Week 3: We Know Nothing

Picking that Thursday game was a mistake. Stupid believing the Redskins had a chance.

The third week of the season is the right amount of time to fool yourself into believing just about any narrative possible. It is just enough evidence to make you think trends exist where they don’t really. Prime time for losing money, so let’s saddle up.

Last Week: 8-7
Season: 15-15-1
Locks of the Week: 1-1
This Week: 0-1

Home team in CAPS

RAMS (+1) over Steelers
The Steelers get Bell back and go up against a Rams team that got gashed by the Redskins running game. Bell will not have a great game and Steelers fans across the country will freak out a little bit. Should be a nice Sunday.

Chargers (+2.5) over VIKINGS
Given the option, what percent of people do you think would rather live in Minneapolis over San Diego? Does it reach 10%? I’m sure Minneapolis in the summer is fantastic, but they have three months of the year where it doesn’t get above freezing. No thanks.

Buccaneers (+6.5) over TEXANS
Not sure the Texans deserve to be favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone. Actually, yes, I am sure, the Texans should not be favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone (except the Bears probably).

JETS (-2) over Eagles
What record is winning the NFC East this year? I’ve got my money on 8-8.

PANTHERS (-3) over Saints
I think we have reached the point where we can stop believing the Saints are still a good team and powerful offense.

Jaguars (+13.5) over PATRIOTS
This spread is too big. I’m anti-double digit spreads.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Bengals
It’s early, but this is a must-win game for Baltimore.

Raiders (+3.5) over BROWNS
How quickly will fans start cheering to put in Manziel?

Colts (-3) over TITANS
Another must-win game.

Falcons (-1) over COWBOYS
After Romo went down the Cowboys went and added Matt Cassel, presumably because they knew that Branden Weeden couldn’t carry the load for eight weeks. This begs the question, why are teams entering into seasons with a backup QB they don’t trust to get the job done? If they didn’t think Weeden can fill in, why is he on the team? Especially when you have Romo, a guy who is gonna get hurt from time to time. NFL teams make no sense sometimes.

CARDINALS (-6.5) over 49ers
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Arizona might be the best team in football. I’m not sure how that is possible, but it is possible.

SEAHAWKS (-14.5) over Bears
Ok, in this instance I am pro-double-digit spreads. The Seahawks playing their first home game, 0-2, with Chancellor back in the lineup against Jimmy Clausen. The spread could be 20 and I’d still probably take them even if you told me they’d punt every first down.


Sad Bear

Bills (+3) over DOLPHINS
LIONS (+3) over Broncos
Take the points!

Chiefs (+6.5) over PACKERS
Don’t really have a reason, just feels right.

Week 3 B-B-B-Bonus Pick

I said I wasn’t gonna pick any Thursday games, but the Redskins are playing tonight which means if nothing else, at least I knew there was a game ahead of time and thought about it. So, I might as well make a pick.

Last Week: 8-7
Season: 15-15-1
Locks of the Week: 1-1

Redskins (+3) over GIANTS

The Giants have covered the last 4 games against the Redskins, including a 31-point drubbing 364 days ago on a Thursday night. This season the Giants have managed to lose two games they were winning by double digits in the 4th quarter. I’m not sure if that means they are inept or that they are good and a string of wins is coming soon. All my instincts say this will be a big win for the Giants, all of them. But the line movement tells me to bet the Redskins. Last week I went with my instincts, this week I go with Vegas.

Week 2: Already Ready to Quit

It took me all of one week to not really want to spend the time needed to write this column. In fact, a mix of forgetting of it and not having time made me not even think about doing it until 10 minutes before kickoff last night. For this reason, and because I hate the entire concept anyways, I will not be picking any Thursday night games this season (with the exception of Thanksgiving). Get out of here Thursday Night Football, no one likes you. I don’t care what the really high ratings say, I think we’d all be happier if you didn’t exist.

I’m short on time and it’s getting late, so let’s just get to the picks.

Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 7-8-1
Lock of the Week: 1-0

Home Team in CAPS

PANTHERS (-3) over Texans

It did not take me long to give up on the idea that the Texans might be good this year. I don’t think the switch to Ryan Mallet is going to save them.

Buccaneers (+10) over SAINTS

I’m not sure Tampa can be as bad as they looked last week, but also, they might be.

STEELERS (-6) over 49ers
Lions (+2.5) over Vikings

My assumption is that both San Francisco and Minnesota are bad.
 
BILLS (+1) over Patriots

Really I just wanted to pick more home teams and underdogs. When I think about it I really want to pick the Pats, but when I think about it I tend to make incorrect picks too.

Cardinals (-2) over BEARS

I still can’t really buy into the fact that Carson Palmer is good, but I can buy into the fact that the Bears are bad.

BROWNS (+1.5) over Titans

I almost made the Titans my lock of the week and now I have picked the Browns. That displays the massive amount of confidence I have in these picks. My thought process was that there is no way the Titans are anywhere close to as good as they looked last week and there is no way the Browns are as bad as they looked. Everything comes back to the middle.

