Week 9: Back Where I Belong

Now we are back in Gamblor’s comfort zone. For a while there I was flirting with a winning record, but after three straight losing weeks I’m solidly below average again – gotta keep those expectations low. In addition to my poor performance in the blog, I’ve lost money on nine of my last ten bets with the only win being a 2nd half line. This means one of three things, either I’m due or I’m terrible OR, most likely, the NFL is impossible to predict.

When unsure this week, I’m going against whatever the consensus pick is, which probably means lots of underdogs for this guy.

Last Week: 6-8
Lock of the week: 6-2
Season: 56-63-1

Home team in CAPS

PANTHERS (+3) over Saints
Lock of the Week

The Saints are still terrible on the road, no matter how many points they put up against the Packers at home last week. The sad thing is that this game is somehow for first place in the NFC South and that one of these two teams will host a playoff game.

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Chargers

Miami is one of those teams that might be better on the road at home, but I’ll still take them here. San Diego hasn’t looked nearly as good in their last four games as they did in their first four.

Jaguars (+11) over BENGALS

Buccaneers (+6.5) over BROWNS

Yeah, I just picked two of the worst teams in the league on the road. No, I don’t feel particularly good about it. But neither Cincinnati nor Cleveland has played strong enough recently for me to believe in them either.

VIKINGS (even) over Redskins

I’m shocked that the Vikings were ever favored (line came to even after RG3 announcement). I thought people would overplay the importance of their win in Dallas and they’d be giving three points. I also thought and think they will totally blow this game. And with RG3 it is almost a guarantee they lose. This way heading into the bye week people in D.C. can start saying how Colt McCoy should be the quarterback and that he runs the offense better than Griffin. All of these things will happen and I will be very annoyed.

TEXANS (+2) over Eagles

This line seems too small. I’m trusting Vegas and betting against the trend.

Jets (+9.5) over CHIEFS

Is Vick still really fast? I don’t even know anymore. He could rush for 85 yards and 2 TDs or rush for 6 yards and throw three picks and neither situation would surprise me in the slightest.

Cardinals (+4) over COWBOYS

I believe the Cardinals are the best team in the NFC at the moment. With Tony Romo not 100% I have to imagine their defense will be able to replicate some of the success that the Redskins had on Monday.

Rams (+10) over 49ERS

What has San Francisco done to be a double-digit favorite?

Broncos (-3) over PATRIOTS

Maybe it’s because I don’t follow the NFL anywhere near as close as I have in the past or maybe it’s because this week also had a great World Series and the start of the NBA season, but the Brady vs. Manning hype seems severely turned down this week. This is not a complaint.

Raiders (+15) over SEAHAWKS

Oakland is 3-1 when they are an over six point underdog. Meanwhile Seattle is 1-3 as a six-plus point favorite.

Ravens (even) over STEELERS

Apparently every few games the Steelers look like one of the best teams in the league, but most of the time they are the least talented team in their division. Luckily, since the Steelers were awesome last week the line is not where it should be and I get to bet the Ravens.

Colts (-3) over GIANTS

The Colts defense was due to get torched, but I don’t see any way in which the Giants could get anywhere close to repeating what the Steelers did last week. I also don’t see any way in which they can keep pace with Luck and the Colts.

Week 8: This Will Never Work

I ain't got time for intros, but fair warning, I like too many games this week.

Last Week: 5-10
Lock of the Week: 6-1
Season: 50-55-1

Home team in CAPS

Chargers (+8.5) over BRONCOS
I think if this game took place one week ago the line would have been 5.5. I’m betting on overreaction to a Chargers loss and to Peyton having his best game of the season. The Chargers lost to Andy Reid after the bye, everyone does that. Peyton had a huge game because he, and the whole team, got up for Peyton to get the record. San Diego is too good to be that big of an underdog.

Lions (-3.5) over Falcons

Technically the Falcons are the home team, but this game is London. Unless they moved the Georgia Dome to London, you can bet on the fact that Matt Ryan won’t play well. If I weren’t a bit scared that absolutely anything could happen in a London game, this would be my lock of the week.

