Falcons

This is too many points, I don’t like picking big favorites, but I don’t really see a way around it. Atlanta is really bad on the road and Green Bay is just about the hardest place to play.

Week 13: Watchable Thursday Football

The only day of the year that Thursday football is not a giant pain in the ass!

Last week: 7-7
Lock of the week: 7-5
Season: 86-88-1

Home team in CAPS

LIONS (-7) over Bears

I know the Lions offense had kind of sputtered out, but I don’t care. Jay Cutler playing in a short week seems like a great opportunity for 4 turnovers. The Lions defense will tie the Bears offense and the Lions offense will add another 14.

Eagles (+3) over COWBOYS

I’m sticking to my prediction that the Cowboys will fall apart in the second half of the season. If they win this game and improve to 9-3, it would be really hard for them to fall apart (but all the more spectacular when they do). Still, the Cowboys defense seems like it could fall apart at any time and the Eagles are a great candidate to expose them.

Seahawks (+1) over 49ERS

I don’t like betting on the Seahawks on the road, they’ve been pretty terrible outside of Seattle this year, but the 49ers have been disappointing at home. Ultimately this game has a lot of playoff implications and Seattle is still the better team, so they will prevail.

COLTS (-9.5) over Redskins

It appears the RG3 era is over in Washington as Colt McCoy is starting this game. Not shockingly, Washington is home to the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL and perhaps all of sports right now. I still think RG3 could be good, but his time in D.C. is clearly over. I even think Cousins is still worth a look, the guy has only started 8 games, but Gruden has turned to McCoy because he gives him the best chance to win right now (which is sad), and he probably feels like he needs to win to save his job. The Redskins will likely draft Winston this spring and then repeat this entire process. #HTTR:(

Titans (+6.5) over TEXANS

Who is starting at quarterback for Houston? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Tom Savage? I’ll take points in a matchup of crappy QBs.

Browns (+2.5) over BILLS

At some point the Browns will lose a game to blow their shot at the playoffs, but I think that won’t come until they really look like they have a strong chance to make it.

RAVENS (-5.5) over Chargers

In fact, maybe all of the AFC North teams will win 10 games. That’d be fun.

JAGUARS (+2.5) over Giants

I’m not sure why I’m betting on the Jaguars, so I’m not going to second guess myself by looking up “stats” or “thinking about it.”

Raiders (+7) over RAMS

Oakland covers TD and bigger spreads. Oakland is 4-1 against the spread on the road. Oakland is not as bad as they seem.

Bengals (-4) over BUCCANEERS

There is too much of the public on the Bengals, and that frightens me, BUT Tampa hasn’t won a game or covered a spread at home and the AFC North is 300 times better than the NFC South.

STEELERS (-4) over Saints

I’ll keep going with the AFC North and against the Saints, but I hate betting on the Steelers. You never have any idea what kind of team is going to show up.

VIKINGS (-3) over Panthers

I hope the NFC South teams lose every game that is not against one another so that a playoff team can be 6-10.

Cardinals (-2.5) over FALCONS
Lock of the Week

It is clear that I will pick against the NFC South when presented with a reasonable opportunity. This opportunity seems the most reasonable of them all. The Cardinals have the best secondary in the league and should force Atlanta to run the ball, which they cannot do.

Patriots (+3) over PACKERS

I know the Packers have been good, but there is just no way to pick against New England right now.

CHIEFS (+1.5) over Broncos

I’ll take Kansas City with points at home. Andy Reid gave us his Andy Reid game last week, so I think they can avoid implosion and find a way to win.

Dolphins (-6) over JETS

The Jets appear to have given up on the season. It is not a smart idea to bet on teams that have given up.

Week 12: Real Jobs Cut Into Crappy Blogs

It's Friday morning and I have not looked at lines or picked any games yet. That means I did not pick last night's game (my guess is I'd have picked the Raiders as I've picked them every time they've been a big underdog, but I can't award myself a point for that). It also means I'm not going to do anything this week but post my picks without commentary. Really this is just for record keeping, next week I full have a full post on Wednesday.

Last week: 9-5
Lock of the Week: 7-4
Season: 79-82-1

Home team in CAPS

Browns (+3) over FALCONS

EAGLES (-11) over Titans

PATRIOTS (-7) over Lions

Packers (-9.5) over VIKINGS

Jaguars (+14) over COLTS

TEXANS (-2) over Bengals

Buccaneers (+6) over BEARS

LOCK OF THE WEEK

SEAHAWKS (-7) over Cardinals

CHARGERS (-4.5) over Rams

Dolphins (+7) over BRONCOS

49ERS (-9) over Redskins

GIANTS (+3.5) over Cowboys

Ravens (+3.5) over SAINTS

Jets (+2) over BUFFALO (in Detroit)

This game is in Detroit because Buffalo still needs to remove 220,000 TONS OF SNOW from Ralph Wilson Stadium. This is what it looked like outside the stadium on Thursday.

Week 11: Already Behind

Not the best start to my picks last night, but still got room to improve. Not a lot of time this week, so write ups will likely be quick.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 6-7
Lock of the Week: 7-3
Season: 70-77-1

Home team in CAPS

Texans (+3) over BROWNS

Everything says to pick Cleveland here, except for the fact that they are Cleveland and couldn’t possibly hold onto first place in their division. They’ll follow up arguably their best game of the season with something that will look close to their worst. Yes, betting against a QB getting his first start ever in Ryan Mallet is super tempting, but it’s not like Mallet will be a major downgrade from Fitzpatrick.

Vikings (+3) over BEARS

Chicago hasn’t covered as a favorite or at home yet this season. Shockingly, through 9 games they have played six on the road, so if they actually were good at home they’d be poised for a nice late season run.

PACKERS (-6) over EAGLES

I don’t yet believe that Mark Sanchez on the road can keep up with Aaron Rodgers at home.

CHIEFS (-2) over Seahawks

Kansas City has come a long way from the team that got blown out by the Titans opening week. This is the first time the Seahawks have been underdogs this season and they are coming off their best game since their opener. If Seattle wins this game, they are back to form and the Super Bowl favorites, but not ready to pick them yet.

PANTHERS (-1) over Falcons
Lock of the Week

I don’t see any possible way the Falcons can win back-to-back road games. I get that Carolina is bad, but Atlanta is still just as bad. And my God, this entire division is a sham.

Bengals (+7) over SAINTS

Cincinnati has been rolled their last two games on the road and looked terrible last week against the Browns. Meanwhile, the Saints are still pretty solid at home BUT they aren’t great and I think they are overvalued here.

Buccaneers (+7) over REDSKINS

I fully believe the Redskins will win this game, but it will come down to the wire. I can’t take them with seven points.

Broncos (-9.5) over RAMS

Beating up on mediocre and bad teams is what Peyton Manning and the Broncos do.

49ers (-4) over GIANTS

I think San Francisco is just good enough to hang around until the end of the season. They aren’t a good team, but the Giants aren’t the ones to take advantage of that.

RAIDERS (+10) over Chargers

I am 100% off the Chargers bandwagon. The Raiders nearly won their earlier meeting and should keep this one close.

CARDINALS (-1.5) over Lions

I’m not sure how much it matters who the Cardinals quarterback is. Losing Palmer may knock them down a peg, but they are still better than most teams.

COLTS (-3) over Patriots

The Pats have been great lately, but they’ve also played their last three games at home. They aren’t the same team on the road and Luck will rise to the challenge of a shootout vs. Brady.

