Week 4: Good News/Bad News - AFC

Through three weeks of the season, we are starting to get a picture of how the league looks, but there is still a lot to figure out. I’ll list one reason to have a positive outlook for each team and another reason to be worried. This week the AFC teams, next week the NFC.

New England Patriots

Good – You are 2-1 and might have a top-10 defense after years of that portion of your team letting you down. (I’m worried this team looks like the first year of the Brady Patriots.)

Bad – Tom Brady has looked average and the receivers not named Edelman are flat out bad. Additionally, that 2-1 record comes against teams with a collective 2-7 record. You almost lost to the Raiders at home.

Buffalo Bills

Good – How about that 2-0 start?!?! The rushing attack and defense give the Bills a chance to control the game against a lot of teams.

Bad – Reality might be settling in after the hot start. Manuel can’t be relied on when behind or in a close game.

Miami Dolphins

Good – You beat the Patriots! Fuck those guys.

Bad – You also played two other games.

New York Jets

Good – The rest of the division doesn't look great and you seem like you have the ability to stay in games.

Bad – Unfortunately you don’t have the ability to win games.

Cincinnati Bengals

Good – You've looked like the best team in football. You haven’t lost a step despite losing two coordinators. The offense has been solid, even without A.J. Green and the defense has been the best in the league.

Bad – You still haven’t won a playoff game.

Baltimore Ravens

Good – The defense looks solid and it turns out Steve Smith is still pretty good. Additionally, you manhandled your hated rival.

Bad – Everything off the field.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Good – It took a while to get going, but then you put up big points on the vaunted Panthers defense. Also, Antonio Brown is some sort of face-kicking ninja.

Bad – The Ravens beat the shit out of you.

Cleveland Browns

Good – Hoyer looks good and you've had a chance to win every game right down to the very end.

Bad – You are still only 1-2 and idiots are still going to be calling for Johnny Football.

Houston Texans

Good – Hey, you’re in first place and have equaled last year’s win total.

Bad – You also started last year 2-0. Ryan Fitzpatrick reminded you that he’s still the same guy.

Indianapolis Colts

Good – You are third in the league in offense and scoring offense, even Trent Richardson is contributing.

Bad – Despite great offense, you've lost twice because your defense can’t stop anything.

Tennessee Titans

Good – How about that first game!

Bad – The rumors a Jake Locker resurgence were greatly exaggerated. He is warm garbage.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Good – Blake Bortles could be good?

Bad – There is no team to put behind Bortles. You are terrible.

Denver Broncos

Good – You are the only team in the league that could drive down the field on the Seahawks in Seattle with under a minute and no timeouts. Also, most of the AFC sucks, so it should be pretty easy to make it to at least the AFC Championship without a challenge.

Bad – There are still a fair amount of problems on defense, Montee Ball is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry, the general lack of challenge the AFC presents might make you soft for the Super Bowl.

San Diego Chargers

Good – You beat the Seahawks, the defense has been surprisingly solid, Rivers looks good, and if you had held on in week one against the Cardinals, people might say you've been the best team in the league thus far.

Bad – Danny Woodhead is done for the season, and although he hadn't had a huge impact to this point, that is a big loss.

Kansas City Chiefs

Good – It seems as if Knile Davis is legit and should give you scary backfield options when Charles returns.

Bad – Too many injuries already, and you aren't going to come anywhere close to last year’s turnover differential.

Oakland Raiders

Good – You are not the Jaguars

Bad – You are also not any of the other 30 teams


Next week the NFC.

Last Week: 12-4
Lock of the Week: 3-0
Season: 24-24

Home team in CAPS

REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants

Thursday night home teams.

Dolphins (-4) over Oakland

The Raiders are the “home” team in London. England should really quit on American football with the games we are sending over there.

BEARS (+1.5) over Packers

Green Bay just looked worthless in Detroit, so sure, let’s favor them in Chicago. Makes a lot of sense.

Bills (+3) over TEXANS

One of these defenses will score. That team will win.

COLTS (-7.5) over Titans

Remember after week one it looked like maybe the Titans would be decent?

