Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Week 13 Picks - Thanksgiving

It’s Thanksgiving week. That means two things. One, no one will read this, and two, I have to write this on Wednesday afternoon, so it will be short and less researched than normal. AND YES, I do research games at least a little bit most weeks – you can see the results it has gotten me.

One Thanksgiving question for you – why do we only eat stuffing and cranberry sauce once a year? They are both delicious and should be entered into the regular rotation of side dishes.

Last Week: 6-8
Lock of the Week: 2-9-1
Season: 75-95-7

Home team in CAPS

Packers (+6.5) over LIONS
Matt Flynn owns Detroit! Despite kind of wanting the Lions to win, I really want Matt Flynn to go off in this game and somehow turn that into another big contract and then be terrible wherever he plays other than with the Packers.

Raiders (+9.5) over COWBOYS
Just seems like too many points for a team with one of the worst defenses in football. But there is also a blowout every Thanksgiving, so I’ll probably be missing at least one of these first two picks.

Steelers (+3) over RAVENS
The last four games between these two teams have all been decided by exactly three points, so either it will be a push, or the Steelers will win by three and thus win the bet.

COLTS (-4) over Titans
No team is more schizophrenic than the Colts. They beat the 49ers in San Fran and Seattle and Denver at home, but they also lost to the Dolphins and Rams at home and did not show up at all in Arizona last week.

Jaguars (+7) over BROWNS
Lock of the Week

Brandon Weeden. That is all.

Buccaneers (+8.5) over PANTHERS
Break up the Bucs! They are on fire!

Patriots (-7.5) over TEXANS
Anyone think it was gonna be the Texans who ended up with the top overall pick in the draft? I’m positive more people had them in the Super Bowl than as the No. 1 pick.

Bears (+1) over VIKINGS
I know the Bears were bad last week, but the Vikings are still much, much worse.

Cardinals (+3) over EAGLES
The Cardinals have won four straight, but still only have two road victories on the year – over the Bucs and Jags. Meanwhile the Eagles have won three straight, but only have one home victory this year, over the Redskins. In conclusion, I don’t trust either team in the location they are playing, so I’m taking the points.

JETS (-1.5) over Dolphins
New York finally lost back-to-back games, but I expect them to bounce back and return to .500 here.

Broncos (-5.5) over CHIEFS
Kansas City free fall alert (but not really, they play the Redskins next week).

BILLS (-3) over Falcons
I finally pick against the Falcons last week and they cover the spread. Fuck those guys.

Rams (+8) over 49ERS
The 49ers didn’t do anything special on Monday, in fact I’m picking against them here just on the basis of how terrible the Redskins were.

Bengals (even) over CHARGERS
It seems like the Chargers should be favored, given the Bengals struggles on the road, but they are not, so I’m going to assume Vegas is smarter than me.

Giants (-1.5) over REDSKINS
On the plus side, the chances of the Giants making the Super Bowl are now severely diminished.

SEAHAWKS (-5.5) over Saints
Even though the Seahawks haven’t been dominating at home with quite the same veracity that I was expecting them to after their early season performance, I still think they are the pick. By the way, whoever wins this game will likely get home field and thus be heavy favorites to make the Super Bowl from the NFC.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Week 12 - Someone Terrible Will Make the Playoffs

A terrible team will make the NFL playoffs. That shouldn’t really be a surprise, there is a double-digit underdog in the first round of the playoffs with relative frequency. This year, that team will be the second AFC wild card. For perspective on how bad the second AFC wild card will be, the Jacksonville Jaguars are currently only four games out of that playoff spot.

If the playoffs started today (dumb statement that gets used far too often, because clearly the playoffs do not start today, but I’m using it all the same) the Jets would travel to New England for a first round game. Granted, the Jets only lost by three when they played the Pats on the road earlier this season and actually defeated them at home, so maybe that wouldn’t be such a terrible game.

Also in the hunt: Dolphins (5-5), Steelers (4-6), Ravens (4-6), Browns (4-6), Titans (4-6), Chargers (4-6), and Raiders (4-6). That is eight teams all within one game of one another for one playoff spot.