Steelers (-6) over TITANS

As much as I can’t figure out the Steelers at all, I do believe the Titans are terrible. Tennessee hasn’t covered a spread at home yet and Roethlisberger tends to play well in night games, Pitt will bounce back and then suck in a game in the near future.

Week 11: Thursday Only

Haven't had time to get to all my picks yet, but here's what I got for tonight.

Last Week: 6-7
Lock of the Week: 7-3
Season: 70-76-1

Home team in CAPS

Bills (+4.5) over DOLPHINS

This is essentially an elimination game for both teams, if you fall to 5-5 in the AFC, you will likely have to win out to make it to the playoffs and neither of these teams are going on a six game winning streak. I don’t know who will win, I think Miami is a better team, but both have actually both been better against the spread when on the road.

Week 10: No Subtitles?

Maybe it is the way the year is going, maybe it is how much less football I’ve watched this year, or maybe this just the way the NFL always is now, but I don’t feel as if I have any handle on which teams are really good this year. Teams can look terrible or great any given week and having expectations for a team might be the most dangerous gambling mistake you can make.

Nearly every team has won a game by double digits and lost a game by double digits. I’ll give you a complete list of teams that have not – Jets (legitimately bad), Raiders (legitimately bad), Buccaneers (legitimately bad), Rams (their three wins are by a total of seven points), Eagles (always in it until the end), and Seahawks (possibly a few tweaks away from returning to form). The other 26 teams have all been soundly beaten at least once and beaten a team soundly at least once, even the Jags have a double-digit win.

Nothing makes less sense than the AFC North, every team is above .500 and at one point each of the four teams has looked like they have no business being in the playoff conversation. With the exception of Cleveland, they have each looked like they are clearly the best team in the division as well.

So, who the fuck knows what’s going on? Let’s put some money on games anyways.

Last week: 8-5
Lock of the Week: 6-3
Season: 64-68-1
Home team in CAPS

Browns (+6) over BENGALS

After a three game stretch against the worst three teams in the league, the Browns came away with a minus three point differential. As I mentioned, nothing in the AFC North makes sense. I won’t be betting on any of their divisional games from here on out, but forced to pick I say this is still too many points despite the Browns recent struggles.

Jaguars (+6.5) over Cowboys (game in London)

Tony Romo really shouldn’t play (but he might) and I’ll take points against Brandon Weeden all day, I don’t care what continent we’re on.

Dolphins (+3) over LIONS

Detroit cost me money by winning but not covering in each of their last two games. That is some annoying shit Detroit. This game should be telling for the Lions, who look to have Calvin Johnson back and is important for both teams as there isn’t a lot of room for error in the playoff race.

BILLS (+2) over Chiefs

I think the Chiefs are probably the better team, but this game seems like a pick ‘em in Buffalo to me. I’ll take the points if they are being given out.

49ers (+4.5) over SAINTS

My faith in the Saints has not been restored. They have covered in three straight and I’ve stupidly bet against them each time, but as soon as I start picking them they’ll look terrible. I’ve lost more bets involving the Saints than any other team. You aren’t fooling me into gambling on you yet New Orleans! In fact, I don’t care how the line swings, I will not bet on this game.

Titans (+9.5) over RAVENS

Too many points for a team with back-to-back losses. Can’t do it.

Steelers (-5) over JETS

This line has moved 3.5 points already since opening. I can’t wrap my head around why it opened so low. It will probably keep travelling up until it gets close to seven. At what point is it too high? I don’t know. Seems like savvy gamblers will make good money middling this game.

BUCCANEERS (+1.5) over Falcons

When most people see this game they probably immediately think of the drubbing the Falcons put on the Bucs earlier this year. In reality both teams are terrible and the home team getting points has to be the play. Curiously, the Falcons are 0-4 against the spread as the road team and the Bucs are 0-4 against the spread as the home team. Something’s gotta give!

RAIDERS (+11.5) over Broncos

Very real chance Denver wins by 40 because Peyton wants to score as many points as possible after getting beat by the Pats again, but the Raiders have covered every game they have been given seven or more points, so I’ll stick with them.

CARDINALS (-7) over Rams

I don’t believe the Rams are capable of putting together back-to-back good games.

Giants (+9) over SEAHAWKS

The last time either of these teams covered was week 5. Gross.

PACKERS (-7) over Bears
Lock of the Week

Chicago is terrible right? It seems like they are terrible.

EAGLES (-6) over Panthers

I have no idea how to factor in the Sanchize, but I feel as if the Eagles are just a much better team than Carolina. That should be enough.

Week 9: Back Where I Belong

Now we are back in Gamblor’s comfort zone. For a while there I was flirting with a winning record, but after three straight losing weeks I’m solidly below average again – gotta keep those expectations low. In addition to my poor performance in the blog, I’ve lost money on nine of my last ten bets with the only win being a 2nd half line. This means one of three things, either I’m due or I’m terrible OR, most likely, the NFL is impossible to predict.

When unsure this week, I’m going against whatever the consensus pick is, which probably means lots of underdogs for this guy.

Last Week: 6-8
Lock of the week: 6-2
Season: 56-63-1

Home team in CAPS

PANTHERS (+3) over Saints
Lock of the Week

The Saints are still terrible on the road, no matter how many points they put up against the Packers at home last week. The sad thing is that this game is somehow for first place in the NFC South and that one of these two teams will host a playoff game.

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Chargers

Miami is one of those teams that might be better on the road at home, but I’ll still take them here. San Diego hasn’t looked nearly as good in their last four games as they did in their first four.

Jaguars (+11) over BENGALS

Buccaneers (+6.5) over BROWNS

Yeah, I just picked two of the worst teams in the league on the road. No, I don’t feel particularly good about it. But neither Cincinnati nor Cleveland has played strong enough recently for me to believe in them either.

VIKINGS (even) over Redskins

I’m shocked that the Vikings were ever favored (line came to even after RG3 announcement). I thought people would overplay the importance of their win in Dallas and they’d be giving three points. I also thought and think they will totally blow this game. And with RG3 it is almost a guarantee they lose. This way heading into the bye week people in D.C. can start saying how Colt McCoy should be the quarterback and that he runs the offense better than Griffin. All of these things will happen and I will be very annoyed.

TEXANS (+2) over Eagles

This line seems too small. I’m trusting Vegas and betting against the trend.

Jets (+9.5) over CHIEFS

Is Vick still really fast? I don’t even know anymore. He could rush for 85 yards and 2 TDs or rush for 6 yards and throw three picks and neither situation would surprise me in the slightest.

Cardinals (+4) over COWBOYS

I believe the Cardinals are the best team in the NFC at the moment. With Tony Romo not 100% I have to imagine their defense will be able to replicate some of the success that the Redskins had on Monday.

Rams (+10) over 49ERS

What has San Francisco done to be a double-digit favorite?

Broncos (-3) over PATRIOTS

Maybe it’s because I don’t follow the NFL anywhere near as close as I have in the past or maybe it’s because this week also had a great World Series and the start of the NBA season, but the Brady vs. Manning hype seems severely turned down this week. This is not a complaint.

Raiders (+15) over SEAHAWKS

Oakland is 3-1 when they are an over six point underdog. Meanwhile Seattle is 1-3 as a six-plus point favorite.

Ravens (even) over STEELERS

Apparently every few games the Steelers look like one of the best teams in the league, but most of the time they are the least talented team in their division. Luckily, since the Steelers were awesome last week the line is not where it should be and I get to bet the Ravens.

Colts (-3) over GIANTS

The Colts defense was due to get torched, but I don’t see any way in which the Giants could get anywhere close to repeating what the Steelers did last week. I also don’t see any way in which they can keep pace with Luck and the Colts.