RAVENS (-3) over Panthers
Lock of the Week

Watch this game. Steve Smith is going to do something amazing. Remember in his prime when he would go off any time he thought an opposing defensive back had slighted him prior to the game? Now he is playing a whole team that slighted him. I’m ready to believe that he will get 225 yards receiving and am equally ready to believe that he will start a big fight and get ejected.

Lions (-1.5) over JETS

The Jets are just good enough to make people think they might cover a spread. They will not.

STEELERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers

I’m picking the Steelers, but am legitimately nervous. The whole country watched Tampa get decimated last week and probably everyone is going to bet against them expecting another blow out. This of course means that they will somehow make this game close or maybe even win to ruin everyone’s Colts-Steelers teaser.

Jaguars (+13) over CHARGERS

I am stupid for picking the Jags, but I don’t think the Chargers are quite as good as they’ve looked and maybe Blake Bortles will inspire the Jags to not get blown out of the building.

Eagles (+5.5) over 49ERS

San Fran desperately needs this game, but it is possible that they just aren’t very good. They have yet to score in the fourth quarter and they lead the league in penalties. I predict Jim Harbaugh will be coaching a different team in 2015.

VIKINGS (+3) over Falcons

I was all set to pick Atlanta, until I remember that Minnesota is not playing in a dome this year. Much like Drew Brees, I don’t trust Matt Ryan outdoors.

Saints (-3) over COWBOYS

Even in covering their double-digit spread last week the Saints didn’t look good. They need to have an impressive offensive performance this week or I will be giving up on their hopes.

Patriots (-3.5) over CHIEFS

The annoying thing will be even if the Patriots lose this game, and look mediocre all year, they’ll still end up 10-6 or 11-5, win the division and get a home playoff game.

Week 3: Hopelessness Settling In

Two weeks into the season and both my picks and the NFL are looking about as bad as they possibly can. The NFL is doing much worse than my picks, but that would be the case even if I was 0-32 at this point.

Hopefully at some point soon teams and/or the league will think about their decisions before they make them. The current process seems to be make a poor decision, receive a negative public reaction, lose sponsors due to negative public reaction, then change decision. It is not surprise it is still all driven by money. If teams knew they could still keep all their sponsors and sell tickets and merchandise at the same rate, they’d never suspend anyone unless they were forced to do so.

Sports has become really depressing. I turned on Sports Center as I was eating breakfast and did not see a single sports highlight or even read any sports scores on the bottom line. The items were about – Peterson and child abuse, Rice and domestic violence, Hardy and domestic violence, and Tony Stewart killing a guy. Other recent sports news involves Oscar Pistorius getting charged with homicide (and being allowed to run again), drug suspensions, and racism in front offices. Since then another NFL player has gotten in trouble for domestic violence. Sports are a fun escape from the depressing news, right guys?

Last Week: 6-10
Lock of the Week: 2-0
Season: 12-20

Home team in CAPS

FALCONS (-6.5) over Buccaneers

Tampa lost to Derek Anderson and Austin Davis. Those were both close games, but I can’t imagine how they can stay close to Matt Ryan at home in the dome.

Chargers (+2.5) over BILLS

Buffalo has looked like one of, if not the best team in the league over the first two weeks. I expect some sort of return to normalcy.

Cowboys (-1.5) over RAMS

Through two games and the Dallas defense is looking downright competent. I am not pleased with this trend.

Redskins (+6.5) over EAGLES

Kirk Cousins in relief against a terrible team is one thing. Expecting Cousins to keep pace with this Eagles offense is an entirely different thing. I firmly believe that he is benefiting from backup QB syndrome and now that he is starting, it will be a different story. BUT, I also don’t think the Eagles are a special team and expect divisional games to be close all year in the NFC East.

GIANTS (+2.5) over Texans

I can point to exactly zero things that have happened this season that give me any reason to bet on the Giants or confidence in this pick, yet, still I’m going to take the home dog.

