Conference Championship Game Picks

Let’s all take a minute and enjoy what last weekend had to offer one more time. It was one of the best rounds of playoff football I can ever remember. Two games were classics and one featured 76 points and the best rushing performance by a quarterback ever. If you like offense it was about as good as it gets. There was an average of 69 points scored per game! That is crazy town.

Now, on the negative side, there is no way these Conference Championships live up to the Divisional round. It’s just not possible. Hopefully we didn't blow all our playoff goodness too early and left something for this Sunday and the Super Bowl.

Last week: 3-1
Playoffs: 6-2
Playoff Locks of the Week: 2-0
Season (including playoffs): 130-125-9

San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Atlanta Falcons

My first instinct regarding this game was that the 49ers are the more dangerous team and if both teams play well, San Francisco should still win. Prior to their game against the Packers I got hit with the feeling that the Niners were going to win the Super Bowl this year. BUT, a top-seeded home team should not be a four-point underdog. It just doesn’t make sense.

This line was pushed by how both NFC games ended last week. The Falcons let up 21 points in the fourth quarter and were at least somewhat lucky to move the ball into field goal range with great ease and win. The 49ers ran away late and Colin Kaepernick made everyone look slow. It looked as if no one could stop him, but he has been stopped before so this is clearly not true.

I’m not saying the 49ers aren’t the better team, but I don’t think the line is right. Atlanta is 8-1 at home with their only loss coming in a meaningless game. San Francisco still lacks consistency. Last time they had a huge offensive week was against the Patriots in Week 15; they followed it up by getting blown out in Seattle.

Also, it’s worth noting that for having one of the best defenses in football, the 49ers have let up over 30 points in three of their last four games (and the only game they didn’t was against the Cardinals who couldn’t score 30 points in an 11 vs. 0 practice). Not that all of those points have been the fault of the defense, but still, something worries me about a team that hangs its hat on defense and then lets up 30

Ultimately I still think the Niners will win, but this game will be close and if it’s going to be close I’m going to lean against the public and on the points.

Final score prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 27


Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8)

Lock of the Week (sidenote: picking a lock out of two games is both stupid and hard)

Baltimore probably deserves a pat on the back for depriving us of the media shit storm that would have been Brady vs. Manning. The Ravens shocked everyone last week and reminded us that for a chunk of the season they were somehow good at offense.

The most important factor in the Ravens beating the Broncos was big plays. Baltimore got three scores on passes of over 30 yards. During the regular season, Denver only allowed 39 plays of 20+ yards, fifth best in the league. The Patriots on the other hand, allowed a league worst 74 plays of 20+ yards. Obviously this does not mean the Ravens will be able to get twice as many big passing plays, but it is a weakness that can be attacked.

On the other side, Baltimore’s defense certainly won’t be able to stop New England, so they better hope they can hit some of those big plays. Yes, the Ravens won their Week 3 matchup, but that doesn’t have a big impact on this game. The Patriots are a far better team than they were early on, I mean they lost to the Cardinals the previous week, so clearly something wasn’t working right for them at the time. What is more important is that these two almost always play each other close.

Final score prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 23

I realize expecting two teams to cover, but neither to win is quite stupid. But, hey, shut up!