Week 8: This Will Never Work

I ain't got time for intros, but fair warning, I like too many games this week.

Last Week: 5-10
Lock of the Week: 6-1
Season: 50-55-1

Home team in CAPS

Chargers (+8.5) over BRONCOS
I think if this game took place one week ago the line would have been 5.5. I’m betting on overreaction to a Chargers loss and to Peyton having his best game of the season. The Chargers lost to Andy Reid after the bye, everyone does that. Peyton had a huge game because he, and the whole team, got up for Peyton to get the record. San Diego is too good to be that big of an underdog.

Lions (-3.5) over Falcons

Technically the Falcons are the home team, but this game is London. Unless they moved the Georgia Dome to London, you can bet on the fact that Matt Ryan won’t play well. If I weren’t a bit scared that absolutely anything could happen in a London game, this would be my lock of the week.

Vikings (+3) over BUCCANEERS

Sure, neither team is good, but aren’t the Vikings at least a little bit better? Tampa has looked terrible when I’ve had the misfortune of watching them play, I won’t bet on them as a favorite (except maybe against the Jags or Raiders, but even then I’m not sure).

Bears (+6) over PATRIOTS

Everything is telling me to bet on the Patriots, so I’m picking the Bears.

CHIEFS (-7) over Rams

St. Louis seems due for a letdown after last week and the Chiefs have dominated both their home games thus far this season.

PANTHERS (+5) over Seahawks

It appears we can’t trust Seattle on the road right now. The funny thing is despite losing back to back games and being 1.5 games out of the playoffs, I still think they might be the best team in the league. And yes, I’m still picking against them.

JETS (-3) over Bills

No one in the AFC East is allowed to get two wins above .500. It’s a rule aging Tom Brady made with the devil to ensure that he gets to the playoffs from now until the apocalypse, which will occur in 2028 when Pitbull is elected president.

Dolphins (-6) over JAGUARS

Miami seems to be better on the road than at home, plus there is no way Jacksonville can put up two consecutive solid performances.

Texans (-2.5) over TITANS

Tennessee is starting Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The thought of a rookie 6th round pick going against J.J. Watt frightens me. I think it is possible Watt outscores the Titans. Also, Clowney might come back for this game, that can’t help Mettenberger either.

Ravens (even) over BENGALS without A.J. GREEN

BENGALS with A.J. GREEN (even) over Ravens

The Bengals will find their swagger again this season, but it probably won’t happen until Green is playing.

Eagles (+2.5) over CARDINALS

This game should be really interesting and has a lot of importance to the playoff race, yet for some reason it comes across as very boring to me. I think the Cardinals will slip in the second half of the season and miss the playoffs; this seems like as good a time as any for that to start.

Colts (-3) over STEELERS

Lock of the Week

The weird line of the week. Doesn’t it seem like the Colts should be favored by more? Have the Steelers done anything of note? They won last week, but most of their points came in a three minute span when Houston just handed them the game. Big Ben can’t keep pace with Luck, no way. Weird lines usually mean bet on the side that makes no sense, but I won’t be doing that, not in this one.

Raiders (+7) over BROWNS

The Raiders are the master of the cover and lose.

Packers (+1.5) over SAINTS

Sure, the Saints are better at home than on the road, but in their last home game they needed OT to beat the Bucs. I don’t trust the Saints, and as I said last week I won’t pick them again this season unless they go on a big winning streak (at which point they’d make the playoffs because the NFC South is terrible and I’d probably forget about how bad they’ve been, bet big on them in the playoffs and lose money. Gambling is fun!)

Redskins (+9.5) over COWBOYS

It’s almost always a good idea to take the underdog when these two play. I hope the Redskins aren’t stupid and don’t play RG3 this game. Their season is over, don’t rush him back. I’d sit him at least a week after he is 100%. If he gets injured again that might be the end of it. Does 7% of me secretly hope he plays and leads the Skins to nine straight wins to end the season or something like that a la 2012, yes. But that is stupid, we don’t listen to that 7%.

Week 7: Holt Shit, It's Already Week 7

At this point in the season enough time has gone by (It is already week 7! What happened?) that Vegas knows the teams and the betting trends well. If a line looks weird, it probably means you should bet the opposite of what you think. But I also probably shouldn't drink as much as I do. Sometimes good ideas aren't meant to be followed.

Last Week: 6-8-1
Lock of the Week: 6-0
Season: 45-45-1

Home team in CAPS

Jets (+9.5) over PATRIOTS

I might be dooming myself by picking a bad team on the road in a Thursday game, but the Jets tend to play the Pats close more often than not and I’m still not sold on any level of consistency from New England.

UPDATE: I forgot two games
Panthers (+7) over PACKERS

Carolina just tied Cincinnati in Cincy as seven point underdogs. I think the Bengals are probably better than the Packers, so Carolina seems like a really smart pick here. Does that mean it's wrong? Maybe. I thought they were a smart pick when they got destroyed by Pittsburgh too, but I'm going with it.

Seahawks (+6.5) over RAMS

No way Seattle doesn't bounce back and murder the Rams.

Bengals (+3) over COLTS

The Bengals will right the ship. They played too good for the first few weeks and below what they are capable of recently, they are a much more complete team than Indy, and should reestablish that fact on Sunday.

Titans (+5.5) over REDSKINS

This line is just a smidgen too big. Washington is likely a better team than Tennessee, but don’t deserve to be favored by any more than four points. (Last time I said Washington was favored by more points than they deserved they won by about a billion).

BEARS (-3) over Dolphins

Chicago has been bad at home. If they hope to contend for a playoff spot they need to win games like this.

Browns (-5.5) over JAGUARS

I really wanted to bet on Cleveland when this line opened at three, but I didn't and it has continued to rise. I’ll still pick the Browns, but I’m considerably less confident than I was 2.5 points ago.

RAVENS (-7) over Falcons

For some reason the site I use to get the gambling lines always lists BAL-RB-Ray Rice-OUT under all Ravens games. He is no longer on the team any more, why do they still have this alert? Hey, also, NYJ-QB-Joe Namath-OUT.

BILLS (-5.5) over Vikings

The Vikings have not played a single game that didn't result in a double-digit victory or loss this season. Makes for some boring football up north.

LIONS (-3) over Saints

Unless they rattle off four or five straight covers, I’m not picking the Saints again this season. I’m disgusted with them.

CHARGERS (-4) over Chiefs

Lock of the Week

This line has been trending towards Kansas City and they still have more than half the action. What am I missing? Is this because the Chargers barely beat Oakland last week? Yes, the Chiefs have been silently pretty good since looking like one of the worst teams in the league in Week 1, but the Chargers have been not silently quite good (although their win over the Seahawks is not quite as amazing as it looked at the time after Seattle lost to Dallas in Seattle

Giants (+6.5) over COWBOYS

I’m starting to get slightly worried that the bottom isn't going to drop out on this Cowboys team. I still think it will, but I’m much less confident than I was a week ago.

Cardinals (-3.5) over RAIDERS

I have developed a plan for betting on the Raiders the rest of the season. Large spreads, pick the Raiders. Small spreads, pick against the Raiders. They seem to play games closer than expected, but still always lose.

BRONCOS (-6.5) over 49ers

San Francisco is the most confusing team in the league to me at the moment. They looked ready to regress to average and don’t seem to pass the eye test, but they do seem to win games and are in the playoff picture.

