Divisional Playoff Picks

So here in D.C., all the talk the past week has been about RG3 and how his injury was mishandled, etc. Figured I might as well give my quick two cents which I believe most everyone understands, obviously Shanahan was screwed either way.

Keep RG3 in the game and something like this could happen. Even if he didn’t get seriously injured there would be a lot of second guessing saying he clearly wasn’t effective, should have been taken out of the game, etc. But if Shanahan did take him out of the game and they still lost (which they probably would have) then everyone would be killing him for taking Bobby GGG out of the game. The dumbest thing Shanahan did was not alter the play calling. Keep up with the power running game and call plays that have the QB getting rid of the ball quickly on passing downs. At halftime if it was clear Griffin couldn’t even plant and make simple throws, replace him with Cousins.

The annoying thing is now people will forget about the whole season and focus just on how it ended. RG3 and the Redskins significantly exceeded expectations; fans should be pleased with the season and worried about the health of their quarterback, not questioning the entire offensive system. Sure, RGIII needs to run a bit less, but he is still going to run the ball and can still get injured on any play because he plays football, a sport that is very dangerous.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Playoff Locks of the Week: 1-0
Season (including playoffs): 127-124-9

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5)

There are so many dumb extraneous storylines for these playoff games and this one in particular.

Did you know Peyton Manning has beaten the Ravens nine straight times? He has also never lost to the Ravens in the playoffs!

Do you know how many times he has faced Baltimore in the playoffs? Two, two times. The scores of those games? 20-3 in 2009 and 15-6 in 2006 (years reference the seasons not the game dates). First of all, two games is not a significant sample size. Second, these games were three and six years ago. Third, he played for the Indianapolis Colts then, you may or may not know this but that is a different team than the Denver Broncos. Fourth, judging from the scores it seems like Manning beating the Ravens had a lot more to do with the Ravens being unable to score any points. Here are Manning’s combined stats from his two playoff wins over Baltimore: 45-for-74, 416 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions. Yep, he really has their number in the playoffs!

Another dumb “storyline” – Peyton Manning is 0-3 in playoff games below 40 degrees!

Um, he spent his career playing in a dome in Indianapolis! Now he plays on a cold weather team, this is a pretty important difference. All those cold weather losses were on the road with a dome team, now he will be playing at home on a team that is used to playing in the cold. Two of those below-40 losses came to eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots teams, these Ravens are not Super Bowl champion material. This stat is infuriatingly stupid and what makes it worse is how people talk about it. ESPN had their football idiots standing outside of their building in Bristol because it was cold outside. You see, standing in the cold makes one much more knowledgeable about playing in the cold and you basically have to listen to their points, because they know what it is like to be in a cold weather environment.

Final score prediction: Broncos 27, Ravens 16


Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3) 

I’ll say upfront, I am at a crossroads when it comes to this game. On the one side is what I think is going to happen, and on the other side is realizing that far too much of the public thinks the same way. So rather than go with my gut, I’m going against the will of the masses.

The 49ers just aren’t being given enough credit. Sure, Green Bay is the hotter team, Aaron Rodgers is really good, and they are finally getting healthy, etc. But it seems like everyone is counting out the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense is really good and they can run the ball very well, something Green Bay is not great at stopping.

Here is the most important fact, the Packers went 4-4 on the road this year and it’s not like all their road losses came early on either. They lost their last two games on the road, in Indy and in Seattle. Purely from lack of respect for these factors, I’m taking the Niners.

Final score prediction: 49ers 25, Packers 21


Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) 

Honestly I thought everyone would be picking the Seahawks and that made me nervous, but apparently they aren’t quite the hot pick I thought they’d be this week.

Not that it has a single thing to do with the Falcons, but the No. 1 seed in the NFC has lost in the Divisional Playoffs in four of the last five seasons. That is pretty incredible and it seems like this is the perfect matchup to keep that trend going.

The line is probably a little on the low side for a team that finished 13-3 and 7-1 at home, with the only loss being in a meaningless Week 17 game, but still have people forgotten how hot the Seahawks are? They have one of the best secondaries in the league and if you shut down the Falcons passing attack they are in big trouble.

Also Matt Ryan has been hot garbage in the playoffs in previous years. All season people have mentioned how the Falcons were going to choke in the playoffs and now over 50% of people are picking them to cover against the team that everyone said was the team to beat in the NFC last week? I don’t get it.

In Week 2 I wrote – “For some reason I see this Falcons team head to 12 wins and another early playoff exit.” I’m sticking to that.

Final score prediction: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17


Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Lock of the Week

I’d love to pick against the Patriots here, but I’m not sure if it’s possible. They destroyed Houston just over a month ago and that was without their top red zone threat, super bro Gronkowski. Also, the Texans have been miserable for a while now.

Last week Houston barely beat the Bengals and Andy Dalton had perhaps the worst game of his season. Don’t expect Tom Brady to miss wide open receivers like Dalton did.

The only chance the Texans have is if their defense plays out of its mind, they win the turnover battle, and dominate time of possession. I just don’t see it.

Final score prediction: Patriots 33, Texans 16