Playoffs - Divisional Round

So the first round of the playoffs didn’t go exactly as I expected. I only got one game correct based upon the spreads I used. Maybe I “don’t know what I’m talking about” and maybe I “should stay away from gambling.” Perhaps I should “take this as a sign,” but I’ve never been very good at determining signs, so instead I’m going to up my gambling to make up for last week's mistakes. Nothing could possiblie go wrong.

Last Week: 1-3
Playoffs: 1-3
Playoff Lock of the Week: 0-1

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

The Saints surprised everyone by beating the Eagles thanks in large part due to their running game. While they performed well, it is foolish to expect a similar performance against the Seahawks, their defense is far too strong. The Eagles overplayed the pass and allowed Mark Ingram his second best game of the season last week. Seattle’s pass defense is so good that they won’t have to overplay anything and can keep the run game in check while containing the pass as well.

When these two played earlier this season, Ingram had 8 carries for 22 yards and the Saints were held to 44 rushing yards total. Part of that is due to the fact they fell behind 17-0 by the end of the first quarter, but no matter the reason, the fact remains that it is harder to rush on the Seahawks than the Eagles, despite rushing defense being the weaker part of the Seahawks unit.

The biggest question surrounding this game is what will we see from Seattle’s offense? Since that game against the Saints, the Seahawks have struggled to move the ball, particularly through the air. If that trend continues it will be hard for them to score enough to cover this spread without any scores from the defense.

And, just because, let’s all remember the last playoff game between these two and the defining moment of Beast Mode.

Final score prediction: Seahawks 25, Saints 16



Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)

Two question control this game. One, which Colts team do we expect to show up? The first-half turnover-loving can’t stop Alex Smith Colts or the second half, can’t be stopped Colts? Two, are the Patriots too injured? Bill Belichick has made a career from getting the most out of unexpected pieces, but this Patriots team looks like it just got the shit kicked out of it by Bane.

Despite all the problems the Patriots have had, their best skill defensively has been shutting down the other team’s go-to option, which in this case means T.Y. Hilton. The Pats will gameplan to take Hilton away, which will really put the emphasis on Andrew Luck. They won’t stop Hilton completely and if Luck can pick his battles, take care of the ball and use the rest of his receiving corps to take what is given to him, the Colts have a great chance.

Brady will score points, because as the Colts showed last week, they are pretty easy to score on, but I think this game is Indy’s to lose.

Final score prediction: Colts 30, Patriots 27



San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Carolina Panthers

Football knowledge has me leaning toward the 49ers here, but gambling knowledge has me leaning towards the Panthers. Public money is coming in strongly on the 49ers, but after its initial movement the line has not reflected that public betting. That means the smart gamblers, and Vegas, are siding with the Panthers. Generally it is not a good idea to go against the sharps, but I have proven time and time again, I don’t learn.

Carolina has won 11 of its last 12, but this is the first playoff experience for Cam Newton and Ron Rivera. Plus, Steve Smith is in danger of missing this game due to a knee sprain. No one ever wants to publicly count out or disparage Steve Smith as doing so runs the risk of him going Freddy Kruger and haunting your dreams, but if he doesn’t play that’s a big blow to the Panthers already pedestrian offense. That loss would place more pressure on their defense to stop a 49ers offense that is rolling after a midseason slump.

Still, I’m extra nervous about betting against Riverboat Ron, the Carolina defense, Vegas sharps and Steve Smith all at once. Stay away from this game.

Final score prediction: 49ers 20, Panthers 17



San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5)

Lock of the Week
Is there a way that Peyton Manning could continue to create doubts about his postseason performance, but still advance to force a storyline that will be beaten into the ground even more than the Manning postseason struggles narrative? Yes, because if the Broncos win we will be treated to either Manning vs. the Colts for the right to go to the Super Bowl or Manning vs. Brady for the Super Bowl.

Those stories are just too juicy to not end up happening somehow. Plus, how many games can the Chargers really win? (I know the answer is all of them, because mediocre teams love to win the Super Bowl. And the Chargers best fit the description of the most recent surprise Super Bowl teams, right down to having beaten the Eagles in Philly’s home opener).

Still, I don't see Denver blowing anyone out in the playoffs.

Final score prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 20