Super Bowl XLVIII

This is the best Super Bowl matchup on paper that I can remember. That doesn’t mean it will be the best Super Bowl ever, but there is no reason to believe we will have a step back in competiveness or quality of play. The past six Super Bowls have all been good games, in fact there have only been two bad Super Bowls in the last 10 years.

Growing up in the 90s, I became used to the Super Bowl as a yearly source of disappointment, but now we are in the golden age of the Super Bowl and this could be the best of them all. The two teams that have looked the best all season are playing each other for the championship, this just does not happen in the NFL and I’m excited.

It is more than the top-ranked offense against the top-ranked defense; it is a historically great offense against a historically great defense. I can’t remember the last time a Super Bowl matched strength vs. strength like this; it has probably never happened. Not only is it Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense, it is Denver’s unstoppable passing attack against Seattle’s amazing secondary.

Because I grew up in an era of terrible Super Bowls, I learned to entertain myself in other ways during the Super Bowl, primarily by making dumb bets. And while this game would be entertaining in its own right, I can’t stop making dumb bets now, it’s a part of me. So let’s look deep into the abyss of prop bets, from bets no one should make to things that seem to make sense.

Last Week: 0-2
Playoff: 3-6-1 (but listen to me, I'm an "expert")


- Coin Toss: There are four bets based off the coin toss. THE COIN TOSS. I have a friend who bets the coin toss every year and every year I tell him he’s stupid. It’s a 50/50 bet that pays less than 2 to 1 that you can’t possibly have any insight on. Oddly, Bovada offers “Will the team that chooses in the coin toss be correct?” at -115 (win $0.87 to the dollar), but they offer who will win the coin toss and heads vs. tails at -105 (win $0.95 to the dollar).

- Team to score first wins the game: Yes -165, No +135

I believe in a close game this should be close to even odds. I have no evidence to back up this theory and lost on this bet last year, but will be making it again.

- The first score of the game will be? Touchdown -145, Field Goal or Safety +115

In 14 of Seattle’s 18 games the first score has been a field goal or safety. That is a trend worth betting on.

Denver’s first score of the game will be? Field Goal 8/5, TD Pass 5/4, Rushing TD 4/1, Safety 20/1, Defensive or Special Teams TD 8/1, Does not score 75/1

I like betting on Seattle’s defense to start off strong.

Odds to Win MVP: Sometimes there is someone worth rolling the dice on here, but often not. Manning is 11/10, which is ridiculous. If you wanted to pick a long shot, I might suggest Earl Thomas, who is 40/1. He might be defensive player of the year, he could easily make the game changing play and win this.

Total Rushing Yards – Robert Turbin: Over 10.5 -130, Under 10.5 even

Turbin does average over 10 yards per game, but has yet to hit 10 in either playoff game. I feel like he won’t get many touches.

Total Receiving Yards – Demaryius Thomas: Over 75.5 -115, Under 75.5 -115

The Richard Sherman Effect in effect.

Total Receiving Yards – Wes Welker: Over 57.5 -115, Under 57.5 -115

Manning has to throw to someone and Seattle’s pass defense is most susceptible to underneath stuff over the middle. Also known as Wes Welker.

Who will have more passing attempts in the game? Peyton Manning (-10.5) -130, Russell Wilson (+10.5) even

Even giving Wilson an extra 10.5 attempts, this is easy. Manning will throw 40 times, Wilson will hover around 25.

Who will score a TD first in the game? Marshawn Lynch -200, Knowshon Moreno +160

Moreno has 13 touchdowns on the year, Lynch has 14. Given that fact these odds seem fairly unreasonable. Moreno is definitely worth a bet.

Player to score the first Denver TD of the game? Eric Decker 11/2

I feel like there are five players on Denver who are all equally likely to score. The other four are 5/1, Decker has a slightly better pay out.

Really dumb bets: If you like betting the coin toss then take a look at the other “special” bets that have to do with the length of the National Anthem, if Knowshon Moreno will cry, Archie and Eli Manning appearances, what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach, how many times the announcers say things like “12th man” or “Beast Mode,” etc. Here are the ones I like best and/or think are the stupidest.

Will the announcers say “marijuana” during the game? Yes +325, No -550.

Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB? Yes +135, No -175

Seems like they bring up every back story possible during the Super Bowl, I’ll take my chances.