Texans (+3.5) over STEELERS

The Steelers are also confusing. They really seem terrible, but it would not shock me if they came out and won this game by 20 points either, just to keep people unsure.

Week 6: Where I Pick Too Many Favorites

I’ll be honest, last week I paid almost no attention to football because I was focusing on playoff baseball. I know, I’m as surprised as you are. Also, last week I really didn’t like in of the spreads very much (yet I still put up a winning record, showing that it really doesn’t matter too much if I think my picks are a good bet or not).

Last week: 9-6
Lock of the week: 5-0
Season: 39-37

Home team in CAPS

Colts (-3) over TEXANS

The Colts defense is forcing turnovers; they are sustaining a mediocre rushing game; they have only allowed six sacks and 18 hits on Luck through five games (last year they let up the 2nd most QB hits). If they can hold those trends, they will have a shot to compete with the top dogs in the AFC. Of course, it is also possible their offensive line gets eaten alive this game.

JETS (+10) over Broncos

New York opened as only 4.5-point underdogs? How did that happen? Really wish I had bet early this week, but it has now risen to 10. Is that still a good bet? Probably, but I’m staying away from double digit favorites after forgetting that I was doing that last week.

BROWNS (-1.5) over Steelers
The first rematch of the season. Seems early for a rematch. Also seems kinda boring.

TITANS (-6) over Jaguars

One of these days Jacksonville will cover a spread and this may be their best shot, but I don’t see any reason to pick them until after that day comes.

FALCONS (-3) over Bears

Bet on Atlanta at home, bet against Atlanta on the road. Sometimes gambling needs to be simplified, not complicated.

DOLPHINS (+3) over Packers

My thoughts are that the Packers are looking good and Miami is nothing special. My deeper thoughts are that I am 2-7 in my picks on these two teams, so all my instincts about them are wrong. So my action is betting on the team I think will lose.

VIKINGS (+1.5) over Lions

The Lions without a good offense is like Martin with no Gina. I’ll take the home team with the points.

Panthers (+7) over BENGALS

It is entirely possible that Cincinnati wins by 25 points or something, but I expect this game to be close and low scoring.

BILLS (+3) over Patriots

I’m prepared for the next down on the Patriots see-saw season.

Ravens (-3) over BUCCANEERS

Lock of the Week

I had to double check this line. Is this line close because the Bucs almost beat the Saints last week? The Saints are garbage. Almost beating the Saints means nothing. Remember how terrible this Bucs team was the first three weeks of the year. This is still the same team. A team of garbage.

Chargers (-7) over RAIDERS

San Diego is the only team undefeated against the spread. We are at the ride your horses time of year.

SEAHAWKS (-8) over Cowboys

The bad news is that Dallas is 4-1 and it isn’t unrealistic to see them finding a way to make it to 8-2. The good news is that they are the Cowboys and could start 8-2 and find a way to lose their last six games and miss the playoffs. That would be pretty fun.

CARDINALS (-3.5) over Redskins

You are suggesting on a neutral field that the Cardinals would only be favored by a half point against the Redskins? I know Arizona got beat soundly last week, but I feel like I’m missing something. I guess it depends who the Cards will have at QB, but does it really matter?

Giants (+3) over EAGLES

Oh boy I hope the stupid Giants don’t become good this season, but I’m a little bit worried.

49ers (-3.5) over RAMS

I don’t want to pick all the favorites, but these lines are making it hard for me (I’ve already changed multiple of my first instinct picks to get more underdogs in the mix). As much as I still think the 49ers are average this year, their defense should still keep the Rams from doing much of anything.

Week 5: NFC in Review

Week 5, probably the last glimmer hope for the bad teams not based in Jacksonville or Oakland (they are already out of hope). 1-3 is bad, but manageable, 1-4 is basically donezo. So, while I still can find something good to say about each NFC team, let’s take a look at why everyone should be feeling good and feeling bad about their season thus far and their chances in the rest of the year.

Philadelphia Eagles

Good: Your offense is among the most dangerous (when healthy) and last week you found ways to score even when the offense couldn't get going. Plus you play in the NFC East, so you don’t even have to be that good to make the playoffs.

Bad: Your entire offensive line is in shambles. That Chip Kelly offense doesn't look quite as strong when the line can’t block.

Dallas Cowboys

Good: I don’t know how you did it, but you are 3-1. The offense has been scoring as you hoped and the defense has been halfway decent.

Bad: It still seems like the defense is standing on a false floor and eventually they are going to fall. They’ve let up the most yards per play of any defense and has yet to face a good offense (and no, the Saints on the road don’t count).

New York Giants

Good: In the last two games you've forced 9 turnovers. You've started 0-2 and looked really bad before, only to come back and win the Super Bowl.

Bad: Those first two games were everything you feared as Eli was throwing picks like last year. No one knows if you can win a game without the opposing QB trying to give you the ball as much as possible.

Washington Redskins

Good: On the one hand, Cousins has only had one bad game and could still make something of his opportunity. Or, you could say after last game that the way Cousins is playing there won’t be any controversy when RG3 comes back.

Bad: Their next two games are vs. the Seahawks and in Arizona. That looks a lot like 1-5. The special teams aren't quite as bad as last year, but are still probably the worst in the league. The defense hasn't done much outside of the Jags game.

Detroit Lions

Good: First place! And that’s without too much impact from Calvin Johnson (341 yards and 2 TDs is still good, but below his expectations), who you assume will get back to producing at video game levels. The defense has really been the star of the team thus far.

Bad: Remember that you were 3-1 last season as well. Your final two games are in Chicago and Green Bay and your coach is still Jim Caldwell, gotta think that ends up biting you at some point. Sounds like a recipe for another late season Detroit collapse.

Green Bay Packers

Good: Three of your games have been on the road and you've won twice with zero rushing game thus far.

Bad: The zero rushing game this far looks like it is a problem. Also, the defense is struggling.

Chicago Bears

Good: It seems like the NFC North is going to be a battle all year and come down to the last few weeks. With healthy receivers you should have as good of a chance as anyone in the bunch.

Bad: Have you watched Devin Hester in Atlanta? Remember all those years you couldn't find out how to get him involved in the offense?

Minnesota Vikings

Good: Teddy Bridgewater looks competent and like he will give you a better chance of winning than Matt Cassel. The running game went off for 241 yards last week without Peterson.

Bad: Remember how you handled the Adrian Peterson situation?

Carolina Panthers

Good: Defense looked really good for two games

Bad: Offense looked pretty bad for four games, defense looked bad for two as well.

Atlanta Falcons

Good: Home games

Bad: Away games

New Orleans Saints

Good: Home games

Bad: Away games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good: Week 4

Bad: The rest

Arizona Cardinals

Good: The defense has been playing out of its mind. Everyone knows about the secondary, but really it has been the play against the run (helped by being able to leave secondary to operate one-on-one).

Bad: You lead the league in first downs gained by penalty and you’ve played one less game than most of the league. That kind of luck won’t continue.

Seattle Seahawks

Good: You are probably going to win the Super Bowl again.

Bad: The expectations are unrealistically high.

San Francisco 49ers

Good: Take away the dumb penalties and you are at least 3-1, if not 4-0.

Bad: Nothing is exciting about your team anymore. The offense is stale, the defense is slipping and you seem to be incredibly mistake prone.

St. Louis Rams

Good: Expectations were lowered after the Bradford injury.

Bad: After another Bradford injury the team probably isn't ready to give up on him (unless Austin Davis turns out to be the answer).

