Week 12 NFL Picks

It’s Thanksgiving. The one day of the year where NFL games on Thursday is not completely stupid. Of course because Thursday games are the norm on Thanksgiving, we now get three of them. It probably won’t be long before they shove a fourth Thanksgiving Day game down our throats. Either played in London and starting at 10am or played at midnight in Japan or something stupid like that. I’d wager that right now a team of NFL scientists are researching the Nightmare on Elm Street movies and trying to figure out a way to show games in our dreams, obviously for a fee.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 85-70-5
Lock of the Week: 6-5
Home team in CAPS

Texans (-3) over LIONS
Home teams have more of an advantage on Thursday games than they normally do, but even giving the Lions an extra couple points three is too small of a line. They really haven’t proven to be good at much of anything this year. It even took them until their eighth game to realize, let’s just throw it to Calvin Johnson all the time.

Redskins (+3) over COWBOYS
Both teams have been fairly poor against the spread lately and Redskins-Cowboys games are almost always close so I’ll take the points.

Patriots (-7) over JETS
The Jets played well last week. I’m going to assume that means they’ve used up all of their ‘good’ and will go back to having almost zero offensive contributors.

BENGALS (-8) over Raiders
Remember when Oakland won two straight games and a few people were complimenting how they’d turned things around. Those two games were against the Jaguars and Chiefs, I need say no more.

Steelers (-1) over BROWNS
I know Charlie Batch is starting at quarterback for Pittsburgh, but don’t forget the entire Browns starting lineup is starting for Cleveland.

COLTS (-3) over Bills
So Indy is nowhere near as good as the Patriots, but they still might be the sixth or seventh best team in the AFC. This of course means that either the Colts or Bengals will likely be playing a first round playoff game on the road in New England or Denver. The line will be 10+ and it probably will not be high enough.

Broncos (-10) over CHIEFS
Kansas City has played three games in which it was not completely useless. In their other seven games they have lost by double digits. For the Chiefs to cover a spread the other team has to be looking past them before the game even starts and get caught in a trap.

Titans (-3) over JAGUARS
There is one reason Jacksonville is better than the Chiefs, and that is because they can at least cover the occasional spread. Of course this game is at home, where they lose by an average of 17.8 points per game this season.

BEARS (even) over Vikings
Don’t know if Jay Cutler or Percy Harvin is playing, obviously their status would influence the line and influence my pick, but without knowing for sure the Bears are the pick. Their entire offense was manhandled by the 49ers, but I doubt that will happen two weeks in a row. Plus, the Vikings have struggled on the road and Chicago’s defense didn’t force any turnovers last week, so they are due for about four.

Falcons (-1) over BUCCANEERS
Tampa has been red hot from a betting perspective, but I think it’s time to stop putting money on the Bucs. This game will likely be close, but at only one point you have to just pick the team you think will win the game and that’s Atlanta.

DOLPHINS (+3) over Seahawks
Seattle is a beast at home, but they are nothing on the road.

Ravens (-1) over CHARGERS
Lock of the Week
People have seen San Diego play right? They are not a good football team. Sure, the Ravens have had their struggles on the road this season, but this being a one-point spread makes no sense to me. Philip Rivers is all sorts of geared up to throw an interception at the worst possible time.

SAINTS (+2) over 49ers
Doesn’t really matter who the 49ers put out at quarterback, I don’t think they can keep up with the Saints in New Orleans.

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Rams
Sure, Arizona is probably starting someone named Ryan Lindley, but Beanie Wells is back and even if he does nothing he seemed to have some sort of magical impact on their win-loss record last season and they haven’t won without him this year.

Packers (+2.5) over GIANTS
They Giants must get us all thinking they suck before they can sneak into the playoffs at 9-7 thanks to a bad NFC East and make it at least to the NFC Championship.

Panthers (+2.5) over EAGLES
I had the luxury of watching Philadelphia play last week and let me say, they are like some sort of machine made for sucking right now. No one (except maybe the Chiefs) should be an underdog to the Eagles right now.