Vikings (+3) over BUCCANEERS

Sure, neither team is good, but aren’t the Vikings at least a little bit better? Tampa has looked terrible when I’ve had the misfortune of watching them play, I won’t bet on them as a favorite (except maybe against the Jags or Raiders, but even then I’m not sure).

Bears (+6) over PATRIOTS

Everything is telling me to bet on the Patriots, so I’m picking the Bears.

CHIEFS (-7) over Rams

St. Louis seems due for a letdown after last week and the Chiefs have dominated both their home games thus far this season.

PANTHERS (+5) over Seahawks

It appears we can’t trust Seattle on the road right now. The funny thing is despite losing back to back games and being 1.5 games out of the playoffs, I still think they might be the best team in the league. And yes, I’m still picking against them.

JETS (-3) over Bills

No one in the AFC East is allowed to get two wins above .500. It’s a rule aging Tom Brady made with the devil to ensure that he gets to the playoffs from now until the apocalypse, which will occur in 2028 when Pitbull is elected president.

Dolphins (-6) over JAGUARS

Miami seems to be better on the road than at home, plus there is no way Jacksonville can put up two consecutive solid performances.

Texans (-2.5) over TITANS

Tennessee is starting Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The thought of a rookie 6th round pick going against J.J. Watt frightens me. I think it is possible Watt outscores the Titans. Also, Clowney might come back for this game, that can’t help Mettenberger either.

Ravens (even) over BENGALS without A.J. GREEN

BENGALS with A.J. GREEN (even) over Ravens

The Bengals will find their swagger again this season, but it probably won’t happen until Green is playing.

Eagles (+2.5) over CARDINALS

This game should be really interesting and has a lot of importance to the playoff race, yet for some reason it comes across as very boring to me. I think the Cardinals will slip in the second half of the season and miss the playoffs; this seems like as good a time as any for that to start.

Colts (-3) over STEELERS

Lock of the Week

The weird line of the week. Doesn’t it seem like the Colts should be favored by more? Have the Steelers done anything of note? They won last week, but most of their points came in a three minute span when Houston just handed them the game. Big Ben can’t keep pace with Luck, no way. Weird lines usually mean bet on the side that makes no sense, but I won’t be doing that, not in this one.

Raiders (+7) over BROWNS

The Raiders are the master of the cover and lose.

Packers (+1.5) over SAINTS

Sure, the Saints are better at home than on the road, but in their last home game they needed OT to beat the Bucs. I don’t trust the Saints, and as I said last week I won’t pick them again this season unless they go on a big winning streak (at which point they’d make the playoffs because the NFC South is terrible and I’d probably forget about how bad they’ve been, bet big on them in the playoffs and lose money. Gambling is fun!)

Redskins (+9.5) over COWBOYS

It’s almost always a good idea to take the underdog when these two play. I hope the Redskins aren’t stupid and don’t play RG3 this game. Their season is over, don’t rush him back. I’d sit him at least a week after he is 100%. If he gets injured again that might be the end of it. Does 7% of me secretly hope he plays and leads the Skins to nine straight wins to end the season or something like that a la 2012, yes. But that is stupid, we don’t listen to that 7%.

Week 7: Holt Shit, It's Already Week 7

At this point in the season enough time has gone by (It is already week 7! What happened?) that Vegas knows the teams and the betting trends well. If a line looks weird, it probably means you should bet the opposite of what you think. But I also probably shouldn't drink as much as I do. Sometimes good ideas aren't meant to be followed.

Last Week: 6-8-1
Lock of the Week: 6-0
Season: 45-45-1

Home team in CAPS

Jets (+9.5) over PATRIOTS

I might be dooming myself by picking a bad team on the road in a Thursday game, but the Jets tend to play the Pats close more often than not and I’m still not sold on any level of consistency from New England.