Last Week: 6-7
Lock of the Week: 4-0
Season: 30-31

Home team in CAPS

Vikings (+8) over PACKERS

This line definitely seems too high, so much so that I’m really tempted to take the Packers, but I’ll trust my instincts (and probably regret it). If Bridgewater doesn’t play, all bets are off though.

Bears (+2.5) over PANTHERS

I have no idea who the Panthers are this season. After the first two games everyone looked stupid for thinking they’d regress. Now everyone looks stupid for doubting themselves.

Browns (+2) over TITANS

Lock of the Week
Not going to do research on this game to second guess myself. The Browns have looked much better than the Titans in my mind, hanging with solid to decent teams regardless of where they play – it makes sense (in my mind) for them to then beat a bad team.

EAGLES (-7) over Rams

The Eagles get an offensive lineman back on Sunday, which means they should have three offensive lineman starting in their proper positions instead of just one. This should be enough to get their offense back on track.

GIANTS (-4) over Falcons

The Giants don’t deserve to be favored by four, but I will not take Matt Ryan on the road unless the line is insane. At home this season he has six TDs and no interceptions with an adjusted yards per attempt of 12.75. On the road he had four TDs, five interceptions with 4.52 adjusted yards/per attempt. The Giants have won their last two games because the opposing QB gave them the game; it is likely the same will happen again this week.

SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers

I said last week that I would be giving up on the Saints hopes if they didn't look good against the Cowboys. They looked terrible, but by virtue of their division I can’t give up hopes yet. Going 8-0 at home might have them tied with the also 8-0 at home, 0-8 on the road Falcons.

Texans (+6) over COWBOYS

I refuse to believe the Cowboys are good, it is time for them to put up a stinker.

Bills (+7) over LIONS

Neck beard to the rescue!

Ravens (+3.5) over COLTS

If this line were a half point less I’d be betting on the Colts, but as I can’t pick them favored by over a field goal. I think the Ravens are not quite as good as they seem and will end up closer to .500 than they are on pace for; however, the Colts are also rife with flaws and haven’t beaten anyone who isn’t terrible yet.

Steelers (-6) over JAGUARS

Disclaimer: I am 0-4 on Steelers games this season, so take anything I say about them with even less respect than you would give my normal thoughts. Pittsburgh has got to come out and stomp on Jacksonville after losing to the Bucs, right? There is no way they let two of the worst three teams in the league hang with them for back to back weeks.

Cardinals (+7.5) over BRONCOS

Arizona is undefeated and has the best defense in the league to this point. They should not be underdogs by this many points. No respect.

Chiefs (+6) over 49ERS

Alex Smith revenge game?

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Jets

Have the Jets become the most boring team in football? I have no interest in watching them play. They aren't quite bad enough to be comical, they aren't good enough to be intriguing, they don’t have a single must watch player. At least last year they were a bit of a train wreck. They should bring back Tebow for the coverage.

PATRIOTS (+1) over Bengals

Cincy has been unquestionably the best team through the first four weeks of the season. The Patriots are coming of their worst game in over a decade. There is no reason to pick the Patriots other than simple fear of past year Patriots, the line doesn't make sense to anyone who looks at stats or game tape. For all these reasons, you must take New England.

Seahawks (-7) over REDSKINS

The Giants defense took Kirk Cousins apart. He probably has been having nightmares about the Seahawks defense all week.

Week 4: Good News/Bad News - AFC

Through three weeks of the season, we are starting to get a picture of how the league looks, but there is still a lot to figure out. I’ll list one reason to have a positive outlook for each team and another reason to be worried. This week the AFC teams, next week the NFC.

New England Patriots

Good – You are 2-1 and might have a top-10 defense after years of that portion of your team letting you down. (I’m worried this team looks like the first year of the Brady Patriots.)

Bad – Tom Brady has looked average and the receivers not named Edelman are flat out bad. Additionally, that 2-1 record comes against teams with a collective 2-7 record. You almost lost to the Raiders at home.

Buffalo Bills

Good – How about that 2-0 start?!?! The rushing attack and defense give the Bills a chance to control the game against a lot of teams.

Bad – Reality might be settling in after the hot start. Manuel can’t be relied on when behind or in a close game.

Miami Dolphins

Good – You beat the Patriots! Fuck those guys.

Bad – You also played two other games.

New York Jets

Good – The rest of the division doesn't look great and you seem like you have the ability to stay in games.

Bad – Unfortunately you don’t have the ability to win games.

Cincinnati Bengals

Good – You've looked like the best team in football. You haven’t lost a step despite losing two coordinators. The offense has been solid, even without A.J. Green and the defense has been the best in the league.

Bad – You still haven’t won a playoff game.

Baltimore Ravens

Good – The defense looks solid and it turns out Steve Smith is still pretty good. Additionally, you manhandled your hated rival.

Bad – Everything off the field.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Good – It took a while to get going, but then you put up big points on the vaunted Panthers defense. Also, Antonio Brown is some sort of face-kicking ninja.

Bad – The Ravens beat the shit out of you.

Cleveland Browns

Good – Hoyer looks good and you've had a chance to win every game right down to the very end.

Bad – You are still only 1-2 and idiots are still going to be calling for Johnny Football.

Houston Texans

Good – Hey, you’re in first place and have equaled last year’s win total.

Bad – You also started last year 2-0. Ryan Fitzpatrick reminded you that he’s still the same guy.

Indianapolis Colts

Good – You are third in the league in offense and scoring offense, even Trent Richardson is contributing.

Bad – Despite great offense, you've lost twice because your defense can’t stop anything.

Tennessee Titans

Good – How about that first game!

Bad – The rumors a Jake Locker resurgence were greatly exaggerated. He is warm garbage.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Good – Blake Bortles could be good?

Bad – There is no team to put behind Bortles. You are terrible.

Denver Broncos

Good – You are the only team in the league that could drive down the field on the Seahawks in Seattle with under a minute and no timeouts. Also, most of the AFC sucks, so it should be pretty easy to make it to at least the AFC Championship without a challenge.

Bad – There are still a fair amount of problems on defense, Montee Ball is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry, the general lack of challenge the AFC presents might make you soft for the Super Bowl.

San Diego Chargers

Good – You beat the Seahawks, the defense has been surprisingly solid, Rivers looks good, and if you had held on in week one against the Cardinals, people might say you've been the best team in the league thus far.

Bad – Danny Woodhead is done for the season, and although he hadn't had a huge impact to this point, that is a big loss.

Kansas City Chiefs

Good – It seems as if Knile Davis is legit and should give you scary backfield options when Charles returns.

Bad – Too many injuries already, and you aren't going to come anywhere close to last year’s turnover differential.

Oakland Raiders

Good – You are not the Jaguars

Bad – You are also not any of the other 30 teams


Next week the NFC.

Last Week: 12-4
Lock of the Week: 3-0
Season: 24-24

Home team in CAPS

REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants

Thursday night home teams.

Dolphins (-4) over Oakland

The Raiders are the “home” team in London. England should really quit on American football with the games we are sending over there.

BEARS (+1.5) over Packers

Green Bay just looked worthless in Detroit, so sure, let’s favor them in Chicago. Makes a lot of sense.

Bills (+3) over TEXANS

One of these defenses will score. That team will win.

COLTS (-7.5) over Titans

Remember after week one it looked like maybe the Titans would be decent?

RAVENS (-3) over Panthers
Lock of the Week

Watch this game. Steve Smith is going to do something amazing. Remember in his prime when he would go off any time he thought an opposing defensive back had slighted him prior to the game? Now he is playing a whole team that slighted him. I’m ready to believe that he will get 225 yards receiving and am equally ready to believe that he will start a big fight and get ejected.

