Philadelphia Eagles
Good: Your offense is among the most dangerous (when healthy) and last week you found ways to score even when the offense couldn't get going. Plus you play in the NFC East, so you don’t even have to be that good to make the playoffs.
Bad: Your entire offensive line is in shambles. That Chip Kelly offense doesn't look quite as strong when the line can’t block.
Dallas Cowboys
Good: I don’t know how you did it, but you are 3-1. The offense has been scoring as you hoped and the defense has been halfway decent.
Bad: It still seems like the defense is standing on a false floor and eventually they are going to fall. They’ve let up the most yards per play of any defense and has yet to face a good offense (and no, the Saints on the road don’t count).
New York Giants
Good: In the last two games you've forced 9 turnovers. You've started 0-2 and looked really bad before, only to come back and win the Super Bowl.
Bad: Those first two games were everything you feared as Eli was throwing picks like last year. No one knows if you can win a game without the opposing QB trying to give you the ball as much as possible.
Washington Redskins
Good: On the one hand, Cousins has only had one bad game and could still make something of his opportunity. Or, you could say after last game that the way Cousins is playing there won’t be any controversy when RG3 comes back.
Bad: Their next two games are vs. the Seahawks and in Arizona. That looks a lot like 1-5. The special teams aren't quite as bad as last year, but are still probably the worst in the league. The defense hasn't done much outside of the Jags game.
Detroit Lions
Good: First place! And that’s without too much impact from Calvin Johnson (341 yards and 2 TDs is still good, but below his expectations), who you assume will get back to producing at video game levels. The defense has really been the star of the team thus far.
Bad: Remember that you were 3-1 last season as well. Your final two games are in Chicago and Green Bay and your coach is still Jim Caldwell, gotta think that ends up biting you at some point. Sounds like a recipe for another late season Detroit collapse.
Green Bay Packers
Good: Three of your games have been on the road and you've won twice with zero rushing game thus far.
Bad: The zero rushing game this far looks like it is a problem. Also, the defense is struggling.
Chicago Bears
Good: It seems like the NFC North is going to be a battle all year and come down to the last few weeks. With healthy receivers you should have as good of a chance as anyone in the bunch.
Bad: Have you watched Devin Hester in Atlanta? Remember all those years you couldn't find out how to get him involved in the offense?
Minnesota Vikings
Good: Teddy Bridgewater looks competent and like he will give you a better chance of winning than Matt Cassel. The running game went off for 241 yards last week without Peterson.
Bad: Remember how you handled the Adrian Peterson situation?
Carolina Panthers
Good: Defense looked really good for two games
Bad: Offense looked pretty bad for four games, defense looked bad for two as well.
Atlanta Falcons
Good: Home games
Bad: Away games
New Orleans Saints
Good: Home games
Bad: Away games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Good: Week 4
Bad: The rest
Arizona Cardinals
Good: The defense has been playing out of its mind. Everyone knows about the secondary, but really it has been the play against the run (helped by being able to leave secondary to operate one-on-one).
Bad: You lead the league in first downs gained by penalty and you’ve played one less game than most of the league. That kind of luck won’t continue.
Seattle Seahawks
Good: You are probably going to win the Super Bowl again.
Bad: The expectations are unrealistically high.
San Francisco 49ers
Good: Take away the dumb penalties and you are at least 3-1, if not 4-0.
Bad: Nothing is exciting about your team anymore. The offense is stale, the defense is slipping and you seem to be incredibly mistake prone.
St. Louis Rams
Good: Expectations were lowered after the Bradford injury.
Bad: After another Bradford injury the team probably isn't ready to give up on him (unless Austin Davis turns out to be the answer).
Last Week: 6-7
Lock of the Week: 4-0
Season: 30-31
Home team in CAPS
Vikings (+8) over PACKERS
This line definitely seems too high, so much so that I’m really tempted to take the Packers, but I’ll trust my instincts (and probably regret it). If Bridgewater doesn’t play, all bets are off though.
Bears (+2.5) over PANTHERS
I have no idea who the Panthers are this season. After the first two games everyone looked stupid for thinking they’d regress. Now everyone looks stupid for doubting themselves.
Browns (+2) over TITANS
Not going to do research on this game to second guess myself. The Browns have looked much better than the Titans in my mind, hanging with solid to decent teams regardless of where they play – it makes sense (in my mind) for them to then beat a bad team.
EAGLES (-7) over Rams
The Eagles get an offensive lineman back on Sunday, which means they should have three offensive lineman starting in their proper positions instead of just one. This should be enough to get their offense back on track.
GIANTS (-4) over Falcons
The Giants don’t deserve to be favored by four, but I will not take Matt Ryan on the road unless the line is insane. At home this season he has six TDs and no interceptions with an adjusted yards per attempt of 12.75. On the road he had four TDs, five interceptions with 4.52 adjusted yards/per attempt. The Giants have won their last two games because the opposing QB gave them the game; it is likely the same will happen again this week.
SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers
I said last week that I would be giving up on the Saints hopes if they didn't look good against the Cowboys. They looked terrible, but by virtue of their division I can’t give up hopes yet. Going 8-0 at home might have them tied with the also 8-0 at home, 0-8 on the road Falcons.
Texans (+6) over COWBOYS
I refuse to believe the Cowboys are good, it is time for them to put up a stinker.
Bills (+7) over LIONS
Neck beard to the rescue!
Ravens (+3.5) over COLTS
If this line were a half point less I’d be betting on the Colts, but as I can’t pick them favored by over a field goal. I think the Ravens are not quite as good as they seem and will end up closer to .500 than they are on pace for; however, the Colts are also rife with flaws and haven’t beaten anyone who isn’t terrible yet.
Steelers (-6) over JAGUARS
Disclaimer: I am 0-4 on Steelers games this season, so take anything I say about them with even less respect than you would give my normal thoughts. Pittsburgh has got to come out and stomp on Jacksonville after losing to the Bucs, right? There is no way they let two of the worst three teams in the league hang with them for back to back weeks.
Cardinals (+7.5) over BRONCOS
Arizona is undefeated and has the best defense in the league to this point. They should not be underdogs by this many points. No respect.
Chiefs (+6) over 49ERS
Alex Smith revenge game?
CHARGERS (-6.5) over Jets
Have the Jets become the most boring team in football? I have no interest in watching them play. They aren't quite bad enough to be comical, they aren't good enough to be intriguing, they don’t have a single must watch player. At least last year they were a bit of a train wreck. They should bring back Tebow for the coverage.
PATRIOTS (+1) over Bengals
Cincy has been unquestionably the best team through the first four weeks of the season. The Patriots are coming of their worst game in over a decade. There is no reason to pick the Patriots other than simple fear of past year Patriots, the line doesn't make sense to anyone who looks at stats or game tape. For all these reasons, you must take New England.
Seahawks (-7) over REDSKINS
The Giants defense took Kirk Cousins apart. He probably has been having nightmares about the Seahawks defense all week.
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