Which song will Bruno Mars perform first? Grenada 7/1 (please God no), Just The Way You Are 5/1, Locked Out of Heaven ½, Marry You 15/1, The Lazy Song 15/1 (also no), Treasure 5/1, Gorilla 15/1

No way it is not Locked Out of Heaven, right? But he will sing Treasure for sure, so maybe that’s worth a bet. Let’s just hope he pretends he didn’t make a first album, because all those singles were terrible.

What will Bruno Mars be wearing on his head at the start of his halftime performance? Fedora even, Fur Hat +700, Tuque +500, No Hat +150

Fedora is old Bruno Mars. No Hat is new Bruno Mars.

Now, back to football--

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) over Denver Broncos

For at least the last 8 weeks, if not for the entire season, the talk has been about how much better the NFC is than the AFC and how the NFC team will be favored and will win the Super Bowl. Yet here we are and the AFC team is favored, seems odd.

I realize that Denver’s offense is far better than anyone else in the league, but Seattle has done well against explosive passing attacks in the past, constraining the second best passing offense, Drew Brees and the Saints, twice already this season. In addition to being da bes, the Seahawks secondary is also known for being very physical. The best way to disrupt Manning’s passing attack has been to playing extra physical against his receivers and to knock everything off its timing – this is what Seattle does better than anyone. I in no way expect them to shut the Broncos down, but they will make things significantly harder for them than anyone else has all year.

The question then becomes, can Seattle put up enough points to stay with Manning? The defense will keep it from being a shootout, but the fact remains that you are not beating the Broncos with under 20 points. Seattle has not surpassed 200 yards passing in a game since December 2; they won’t have to reach that milestone to win, but they’ll need to be close. Another thing the Seahawks need to do – not abandon the run game. No one has stuck with the running game against the Broncos in the playoffs, but Seattle will not turn away from Beast Mode. If Lynch can break one run and keep Denver on their heels, advantage Seahawks.

Sidenote - How does Marshawn Lynch feel about Skittles changing Lime to Green Apple? I feel it's a mistake, but he's the expert.

I know it is a tired narrative, but it is worth mentioning that this game will be outdoors and in the cold. Conditions that typically do not favor Peyton Manning and conditions that traditionally favor teams with a strong defense and good running game, which means Seattle. I’m not on the “Manning can’t play in the cold” bandwagon, but I am on the “It is easier to run than pass in the cold and the Seahawks are the better rushing team” bandwagon. 

Also I love that Richard Sherman said that Peyton Manning throws ducks sometimes. It's not even mean, it's just true and was part of a compliment about how smart Manning is, but I feel like it is the meanest thing another player has ever said about Manning. I love Richard Sherman.

Final score prediction: Seahawks 24, Broncos 20

Conference Championships

It’s past 4 p.m. on a Saturday, so I’m not going to waste my time or your time with an intro.

Last Week: 2-1-1
Playoffs?: 3-4-1
Playoff Lock of the Week: 1-1

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5)

It has gotten to the point that making jokes about how much analysts and TV commentators like to talk about Tom Brady and Peyton Manning is just as old and overdone as all the praise itself. So, I won’t get into that. They are both good quarterbacks and they both must have great tasting dicks, because announcers can’t get enough.

Brady and the Patriots have the upper hand on Manning’s teams historically, including a win earlier this season. Both teams will be missing a key impact player from the last meeting, with Gronkowski out for the Pats and Von Miller out for the Broncos. Both of those guys had a huge impact during their last meeting.

Since that game the Patriots have gotten significantly better at running the ball, while the Broncos running attack has cooled a bit, but the ground attacks have a similar chance of succeeding on Sunday. Ultimately, I don’t know how either team is going to stop the other, particularly with all of the defensive injuries both sides are facing, which likely means the final score will somehow end up 14-10 or something.

On paper the Broncos are the better team, but it’s been two years, so it might be time for the Pats to make another Super Bowl and ensure that everyone continues to hate them forever.

Final score prediction: Broncos 30, Patriots 27

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

Lock of the Week? (It's real dumb to have a lock of the week with only two games, but I've got to give the public what they want - my lock of the week curse).

The fact that most exemplifies what this game will be about is that the over/under is set at 39.5. That is crazy low, and rightfully so as these are two of, if not the two best defenses in the league.