Lions (-1.5) over JETS

The Jets are just good enough to make people think they might cover a spread. They will not.

STEELERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers

I’m picking the Steelers, but am legitimately nervous. The whole country watched Tampa get decimated last week and probably everyone is going to bet against them expecting another blow out. This of course means that they will somehow make this game close or maybe even win to ruin everyone’s Colts-Steelers teaser.

Jaguars (+13) over CHARGERS

I am stupid for picking the Jags, but I don’t think the Chargers are quite as good as they’ve looked and maybe Blake Bortles will inspire the Jags to not get blown out of the building.

Eagles (+5.5) over 49ERS

San Fran desperately needs this game, but it is possible that they just aren’t very good. They have yet to score in the fourth quarter and they lead the league in penalties. I predict Jim Harbaugh will be coaching a different team in 2015.

VIKINGS (+3) over Falcons

I was all set to pick Atlanta, until I remember that Minnesota is not playing in a dome this year. Much like Drew Brees, I don’t trust Matt Ryan outdoors.

Saints (-3) over COWBOYS

Even in covering their double-digit spread last week the Saints didn’t look good. They need to have an impressive offensive performance this week or I will be giving up on their hopes.

Patriots (-3.5) over CHIEFS

The annoying thing will be even if the Patriots lose this game, and look mediocre all year, they’ll still end up 10-6 or 11-5, win the division and get a home playoff game.

Week 3: Hopelessness Settling In

Two weeks into the season and both my picks and the NFL are looking about as bad as they possibly can. The NFL is doing much worse than my picks, but that would be the case even if I was 0-32 at this point.

Hopefully at some point soon teams and/or the league will think about their decisions before they make them. The current process seems to be make a poor decision, receive a negative public reaction, lose sponsors due to negative public reaction, then change decision. It is not surprise it is still all driven by money. If teams knew they could still keep all their sponsors and sell tickets and merchandise at the same rate, they’d never suspend anyone unless they were forced to do so.

Sports has become really depressing. I turned on Sports Center as I was eating breakfast and did not see a single sports highlight or even read any sports scores on the bottom line. The items were about – Peterson and child abuse, Rice and domestic violence, Hardy and domestic violence, and Tony Stewart killing a guy. Other recent sports news involves Oscar Pistorius getting charged with homicide (and being allowed to run again), drug suspensions, and racism in front offices. Since then another NFL player has gotten in trouble for domestic violence. Sports are a fun escape from the depressing news, right guys?

Last Week: 6-10
Lock of the Week: 2-0
Season: 12-20

Home team in CAPS

FALCONS (-6.5) over Buccaneers

Tampa lost to Derek Anderson and Austin Davis. Those were both close games, but I can’t imagine how they can stay close to Matt Ryan at home in the dome.

Chargers (+2.5) over BILLS

Buffalo has looked like one of, if not the best team in the league over the first two weeks. I expect some sort of return to normalcy.

Cowboys (-1.5) over RAMS

Through two games and the Dallas defense is looking downright competent. I am not pleased with this trend.

Redskins (+6.5) over EAGLES

Kirk Cousins in relief against a terrible team is one thing. Expecting Cousins to keep pace with this Eagles offense is an entirely different thing. I firmly believe that he is benefiting from backup QB syndrome and now that he is starting, it will be a different story. BUT, I also don’t think the Eagles are a special team and expect divisional games to be close all year in the NFC East.

GIANTS (+2.5) over Texans

I can point to exactly zero things that have happened this season that give me any reason to bet on the Giants or confidence in this pick, yet, still I’m going to take the home dog.

Vikings (+9.5) over SAINTS

Looking at things objectively, I want to take the Saints. But trends support taking the underdog and taking the away team.

BENGALS (-7) over Titans

If the Titans looked bad against the Dallas defense they really shouldn’t have any hope here.

BROWNS (+1.5) over Ravens

Take the home teams in the AFC North.

LIONS (-2) over Packers

This Green Bay defense looks painfully bad.

Colts (-7) over JAGUARS

It is going to be very hard for me to find a time to bet on the Jaguars regardless of the spread after how they have looked over the last six quarters.

Raiders (+14) over PATRIOTS

Really don’t like taking double digit favorites, even against the Raiders.

CARDINALS (+2.5) over 49ers

I bet the Cardinals would have under 7.5 wins this season, which should have been the clearest possible indication that they will go 11-5.

SEAHAWKS (-5) over Broncos

Seattle at home coming off a loss. Nothing more needs be said.

DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Chiefs

It doesn’t look like Andy Reid and Alex Smith will change the Chiefs’ inability to have back-to-back good seasons.

PANTHERS (-3) over Steelers

Greg Hardy is lucky he is not a skill position player, because his charges are certainly the worst of the current group of embattled NFL stars. The Panthers finally decided to ban him from team activities, but the fact that he played in Week 1 is reprehensible and the fact it is getting far less coverage than Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson is equally reprehensible. The man received a guilty verdict and STILL played. All NFL teams are garbage.

Oh, but, hey, football. The Panthers are considerably better than the Steelers.

Bears (+2.5) over JETS

Lock of the Week

The Jets currently have the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL. They also happen to have played against rushing defenses currently ranked 31st and 32nd. The Bears also have a bad rush defense, so maybe New York will continue to have good rushing numbers. This does not mean Chris Johnson and the Jets are among the best rushing teams in the league, I refuse to believe that.

Also, I don’t understand how the Jets are favored by 2.5 points here. The Bears lost in overtime to what looks to be the surprise team of the NFL in the Bills and then beat a supposed juggernaut in the 49ers.

Week 2: Already Falling Behind

Picking up right where I left off, making bad picks. Although I went 6-10 on the weekend, I feel as if I learned a few things about these football teams. This will give me the confidence I need to lose a good chunk of money.

What we did learn last week (here is where I should say the answer is nothing, we learn nothing from week one, don’t overreact) is that the underdogs dominated. This makes sense early in the season as you typically don’t see huge lines until the really good and bad teams have established themselves as such. Will this trend help me in week two? Signs point to no.

Last Week: 6-10
Lock of the Week: 1-0
Season: 6-10

Home team in CAPS

Steelers (+2.5) over RAVENS

There isn’t much left to say about the Ray Rice situation. Mishandled all around. The Ravens and the NFL are either clueless (if they didn’t see the video) or much worse (if they did see the video). And excuse me if I don’t give the NFL a ton of credit for launching an independent investigation overseen by two owners of NFL teams. Seem like at least a bit of a conflict of interest to anyone else?

As far as this game goes, the Ravens and Steelers always play each other close so I’ll take the points (and the team not mired in a controversy).

Lions (+3) over PANTHERS

The stay away game of the week. More information is needed on both of these teams. The Panthers defense is still among the best, but their weakest spot is in the secondary; which is where Detroit can attack a team. Otherwise Carolina is all around better. Again, I don’t like this game. Stay away.

Dolphins (-1) over BILLS

Both teams had impressive wins in week one, but I trust the Dolphins more despite being the road team. Buffalo beat a Bears team that may end up being turnover prone with a bottom third defense. Still an impressive road win, but I don’t trust they can put a complete game together two weeks in a row, at least not yet.

Jaguars (+6) over REDSKINS

Sorry, the Redskins don’t give anyone six points. Not after only scoring six points themselves last week.

TITANS (-3.5) over Cowboys

Wish this line moved a point either way.

