2013 - Week 6

One reason I don’t think I’m a very good gambler is that I struggle with decisions of any magnitude. I never fully trust my instincts and typically find ways to argue both sides against each other, keeping me from truly believing in something 100% all the way.

When it comes to football I enter each week (at least this year) with few strong opinions and just hoping to get some things right. This keeps me from gambling large sums of money most of the time, which I guess is good, but makes one wonder what I’m doing writing NFL picks every week and why anyone would ever read it. Of course no one is coming here for real advice. And if you want, you can always pick against all of my picks (data supports this as a lucrative gambling method).

Last week: 6-8
Lock of the week: 1-4
Season: 32-43-2

Home team in CAPS

BEARS (-7.5) over Giants

I bet when the NFL Network made the Thursday night schedule they were super excited about this game. Two big market teams that had recent playoff success. Except now the Giants are 0-5 and just lost their starting running back who had not been producing and are forced to turn to an even less productive runner. The Bears defense stands a 50% chance of being the highest scoring fantasy player in the game.

Raiders (+9) over CHIEFS

With Pryor, the Raiders have put up a good fight in all their games and Kansas City is not the type of team to blow people out of the water, so I think this will be closer than the spread.

BUCS (+1) over Eagles

This could be a good bad game (but it will definitely be a bad game). The Eagles have one of the best offenses and the Bucs have one of the best defense, so that will be fun. But on the other side of the ball, the Bucs cannot move and the Eagles cannot stop anything, so something’s gotta give there. When in doubt, pick against the NFC East.

RAVENS (+3) over Packers

Green Bay is 0-2 on the road, so them being favored by three points doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

BROWNS (+2.5) over Lions

I want to keep riding the home underdog, but am I supposed to believe in Cleveland? Am I picking Cleveland? Fool, this will never work.

VIKINGS (-1.5) over Panthers

Minnesota could soon have a three-way mid-season quarterback controversy, which should be fun. Ponder, Cassel, and Freeman in a race for who can be the most mediocre without losing the game by himself!

Rams (+7.5) over TEXANS

I do not feel comfortable betting on the Rams two weeks in a row, but the Texans have not won a game by a significant margin this entire season and are getting close to turning to T.J. Yates. Hard to pick them to win by more than a touchdown.

JETS (-1.5) over Steelers

Lock of the Week
Looking at these teams on paper, there is no reason that the spread should be this close. Statistically, the Steelers have a worse offense and defense, yet this line says they would be favored on a neutral field? I’m not buying it, this line is still set on expectations, not reality.

Bengals (-7) over BILLS

The Bills STARTING quarterback is Thaddeus Lewis. He was on the practice squad less than a week ago.

SEAHAWKS (-13.5) over Titans

I still believe that the Seahawks at home are the best team in the NFL. I think they will win all games in Seattle by an average of 20 points. 13.5 is less than 20, ergo, my pick.

BRONCOS (-27.5) over Jaguars

I’m sure you are all aware of how large of a mismatch this game is, and if you weren't, you could look at the line and determine that is a game of historically vs. historically bad. It is just a stupid big line, but still I think the Broncos are the logical choice, which is absolutely insane. The best way to sum everything about these teams up is with this infographic from SB Nation.

49ERS (-10.5) over Cardinals

Three double-digit favorites and I’m picking them all. I’m sure nothing could possiblie go wrong.

PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Saints

There is a good chance this will be Gronk’s first game back for the Pats and it just so happens to be against the team with the current best tight end in the league in Jimmy Graham. I could see either guy (or both) having an “I’m the best” statement game.

Redskins (+5.5) over COWBOYS

My philosophy is if one of these two teams is ever favored by more than four points against the other, take the underdog (also the Skins have covered the last six spreads between the two).

Colts (-1.5) over CHARGERS

How big of a football fan would you have to be to choose Indianapolis as your home over San Diego? I can't really think of an amount that makes sense.