Final record predictions: Jets (8-8), Dolphins (7-9), Steelers (7-9), Ravens (7-9 – and they’ll look like they’ve turned a corner at 7-6 before losing three straight to end the season), Titans (7-9), Browns (6-10), Raiders (6-10), Chargers (6-10).

While the AFC is stuck with the suck off for its sixth and final spot, the NFC actually has some exciting playoff races. Unfortunately for them, there will almost assuredly be a 10-6 team that misses the playoffs.

Among the tight NFC playoff races is the NFC East, but let’s call that over because I think we all know the Giants will go 10-6 and make it to the Super Bowl in New York. It is going to happen.

Last week: 5-7-3
Lock of the Week: 2-8-1
Season: 69-87-7

Home team in CAPS

Saints (-9.5) over FALCONS
I absolutely think this line is too high, but I can’t in good conscious pick the Falcons again after so many weeks in a row of them burning me.

LIONS (-9) over Buccaneers
How many games in a row would Greg Schiano need to win for his job to be safe? I think even if the Bucs finished the season on an eight game winning streak, he still has a good chance of being fired.

Jaguars (+10) over TEXANS
Last week I said the Texans shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown over anyone. Then they go out and lose by five to Matt McGloin and the Raiders, yet somehow they are favored by 10 points this week. Fun fact about the Texans, they have allowed the fewest yards of any defense in the NFL, but somehow have also allowed the fifth most points.

Vikings (+4.5) over PACKERS
Finally we will get the answer to the age old question – who is a better quarterback Christian Ponder or Scott Tolzien. The sad news for the Vikings is that they are playing Ponder by choice, while the Packers are playing Tolzien out of necessity.

CHIEFS (-5) over Chargers
Lock of the Week
San Diego is terrible on the road and the Chiefs are still a good team. I imagine after getting shown up last week, the Chiefs defensive line will absolutely wreck shit against Rivers and the Chargers.

Panthers (-4.5) over DOLPHINS
I now believe in the Panthers, so apologies Panthers for the run of losses you are about to go on because I believed in you.

BROWNS (-2) over Steelers
I will ride the home team in AFC North matchups until it does not work.

Bears (+1) over RAMS
The Bears are just an all-around better team with a much better offense than the Rams.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Jets
I’m at odds because this is the Jets turn to win a game, but they only have one win on the road this season and for the most part have been terrible away from New York. I’ll go against the somewhat meaningless trend and pay attention to the fact that seems slightly more football related.

RAIDERS (even) over Titans
There are playoff implications in a game between Matt McGloin and Ryan Fitzpatrick. What the hell is wrong with the AFC?

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Colts
I want nothing to do with putting real money on this game.

GIANTS (-2.5) over Cowboys
New York in the New York Super Bowl! Since I’ve resigned myself to the fact that this travesty will happen, I have two requests. Please, please don’t have the Super Bowl be Giants vs. Jets or Giants vs. Patriots. I can’t handle it.

PATRIOTS (+2.5) over Broncos
I will take Tom Brady and points at home every single time. Do you know the last time the Patriots were home underdogs? November 7, 2005 – against? Yep, Peyton Manning.

49ers (-5.5) over REDSKINS
I learned my lesson about picking the Redskins.

Friday, November 15, 2013

Week 11 Picks - Post Thursday

A push to start the week. That’s the kind of football betting that can get me on the right track. I just need a bunch more games that are impossible to pick incorrectly.

Last week: 7-6-1
This week (thus far): 0-0-1
Lock of the week: 2-8
Season: 64-80-4

Home team in CAPS

Falcons (-1.5) over BUCCANEERS
I was sure I’d pick against the Falcons this week. They have been terrible, but to pick against them would mean that I think the Bucs can win two games in a row, and that seems like a near impossibility.

BILLS (-1) over Jets
The Jets won their last game, so clearly they will lose their next game.

Lions (-2.5) over STEELERS
I don’t believe the Steelers can hang with a good offense.