GIANTS (+2.5) over Cardinals

Home underdog against a team travelling from Pacific Time to Eastern Time. I might be ignoring the evidence that Eli Manning is donezo, but taking the points. Speaking of Eli, is he going to end up as the worst quarterback in the Hall of Fame? On first glance, that honor currently belongs to Joe Namath (although a deeper look into advanced statistics shows that Namath was far better than his standard numbers give him credit) – but if Eli ends up in the Hall, and with 2 Super Bowl MVPs he likely will, he will take that honor. And hey, a Hall of Fame QB is still a Hall of Fame QB, even if he is the shittiest one.

Patriots (-3) over VIKINGS
Lock of the Week

No way will the Patriots lose two games in a row. My biggest concern about this line is that it seems too easy. I think the Vikings value is overinflated after beating a hopeless looking Rams team, if this game was last week I think the Pats would be favored by a touchdown. While the Vikings have a chance to be one of the most improved teams in the league, they don’t have a chance to beat New England. If somehow they do beat the Patriots, that might signal the end of Patriots dominance, so in a way betting on the Pats is win-win.

Saints (-6.5) over BROWNS

This line is dangerously high and I feel like I should take the points. Yet, here I am, picking the Saints.

Falcons (+5) over BENGALS

Far more impressed with Atlanta’s win than Cincinnati’s win. The Bengals are dangerous at home, but sticking with the points.

Rams (+6) over BUCCANEERS

The Rams were unquestionably the worst team in the league last week. Even considering that fact, I am not ready to give Tampa Bay six points yet until Josh McCown shows me some signs of his 2013 run. And let’s not forget before we anoint the Rams the worst team of the year – they should still have a solid defense that keeps things close against offensively challenged teams.

CHARGERS (+6) over Seahawks

Don’t look too much into week one. Trust the home underdogs. Don’t look too much into week one. Trust the home underdogs. I have to keep saying this because if I start looking into or thinking about this game I will immediately jump to Seattle. Sidenote: does Pete Carroll have the strongest jaw in the country? That guy chews gums with an unmatched tenacity. I'm sure his wife enjoys that jaw stamina.

Texans (-3) over RAIDERS

I’m always shocked when the Raiders cover a spread. Can’t happen two weeks in a row, right?

PACKERS (-8) over Jets

Green Bay got gashed last week and their offense failed to live up to expectations. Although the Jets still have a solid defense, they can’t even come close to matching Seattle’s secondary. Rodgers and the Packers will make up for lost time and explode all over the scoreboard’s face.

Chiefs (+13) over BRONCOS

The Chiefs just have to play better than they played last week, right? It is embarrassing to be coming off an 11-win, playoff season and be a double-digit underdog in the second week of the season. But, it makes total sense and Denver will probably cover. Still, need to bet the other way on principle.

Bears (+7) over 49ERS

Glossed over in the 49ers win is that their offense put up a lackluster performance against what is supposed to be a catastrophically bad Dallas defense. The Bears defense isn’t anything to write home about either, but San Francisco didn’t inspire enough confidence for me to bet on them, despite winning by double digit points on the road.

COLTS (-3) over Eagles

When in doubt, bet against the NFC East. Also, Andrew Luck > Nick Foles.

Week 1: A New Hope

All of the sudden it’s football season again. Sundays filled with outdoor liquor consumption will now change to Sundays avoiding sunlight and slowly giving up on the Redskins chances of ever being good again. Also, gambling. A whole lot of gambling. I have a job now that actually pays me enough money that I can somewhat afford to gamble, this will probably end poorly. Also, semi-related, I have a real job now and a lot less time to dick around looking up football stats and making uninspired Tim Tebow jokes, so these blog posts will likely get shorter and I’d say more inaccurate, but I don’t think that’s possible.

In fact, by virtue of spending a lot less time than ever before reading about this upcoming football season, I am more excited and confident about the gambling to come than I have been in years.

As always, the start of a season is really where you should have your best chance to make money because Vegas doesn’t know enough about the teams yet. Yes, they know way more than you or I do, but the knowledge gap will only widen as the season progresses, so now is the time to strike.

Things I’m excited about for the 2014 NFL Season:

-Starting quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Brian Hoyer, Derek Carr, Shaun Hill, Carson Palmer, Josh McCown, Matt Cassel, Geno Smith. That’s nearly 1/3 of the league trotting out QBs I do not have any faith in.

-The potential for an all-time terrible defense in Dallas.

Things I’m not excited about for the 2014 NFL Season:

-Starting quarterback Robert Griffin III. Could be a long year for the Redskins. At least they get to play that Dallas defense twice.

One more thing I’m excited about:

-I’m wrong a lot, so maybe I’m wrong about RG3.

Last Season: 119-129-9 (that's bad)

Home team in CAPS

Packers (+6) over SEAHAWKS

I fully expect Seattle to contend for the Super Bowl again, but this line seems quite high for a Packers team that was really good last season when healthy. The Seahawks deserve to be favored, just not by six points. This is also the biggest stay away game of the week. In fact, betting on Thursday Night Football never seems to go well.

FALCONS (+3) over Saints

The Saints are one of the most popular picks to challenge Seattle for the NFC crown, but I don’t see them improving as much as everyone else seems to think they will. Meanwhile, there is no way Atlanta can be as bad as they were last year. This line opened at Falcons favored by one, it has swung too far the other way.

RAMS (-4) over Vikings

Is Shaun Hill really that much of a downgrade from Sam Bradford? Probably not. (This is not intended to be a compliment of Shaun Hill).

STEELERS (-6.5) over Browns

Does anyone have any confidence about any team in the AFC North this season? The Ravens and Steelers have both screwed themselves with the cap. The Bengals constantly seem like they should be at the end of their run, and the Browns are simply terrible.

Jaguars (+10.5) over EAGLES

I’m taking any double-digit spreads in Week 1.

JETS (-5.5) over Raiders

The Raiders roster seemingly gets worse every single year. I cannot think of one thing I’d be excited about if I were a Raiders fan. Maybe the fact that the Golden State Warriors season is less than two months away?

RAVENS (-1.5) over Bengals

When I don’t particularly like either team in week 1, as long as the line isn’t crazy high, I like the home team.

BEARS (-7) over Bills

Chicago will have a bad defense this year, but fortunately for them Buffalo does not really have an offense, so it should work out.

TEXANS (-3) over Redskins
Lock of the Week

RG3 is going to have a lot of troubles with two monsters trying to destroy him all day. Houston’s offense will have struggles this season, but their defense will keep them in most games given their schedule.

CHIEFS (-4) over Titans

I think Ken Whisenhunt is a really good coach when he has a strong quarterback. I do not think Jake Locker is a strong quarterback. If the Titans had picked up

Patriots (-5) over DOLPHINS

Part of me wanted to pick the Dolphins, but then I remember that the Patriots are still much better than the rest of the AFC East and don’t lose on opening weekend.

Panthers (+2) over BUCCANEERS

Everyone is high on the Bucs and everyone is low on the Panthers. Last year the Panthers won 8 more games than Tampa. Eight! I do think the teams will approach each other, but Carolina still has a strong defense and I don’t have faith in Josh McCown.

49ers (-5) over COWBOYS

Just real excited to see how bad this Dallas defense can play.

Colts (+7.5) over BRONCOS

Indy was able to straight up beat Denver last year and I think the Broncos might regress slightly on offense. Question, will people ever hate Andrew Luck like people hate Manning and Brady? Or will he enter that strange Drew Brees category where everyone seems to cheer for him no matter how good he gets? I tend to think it might be the latter. Something about his mega deep voice and persona could keep people from turning on him.