UPDATE: I forgot two games
Panthers (+7) over PACKERS

Carolina just tied Cincinnati in Cincy as seven point underdogs. I think the Bengals are probably better than the Packers, so Carolina seems like a really smart pick here. Does that mean it's wrong? Maybe. I thought they were a smart pick when they got destroyed by Pittsburgh too, but I'm going with it.

Seahawks (+6.5) over RAMS

No way Seattle doesn't bounce back and murder the Rams.

Bengals (+3) over COLTS

The Bengals will right the ship. They played too good for the first few weeks and below what they are capable of recently, they are a much more complete team than Indy, and should reestablish that fact on Sunday.

Titans (+5.5) over REDSKINS

This line is just a smidgen too big. Washington is likely a better team than Tennessee, but don’t deserve to be favored by any more than four points. (Last time I said Washington was favored by more points than they deserved they won by about a billion).

BEARS (-3) over Dolphins

Chicago has been bad at home. If they hope to contend for a playoff spot they need to win games like this.

Browns (-5.5) over JAGUARS

I really wanted to bet on Cleveland when this line opened at three, but I didn't and it has continued to rise. I’ll still pick the Browns, but I’m considerably less confident than I was 2.5 points ago.

RAVENS (-7) over Falcons

For some reason the site I use to get the gambling lines always lists BAL-RB-Ray Rice-OUT under all Ravens games. He is no longer on the team any more, why do they still have this alert? Hey, also, NYJ-QB-Joe Namath-OUT.

BILLS (-5.5) over Vikings

The Vikings have not played a single game that didn't result in a double-digit victory or loss this season. Makes for some boring football up north.

LIONS (-3) over Saints

Unless they rattle off four or five straight covers, I’m not picking the Saints again this season. I’m disgusted with them.

CHARGERS (-4) over Chiefs

Lock of the Week

This line has been trending towards Kansas City and they still have more than half the action. What am I missing? Is this because the Chargers barely beat Oakland last week? Yes, the Chiefs have been silently pretty good since looking like one of the worst teams in the league in Week 1, but the Chargers have been not silently quite good (although their win over the Seahawks is not quite as amazing as it looked at the time after Seattle lost to Dallas in Seattle

Giants (+6.5) over COWBOYS

I’m starting to get slightly worried that the bottom isn't going to drop out on this Cowboys team. I still think it will, but I’m much less confident than I was a week ago.

Cardinals (-3.5) over RAIDERS

I have developed a plan for betting on the Raiders the rest of the season. Large spreads, pick the Raiders. Small spreads, pick against the Raiders. They seem to play games closer than expected, but still always lose.

BRONCOS (-6.5) over 49ers

San Francisco is the most confusing team in the league to me at the moment. They looked ready to regress to average and don’t seem to pass the eye test, but they do seem to win games and are in the playoff picture.

Texans (+3.5) over STEELERS

The Steelers are also confusing. They really seem terrible, but it would not shock me if they came out and won this game by 20 points either, just to keep people unsure.

Week 6: Where I Pick Too Many Favorites

I’ll be honest, last week I paid almost no attention to football because I was focusing on playoff baseball. I know, I’m as surprised as you are. Also, last week I really didn’t like in of the spreads very much (yet I still put up a winning record, showing that it really doesn’t matter too much if I think my picks are a good bet or not).

Last week: 9-6
Lock of the week: 5-0
Season: 39-37

Home team in CAPS

Colts (-3) over TEXANS

The Colts defense is forcing turnovers; they are sustaining a mediocre rushing game; they have only allowed six sacks and 18 hits on Luck through five games (last year they let up the 2nd most QB hits). If they can hold those trends, they will have a shot to compete with the top dogs in the AFC. Of course, it is also possible their offensive line gets eaten alive this game.

JETS (+10) over Broncos

New York opened as only 4.5-point underdogs? How did that happen? Really wish I had bet early this week, but it has now risen to 10. Is that still a good bet? Probably, but I’m staying away from double digit favorites after forgetting that I was doing that last week.

