No one really likes it when anyone talks about fantasy football too much, but let me just say this – fantasy football is stupid this year. I’m not saying that because I’m bitter and my teams are awful, rather they are varying degrees of mediocre, but that’s the problem. Everyone’s teams are mediocre because so few players consistently perform week in and week out.
Yes, some quarterbacks are having good fantasy seasons, but outside of the QB spot it’s essentially a total crapshoot. Do you know how many WRs and RBs (and TEs) have scored over ten points every week this season? One – Arian Foster. Granted, that’s a special kind of consistency you can’t expect out of many players, but I would have guessed at least 3 or 4 guys were doing it.
More indicative of the inconsistent fantasy performance of most players this year is the play of Jamaal Charles. Charles is the fourth rated RB through six weeks of the season by Yahoo. His fantasy point totals in a standard scoring system with fractional points are 8.7, 2.2, 34.8, 19.1, 16.1, and 4.7. It used to be you could count on probably twelve to fifteen running backs to put up some sort of numbers every week. This year having a top level fantasy back doesn’t even guarantee you a five point performance in any given week.
As a result everyone’s team is the same and it’s not uncommon for a team to score 65 points one week and 115 the next week. The worst part of all of this is that it makes trading impossible. Statistically so many players are the same that you are just rolling the dice every week, so why not stick with the players already on your team? As a result this year is going to see a lot of fifth-seeded playoff teams win their league’s playoffs. Parity is good for the NFL, not so much for fantasy football.
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 44-43-3
Lock of the Week: 4-2
Home team in CAPS
49ERS (-7) over Seahawks
Seattle on the road is not the same team as Seattle at home. I also expect San Francisco to bounce back mightily from their loss. After their only other loss this season they responded with a 34-0 shutout of the Jets in New York.
BILLS (-3.5) over Titans
I didn’t see any of Tennessee’s win over the Steelers last week, but I’m going to assume two things. One, they are still awful; and two, any sort of non-awfulness they had was used up on Thursday.
VIKINGS (-6) over Cardinals
Are the injuries starting to become too much for the Cardinals? Or does Kevin Kolb getting injured just push them back to their original starter in John Skelton. Skelton has been pretty terrible in his two games this year and the Cardinals are also down their top two running backs, so I’m voting injuries are too much and they quickly fade.
COLTS (-2.5) over Browns
Stay away from this game because I do not understand Indianapolis. At home they beat the Vikings, lost to the Jaguars and then beat the Packers. They do not make sense. But, still overall they’ve shown ability at home and I can’t expect Cleveland to win two straight.
Ravens (+6.5) over TEXANS
Ordinarily I’d say the amount of injuries to the Ravens defense would doom them, but the Ravens defense wasn’t very good to begin with, so as long as their offense is intact they should still be one of the AFC’s better teams. I can’t imagine this line would have been as high without the injuries to Lewis and Webb, but they won’t make as much as a difference as it seems like they would.
RAMS (+5.5) over Packers
Rams are undefeated at home and winless on the road, plus they are 5-1 against the spread overall. The Packers are still far too inconsistent to trust; I’d still favor them to win this game, but by less than a FG.
Cowboys (-2) over PANTHERS
I hate to pick the Cowboys as road favorites (or really in any way at any place), but they are probably a bit better than it seems. Their three losses are on the road at Seattle and Baltimore and at home to the Bears; none of those are games many teams in the league would win. The Panthers meanwhile are less terrible than they were early, but still losing their games.
GIANTS (-5.5) over Redskins
When this line opened at seven, the Redskins were the pick, but now that it’s dropped down to five-and-a-half, it seems like the smart money is probably on New York. Sure, the Redskins beat the Giants twice last year, but that really has no bearing on this matchup. What’s important is that the Redskins are the worst team in the league against the pass and the Giants have the league’s third best passing offense.
BUCCANEERS (+3) over Saints
The Bucs beat the Saints at home last year even when New Orleans wasn’t terrible. Tampa proved last week that when playing a terrible defense they can put up points, so no reason they can’t score with the Saints this week.
