Week 2: Already Falling Behind

Picking up right where I left off, making bad picks. Although I went 6-10 on the weekend, I feel as if I learned a few things about these football teams. This will give me the confidence I need to lose a good chunk of money.

What we did learn last week (here is where I should say the answer is nothing, we learn nothing from week one, don’t overreact) is that the underdogs dominated. This makes sense early in the season as you typically don’t see huge lines until the really good and bad teams have established themselves as such. Will this trend help me in week two? Signs point to no.

Last Week: 6-10
Lock of the Week: 1-0
Season: 6-10

Home team in CAPS

Steelers (+2.5) over RAVENS

There isn’t much left to say about the Ray Rice situation. Mishandled all around. The Ravens and the NFL are either clueless (if they didn’t see the video) or much worse (if they did see the video). And excuse me if I don’t give the NFL a ton of credit for launching an independent investigation overseen by two owners of NFL teams. Seem like at least a bit of a conflict of interest to anyone else?

As far as this game goes, the Ravens and Steelers always play each other close so I’ll take the points (and the team not mired in a controversy).

Lions (+3) over PANTHERS

The stay away game of the week. More information is needed on both of these teams. The Panthers defense is still among the best, but their weakest spot is in the secondary; which is where Detroit can attack a team. Otherwise Carolina is all around better. Again, I don’t like this game. Stay away.

Dolphins (-1) over BILLS

Both teams had impressive wins in week one, but I trust the Dolphins more despite being the road team. Buffalo beat a Bears team that may end up being turnover prone with a bottom third defense. Still an impressive road win, but I don’t trust they can put a complete game together two weeks in a row, at least not yet.

Jaguars (+6) over REDSKINS

Sorry, the Redskins don’t give anyone six points. Not after only scoring six points themselves last week.

TITANS (-3.5) over Cowboys

Wish this line moved a point either way.

GIANTS (+2.5) over Cardinals

Home underdog against a team travelling from Pacific Time to Eastern Time. I might be ignoring the evidence that Eli Manning is donezo, but taking the points. Speaking of Eli, is he going to end up as the worst quarterback in the Hall of Fame? On first glance, that honor currently belongs to Joe Namath (although a deeper look into advanced statistics shows that Namath was far better than his standard numbers give him credit) – but if Eli ends up in the Hall, and with 2 Super Bowl MVPs he likely will, he will take that honor. And hey, a Hall of Fame QB is still a Hall of Fame QB, even if he is the shittiest one.

Patriots (-3) over VIKINGS
Lock of the Week

No way will the Patriots lose two games in a row. My biggest concern about this line is that it seems too easy. I think the Vikings value is overinflated after beating a hopeless looking Rams team, if this game was last week I think the Pats would be favored by a touchdown. While the Vikings have a chance to be one of the most improved teams in the league, they don’t have a chance to beat New England. If somehow they do beat the Patriots, that might signal the end of Patriots dominance, so in a way betting on the Pats is win-win.

Saints (-6.5) over BROWNS

This line is dangerously high and I feel like I should take the points. Yet, here I am, picking the Saints.

Falcons (+5) over BENGALS

Far more impressed with Atlanta’s win than Cincinnati’s win. The Bengals are dangerous at home, but sticking with the points.

Rams (+6) over BUCCANEERS

The Rams were unquestionably the worst team in the league last week. Even considering that fact, I am not ready to give Tampa Bay six points yet until Josh McCown shows me some signs of his 2013 run. And let’s not forget before we anoint the Rams the worst team of the year – they should still have a solid defense that keeps things close against offensively challenged teams.

CHARGERS (+6) over Seahawks

Don’t look too much into week one. Trust the home underdogs. Don’t look too much into week one. Trust the home underdogs. I have to keep saying this because if I start looking into or thinking about this game I will immediately jump to Seattle. Sidenote: does Pete Carroll have the strongest jaw in the country? That guy chews gums with an unmatched tenacity. I'm sure his wife enjoys that jaw stamina.

Texans (-3) over RAIDERS

I’m always shocked when the Raiders cover a spread. Can’t happen two weeks in a row, right?

PACKERS (-8) over Jets

Green Bay got gashed last week and their offense failed to live up to expectations. Although the Jets still have a solid defense, they can’t even come close to matching Seattle’s secondary. Rodgers and the Packers will make up for lost time and explode all over the scoreboard’s face.

Chiefs (+13) over BRONCOS

The Chiefs just have to play better than they played last week, right? It is embarrassing to be coming off an 11-win, playoff season and be a double-digit underdog in the second week of the season. But, it makes total sense and Denver will probably cover. Still, need to bet the other way on principle.

Bears (+7) over 49ERS

Glossed over in the 49ers win is that their offense put up a lackluster performance against what is supposed to be a catastrophically bad Dallas defense. The Bears defense isn’t anything to write home about either, but San Francisco didn’t inspire enough confidence for me to bet on them, despite winning by double digit points on the road.

COLTS (-3) over Eagles

When in doubt, bet against the NFC East. Also, Andrew Luck > Nick Foles.