The Seahawks have dominated the 49ers in Seattle over the past two seasons, beating them by a combined score of 71-16. But Russell Wilson has regressed in the second half of the season while Colin Kaepernick has found his game and the 49ers defense is playing its best football of the season.

It is hard to imagine that anyone can go into Seattle and win, and I don’t think there is any chance I would have thought about picking the 49ers had the Cardinals not gone into Seattle and won in week 16, but they did. Now these teams seem so evenly matched with the 49ers having the advantage of momentum and the Seahawks having the advantage of home field. It likely will come down to turnovers or some crazy play (a defensive or special teams score or someone going for it on 4th and goal.)

In the end, I think the 49ers are going to keep taking one step forward each season.

Final score prediction: 49ers 18, Seahawks 17

Playoffs - Divisional Round

So the first round of the playoffs didn’t go exactly as I expected. I only got one game correct based upon the spreads I used. Maybe I “don’t know what I’m talking about” and maybe I “should stay away from gambling.” Perhaps I should “take this as a sign,” but I’ve never been very good at determining signs, so instead I’m going to up my gambling to make up for last week's mistakes. Nothing could possiblie go wrong.

Last Week: 1-3
Playoffs: 1-3
Playoff Lock of the Week: 0-1

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

The Saints surprised everyone by beating the Eagles thanks in large part due to their running game. While they performed well, it is foolish to expect a similar performance against the Seahawks, their defense is far too strong. The Eagles overplayed the pass and allowed Mark Ingram his second best game of the season last week. Seattle’s pass defense is so good that they won’t have to overplay anything and can keep the run game in check while containing the pass as well.

When these two played earlier this season, Ingram had 8 carries for 22 yards and the Saints were held to 44 rushing yards total. Part of that is due to the fact they fell behind 17-0 by the end of the first quarter, but no matter the reason, the fact remains that it is harder to rush on the Seahawks than the Eagles, despite rushing defense being the weaker part of the Seahawks unit.

The biggest question surrounding this game is what will we see from Seattle’s offense? Since that game against the Saints, the Seahawks have struggled to move the ball, particularly through the air. If that trend continues it will be hard for them to score enough to cover this spread without any scores from the defense.

And, just because, let’s all remember the last playoff game between these two and the defining moment of Beast Mode.

Final score prediction: Seahawks 25, Saints 16



Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)

Two question control this game. One, which Colts team do we expect to show up? The first-half turnover-loving can’t stop Alex Smith Colts or the second half, can’t be stopped Colts? Two, are the Patriots too injured? Bill Belichick has made a career from getting the most out of unexpected pieces, but this Patriots team looks like it just got the shit kicked out of it by Bane.

Despite all the problems the Patriots have had, their best skill defensively has been shutting down the other team’s go-to option, which in this case means T.Y. Hilton. The Pats will gameplan to take Hilton away, which will really put the emphasis on Andrew Luck. They won’t stop Hilton completely and if Luck can pick his battles, take care of the ball and use the rest of his receiving corps to take what is given to him, the Colts have a great chance.

Brady will score points, because as the Colts showed last week, they are pretty easy to score on, but I think this game is Indy’s to lose.

Final score prediction: Colts 30, Patriots 27



San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Carolina Panthers

Football knowledge has me leaning toward the 49ers here, but gambling knowledge has me leaning towards the Panthers. Public money is coming in strongly on the 49ers, but after its initial movement the line has not reflected that public betting. That means the smart gamblers, and Vegas, are siding with the Panthers. Generally it is not a good idea to go against the sharps, but I have proven time and time again, I don’t learn.

Carolina has won 11 of its last 12, but this is the first playoff experience for Cam Newton and Ron Rivera. Plus, Steve Smith is in danger of missing this game due to a knee sprain. No one ever wants to publicly count out or disparage Steve Smith as doing so runs the risk of him going Freddy Kruger and haunting your dreams, but if he doesn’t play that’s a big blow to the Panthers already pedestrian offense. That loss would place more pressure on their defense to stop a 49ers offense that is rolling after a midseason slump.

Still, I’m extra nervous about betting against Riverboat Ron, the Carolina defense, Vegas sharps and Steve Smith all at once. Stay away from this game.