Vikings (+9.5) over SAINTS

Looking at things objectively, I want to take the Saints. But trends support taking the underdog and taking the away team.

BENGALS (-7) over Titans

If the Titans looked bad against the Dallas defense they really shouldn’t have any hope here.

BROWNS (+1.5) over Ravens

Take the home teams in the AFC North.

LIONS (-2) over Packers

This Green Bay defense looks painfully bad.

Colts (-7) over JAGUARS

It is going to be very hard for me to find a time to bet on the Jaguars regardless of the spread after how they have looked over the last six quarters.

Raiders (+14) over PATRIOTS

Really don’t like taking double digit favorites, even against the Raiders.

CARDINALS (+2.5) over 49ers

I bet the Cardinals would have under 7.5 wins this season, which should have been the clearest possible indication that they will go 11-5.

SEAHAWKS (-5) over Broncos

Seattle at home coming off a loss. Nothing more needs be said.

DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Chiefs

It doesn’t look like Andy Reid and Alex Smith will change the Chiefs’ inability to have back-to-back good seasons.

PANTHERS (-3) over Steelers

Greg Hardy is lucky he is not a skill position player, because his charges are certainly the worst of the current group of embattled NFL stars. The Panthers finally decided to ban him from team activities, but the fact that he played in Week 1 is reprehensible and the fact it is getting far less coverage than Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson is equally reprehensible. The man received a guilty verdict and STILL played. All NFL teams are garbage.

Oh, but, hey, football. The Panthers are considerably better than the Steelers.

Bears (+2.5) over JETS

Lock of the Week

The Jets currently have the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL. They also happen to have played against rushing defenses currently ranked 31st and 32nd. The Bears also have a bad rush defense, so maybe New York will continue to have good rushing numbers. This does not mean Chris Johnson and the Jets are among the best rushing teams in the league, I refuse to believe that.

Also, I don’t understand how the Jets are favored by 2.5 points here. The Bears lost in overtime to what looks to be the surprise team of the NFL in the Bills and then beat a supposed juggernaut in the 49ers.

Week 2: Already Falling Behind

Picking up right where I left off, making bad picks. Although I went 6-10 on the weekend, I feel as if I learned a few things about these football teams. This will give me the confidence I need to lose a good chunk of money.

What we did learn last week (here is where I should say the answer is nothing, we learn nothing from week one, don’t overreact) is that the underdogs dominated. This makes sense early in the season as you typically don’t see huge lines until the really good and bad teams have established themselves as such. Will this trend help me in week two? Signs point to no.

Last Week: 6-10
Lock of the Week: 1-0
Season: 6-10

Home team in CAPS

Steelers (+2.5) over RAVENS

There isn’t much left to say about the Ray Rice situation. Mishandled all around. The Ravens and the NFL are either clueless (if they didn’t see the video) or much worse (if they did see the video). And excuse me if I don’t give the NFL a ton of credit for launching an independent investigation overseen by two owners of NFL teams. Seem like at least a bit of a conflict of interest to anyone else?

As far as this game goes, the Ravens and Steelers always play each other close so I’ll take the points (and the team not mired in a controversy).

Lions (+3) over PANTHERS

The stay away game of the week. More information is needed on both of these teams. The Panthers defense is still among the best, but their weakest spot is in the secondary; which is where Detroit can attack a team. Otherwise Carolina is all around better. Again, I don’t like this game. Stay away.

Dolphins (-1) over BILLS

Both teams had impressive wins in week one, but I trust the Dolphins more despite being the road team. Buffalo beat a Bears team that may end up being turnover prone with a bottom third defense. Still an impressive road win, but I don’t trust they can put a complete game together two weeks in a row, at least not yet.

Jaguars (+6) over REDSKINS

Sorry, the Redskins don’t give anyone six points. Not after only scoring six points themselves last week.

TITANS (-3.5) over Cowboys

Wish this line moved a point either way.

