Week 4: Good News/Bad News - AFC

Through three weeks of the season, we are starting to get a picture of how the league looks, but there is still a lot to figure out. I’ll list one reason to have a positive outlook for each team and another reason to be worried. This week the AFC teams, next week the NFC.

New England Patriots

Good – You are 2-1 and might have a top-10 defense after years of that portion of your team letting you down. (I’m worried this team looks like the first year of the Brady Patriots.)

Bad – Tom Brady has looked average and the receivers not named Edelman are flat out bad. Additionally, that 2-1 record comes against teams with a collective 2-7 record. You almost lost to the Raiders at home.

Buffalo Bills

Good – How about that 2-0 start?!?! The rushing attack and defense give the Bills a chance to control the game against a lot of teams.

Bad – Reality might be settling in after the hot start. Manuel can’t be relied on when behind or in a close game.

Miami Dolphins

Good – You beat the Patriots! Fuck those guys.

Bad – You also played two other games.

New York Jets

Good – The rest of the division doesn't look great and you seem like you have the ability to stay in games.

Bad – Unfortunately you don’t have the ability to win games.

Cincinnati Bengals

Good – You've looked like the best team in football. You haven’t lost a step despite losing two coordinators. The offense has been solid, even without A.J. Green and the defense has been the best in the league.

Bad – You still haven’t won a playoff game.

Baltimore Ravens

Good – The defense looks solid and it turns out Steve Smith is still pretty good. Additionally, you manhandled your hated rival.

Bad – Everything off the field.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Good – It took a while to get going, but then you put up big points on the vaunted Panthers defense. Also, Antonio Brown is some sort of face-kicking ninja.

Bad – The Ravens beat the shit out of you.

Cleveland Browns

Good – Hoyer looks good and you've had a chance to win every game right down to the very end.

Bad – You are still only 1-2 and idiots are still going to be calling for Johnny Football.

Houston Texans

Good – Hey, you’re in first place and have equaled last year’s win total.

Bad – You also started last year 2-0. Ryan Fitzpatrick reminded you that he’s still the same guy.

Indianapolis Colts

Good – You are third in the league in offense and scoring offense, even Trent Richardson is contributing.

Bad – Despite great offense, you've lost twice because your defense can’t stop anything.

Tennessee Titans

Good – How about that first game!

Bad – The rumors a Jake Locker resurgence were greatly exaggerated. He is warm garbage.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Good – Blake Bortles could be good?

Bad – There is no team to put behind Bortles. You are terrible.

Denver Broncos

Good – You are the only team in the league that could drive down the field on the Seahawks in Seattle with under a minute and no timeouts. Also, most of the AFC sucks, so it should be pretty easy to make it to at least the AFC Championship without a challenge.

Bad – There are still a fair amount of problems on defense, Montee Ball is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry, the general lack of challenge the AFC presents might make you soft for the Super Bowl.

San Diego Chargers

Good – You beat the Seahawks, the defense has been surprisingly solid, Rivers looks good, and if you had held on in week one against the Cardinals, people might say you've been the best team in the league thus far.

Bad – Danny Woodhead is done for the season, and although he hadn't had a huge impact to this point, that is a big loss.

Kansas City Chiefs

Good – It seems as if Knile Davis is legit and should give you scary backfield options when Charles returns.

Bad – Too many injuries already, and you aren't going to come anywhere close to last year’s turnover differential.

Oakland Raiders

Good – You are not the Jaguars

Bad – You are also not any of the other 30 teams


Next week the NFC.

Last Week: 12-4
Lock of the Week: 3-0
Season: 24-24

Home team in CAPS

REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants

Thursday night home teams.

Dolphins (-4) over Oakland

The Raiders are the “home” team in London. England should really quit on American football with the games we are sending over there.

BEARS (+1.5) over Packers

Green Bay just looked worthless in Detroit, so sure, let’s favor them in Chicago. Makes a lot of sense.

Bills (+3) over TEXANS

One of these defenses will score. That team will win.

COLTS (-7.5) over Titans

Remember after week one it looked like maybe the Titans would be decent?

RAVENS (-3) over Panthers
Lock of the Week

Watch this game. Steve Smith is going to do something amazing. Remember in his prime when he would go off any time he thought an opposing defensive back had slighted him prior to the game? Now he is playing a whole team that slighted him. I’m ready to believe that he will get 225 yards receiving and am equally ready to believe that he will start a big fight and get ejected.

Lions (-1.5) over JETS

The Jets are just good enough to make people think they might cover a spread. They will not.

STEELERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers

I’m picking the Steelers, but am legitimately nervous. The whole country watched Tampa get decimated last week and probably everyone is going to bet against them expecting another blow out. This of course means that they will somehow make this game close or maybe even win to ruin everyone’s Colts-Steelers teaser.

Jaguars (+13) over CHARGERS

I am stupid for picking the Jags, but I don’t think the Chargers are quite as good as they’ve looked and maybe Blake Bortles will inspire the Jags to not get blown out of the building.

Eagles (+5.5) over 49ERS

San Fran desperately needs this game, but it is possible that they just aren’t very good. They have yet to score in the fourth quarter and they lead the league in penalties. I predict Jim Harbaugh will be coaching a different team in 2015.

VIKINGS (+3) over Falcons

I was all set to pick Atlanta, until I remember that Minnesota is not playing in a dome this year. Much like Drew Brees, I don’t trust Matt Ryan outdoors.

Saints (-3) over COWBOYS

Even in covering their double-digit spread last week the Saints didn’t look good. They need to have an impressive offensive performance this week or I will be giving up on their hopes.

Patriots (-3.5) over CHIEFS

The annoying thing will be even if the Patriots lose this game, and look mediocre all year, they’ll still end up 10-6 or 11-5, win the division and get a home playoff game.