Week 8: This Will Never Work

I ain't got time for intros, but fair warning, I like too many games this week.

Last Week: 5-10
Lock of the Week: 6-1
Season: 50-55-1

Home team in CAPS

Chargers (+8.5) over BRONCOS
I think if this game took place one week ago the line would have been 5.5. I’m betting on overreaction to a Chargers loss and to Peyton having his best game of the season. The Chargers lost to Andy Reid after the bye, everyone does that. Peyton had a huge game because he, and the whole team, got up for Peyton to get the record. San Diego is too good to be that big of an underdog.

Lions (-3.5) over Falcons

Technically the Falcons are the home team, but this game is London. Unless they moved the Georgia Dome to London, you can bet on the fact that Matt Ryan won’t play well. If I weren’t a bit scared that absolutely anything could happen in a London game, this would be my lock of the week.

Vikings (+3) over BUCCANEERS

Sure, neither team is good, but aren’t the Vikings at least a little bit better? Tampa has looked terrible when I’ve had the misfortune of watching them play, I won’t bet on them as a favorite (except maybe against the Jags or Raiders, but even then I’m not sure).

Bears (+6) over PATRIOTS

Everything is telling me to bet on the Patriots, so I’m picking the Bears.

CHIEFS (-7) over Rams

St. Louis seems due for a letdown after last week and the Chiefs have dominated both their home games thus far this season.

PANTHERS (+5) over Seahawks

It appears we can’t trust Seattle on the road right now. The funny thing is despite losing back to back games and being 1.5 games out of the playoffs, I still think they might be the best team in the league. And yes, I’m still picking against them.

JETS (-3) over Bills

No one in the AFC East is allowed to get two wins above .500. It’s a rule aging Tom Brady made with the devil to ensure that he gets to the playoffs from now until the apocalypse, which will occur in 2028 when Pitbull is elected president.

Dolphins (-6) over JAGUARS

Miami seems to be better on the road than at home, plus there is no way Jacksonville can put up two consecutive solid performances.

Texans (-2.5) over TITANS

Tennessee is starting Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The thought of a rookie 6th round pick going against J.J. Watt frightens me. I think it is possible Watt outscores the Titans. Also, Clowney might come back for this game, that can’t help Mettenberger either.

Ravens (even) over BENGALS without A.J. GREEN

BENGALS with A.J. GREEN (even) over Ravens

The Bengals will find their swagger again this season, but it probably won’t happen until Green is playing.

Eagles (+2.5) over CARDINALS

This game should be really interesting and has a lot of importance to the playoff race, yet for some reason it comes across as very boring to me. I think the Cardinals will slip in the second half of the season and miss the playoffs; this seems like as good a time as any for that to start.

Colts (-3) over STEELERS

Lock of the Week

The weird line of the week. Doesn’t it seem like the Colts should be favored by more? Have the Steelers done anything of note? They won last week, but most of their points came in a three minute span when Houston just handed them the game. Big Ben can’t keep pace with Luck, no way. Weird lines usually mean bet on the side that makes no sense, but I won’t be doing that, not in this one.

Raiders (+7) over BROWNS

The Raiders are the master of the cover and lose.

Packers (+1.5) over SAINTS

Sure, the Saints are better at home than on the road, but in their last home game they needed OT to beat the Bucs. I don’t trust the Saints, and as I said last week I won’t pick them again this season unless they go on a big winning streak (at which point they’d make the playoffs because the NFC South is terrible and I’d probably forget about how bad they’ve been, bet big on them in the playoffs and lose money. Gambling is fun!)

Redskins (+9.5) over COWBOYS

It’s almost always a good idea to take the underdog when these two play. I hope the Redskins aren’t stupid and don’t play RG3 this game. Their season is over, don’t rush him back. I’d sit him at least a week after he is 100%. If he gets injured again that might be the end of it. Does 7% of me secretly hope he plays and leads the Skins to nine straight wins to end the season or something like that a la 2012, yes. But that is stupid, we don’t listen to that 7%.