GIANTS (+2.5) over Cardinals

Home underdog against a team travelling from Pacific Time to Eastern Time. I might be ignoring the evidence that Eli Manning is donezo, but taking the points. Speaking of Eli, is he going to end up as the worst quarterback in the Hall of Fame? On first glance, that honor currently belongs to Joe Namath (although a deeper look into advanced statistics shows that Namath was far better than his standard numbers give him credit) – but if Eli ends up in the Hall, and with 2 Super Bowl MVPs he likely will, he will take that honor. And hey, a Hall of Fame QB is still a Hall of Fame QB, even if he is the shittiest one.

Patriots (-3) over VIKINGS
Lock of the Week

No way will the Patriots lose two games in a row. My biggest concern about this line is that it seems too easy. I think the Vikings value is overinflated after beating a hopeless looking Rams team, if this game was last week I think the Pats would be favored by a touchdown. While the Vikings have a chance to be one of the most improved teams in the league, they don’t have a chance to beat New England. If somehow they do beat the Patriots, that might signal the end of Patriots dominance, so in a way betting on the Pats is win-win.

Saints (-6.5) over BROWNS

This line is dangerously high and I feel like I should take the points. Yet, here I am, picking the Saints.

Falcons (+5) over BENGALS

Far more impressed with Atlanta’s win than Cincinnati’s win. The Bengals are dangerous at home, but sticking with the points.

Rams (+6) over BUCCANEERS

The Rams were unquestionably the worst team in the league last week. Even considering that fact, I am not ready to give Tampa Bay six points yet until Josh McCown shows me some signs of his 2013 run. And let’s not forget before we anoint the Rams the worst team of the year – they should still have a solid defense that keeps things close against offensively challenged teams.

CHARGERS (+6) over Seahawks

Don’t look too much into week one. Trust the home underdogs. Don’t look too much into week one. Trust the home underdogs. I have to keep saying this because if I start looking into or thinking about this game I will immediately jump to Seattle. Sidenote: does Pete Carroll have the strongest jaw in the country? That guy chews gums with an unmatched tenacity. I'm sure his wife enjoys that jaw stamina.

Texans (-3) over RAIDERS

I’m always shocked when the Raiders cover a spread. Can’t happen two weeks in a row, right?

PACKERS (-8) over Jets

Green Bay got gashed last week and their offense failed to live up to expectations. Although the Jets still have a solid defense, they can’t even come close to matching Seattle’s secondary. Rodgers and the Packers will make up for lost time and explode all over the scoreboard’s face.

Chiefs (+13) over BRONCOS

The Chiefs just have to play better than they played last week, right? It is embarrassing to be coming off an 11-win, playoff season and be a double-digit underdog in the second week of the season. But, it makes total sense and Denver will probably cover. Still, need to bet the other way on principle.

Bears (+7) over 49ERS

Glossed over in the 49ers win is that their offense put up a lackluster performance against what is supposed to be a catastrophically bad Dallas defense. The Bears defense isn’t anything to write home about either, but San Francisco didn’t inspire enough confidence for me to bet on them, despite winning by double digit points on the road.

COLTS (-3) over Eagles

When in doubt, bet against the NFC East. Also, Andrew Luck > Nick Foles.

Week 1: A New Hope

All of the sudden it’s football season again. Sundays filled with outdoor liquor consumption will now change to Sundays avoiding sunlight and slowly giving up on the Redskins chances of ever being good again. Also, gambling. A whole lot of gambling. I have a job now that actually pays me enough money that I can somewhat afford to gamble, this will probably end poorly. Also, semi-related, I have a real job now and a lot less time to dick around looking up football stats and making uninspired Tim Tebow jokes, so these blog posts will likely get shorter and I’d say more inaccurate, but I don’t think that’s possible.

In fact, by virtue of spending a lot less time than ever before reading about this upcoming football season, I am more excited and confident about the gambling to come than I have been in years.

As always, the start of a season is really where you should have your best chance to make money because Vegas doesn’t know enough about the teams yet. Yes, they know way more than you or I do, but the knowledge gap will only widen as the season progresses, so now is the time to strike.

