Week 15 picks - The End is Near

The Redskins situation is so ugly that I barely want to watch any football. Couple that with the fact that both my fantasy teams are out and I’ve had real work to do at work, and all of the sudden it’s the middle of the day on Thursday and I’ve forgotten that NFL Week 15 starts tonight.

Hoping to build on back-to-back winning weeks and finish strong. Except of course for my lock of the week, which is still hot garbage.

Last Week: 9-7
Joke of the Week: 3-10-1
Season: 92-109-8

Home team in CAPS

BRONCOS (-10.5) over Chargers

I want to say this spread is too high, but Denver continues to crank out large victories and appears unbeatable at home (for now, this opinion/fact could change during the playoffs).

FALCONS (-7) over Redskins

It seems impossible for this Redskins season to end in any way other than them finishing with the worst record and handing the number one pick to the Rams.

49ers (-5) over BUCCANEERS

I can’t believe that Tampa is a capable team. Sure, I haven’t watched them actually play at all this year, but I’m sticking to my guns. My guns being believing in the narrative that was created when they were 0-7 (I know they went 0-8 to start, but that 8th loss was a really close game in Seattle, the first signs that perhaps they aren’t terrible and perhaps Greg Schiano isn’t the worst).

Seahawks (-7) over GIANTS

The most interceptions Eli Manning has thrown in a season is 25. He is at 20 right now with three games to go. Can he break it? I believe in you Eli!

Bears (even) over BROWNS

Jay Cutler is likely to play and the Bears go from underdogs to even? People are familiar with Jay Cutler right? Just so another team feels confused by their quarterback situation, I hope Cutler starts the rest of the season, plays poorly, and then is offered a multi-million dollar contract to stay in Chicago.

COLTS (-5.5) over Texans

In order for the Redskins to end up with that top pick (and then not actually have it) the Texans have to get at least one win in there somewhere and I’m not sure if that’s possible, but it will happen because, Redskins.

Bills (+2) over JAGUARS

Remember when we all thought the Jaguars would end the season winless?

Patriots (even) over DOLPHINS

I get that the Patriots have been subpar on the road, with their only wins coming over the Falcons, Texans, and Bills – by a collective 12 points, but well, actually --

DOLPHINS (even) over Patriots

I’ve convinced myself.

Eagles (-4.5) over VIKINGS

Lock of the Week
Let's see how good the Eagles really are. Can they fight through my lock of the week jinx? Ultimately, I’m fine with the Eagles recovering from a bad season, starting slow and then rallying to win the NFC East. We all know what happens to those teams the following year.

PANTHERS (-11) over Jets

One of two things happen – either the Jets play like they have on the road all season, and turn the ball over a ton as Carolina beats up on a bad team to feel better about their spanking last week. OR Carolina is looking past the Jets to another shot at the Saints to redeem themselves from their spanking and get caught in a trap game.

RAMS (+6) over Saints

New Orleans has lost its last four road games against the spread and St. Louis does well against teams that are not strong defensively.

Cardinals (-3) over TITANS

Arizona seems poised to just miss the playoff and have people get really excited about them. But then those people will at some point remember that Carson Palmer is 34 and Carson Palmer. Fun game – guess the age difference between Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington? While tempted to guess 12 years, the actual answer is only two years.

Chiefs (-4.5) over RAIDERS

The tendency is to think that Kansas City is a team with among the strongest home field advantage in the league, but they are actually 5-1 against the spread on the road and just 2-5 ATS at home.

COWBOYS (-7) over Packers

If Aaron Rodgers plays, take whatever the spread is and bet on Green Bay.

STEELERS (+2.5) over Bengals

I still like the AFC North on the road in divisional games.

LIONS (-6) over Ravens

And I mostly like that because AFC North teams are terrible on the road. I don’t remember home field being this important in the NFL in recent years, so I looked it up. This year home teams have won 61.84% of games. In 2012, 57.25% of home teams won. In 2011, 56.64%. And in 2010, 55.86%. Also, home favorites are covering 55.22% of games, which is far better than my own winning percentage.