Final score prediction: 49ers 20, Panthers 17



San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5)

Lock of the Week
Is there a way that Peyton Manning could continue to create doubts about his postseason performance, but still advance to force a storyline that will be beaten into the ground even more than the Manning postseason struggles narrative? Yes, because if the Broncos win we will be treated to either Manning vs. the Colts for the right to go to the Super Bowl or Manning vs. Brady for the Super Bowl.

Those stories are just too juicy to not end up happening somehow. Plus, how many games can the Chargers really win? (I know the answer is all of them, because mediocre teams love to win the Super Bowl. And the Chargers best fit the description of the most recent surprise Super Bowl teams, right down to having beaten the Eagles in Philly’s home opener).

Still, I don't see Denver blowing anyone out in the playoffs.

Final score prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 20

Wild Card Bitches

Playoff time! This is where people believe they can truly make their money gambling. For the most part they are wrong, Vegas is still just as good at creating lines as they are during the regular season. There is no easy money in sports betting.

But for a guy who got more picks wrong than right over the course of the entire season, I’m sure the playoff will turn things around.

Some people like to follow very specific rules for playoff bets, but I don’t really think that helps more than anything else. Last year all of the favorites covered in the Wild Card round. Two years ago all the home teams covered (but not all the favorites because Tim Tebow). And three years ago three of four underdogs won straight up. Point being, don’t rely on trends and look at each game as its own event.

Last Week: 10-6
Lock of the Week: 5-11-1
Season: 119-129-9

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

This was the hardest game for me to pick. Both teams are capable of putting up stinkers and both could conceivably beat anyone on any given day. The played just two weeks ago and the Colts easily won in Kansas City, leading one to think they are the better team. In fact, the Colts have won their last three games by impressive margins, while the Chiefs have struggled, losing five of their last seven. All of those signs point to the Colts being an easy pick, but in sports gambling nothing is easy.

Kansas City turned the ball over four times in their last meeting, a stat that likely won’t be repeated as they had the second best turnover differential in the league. The Chiefs could also be returning some key players, notably linebacker Justin Houston who was absent from their last meeting. In the end though, I think the Colts are the more dangerous team.

Final score prediction: Colts 23, Chiefs 17

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

My gambling goal here is to not overthink this game. If I start breaking down the teams too much I will want to pick the Saints with their high powered passing offense going against the team ranked dead last in passing yards allowed. But I’m not getting caught picking the Saints on the road again. Last time I tried that in the playoffs they got spanked by the 8-8 Seahawks. Obviously this is a different year and that doesn’t have anything to do with this game directly, but several of the facts about the Saints remain the same.

New Orleans went 3-5 on the road this season with some putrid performances along the way. The Eagles, although only 4-4 at home, have won four straight in Philly after a long losing streak. In addition, the Philly pass defense is at least somewhat improved from where they were in the beginning of the season. Not going to think about this being the first playoff game for both the coach and QB of the Eagles, not going to think about how bad the NFC East has been all season, not going to think about the lack of quality wins for the Eagles this year. Oh crap, I better stop now, doubt is creeping in from all around.

Final score prediction: Eagles 31, Saints 27



San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Lock of the week

I’ve been saying it for the last few weeks now, I will keep riding the Bengals at home. They are 8-0 against the spread while in Cincinnati. They have the defense needed to slow down Rivers and a strong passing attack that can go after the Chargers biggest weakness.

I realize the Bengals have never won a playoff game under Marvin Lewis, but this is likely his best Bengals team and his first home playoff game since the 2005 season when Carson Palmer had his knee taken out on his first pass. Assuming no freak accidents this time around:

Final score prediction: Bengals 34, Chargers 20



San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers

While I think any of the games this weekend could be good, I think this has the best chance to be a classic. The 49ers have arguably been the best team in the league down the stretch, winning their last six games. Green Bay meanwhile, managed to weather the storm without Aaron Rodgers and now have him back for the playoffs. With Rodgers they are 6-2, with their only losses coming on the road (at San Francisco and at Cincinnati – both very respectable losses).

It’s also important to note that this game will be in Green Bay where the expected high on game day is five degrees and wind chills will near 30 below. Colin Kaepernick has been near unstoppable in his two matchups with the Packers, but both have been in San Francisco and he hasn’t ever played in any weather anywhere close to that cold. It’s silly to think that won’t be a factor, but since getting their full receiving corps back, the 49ers have just been too good.

Final score prediction: 49ers 23, Packers 20