Things I’m excited about for the 2014 NFL Season:

-Starting quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Brian Hoyer, Derek Carr, Shaun Hill, Carson Palmer, Josh McCown, Matt Cassel, Geno Smith. That’s nearly 1/3 of the league trotting out QBs I do not have any faith in.

-The potential for an all-time terrible defense in Dallas.

Things I’m not excited about for the 2014 NFL Season:

-Starting quarterback Robert Griffin III. Could be a long year for the Redskins. At least they get to play that Dallas defense twice.

One more thing I’m excited about:

-I’m wrong a lot, so maybe I’m wrong about RG3.

Last Season: 119-129-9 (that's bad)

Home team in CAPS

Packers (+6) over SEAHAWKS

I fully expect Seattle to contend for the Super Bowl again, but this line seems quite high for a Packers team that was really good last season when healthy. The Seahawks deserve to be favored, just not by six points. This is also the biggest stay away game of the week. In fact, betting on Thursday Night Football never seems to go well.

FALCONS (+3) over Saints

The Saints are one of the most popular picks to challenge Seattle for the NFC crown, but I don’t see them improving as much as everyone else seems to think they will. Meanwhile, there is no way Atlanta can be as bad as they were last year. This line opened at Falcons favored by one, it has swung too far the other way.

RAMS (-4) over Vikings

Is Shaun Hill really that much of a downgrade from Sam Bradford? Probably not. (This is not intended to be a compliment of Shaun Hill).

STEELERS (-6.5) over Browns

Does anyone have any confidence about any team in the AFC North this season? The Ravens and Steelers have both screwed themselves with the cap. The Bengals constantly seem like they should be at the end of their run, and the Browns are simply terrible.

Jaguars (+10.5) over EAGLES

I’m taking any double-digit spreads in Week 1.

JETS (-5.5) over Raiders

The Raiders roster seemingly gets worse every single year. I cannot think of one thing I’d be excited about if I were a Raiders fan. Maybe the fact that the Golden State Warriors season is less than two months away?

RAVENS (-1.5) over Bengals

When I don’t particularly like either team in week 1, as long as the line isn’t crazy high, I like the home team.

BEARS (-7) over Bills

Chicago will have a bad defense this year, but fortunately for them Buffalo does not really have an offense, so it should work out.

TEXANS (-3) over Redskins
Lock of the Week

RG3 is going to have a lot of troubles with two monsters trying to destroy him all day. Houston’s offense will have struggles this season, but their defense will keep them in most games given their schedule.

CHIEFS (-4) over Titans

I think Ken Whisenhunt is a really good coach when he has a strong quarterback. I do not think Jake Locker is a strong quarterback. If the Titans had picked up

Patriots (-5) over DOLPHINS

Part of me wanted to pick the Dolphins, but then I remember that the Patriots are still much better than the rest of the AFC East and don’t lose on opening weekend.

Panthers (+2) over BUCCANEERS

Everyone is high on the Bucs and everyone is low on the Panthers. Last year the Panthers won 8 more games than Tampa. Eight! I do think the teams will approach each other, but Carolina still has a strong defense and I don’t have faith in Josh McCown.

49ers (-5) over COWBOYS

Just real excited to see how bad this Dallas defense can play.

Colts (+7.5) over BRONCOS

Indy was able to straight up beat Denver last year and I think the Broncos might regress slightly on offense. Question, will people ever hate Andrew Luck like people hate Manning and Brady? Or will he enter that strange Drew Brees category where everyone seems to cheer for him no matter how good he gets? I tend to think it might be the latter. Something about his mega deep voice and persona could keep people from turning on him.

Giants (+5.5) over LIONS

Very few things make less sense to me than the Lions hiring Jim Caldwell this offseason. Yes, he did well as interim offensive coordinator in the Ravens playoff run, but then last season the Ravens offense finished 29th in total yards and 25th in total points. I’m not sure how that performance warrants a head coaching job offer.

Chargers (+3) over CARDINALS

They always open the season with a double header on Monday night. I cannot remember a time that I’ve been excited for the second game. Sure, that is in large part because it is late and features west coast teams (and possibly always the Chargers – feels like it is always the Chargers).