Redskins (+4.5) over EAGLES
Since my plan of picking my lock of the week against the Redskins to ensure a Washington victory stopped working, I guess it is okay for me to pick the Redskins again. The Eagles have been terrible at home, failing to win or cover in Philadelphia this season.

BEARS (-3) over Ravens
I love that all Bears fans hate Jay Cutler and are very happy that Josh McCown is back at quarterback. Probably not a good sign for their playoff hopes when the town thinks the team has a better chance to win with a lifetime 14-20 QB.

BENGALS (-6) over Browns
Home field rules the AFC North.

Raiders (+7) over TEXANS
The Texans shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown over anyone this season. That is ridiculous.

JAGUARS (+7.5) over Cardinals
Arizona is terrible on the road. Yes, I realize Jacksonville is terrible everywhere, but I think this line is about a half point too high.

Chargers (-1.5) over DOLPHINS
I think this whole saga in Miami has really affected the Dolphins quality of play. Most importantly they’ve lost two offensive line starters, but the distraction also seems like it is just too much for them.

SEAHAWKS (-12) over Vikings
Christian Ponder playing in Seattle? Nothing else needs to be said.

SAINTS (-3) over 49ers
Lock of the Week

The Saints are really, really good in New Orleans and the 49ers just proved last week that they might be a bit of a fraud. In the Superdome the Saints have won by 7, 24, 21, 18, and 32. The 49ers might be their toughest competition yet, but there is no way the Saints don’t win this game by at least a touchdown.

GIANTS (-4.5) over Packers
I swear to God, if the Giants end up in the Super Bowl…

Chiefs (+8) over BRONCOS
Despite being 9-0, no one really respects the Chiefs that much. I will give them at least a bit of respect and think they can keep this game close.

Patriots (+2.5) over PANTHERS
Still not sure I’ve bought into the Panthers just yet. They need one more win for me to believe.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Week 11 Thursday Night Special

No time for a real post. But I want to note I had a winning week!

Last week: 7-6-1
Lock of the week: 2-8
Season: 64-80-3

Home team in CAPS

Colts (-3) over TITANS

The Colts are nearly impossible to figure out and have shown they are 100% capable of getting beaten on the road by anyone. But they've also looked like one of the top 5 teams in the league at times. So I'll just bet against Ryan Fitzpatrick for now.  See you tomorrow with the rest of the picks.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Week 10 Picks and Far Too Much Writing about the Dolphins Situation

Last week I write about the struggles of the NFC East and they go out and win all of their games on Sunday. Sure, they were all playing against average or below average opponents, but it still makes me think I have a power to make the opposite of whatever I say happen.

Last Week: 5-8
Guaranteed Loss of the Week (formerly Lock of the Week): 1-8
Season: 57-74-2

Home team in CAPS

VIKINGS (+2.5) over Redskins
Lock of the Week


The Redskins specialize in losing to bad teams on the road following wins. It is one of their best tricks, to find a way to get your hopes up and then squash them. Also, fun meaningless fact, teams that play on Thursday road games following an overtime game are 1-11 all time.

Jaguars (+12) over TITANS

All the statistics I can find make me think I should pick the Titans, but for some reason I think the Jags will hang around in this one. Probably because I, and 80% of the world, picked the Titans in survivor.

Eagles (+1) over PACKERS

Philly really lucked out here getting to play against Seneca Wallace. If they were in Philly they’d probably still lose, but somehow they are one of the best road teams in the league.

Bills (+3) over STEELERS
E.J. Manuel is back! Excitement!

GIANTS (-7) over Raiders
The Raiders might find a way to go 0-4 against the NFC East, a truly difficult task.

COLTS (-9.5) over Rams
The Rams have been surprisingly competent with Kellen Clemens (which has more to do with their defense than offense) and the Colts seem to like playing close games. But still picking Indy.

FALCONS (+6) over Seahawks
I can’t get away from picking Atlanta and I don’t know why. They have been terrible, but I can’t quit them.

RAVENS (+1.5) over Bengals
In games between two AFC North teams, the home team is 5-0 this season.

BEARS (+2.5) over Lions
The Bears tend to have more luck slowing down Calvin Johnson than most teams, holding him under 100 yards for four straight games and seven of their last eight.

