Week 7: Holt Shit, It's Already Week 7

At this point in the season enough time has gone by (It is already week 7! What happened?) that Vegas knows the teams and the betting trends well. If a line looks weird, it probably means you should bet the opposite of what you think. But I also probably shouldn't drink as much as I do. Sometimes good ideas aren't meant to be followed.

Last Week: 6-8-1
Lock of the Week: 6-0
Season: 45-45-1

Home team in CAPS

Jets (+9.5) over PATRIOTS

I might be dooming myself by picking a bad team on the road in a Thursday game, but the Jets tend to play the Pats close more often than not and I’m still not sold on any level of consistency from New England.

UPDATE: I forgot two games
Panthers (+7) over PACKERS

Carolina just tied Cincinnati in Cincy as seven point underdogs. I think the Bengals are probably better than the Packers, so Carolina seems like a really smart pick here. Does that mean it's wrong? Maybe. I thought they were a smart pick when they got destroyed by Pittsburgh too, but I'm going with it.

Seahawks (+6.5) over RAMS

No way Seattle doesn't bounce back and murder the Rams.

Bengals (+3) over COLTS

The Bengals will right the ship. They played too good for the first few weeks and below what they are capable of recently, they are a much more complete team than Indy, and should reestablish that fact on Sunday.

Titans (+5.5) over REDSKINS

This line is just a smidgen too big. Washington is likely a better team than Tennessee, but don’t deserve to be favored by any more than four points. (Last time I said Washington was favored by more points than they deserved they won by about a billion).

BEARS (-3) over Dolphins

Chicago has been bad at home. If they hope to contend for a playoff spot they need to win games like this.

Browns (-5.5) over JAGUARS

I really wanted to bet on Cleveland when this line opened at three, but I didn't and it has continued to rise. I’ll still pick the Browns, but I’m considerably less confident than I was 2.5 points ago.

RAVENS (-7) over Falcons

For some reason the site I use to get the gambling lines always lists BAL-RB-Ray Rice-OUT under all Ravens games. He is no longer on the team any more, why do they still have this alert? Hey, also, NYJ-QB-Joe Namath-OUT.

BILLS (-5.5) over Vikings

The Vikings have not played a single game that didn't result in a double-digit victory or loss this season. Makes for some boring football up north.

LIONS (-3) over Saints

Unless they rattle off four or five straight covers, I’m not picking the Saints again this season. I’m disgusted with them.

CHARGERS (-4) over Chiefs

Lock of the Week

This line has been trending towards Kansas City and they still have more than half the action. What am I missing? Is this because the Chargers barely beat Oakland last week? Yes, the Chiefs have been silently pretty good since looking like one of the worst teams in the league in Week 1, but the Chargers have been not silently quite good (although their win over the Seahawks is not quite as amazing as it looked at the time after Seattle lost to Dallas in Seattle

Giants (+6.5) over COWBOYS

I’m starting to get slightly worried that the bottom isn't going to drop out on this Cowboys team. I still think it will, but I’m much less confident than I was a week ago.

Cardinals (-3.5) over RAIDERS

I have developed a plan for betting on the Raiders the rest of the season. Large spreads, pick the Raiders. Small spreads, pick against the Raiders. They seem to play games closer than expected, but still always lose.

BRONCOS (-6.5) over 49ers

San Francisco is the most confusing team in the league to me at the moment. They looked ready to regress to average and don’t seem to pass the eye test, but they do seem to win games and are in the playoff picture.

Texans (+3.5) over STEELERS

The Steelers are also confusing. They really seem terrible, but it would not shock me if they came out and won this game by 20 points either, just to keep people unsure.