All these ideas of rules to follow in the playoffs that were popularized by Bill Simmons are irrelevant. Last year every home team won, two years ago three road teams won (sidenote: two years ago the Chiefs were in the playoffs! The Chiefs! This year they were one of the most impressively terrible teams I’ve ever seen play football).
So this year I’m going to try not to overthink myself, but I’m fairly certain I’ve already failed.
On the plus side, for the first time since I’ve started doing these picks I finished a season over .500, admittedly only one game over .500, but still a winning record. Sure, it’s a winning record which would result in me losing money had I bet on every game, but it is a winning record damnit!
Last Week: 8-8
Season: 124-123-9
Lock of the Week: 7-8-1 (forgot to pick one last week!)
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Admittedly the Texans are struggling big time, having lost three of their last four games. The Bengals meanwhile have won three-straight and seven of their last eight (I actually didn’t know they were that hot until looking it up right now). Still, they haven’t impressed me and the fact that many people are picking them as the upset of the week gives me more confidence in the Texans.
Despite recent struggles (keep in mind all three losses were to playoff teams, two of them on the road), Houston is still the more talented team. Also, keep in mind that a big reason for the Bengals late-season success was BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and he won’t be 100% on Saturday.
The other reason the Bengals finished the year on a tear was the play of their defense. No team they faced in the second half of the season had nearly as many weapons as the Texans do.
Final score prediction: Texans 24, Bengals 14
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Adrian Peterson ran for over 400 yards in two games against the Packers this season. That is incredible and clearly he has the talent to gash them again on Saturday, but I just don’t see Green Bay losing twice in a week to the same team. In fact, I don’t think it will be very close.
The Packers will key in on Peterson and force Ponder to beat them, but I don’t think he is up to the task. Ponder has played decently well over the past few weeks, but the playoffs are a different monster. I think the experience of Green Bay will really come through and the defense will force multiple turnovers. Also, this is the first game in a while that Rodgers will have his full stable of receivers and I expect at least 30 points out of the Packers.
Final score prediction: Packers 34, Vikings 20
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
All year I’ve been talking about how excited I am for the Colts to reach the playoff and the chance to bet against them. Then they draw the Ravens and are given seven points.
The Ravens lost four of their last five games and turned into a total mess. Meanwhile, the Colts went from looking lucky early in the season to solid at the end of the season. Still, Baltimore is somehow favored by a touchdown, most likely because of people like me who were so ready to bet against the Colts.
I don’t know what to make of the fact that the Colts have looked like the better team down the stretch, but are still getting very little respect. It makes me partially want to jump on the Indianapolis bet, and partially makes me think Vegas is confirming my thoughts that the Colts aren’t very good. What it really means is I should stay away from betting on the game, but this is the playoffs damnit! And we bet on every game regardless of if we have the slightest idea what will happen!
Keeping in mind that the Colts are only 4-4 on the road and the Ravens will be super jazzed up because Ray Lewis has decided to ride off into space on his Raven rocket…
Final score prediction: Ravens 24, Colts 16
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Washington Redskins
Up front note: there is no way I can possibly be impartial in writing about this game. In fact just typing the matchup started to make my body twitch with nerves.
Obviously, I’m worried about the Seahawks. They are super-hot, feature a great defense and great rushing attack. The Redskins are also super-hot, but have had to battle a bit more than Seattle to get their wins and RG3 still looks a bit hobbled by that knee.
BUT, I did not expect Seattle to be favored by three points. They are the road team, coming across the country, they are hot, but they still went 3-5 on the road this year. Sure they have won five straight with three huge blowouts, but look closer. The blowout win over San Francisco might have been the most impressive game any team has played in the NFL this season, and that is the only reason everyone is in love with them right now. And that game was in Seattle. In Seattle, this team is essentially unbeatable. But the other two blowouts were over the Bills and Cardinals – not that impressive.
Don’t take this to mean I don’t think the Seahawks are really good, because I do, they only have three turnovers in their last six games and in that time have forced 15 (but eight of those came in the Cardinals game). Marshawn Lynch is a beast, Russell Wilson is a playmaker with poise, they have the best secondary in football, etc.
Also, it is not as if the Redskins have beaten a string of superteams on their seven game run. They beat one playoff team, the struggling Ravens, five division opponents who look less impressive with the season over, and the Browns. As mentioned, RG3 is not full speed and their defense is not the greatest. BUT, they are still very impressive as well. Pro-Bowl snub Alfred Morris outgained Lynch, they’ve been tested in close games, have protected the ball, and have even started forcing turnovers recently.
Final score prediction: Redskins 27, Seahawks 24
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