Week 6: Where I Pick Too Many Favorites

I’ll be honest, last week I paid almost no attention to football because I was focusing on playoff baseball. I know, I’m as surprised as you are. Also, last week I really didn’t like in of the spreads very much (yet I still put up a winning record, showing that it really doesn’t matter too much if I think my picks are a good bet or not).

Last week: 9-6
Lock of the week: 5-0
Season: 39-37

Home team in CAPS

Colts (-3) over TEXANS

The Colts defense is forcing turnovers; they are sustaining a mediocre rushing game; they have only allowed six sacks and 18 hits on Luck through five games (last year they let up the 2nd most QB hits). If they can hold those trends, they will have a shot to compete with the top dogs in the AFC. Of course, it is also possible their offensive line gets eaten alive this game.

JETS (+10) over Broncos

New York opened as only 4.5-point underdogs? How did that happen? Really wish I had bet early this week, but it has now risen to 10. Is that still a good bet? Probably, but I’m staying away from double digit favorites after forgetting that I was doing that last week.

BROWNS (-1.5) over Steelers
The first rematch of the season. Seems early for a rematch. Also seems kinda boring.

TITANS (-6) over Jaguars

One of these days Jacksonville will cover a spread and this may be their best shot, but I don’t see any reason to pick them until after that day comes.

FALCONS (-3) over Bears

Bet on Atlanta at home, bet against Atlanta on the road. Sometimes gambling needs to be simplified, not complicated.

DOLPHINS (+3) over Packers

My thoughts are that the Packers are looking good and Miami is nothing special. My deeper thoughts are that I am 2-7 in my picks on these two teams, so all my instincts about them are wrong. So my action is betting on the team I think will lose.

VIKINGS (+1.5) over Lions

The Lions without a good offense is like Martin with no Gina. I’ll take the home team with the points.

Panthers (+7) over BENGALS

It is entirely possible that Cincinnati wins by 25 points or something, but I expect this game to be close and low scoring.

BILLS (+3) over Patriots

I’m prepared for the next down on the Patriots see-saw season.

Ravens (-3) over BUCCANEERS

Lock of the Week

I had to double check this line. Is this line close because the Bucs almost beat the Saints last week? The Saints are garbage. Almost beating the Saints means nothing. Remember how terrible this Bucs team was the first three weeks of the year. This is still the same team. A team of garbage.

Chargers (-7) over RAIDERS

San Diego is the only team undefeated against the spread. We are at the ride your horses time of year.

SEAHAWKS (-8) over Cowboys

The bad news is that Dallas is 4-1 and it isn’t unrealistic to see them finding a way to make it to 8-2. The good news is that they are the Cowboys and could start 8-2 and find a way to lose their last six games and miss the playoffs. That would be pretty fun.

CARDINALS (-3.5) over Redskins

You are suggesting on a neutral field that the Cardinals would only be favored by a half point against the Redskins? I know Arizona got beat soundly last week, but I feel like I’m missing something. I guess it depends who the Cards will have at QB, but does it really matter?

Giants (+3) over EAGLES

Oh boy I hope the stupid Giants don’t become good this season, but I’m a little bit worried.

49ers (-3.5) over RAMS

I don’t want to pick all the favorites, but these lines are making it hard for me (I’ve already changed multiple of my first instinct picks to get more underdogs in the mix). As much as I still think the 49ers are average this year, their defense should still keep the Rams from doing much of anything.