Week 9: Back Where I Belong

Now we are back in Gamblor’s comfort zone. For a while there I was flirting with a winning record, but after three straight losing weeks I’m solidly below average again – gotta keep those expectations low. In addition to my poor performance in the blog, I’ve lost money on nine of my last ten bets with the only win being a 2nd half line. This means one of three things, either I’m due or I’m terrible OR, most likely, the NFL is impossible to predict.

When unsure this week, I’m going against whatever the consensus pick is, which probably means lots of underdogs for this guy.

Last Week: 6-8
Lock of the week: 6-2
Season: 56-63-1

Home team in CAPS

PANTHERS (+3) over Saints
Lock of the Week

The Saints are still terrible on the road, no matter how many points they put up against the Packers at home last week. The sad thing is that this game is somehow for first place in the NFC South and that one of these two teams will host a playoff game.

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Chargers

Miami is one of those teams that might be better on the road at home, but I’ll still take them here. San Diego hasn’t looked nearly as good in their last four games as they did in their first four.

Jaguars (+11) over BENGALS

Buccaneers (+6.5) over BROWNS

Yeah, I just picked two of the worst teams in the league on the road. No, I don’t feel particularly good about it. But neither Cincinnati nor Cleveland has played strong enough recently for me to believe in them either.

VIKINGS (even) over Redskins

I’m shocked that the Vikings were ever favored (line came to even after RG3 announcement). I thought people would overplay the importance of their win in Dallas and they’d be giving three points. I also thought and think they will totally blow this game. And with RG3 it is almost a guarantee they lose. This way heading into the bye week people in D.C. can start saying how Colt McCoy should be the quarterback and that he runs the offense better than Griffin. All of these things will happen and I will be very annoyed.

TEXANS (+2) over Eagles

This line seems too small. I’m trusting Vegas and betting against the trend.

Jets (+9.5) over CHIEFS

Is Vick still really fast? I don’t even know anymore. He could rush for 85 yards and 2 TDs or rush for 6 yards and throw three picks and neither situation would surprise me in the slightest.

Cardinals (+4) over COWBOYS

I believe the Cardinals are the best team in the NFC at the moment. With Tony Romo not 100% I have to imagine their defense will be able to replicate some of the success that the Redskins had on Monday.

Rams (+10) over 49ERS

What has San Francisco done to be a double-digit favorite?

Broncos (-3) over PATRIOTS

Maybe it’s because I don’t follow the NFL anywhere near as close as I have in the past or maybe it’s because this week also had a great World Series and the start of the NBA season, but the Brady vs. Manning hype seems severely turned down this week. This is not a complaint.

Raiders (+15) over SEAHAWKS

Oakland is 3-1 when they are an over six point underdog. Meanwhile Seattle is 1-3 as a six-plus point favorite.

Ravens (even) over STEELERS

Apparently every few games the Steelers look like one of the best teams in the league, but most of the time they are the least talented team in their division. Luckily, since the Steelers were awesome last week the line is not where it should be and I get to bet the Ravens.

Colts (-3) over GIANTS

The Colts defense was due to get torched, but I don’t see any way in which the Giants could get anywhere close to repeating what the Steelers did last week. I also don’t see any way in which they can keep pace with Luck and the Colts.