Week 10: No Subtitles?

Maybe it is the way the year is going, maybe it is how much less football I’ve watched this year, or maybe this just the way the NFL always is now, but I don’t feel as if I have any handle on which teams are really good this year. Teams can look terrible or great any given week and having expectations for a team might be the most dangerous gambling mistake you can make.

Nearly every team has won a game by double digits and lost a game by double digits. I’ll give you a complete list of teams that have not – Jets (legitimately bad), Raiders (legitimately bad), Buccaneers (legitimately bad), Rams (their three wins are by a total of seven points), Eagles (always in it until the end), and Seahawks (possibly a few tweaks away from returning to form). The other 26 teams have all been soundly beaten at least once and beaten a team soundly at least once, even the Jags have a double-digit win.

Nothing makes less sense than the AFC North, every team is above .500 and at one point each of the four teams has looked like they have no business being in the playoff conversation. With the exception of Cleveland, they have each looked like they are clearly the best team in the division as well.

So, who the fuck knows what’s going on? Let’s put some money on games anyways.

Last week: 8-5
Lock of the Week: 6-3
Season: 64-68-1
Home team in CAPS

Browns (+6) over BENGALS

After a three game stretch against the worst three teams in the league, the Browns came away with a minus three point differential. As I mentioned, nothing in the AFC North makes sense. I won’t be betting on any of their divisional games from here on out, but forced to pick I say this is still too many points despite the Browns recent struggles.

Jaguars (+6.5) over Cowboys (game in London)

Tony Romo really shouldn’t play (but he might) and I’ll take points against Brandon Weeden all day, I don’t care what continent we’re on.

Dolphins (+3) over LIONS

Detroit cost me money by winning but not covering in each of their last two games. That is some annoying shit Detroit. This game should be telling for the Lions, who look to have Calvin Johnson back and is important for both teams as there isn’t a lot of room for error in the playoff race.

BILLS (+2) over Chiefs

I think the Chiefs are probably the better team, but this game seems like a pick ‘em in Buffalo to me. I’ll take the points if they are being given out.

49ers (+4.5) over SAINTS

My faith in the Saints has not been restored. They have covered in three straight and I’ve stupidly bet against them each time, but as soon as I start picking them they’ll look terrible. I’ve lost more bets involving the Saints than any other team. You aren’t fooling me into gambling on you yet New Orleans! In fact, I don’t care how the line swings, I will not bet on this game.

Titans (+9.5) over RAVENS

Too many points for a team with back-to-back losses. Can’t do it.

Steelers (-5) over JETS

This line has moved 3.5 points already since opening. I can’t wrap my head around why it opened so low. It will probably keep travelling up until it gets close to seven. At what point is it too high? I don’t know. Seems like savvy gamblers will make good money middling this game.

BUCCANEERS (+1.5) over Falcons

When most people see this game they probably immediately think of the drubbing the Falcons put on the Bucs earlier this year. In reality both teams are terrible and the home team getting points has to be the play. Curiously, the Falcons are 0-4 against the spread as the road team and the Bucs are 0-4 against the spread as the home team. Something’s gotta give!

RAIDERS (+11.5) over Broncos

Very real chance Denver wins by 40 because Peyton wants to score as many points as possible after getting beat by the Pats again, but the Raiders have covered every game they have been given seven or more points, so I’ll stick with them.

CARDINALS (-7) over Rams

I don’t believe the Rams are capable of putting together back-to-back good games.

Giants (+9) over SEAHAWKS

The last time either of these teams covered was week 5. Gross.

PACKERS (-7) over Bears
Lock of the Week

Chicago is terrible right? It seems like they are terrible.

EAGLES (-6) over Panthers

I have no idea how to factor in the Sanchize, but I feel as if the Eagles are just a much better team than Carolina. That should be enough.