Wild Card Bitches

Playoff time! This is where people believe they can truly make their money gambling. For the most part they are wrong, Vegas is still just as good at creating lines as they are during the regular season. There is no easy money in sports betting.

But for a guy who got more picks wrong than right over the course of the entire season, I’m sure the playoff will turn things around.

Some people like to follow very specific rules for playoff bets, but I don’t really think that helps more than anything else. Last year all of the favorites covered in the Wild Card round. Two years ago all the home teams covered (but not all the favorites because Tim Tebow). And three years ago three of four underdogs won straight up. Point being, don’t rely on trends and look at each game as its own event.

Last Week: 10-6
Lock of the Week: 5-11-1
Season: 119-129-9

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

This was the hardest game for me to pick. Both teams are capable of putting up stinkers and both could conceivably beat anyone on any given day. The played just two weeks ago and the Colts easily won in Kansas City, leading one to think they are the better team. In fact, the Colts have won their last three games by impressive margins, while the Chiefs have struggled, losing five of their last seven. All of those signs point to the Colts being an easy pick, but in sports gambling nothing is easy.

Kansas City turned the ball over four times in their last meeting, a stat that likely won’t be repeated as they had the second best turnover differential in the league. The Chiefs could also be returning some key players, notably linebacker Justin Houston who was absent from their last meeting. In the end though, I think the Colts are the more dangerous team.

Final score prediction: Colts 23, Chiefs 17

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

My gambling goal here is to not overthink this game. If I start breaking down the teams too much I will want to pick the Saints with their high powered passing offense going against the team ranked dead last in passing yards allowed. But I’m not getting caught picking the Saints on the road again. Last time I tried that in the playoffs they got spanked by the 8-8 Seahawks. Obviously this is a different year and that doesn’t have anything to do with this game directly, but several of the facts about the Saints remain the same.

New Orleans went 3-5 on the road this season with some putrid performances along the way. The Eagles, although only 4-4 at home, have won four straight in Philly after a long losing streak. In addition, the Philly pass defense is at least somewhat improved from where they were in the beginning of the season. Not going to think about this being the first playoff game for both the coach and QB of the Eagles, not going to think about how bad the NFC East has been all season, not going to think about the lack of quality wins for the Eagles this year. Oh crap, I better stop now, doubt is creeping in from all around.

Final score prediction: Eagles 31, Saints 27



San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Lock of the week

I’ve been saying it for the last few weeks now, I will keep riding the Bengals at home. They are 8-0 against the spread while in Cincinnati. They have the defense needed to slow down Rivers and a strong passing attack that can go after the Chargers biggest weakness.

I realize the Bengals have never won a playoff game under Marvin Lewis, but this is likely his best Bengals team and his first home playoff game since the 2005 season when Carson Palmer had his knee taken out on his first pass. Assuming no freak accidents this time around:

Final score prediction: Bengals 34, Chargers 20



San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers

While I think any of the games this weekend could be good, I think this has the best chance to be a classic. The 49ers have arguably been the best team in the league down the stretch, winning their last six games. Green Bay meanwhile, managed to weather the storm without Aaron Rodgers and now have him back for the playoffs. With Rodgers they are 6-2, with their only losses coming on the road (at San Francisco and at Cincinnati – both very respectable losses).

It’s also important to note that this game will be in Green Bay where the expected high on game day is five degrees and wind chills will near 30 below. Colin Kaepernick has been near unstoppable in his two matchups with the Packers, but both have been in San Francisco and he hasn’t ever played in any weather anywhere close to that cold. It’s silly to think that won’t be a factor, but since getting their full receiving corps back, the 49ers have just been too good.

Final score prediction: 49ers 23, Packers 20