Week 3 was the week the NFL made us all feel stupid for thinking we knew what was going on. Trying to draw trends out of only two games is probably a mistake to begin with and on top of that teams that looked as if they had no business winning came out of nowhere to win their Week 3 games outright. The Chiefs, Raiders, Jaguars and Titans all won. For the first two weeks they were four of the worst five teams in the league along with the Browns. (Trusty old Browns, you’ll always be terrible.) As a result I had my first losing week of the season and now feel as if every game is a complete toss up … I mean, read my picks, I’m very smart.
Last Week: 6-10
Season: 23-23-2
Lock of the Week: 2-1
Home team in CAPS
RAVENS (-12) over Browns
Simple analysis: The Ravens are very good and the Browns are very bad. What’s funny about the Ravens is that most people still think of them as an elite defensive team with an average offense. They happen to currently rank second in points and fourth in yards on offense and 27th in yards allowed on defense (15th in points allowed). They will torch a very bad Browns pass defense.
Patriots (-4) over BILLS
Lock of the Week The Patriots have their first sub-.500 record since they were 0-1 in 2003, but they are so very close to being 3-0. There are two ways to look at this: One, it is just bad luck that’s keeping the Pats down; they are still one of the best teams in the league. Two, the Patriots mystique that caused them to somehow always win close games is officially dead and buried; they are just like everyone else now. Either way, the Bills will suffer the wrath of an angry Belichick on Sunday.
LIONS (-5) over Vikings
Congratulations to the Vikings for ruining survivor pools across the country by beating the 49ers last week, I still refuse to give them credit. The lines are kind of all over the place with Matthew Stafford’s status for Sunday uncertain (but he’s gonna play).
FALCONS (-7) over Panthers
After last Thursday’s performance people might slowly be realizing that the Panthers are in big trouble this season. They haven’t been able to do anything on offense except when they played the Saints, who seem incapable of playing bounty-less defense. Their rushing offense, which was third best in the NFL last season, is non-existent. Now they get to play the Falcons, who have looked like the best team in the league.
49ers (-4) over JETS
Despite the 49ers performance last week I still put my complete faith in them and expect them to win the Super Bowl.
Chargers (+1) over CHIEFS
So the Chiefs are favored in a game. Super. That’s cute. Here is why stats are stupid and I should stop looking at them - the Chiefs currently have the NFL’s top ranked offense in terms of yardage.
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| Seriously, he's completely in the open |
The Texans have the best point differential in the league at +46, the Titans have the worst at -46. The Titans only won last week because they returned a punt, a kickoff, and a fumble for TDs. Their only two offensive TDs were on passes of 61 and 71 yards. Go ahead and put extra men in the secondary to stop the big play and there is no way they score. Chris Johnson is less effective at running the ball than opposing soldiers are at shooting John Rambo.
Seahawks (-2.5) over Rams
Is it possible that the NFC West is somehow the best division in football? I’ve decided that no, it’s not possible. Until the Rams can generate offense against someone other than the Redskins I’ll still believe that they are terrible.
CARDINALS (-5.5) over Dolphins
The Cardinals next four games are against the Dolphins, Rams, Bills, and Vikings. All conceivably very winnable, which means they could be 7-0. I really hope this happens because they then play the 49ers, Packers, and Falcons in consecutive weeks. If Arizona is favored in any of those games it is basically like free money.
BRONCOS (-6.5) over Raiders
As I go through these picks I realize that Week 3 did not actually teach me any lesson whatsoever. I’m still picking against the teams that I think are horrible, despite the fact that many of those teams won last week. But seriously, the Raiders, come on.
Bengals (-2.5) over JAGUARS
How many people are too many people to put in the box against Jacksonville? 10? 11? Is there really any chance Blaine Gabbert beats you passing the ball?
Saints (+7.5) over Packers
The Saints look as if they might have the worst rushing defense in NFL history and are possibly the worst team in the NFC at this point. They’ve lost to the Redskins, Panthers, and Chiefs; all of whom have not beaten anyone else. Yet, still I can’t go with the Packers here because the Saints will score at least 20 points and I don’t have any faith in Green Bay’s offense to cover by over a TD in that scenario.
Redskins (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS
Against my better judgment I keep picking the Redskins. The Bucs are 3-0 against the spread, but that’s just because they’ve been underdogs every week. This game will be close, as nearly every game either of these teams play this year will be, so I’ll take the points. All things considered it’s more fun to watch the Redskins lose close games with a lot of offense this season than it has been to watch them lose close games with a lot of defense in past seasons.
EAGLES (-2) over Giants
The Giants offense has looked good the past two weeks, but keep in mind that they have only beaten the Bucs and Panthers. Also, there is no way the Eagles can continue with the astonishing rate at which they have been turning the ball over.
Bears (+3.5) over COWBOYS
Perhaps the two biggest head case teams in the NFL. Either one can play well enough to beat anyone, but both teams also have the capability of completely shutting down. I’d love to see a battle between bad Tony Romo and bad Jay Cutler. I say there would be more screaming and blame deflection from Cutler than tears and hanging his head from Romo, but it’d be close.
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