Week 13: Watchable Thursday Football

The only day of the year that Thursday football is not a giant pain in the ass!

Last week: 7-7
Lock of the week: 7-5
Season: 86-88-1

Home team in CAPS

LIONS (-7) over Bears

I know the Lions offense had kind of sputtered out, but I don’t care. Jay Cutler playing in a short week seems like a great opportunity for 4 turnovers. The Lions defense will tie the Bears offense and the Lions offense will add another 14.

Eagles (+3) over COWBOYS

I’m sticking to my prediction that the Cowboys will fall apart in the second half of the season. If they win this game and improve to 9-3, it would be really hard for them to fall apart (but all the more spectacular when they do). Still, the Cowboys defense seems like it could fall apart at any time and the Eagles are a great candidate to expose them.

Seahawks (+1) over 49ERS

I don’t like betting on the Seahawks on the road, they’ve been pretty terrible outside of Seattle this year, but the 49ers have been disappointing at home. Ultimately this game has a lot of playoff implications and Seattle is still the better team, so they will prevail.

COLTS (-9.5) over Redskins

It appears the RG3 era is over in Washington as Colt McCoy is starting this game. Not shockingly, Washington is home to the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL and perhaps all of sports right now. I still think RG3 could be good, but his time in D.C. is clearly over. I even think Cousins is still worth a look, the guy has only started 8 games, but Gruden has turned to McCoy because he gives him the best chance to win right now (which is sad), and he probably feels like he needs to win to save his job. The Redskins will likely draft Winston this spring and then repeat this entire process. #HTTR:(

Titans (+6.5) over TEXANS

Who is starting at quarterback for Houston? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Tom Savage? I’ll take points in a matchup of crappy QBs.

Browns (+2.5) over BILLS

At some point the Browns will lose a game to blow their shot at the playoffs, but I think that won’t come until they really look like they have a strong chance to make it.

RAVENS (-5.5) over Chargers

In fact, maybe all of the AFC North teams will win 10 games. That’d be fun.

JAGUARS (+2.5) over Giants

I’m not sure why I’m betting on the Jaguars, so I’m not going to second guess myself by looking up “stats” or “thinking about it.”

Raiders (+7) over RAMS

Oakland covers TD and bigger spreads. Oakland is 4-1 against the spread on the road. Oakland is not as bad as they seem.

Bengals (-4) over BUCCANEERS

There is too much of the public on the Bengals, and that frightens me, BUT Tampa hasn’t won a game or covered a spread at home and the AFC North is 300 times better than the NFC South.

STEELERS (-4) over Saints

I’ll keep going with the AFC North and against the Saints, but I hate betting on the Steelers. You never have any idea what kind of team is going to show up.

VIKINGS (-3) over Panthers

I hope the NFC South teams lose every game that is not against one another so that a playoff team can be 6-10.

Cardinals (-2.5) over FALCONS
Lock of the Week

It is clear that I will pick against the NFC South when presented with a reasonable opportunity. This opportunity seems the most reasonable of them all. The Cardinals have the best secondary in the league and should force Atlanta to run the ball, which they cannot do.

Patriots (+3) over PACKERS

I know the Packers have been good, but there is just no way to pick against New England right now.

CHIEFS (+1.5) over Broncos

I’ll take Kansas City with points at home. Andy Reid gave us his Andy Reid game last week, so I think they can avoid implosion and find a way to win.

Dolphins (-6) over JETS

The Jets appear to have given up on the season. It is not a smart idea to bet on teams that have given up.

Week 12: Real Jobs Cut Into Crappy Blogs

It's Friday morning and I have not looked at lines or picked any games yet. That means I did not pick last night's game (my guess is I'd have picked the Raiders as I've picked them every time they've been a big underdog, but I can't award myself a point for that). It also means I'm not going to do anything this week but post my picks without commentary. Really this is just for record keeping, next week I full have a full post on Wednesday.