BENGALS (-3) over Chargers

Sure

Rams (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Lock of the Week

It is good to know that the Redskins are still so very Redskins. Despite everything I said last week and how much I thought they would suck, the Skins found a way to make me say to myself “they might win this game.” And then proceeded to immediately ruin it with terrible special teams coverage and an exquisite ability to fuck up when it matters most.

Falcons (-2.5) over GIANTS

My distrust in the Redskins extends to their entire division. Want to talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? The Giants set a high bar in week one (one that may have already been topped by the Chiefs on Thursday).

Ravens (-6.5) over RAIDERS

I made the mistake of betting on the Raiders last week. That’s like betting against the Harlem Globetrotters.

JAGUARS (+6) over Dolphins

Sure, I could say the same thing I just said about the Raiders about the Jags, but I’ll save that regret and self-hatred for next week.

EAGLES (-5) over Cowboys

It’ll be kinda funny when the NFC East has a collective 2-6 record with both wins coming within the division. It will be a lot funnier if their collective record is 12-52 with all 12 wins coming within the division.

Seahawks (+3.5) over PACKERS

This version of the Seahawks have covered every time they have ever played against Aaron Rodgers.

COLTS (-7) over Jets

The Jets scored all their points for the season last week.

Everyone Keeps Asking If I'm Back

I wasn’t expecting to be here. After years of proving I have no idea what I’m talking about and with almost no time to devote to it, I was going to stop writing these NFL picks. The 12 article views per week wasn’t enough motivation; especially now that I don’t just have massive amounts of time with nothing to do but put my terrible gambling thoughts to paper.

In fact, I wasn’t even sure I was going to bet much at all this NFL season. This is the 3rd year in a row I’ve said this, but I am completely unprepared for the season or aware of what is going on - I don’t think I knew who the Browns starting quarterback was until yesterday (but to be fair it really doesn’t matter). But, 30 minutes before kickoff last night I found myself making bets and after minimal prodding, I decided to free the gambling monster who enslaved your mother.

After 6+ years, I think you have a good idea of what to expect here. Misguided NFL picks that are right less than 50% of the time (my last winning season was 2012), contradictory statistics, self-deprecation, and a snowballing depression that comes with following the Washington Redskins. On the plus side of my sanity, I’m beginning this season with zero faith or belief that the Redskins will be anything other than a joke. I’m expecting them to be so bad that there is nothing I can do but laugh.

Last night started the season with a push. I’ll gladly take 255 more of those.

Home team in CAPS

BEARS (+7) over Packers

Why not start things off by picking a bad team with their top weapon questionable to play. Look, any time you have a chance to bet on Jay Cutler over Aaron Rodgers you have to do it. I mean, look at the confidence this guy exudes. This is his year!

TEXANS (-1) over Chiefs

Am I picking the Texans solely because of Hard Knocks? No. But 90% because of Hard Knocks.

JETS (-3) over Browns

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Josh McCown. I hope they let two 6-year olds announce this game. Seems fitting.

BILLS (+2.5) over Colts

Everyone loves the Colts in this game. The Bills are actually solid and the Colts have a lot of weaknesses. Most importantly, go against the heavy public pick.

Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Lock of the Week

I can’t imagine any scenario in which I pick the Redskins to cover a game this year. I’m sure I will at some point, but not for a while. I have never had less faith that a team can do anything right. I mean, players were asking the media if they knew who their starting QB was. What a joke this once proud franchise has become. The Dolphins defensive line will destroy Washington’s O-line. Kirk Cousins might not be the QB for long due to displaced head (but if RGIII was playing he’d almost certainly leave crippled).

JAGUARS (+3) over Panthers

The Panthers won their division AND a playoff game last year. The world is a crazy place.

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

Keep riding home dogs all day. The Rams beat Seattle in St. Louis last year.

Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS

Every year I doubt the Cardinals early and they make me pay for it. But I don’t “learn lessons” and I’m not a “good gambler” so I’ll repeat my past mistakes.

CHARGERS (-3) over Lions

I expect both these teams to be a few games worse than they were last year. I’ll just take the home team here in what is essentially a coin flip.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans

Two rookie QBs. I guess that’s exciting. Especially if you enjoy growing pains. No idea if liking Growing Pains has any effect on if you will enjoy watching this game.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

The fall is coming in Cincinnati.

Ravens (+4.5) over DENVER

Does anyone know if Peyton Manning can still throw a football? This is an important question to ask because it looked like he couldn’t late last year.

Giants (+6) over COWBOYS

Remember last year when Dallas was supposed to have the worst defense in NFL history and then it ended up being solid. Now people think their defense is going to be good, so I’m hoping things swing back the other way.

FALCONS (+3) over Eagles
Vikings (-2.5) over 49ERS

No idea why I picked either of these teams.

Oh Shit. Football

I was gonna quit doing this, but got easily talked into it. Tonight's pick - PATRIOTS -7 over Steelers Rest coming tomorrow