Week 1 NFL Picks

It’s a new season and Gamblor has moved homes. I’ve gone from a professional website to a very basic cookie cutter blogger.com format (expect the look and feel to change through the year until I find something decent). The primary reason is that I’m no longer employed, which of course means the accuracy of my picks is even more important because I can’t afford not to win.

Now, let’s move on to the NFL season that I seem to be completely indifferent towards! I barely watched the opening game between the Cowboys and Giants and am not particularly excited for any of the upcoming season. I’ll be missing the first Sunday of games and this doesn’t bother me at all. In other years I’d be worried all day about what was happening and perhaps try to listen to the games on the radio, but not this year. This year I don’t particularly care. 

I think the Redskins have officially beaten me to the point of submission. I should probably be excited about the start of the RG3 era, more excited than I have been in years. But I have no faith in the Redskins coaching staff, the talent around him, and most importantly the offensive line. Good thing they traded away their first round draft picks for the next 27 years, they wouldn’t want to build an entire team of talented players. 

Oh, I also just watched Two for the Money, which made me never want to gamble on sports. Now pay attention to the football picks of an unmotivated, uninformed man! 

Last Season: 119-127-10 

Home Team in CAPS


GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys

That’s right, I’m 0-1 before my first round of picks have even been published. I dare anyone to fail with that unprecedented level of efficiency. For some reason I thought the Giants would be more prepared than the Cowboys or that we’d at least see another Tony Romo fourth quarter meltdown, but it wasn’t meant to be.

BEARS (-10) over Colts

Ten points is a lot, but I’ll take my chances against a rookie QB on the road in Chicago.

Eagles (-8.5) over BROWNS

The Browns are terrible. Their two most important players on offense will be rookies, and quick name me the top Browns wide receiver. Did you come up with Greg Little? Shut up, no you didn’t stop lying, no one knows who Greg Little is.

JETS (-3) over Bills

I know the Jets were terrible during the preseason, but the Bills were almost as bad and are still the same Bills who lost eight of their last nine games last season.  No matter what happens I’m ready for some classic overreactions about the Jets. When will Tebow chants start? The first three and out? I’m ready for the Lord’s Force.

SAINTS (-7) over Redskins

I think my overwhelming pessimism regarding the Redskins is well established, but I’ll just clarify. Rookie QB on the road with no O-line against a team that will be super eager to show it can still win without a bounty system in place equals blow out.

Patriots (-5.5) over TITANS
Lock of the Week

The last time these two teams played the Patriots won 59-0. Sure that was in 2009, but convince me the Titans have gotten 50 points better. Yeah, sure they aren’t relying on the amazing duo of Vince Young or Kerry Collins anymore and that might be worth 35 points, but not 50.

Jaguars (+4) over VIKINGS

What an absolutely terrible game. Both teams are starting second-year QBs who weren’t exactly great last year and both will not have their all-pro RBs starting the game. The Jaguars at least had a decent defense last year while the Vikings were all-around terrible. I have no desire to pick Blaine Gabbert to cover a spread, but the game will probably be 3-0 so either way Jacksonville covers.

TEXANS (-12) over Dolphins

The Dolphins looked helpless on Hard Knocks. I really can’t imagine the bland, even-keel, ‘come on guys we have to do a lot better’ speeches Joe Philbin will be firing up the locker room with after this one.

LIONS (-7) over Rams

I do think Jeff Fisher will make the Rams better, but there is a long way between better and good. Sure, Two and a Half Men was ‘better’ with Charlie Sheen but that doesn’t mean it was good. Better than terrible is still really bad.

Falcons (-3) over CHIEFS

The Chiefs best chance to win games will be rushing the ball 68 times. Not a good sign.

PACKERS (-5) over 49ers

The 49ers have to be due for a down year right? No way they can replicate what happened last year.

BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Panthers

Remember at the end of last year how everyone thought Josh Freeman was going to be the next great QB and the Bucs were poised for a run at the NFC South crown? Well, 2012 Panthers fans might want to study up on those 2011 Bucs.

CARDINALS (+2.5) over Seahawks

I realize the Cardinals are awful and have John Skelton at QB, but it’s not like the Seahawks are great. They certainly aren’t a team that should be favored on the road by any means.

Steelers (+1.5) over BRONCOS

If Peyton Manning was just horrendous this year what would that do to his legacy? It’d end all discussions about who was better between him and Brady right? A bad game for the Broncos and we might start hearing about how they should have never let go of the Lord’s Force.

RAVENS (-6) over Bengals

The Bengals seem to alternate between good and terrible. They made the playoffs last year so it’s time for a round of terrible.

Chargers (+1) over RAIDERS

Darren McFadden started to break out last year when the Raiders went away from zone blocking. Of course this being the Raiders this year they are back to a zone blocking scheme. Al Davis is clearly still somehow in charge.