Jets (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
I really like making fun of the Jets, but 10.5 is a lot of fucking points.
RAIDERS (-4) over Jaguars
The two lowest scoring teams in the league face off! It’s okay though because neither defense is very good either. The end zone will be open; can either team find a way to stumble into it? Find out on CBS!
BENGALS (+1.5) over Steelers
Lock of the Week
Pittsburgh is incredibly banged up (I know, third team I’ve written that about) and they always seem to struggle without Troy Polamalu. They will be missing far more than just him on Sunday. Throw in the fact that they are already 0-3 on the road this year with losses to both the terrible Raiders and terrible Titans, and they should lose this game outright.
BEARS (-6) over Lions
It’s possible that Chicago is the best team in football right now. I can’t imagine how that is possibly true with Jay Cutler as their QB, yet here we are.
49ERS (-7) over Seahawks
Seattle on the road is not the same team as Seattle at home. I also expect San Francisco to bounce back mightily from their loss. After their only other loss this season they responded with a 34-0 shutout of the Jets in New York.
BILLS (-3.5) over Titans
I didn’t see any of Tennessee’s win over the Steelers last week, but I’m going to assume two things. One, they are still awful; and two, any sort of non-awfulness they had was used up on Thursday.
VIKINGS (-6) over Cardinals
Are the injuries starting to become too much for the Cardinals? Or does Kevin Kolb getting injured just push them back to their original starter in John Skelton. Skelton has been pretty terrible in his two games this year and the Cardinals are also down their top two running backs, so I’m voting injuries are too much and they quickly fade.
COLTS (-2.5) over Browns
Stay away from this game because I do not understand Indianapolis. At home they beat the Vikings, lost to the Jaguars and then beat the Packers. They do not make sense. But, still overall they’ve shown ability at home and I can’t expect Cleveland to win two straight.
Ravens (+6.5) over TEXANS
Ordinarily I’d say the amount of injuries to the Ravens defense would doom them, but the Ravens defense wasn’t very good to begin with, so as long as their offense is intact they should still be one of the AFC’s better teams. I can’t imagine this line would have been as high without the injuries to Lewis and Webb, but they won’t make as much as a difference as it seems like they would.
RAMS (+5.5) over Packers
Rams are undefeated at home and winless on the road, plus they are 5-1 against the spread overall. The Packers are still far too inconsistent to trust; I’d still favor them to win this game, but by less than a FG.
Cowboys (-2) over PANTHERS
I hate to pick the Cowboys as road favorites (or really in any way at any place), but they are probably a bit better than it seems. Their three losses are on the road at Seattle and Baltimore and at home to the Bears; none of those are games many teams in the league would win. The Panthers meanwhile are less terrible than they were early, but still losing their games.
GIANTS (-5.5) over Redskins
When this line opened at seven, the Redskins were the pick, but now that it’s dropped down to five-and-a-half, it seems like the smart money is probably on New York. Sure, the Redskins beat the Giants twice last year, but that really has no bearing on this matchup. What’s important is that the Redskins are the worst team in the league against the pass and the Giants have the league’s third best passing offense.
BUCCANEERS (+3) over Saints
The Bucs beat the Saints at home last year even when New Orleans wasn’t terrible. Tampa proved last week that when playing a terrible defense they can put up points, so no reason they can’t score with the Saints this week.
Jets (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
I really like making fun of the Jets, but 10.5 is a lot of fucking points.
RAIDERS (-4) over Jaguars
The two lowest scoring teams in the league face off! It’s okay though because neither defense is very good either. The end zone will be open; can either team find a way to stumble into it? Find out on CBS!
BENGALS (+1.5) over Steelers
Pittsburgh is incredibly banged up (I know, third team I’ve written that about) and they always seem to struggle without Troy Polamalu. They will be missing far more than just him on Sunday. Throw in the fact that they are already 0-3 on the road this year with losses to both the terrible Raiders and terrible Titans, and they should lose this game outright.
BEARS (-6) over Lions
It’s possible that Chicago is the best team in football right now. I can’t imagine how that is possibly true with Jay Cutler as their QB, yet here we are.
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