Giants (+5.5) over LIONS

Very few things make less sense to me than the Lions hiring Jim Caldwell this offseason. Yes, he did well as interim offensive coordinator in the Ravens playoff run, but then last season the Ravens offense finished 29th in total yards and 25th in total points. I’m not sure how that performance warrants a head coaching job offer.

Chargers (+3) over CARDINALS

They always open the season with a double header on Monday night. I cannot remember a time that I’ve been excited for the second game. Sure, that is in large part because it is late and features west coast teams (and possibly always the Chargers – feels like it is always the Chargers).

Super Bowl XLVIII

This is the best Super Bowl matchup on paper that I can remember. That doesn’t mean it will be the best Super Bowl ever, but there is no reason to believe we will have a step back in competiveness or quality of play. The past six Super Bowls have all been good games, in fact there have only been two bad Super Bowls in the last 10 years.

Growing up in the 90s, I became used to the Super Bowl as a yearly source of disappointment, but now we are in the golden age of the Super Bowl and this could be the best of them all. The two teams that have looked the best all season are playing each other for the championship, this just does not happen in the NFL and I’m excited.

It is more than the top-ranked offense against the top-ranked defense; it is a historically great offense against a historically great defense. I can’t remember the last time a Super Bowl matched strength vs. strength like this; it has probably never happened. Not only is it Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense, it is Denver’s unstoppable passing attack against Seattle’s amazing secondary.

Because I grew up in an era of terrible Super Bowls, I learned to entertain myself in other ways during the Super Bowl, primarily by making dumb bets. And while this game would be entertaining in its own right, I can’t stop making dumb bets now, it’s a part of me. So let’s look deep into the abyss of prop bets, from bets no one should make to things that seem to make sense.

Last Week: 0-2
Playoff: 3-6-1 (but listen to me, I'm an "expert")


- Coin Toss: There are four bets based off the coin toss. THE COIN TOSS. I have a friend who bets the coin toss every year and every year I tell him he’s stupid. It’s a 50/50 bet that pays less than 2 to 1 that you can’t possibly have any insight on. Oddly, Bovada offers “Will the team that chooses in the coin toss be correct?” at -115 (win $0.87 to the dollar), but they offer who will win the coin toss and heads vs. tails at -105 (win $0.95 to the dollar).

- Team to score first wins the game: Yes -165, No +135

I believe in a close game this should be close to even odds. I have no evidence to back up this theory and lost on this bet last year, but will be making it again.

- The first score of the game will be? Touchdown -145, Field Goal or Safety +115

In 14 of Seattle’s 18 games the first score has been a field goal or safety. That is a trend worth betting on.

Denver’s first score of the game will be? Field Goal 8/5, TD Pass 5/4, Rushing TD 4/1, Safety 20/1, Defensive or Special Teams TD 8/1, Does not score 75/1

I like betting on Seattle’s defense to start off strong.

Odds to Win MVP: Sometimes there is someone worth rolling the dice on here, but often not. Manning is 11/10, which is ridiculous. If you wanted to pick a long shot, I might suggest Earl Thomas, who is 40/1. He might be defensive player of the year, he could easily make the game changing play and win this.

Total Rushing Yards – Robert Turbin: Over 10.5 -130, Under 10.5 even

Turbin does average over 10 yards per game, but has yet to hit 10 in either playoff game. I feel like he won’t get many touches.

Total Receiving Yards – Demaryius Thomas: Over 75.5 -115, Under 75.5 -115

The Richard Sherman Effect in effect.

Total Receiving Yards – Wes Welker: Over 57.5 -115, Under 57.5 -115

Manning has to throw to someone and Seattle’s pass defense is most susceptible to underneath stuff over the middle. Also known as Wes Welker.

Who will have more passing attempts in the game? Peyton Manning (-10.5) -130, Russell Wilson (+10.5) even

Even giving Wilson an extra 10.5 attempts, this is easy. Manning will throw 40 times, Wilson will hover around 25.

Who will score a TD first in the game? Marshawn Lynch -200, Knowshon Moreno +160

Moreno has 13 touchdowns on the year, Lynch has 14. Given that fact these odds seem fairly unreasonable. Moreno is definitely worth a bet.

Player to score the first Denver TD of the game? Eric Decker 11/2

I feel like there are five players on Denver who are all equally likely to score. The other four are 5/1, Decker has a slightly better pay out.

Really dumb bets: If you like betting the coin toss then take a look at the other “special” bets that have to do with the length of the National Anthem, if Knowshon Moreno will cry, Archie and Eli Manning appearances, what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach, how many times the announcers say things like “12th man” or “Beast Mode,” etc. Here are the ones I like best and/or think are the stupidest.

Will the announcers say “marijuana” during the game? Yes +325, No -550.

Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB? Yes +135, No -175

Seems like they bring up every back story possible during the Super Bowl, I’ll take my chances.

Which song will Bruno Mars perform first? Grenada 7/1 (please God no), Just The Way You Are 5/1, Locked Out of Heaven ½, Marry You 15/1, The Lazy Song 15/1 (also no), Treasure 5/1, Gorilla 15/1

No way it is not Locked Out of Heaven, right? But he will sing Treasure for sure, so maybe that’s worth a bet. Let’s just hope he pretends he didn’t make a first album, because all those singles were terrible.

What will Bruno Mars be wearing on his head at the start of his halftime performance? Fedora even, Fur Hat +700, Tuque +500, No Hat +150

Fedora is old Bruno Mars. No Hat is new Bruno Mars.

Now, back to football--

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) over Denver Broncos

For at least the last 8 weeks, if not for the entire season, the talk has been about how much better the NFC is than the AFC and how the NFC team will be favored and will win the Super Bowl. Yet here we are and the AFC team is favored, seems odd.

I realize that Denver’s offense is far better than anyone else in the league, but Seattle has done well against explosive passing attacks in the past, constraining the second best passing offense, Drew Brees and the Saints, twice already this season. In addition to being da bes, the Seahawks secondary is also known for being very physical. The best way to disrupt Manning’s passing attack has been to playing extra physical against his receivers and to knock everything off its timing – this is what Seattle does better than anyone. I in no way expect them to shut the Broncos down, but they will make things significantly harder for them than anyone else has all year.

The question then becomes, can Seattle put up enough points to stay with Manning? The defense will keep it from being a shootout, but the fact remains that you are not beating the Broncos with under 20 points. Seattle has not surpassed 200 yards passing in a game since December 2; they won’t have to reach that milestone to win, but they’ll need to be close. Another thing the Seahawks need to do – not abandon the run game. No one has stuck with the running game against the Broncos in the playoffs, but Seattle will not turn away from Beast Mode. If Lynch can break one run and keep Denver on their heels, advantage Seahawks.

Sidenote - How does Marshawn Lynch feel about Skittles changing Lime to Green Apple? I feel it's a mistake, but he's the expert.

I know it is a tired narrative, but it is worth mentioning that this game will be outdoors and in the cold. Conditions that typically do not favor Peyton Manning and conditions that traditionally favor teams with a strong defense and good running game, which means Seattle. I’m not on the “Manning can’t play in the cold” bandwagon, but I am on the “It is easier to run than pass in the cold and the Seahawks are the better rushing team” bandwagon. 

Also I love that Richard Sherman said that Peyton Manning throws ducks sometimes. It's not even mean, it's just true and was part of a compliment about how smart Manning is, but I feel like it is the meanest thing another player has ever said about Manning. I love Richard Sherman.

Final score prediction: Seahawks 24, Broncos 20