Last week: 9-5
Lock of the Week: 7-4
Season: 79-82-1

Home team in CAPS

Browns (+3) over FALCONS

EAGLES (-11) over Titans

PATRIOTS (-7) over Lions

Packers (-9.5) over VIKINGS

Jaguars (+14) over COLTS

TEXANS (-2) over Bengals

Buccaneers (+6) over BEARS

LOCK OF THE WEEK

SEAHAWKS (-7) over Cardinals

CHARGERS (-4.5) over Rams

Dolphins (+7) over BRONCOS

49ERS (-9) over Redskins

GIANTS (+3.5) over Cowboys

Ravens (+3.5) over SAINTS

Jets (+2) over BUFFALO (in Detroit)

This game is in Detroit because Buffalo still needs to remove 220,000 TONS OF SNOW from Ralph Wilson Stadium. This is what it looked like outside the stadium on Thursday.

Week 11: Already Behind

Not the best start to my picks last night, but still got room to improve. Not a lot of time this week, so write ups will likely be quick.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 6-7
Lock of the Week: 7-3
Season: 70-77-1

Home team in CAPS

Texans (+3) over BROWNS

Everything says to pick Cleveland here, except for the fact that they are Cleveland and couldn’t possibly hold onto first place in their division. They’ll follow up arguably their best game of the season with something that will look close to their worst. Yes, betting against a QB getting his first start ever in Ryan Mallet is super tempting, but it’s not like Mallet will be a major downgrade from Fitzpatrick.

Vikings (+3) over BEARS

Chicago hasn’t covered as a favorite or at home yet this season. Shockingly, through 9 games they have played six on the road, so if they actually were good at home they’d be poised for a nice late season run.

PACKERS (-6) over EAGLES

I don’t yet believe that Mark Sanchez on the road can keep up with Aaron Rodgers at home.

CHIEFS (-2) over Seahawks

Kansas City has come a long way from the team that got blown out by the Titans opening week. This is the first time the Seahawks have been underdogs this season and they are coming off their best game since their opener. If Seattle wins this game, they are back to form and the Super Bowl favorites, but not ready to pick them yet.

PANTHERS (-1) over Falcons
Lock of the Week

I don’t see any possible way the Falcons can win back-to-back road games. I get that Carolina is bad, but Atlanta is still just as bad. And my God, this entire division is a sham.

Bengals (+7) over SAINTS

Cincinnati has been rolled their last two games on the road and looked terrible last week against the Browns. Meanwhile, the Saints are still pretty solid at home BUT they aren’t great and I think they are overvalued here.

Buccaneers (+7) over REDSKINS

I fully believe the Redskins will win this game, but it will come down to the wire. I can’t take them with seven points.

Broncos (-9.5) over RAMS

Beating up on mediocre and bad teams is what Peyton Manning and the Broncos do.

49ers (-4) over GIANTS

I think San Francisco is just good enough to hang around until the end of the season. They aren’t a good team, but the Giants aren’t the ones to take advantage of that.

RAIDERS (+10) over Chargers

I am 100% off the Chargers bandwagon. The Raiders nearly won their earlier meeting and should keep this one close.

CARDINALS (-1.5) over Lions

I’m not sure how much it matters who the Cardinals quarterback is. Losing Palmer may knock them down a peg, but they are still better than most teams.

COLTS (-3) over Patriots

The Pats have been great lately, but they’ve also played their last three games at home. They aren’t the same team on the road and Luck will rise to the challenge of a shootout vs. Brady.

Steelers (-6) over TITANS

As much as I can’t figure out the Steelers at all, I do believe the Titans are terrible. Tennessee hasn’t covered a spread at home yet and Roethlisberger tends to play well in night games, Pitt will bounce back and then suck in a game in the near future.

Week 11: Thursday Only

Haven't had time to get to all my picks yet, but here's what I got for tonight.

Last Week: 6-7
Lock of the Week: 7-3
Season: 70-76-1

Home team in CAPS

Bills (+4.5) over DOLPHINS

This is essentially an elimination game for both teams, if you fall to 5-5 in the AFC, you will likely have to win out to make it to the playoffs and neither of these teams are going on a six game winning streak. I don’t know who will win, I think Miami is a better team, but both have actually both been better against the spread when on the road.