49ERS (-6) over Panthers
Two of the hottest teams in the league, but both have been feasting on subpar teams. Of their collective nine wins in a row, exactly zero of them have come against teams with a winning record.

CARDINALS (-3) over Texans
We all believe the Cardinals are not a good team correct? Well look at their home games this season – wins over the Lions, Panthers and Falcons, with their only loss coming against the Seahawks.

CHARGERS (+7) over Broncos
San Diego is another team much better at home than on the road this season. I don’t think they’ll beat the Broncos, but it would not surprise me to see them keep things close as the Broncos pass defense has not been stellar this year.

SAINTS (-6.5) over Cowboys
New Orleans is nearly unstoppable at home and should bounce back from their loss with a very strong game.

BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Dolphins
I was ready to write a short paragraph about how people can’t really be that surprised by the things Richie Incognito said and did to Jonathan Martin. The idea being, look at Incognito, the way he carries himself and even just the way he looks – he is clearly a dick. And while I still hold a lot of that to be true, it got me to thinking about bullying and competitive sports. Also, it is important to state that we do not know all the facts and should probably stop jumping to conclusions for a while. (Feel free to stop reading at any time after this, I'm not really sure my thoughts go anywhere)

First off, everyone else on the Dolphins seems to love Incognito. I’m not saying that makes anything he did any better, but it is interesting to see teammates rushing to his support rather than supporting Martin.

I’m positive that Incognito is fiercely loyal and defensive of his teammates. If someone on another team messed with Martin on the field, I have no doubt Incognito would have been the first guy in the opponents face, and that earns you respect with your peers. Again, that doesn’t make what he said or did any better, but it’s worth remembering when thinking about what type of guy he is.

Now, I too would defend my teammates against any opponent, I think that is more common than it is uncommon. But, that same confrontational attitude carries over to the locker room in pro sports. I don’t fully understand professional sports culture. Never will. I played and coached club sports in college and that’s about as competitive as I’ve ever gotten in my sporting life.

Still, it is clear to me there is a wide range of methods in how to approach and motivate a team or teammate. Different people respond to different types of motivation. Some players want to be yelled at all the time, broken down, forced to better themselves to gain approval. Others do not have the mindset for that type of challenge and need a softer touch with constant positive reinforcement. Neither way is wrong, but you need to realize which people operate in which way.

It seems pro sports always trends toward the machismo, prove your manhood, breed strength through confrontation mindset. This macho culture leads to bullying, players treating teammates like dicks either to “toughen them up” or so they can “earn” their spot on the team and be welcomed to the club. I’ve made fun of teammates before, thinking in my head that it is coming from a good place, but there is a level of harassment that you don’t cross.

Obviously players and the coaches who asked Incognito to “toughen up” Martin wanted different results. They wanted Martin to fight back, to show a “nasty” side. Some may think Incognito ultimately went too far, but it seems few are of that opinion. It appears clear now, Martin isn’t that type of guy.

Maybe that attitude is still needed to succeed in such a competitive environment, but I doubt it. You can and I believe should, admonish players for mistakes. But it seems more and more that hazing and bullying doesn’t do anything to make you a stronger team.

I’ve bullied people before, been bullied, and am still friends with people who are currently bullies. Some bully for their own amusement, some use it as a defense mechanism about their own insecurities, and others believe they are trying to accomplish a good result – an ends justify the means approach. What is important is to see how someone reacts to bullying and then responding accordingly.

Real bullies, like it would seem Incognito is, take it to another level when their target can’t handle it well. And that is the problem most outsiders have with this situation. It seems the culture of pro sports, and the idea behind this incident, was to push Martin until he snapped, hoping he would snap with aggression. But not everyone is wired to punch their problems in the face. Martin snapped by leaving the team and filing a complaint. No one should hold him in disregard because of that fact.

At the same time I don’t know how much blame to assign to Incognito, how much to assign to the Dolphins coaches and others players, and how much to assign to the culture of professional sports, because it is a culture I have never experienced and don’t understand. Still, it seems to me like this is a message that maybe that culture could use a little change.