Week 11: Already Behind

Not the best start to my picks last night, but still got room to improve. Not a lot of time this week, so write ups will likely be quick.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 6-7
Lock of the Week: 7-3
Season: 70-77-1

Home team in CAPS

Texans (+3) over BROWNS

Everything says to pick Cleveland here, except for the fact that they are Cleveland and couldn’t possibly hold onto first place in their division. They’ll follow up arguably their best game of the season with something that will look close to their worst. Yes, betting against a QB getting his first start ever in Ryan Mallet is super tempting, but it’s not like Mallet will be a major downgrade from Fitzpatrick.

Vikings (+3) over BEARS

Chicago hasn’t covered as a favorite or at home yet this season. Shockingly, through 9 games they have played six on the road, so if they actually were good at home they’d be poised for a nice late season run.

PACKERS (-6) over EAGLES

I don’t yet believe that Mark Sanchez on the road can keep up with Aaron Rodgers at home.

CHIEFS (-2) over Seahawks

Kansas City has come a long way from the team that got blown out by the Titans opening week. This is the first time the Seahawks have been underdogs this season and they are coming off their best game since their opener. If Seattle wins this game, they are back to form and the Super Bowl favorites, but not ready to pick them yet.

PANTHERS (-1) over Falcons
Lock of the Week

I don’t see any possible way the Falcons can win back-to-back road games. I get that Carolina is bad, but Atlanta is still just as bad. And my God, this entire division is a sham.

Bengals (+7) over SAINTS

Cincinnati has been rolled their last two games on the road and looked terrible last week against the Browns. Meanwhile, the Saints are still pretty solid at home BUT they aren’t great and I think they are overvalued here.

Buccaneers (+7) over REDSKINS

I fully believe the Redskins will win this game, but it will come down to the wire. I can’t take them with seven points.

Broncos (-9.5) over RAMS

Beating up on mediocre and bad teams is what Peyton Manning and the Broncos do.

49ers (-4) over GIANTS

I think San Francisco is just good enough to hang around until the end of the season. They aren’t a good team, but the Giants aren’t the ones to take advantage of that.

RAIDERS (+10) over Chargers

I am 100% off the Chargers bandwagon. The Raiders nearly won their earlier meeting and should keep this one close.

CARDINALS (-1.5) over Lions

I’m not sure how much it matters who the Cardinals quarterback is. Losing Palmer may knock them down a peg, but they are still better than most teams.

COLTS (-3) over Patriots

The Pats have been great lately, but they’ve also played their last three games at home. They aren’t the same team on the road and Luck will rise to the challenge of a shootout vs. Brady.

Steelers (-6) over TITANS

As much as I can’t figure out the Steelers at all, I do believe the Titans are terrible. Tennessee hasn’t covered a spread at home yet and Roethlisberger tends to play well in night games, Pitt will bounce back and then suck in a game in the near future.