Week 10: No Subtitles?

Maybe it is the way the year is going, maybe it is how much less football I’ve watched this year, or maybe this just the way the NFL always is now, but I don’t feel as if I have any handle on which teams are really good this year. Teams can look terrible or great any given week and having expectations for a team might be the most dangerous gambling mistake you can make.

Nearly every team has won a game by double digits and lost a game by double digits. I’ll give you a complete list of teams that have not – Jets (legitimately bad), Raiders (legitimately bad), Buccaneers (legitimately bad), Rams (their three wins are by a total of seven points), Eagles (always in it until the end), and Seahawks (possibly a few tweaks away from returning to form). The other 26 teams have all been soundly beaten at least once and beaten a team soundly at least once, even the Jags have a double-digit win.

Nothing makes less sense than the AFC North, every team is above .500 and at one point each of the four teams has looked like they have no business being in the playoff conversation. With the exception of Cleveland, they have each looked like they are clearly the best team in the division as well.

So, who the fuck knows what’s going on? Let’s put some money on games anyways.

Last week: 8-5
Lock of the Week: 6-3
Season: 64-68-1
Home team in CAPS

Browns (+6) over BENGALS

After a three game stretch against the worst three teams in the league, the Browns came away with a minus three point differential. As I mentioned, nothing in the AFC North makes sense. I won’t be betting on any of their divisional games from here on out, but forced to pick I say this is still too many points despite the Browns recent struggles.

Jaguars (+6.5) over Cowboys (game in London)

Tony Romo really shouldn’t play (but he might) and I’ll take points against Brandon Weeden all day, I don’t care what continent we’re on.

Dolphins (+3) over LIONS

Detroit cost me money by winning but not covering in each of their last two games. That is some annoying shit Detroit. This game should be telling for the Lions, who look to have Calvin Johnson back and is important for both teams as there isn’t a lot of room for error in the playoff race.

BILLS (+2) over Chiefs

I think the Chiefs are probably the better team, but this game seems like a pick ‘em in Buffalo to me. I’ll take the points if they are being given out.

49ers (+4.5) over SAINTS

My faith in the Saints has not been restored. They have covered in three straight and I’ve stupidly bet against them each time, but as soon as I start picking them they’ll look terrible. I’ve lost more bets involving the Saints than any other team. You aren’t fooling me into gambling on you yet New Orleans! In fact, I don’t care how the line swings, I will not bet on this game.

Titans (+9.5) over RAVENS

Too many points for a team with back-to-back losses. Can’t do it.

Steelers (-5) over JETS

This line has moved 3.5 points already since opening. I can’t wrap my head around why it opened so low. It will probably keep travelling up until it gets close to seven. At what point is it too high? I don’t know. Seems like savvy gamblers will make good money middling this game.

BUCCANEERS (+1.5) over Falcons

When most people see this game they probably immediately think of the drubbing the Falcons put on the Bucs earlier this year. In reality both teams are terrible and the home team getting points has to be the play. Curiously, the Falcons are 0-4 against the spread as the road team and the Bucs are 0-4 against the spread as the home team. Something’s gotta give!

RAIDERS (+11.5) over Broncos

Very real chance Denver wins by 40 because Peyton wants to score as many points as possible after getting beat by the Pats again, but the Raiders have covered every game they have been given seven or more points, so I’ll stick with them.

CARDINALS (-7) over Rams

I don’t believe the Rams are capable of putting together back-to-back good games.

Giants (+9) over SEAHAWKS

The last time either of these teams covered was week 5. Gross.

PACKERS (-7) over Bears
Lock of the Week

Chicago is terrible right? It seems like they are terrible.

EAGLES (-6) over Panthers

I have no idea how to factor in the Sanchize, but I feel as if the Eagles are just a much better team than Carolina. That should be enough.