BROWNS (-1.5) over Steelers
The first rematch of the season. Seems early for a rematch. Also seems kinda boring.

TITANS (-6) over Jaguars

One of these days Jacksonville will cover a spread and this may be their best shot, but I don’t see any reason to pick them until after that day comes.

FALCONS (-3) over Bears

Bet on Atlanta at home, bet against Atlanta on the road. Sometimes gambling needs to be simplified, not complicated.

DOLPHINS (+3) over Packers

My thoughts are that the Packers are looking good and Miami is nothing special. My deeper thoughts are that I am 2-7 in my picks on these two teams, so all my instincts about them are wrong. So my action is betting on the team I think will lose.

VIKINGS (+1.5) over Lions

The Lions without a good offense is like Martin with no Gina. I’ll take the home team with the points.

Panthers (+7) over BENGALS

It is entirely possible that Cincinnati wins by 25 points or something, but I expect this game to be close and low scoring.

BILLS (+3) over Patriots

I’m prepared for the next down on the Patriots see-saw season.

Ravens (-3) over BUCCANEERS

Lock of the Week

I had to double check this line. Is this line close because the Bucs almost beat the Saints last week? The Saints are garbage. Almost beating the Saints means nothing. Remember how terrible this Bucs team was the first three weeks of the year. This is still the same team. A team of garbage.

Chargers (-7) over RAIDERS

San Diego is the only team undefeated against the spread. We are at the ride your horses time of year.

SEAHAWKS (-8) over Cowboys

The bad news is that Dallas is 4-1 and it isn’t unrealistic to see them finding a way to make it to 8-2. The good news is that they are the Cowboys and could start 8-2 and find a way to lose their last six games and miss the playoffs. That would be pretty fun.

CARDINALS (-3.5) over Redskins

You are suggesting on a neutral field that the Cardinals would only be favored by a half point against the Redskins? I know Arizona got beat soundly last week, but I feel like I’m missing something. I guess it depends who the Cards will have at QB, but does it really matter?

Giants (+3) over EAGLES

Oh boy I hope the stupid Giants don’t become good this season, but I’m a little bit worried.

49ers (-3.5) over RAMS

I don’t want to pick all the favorites, but these lines are making it hard for me (I’ve already changed multiple of my first instinct picks to get more underdogs in the mix). As much as I still think the 49ers are average this year, their defense should still keep the Rams from doing much of anything.

Week 5: NFC in Review

Week 5, probably the last glimmer hope for the bad teams not based in Jacksonville or Oakland (they are already out of hope). 1-3 is bad, but manageable, 1-4 is basically donezo. So, while I still can find something good to say about each NFC team, let’s take a look at why everyone should be feeling good and feeling bad about their season thus far and their chances in the rest of the year.

Philadelphia Eagles

Good: Your offense is among the most dangerous (when healthy) and last week you found ways to score even when the offense couldn't get going. Plus you play in the NFC East, so you don’t even have to be that good to make the playoffs.

Bad: Your entire offensive line is in shambles. That Chip Kelly offense doesn't look quite as strong when the line can’t block.

Dallas Cowboys

Good: I don’t know how you did it, but you are 3-1. The offense has been scoring as you hoped and the defense has been halfway decent.

Bad: It still seems like the defense is standing on a false floor and eventually they are going to fall. They’ve let up the most yards per play of any defense and has yet to face a good offense (and no, the Saints on the road don’t count).

New York Giants

Good: In the last two games you've forced 9 turnovers. You've started 0-2 and looked really bad before, only to come back and win the Super Bowl.

Bad: Those first two games were everything you feared as Eli was throwing picks like last year. No one knows if you can win a game without the opposing QB trying to give you the ball as much as possible.

Washington Redskins

Good: On the one hand, Cousins has only had one bad game and could still make something of his opportunity. Or, you could say after last game that the way Cousins is playing there won’t be any controversy when RG3 comes back.

Bad: Their next two games are vs. the Seahawks and in Arizona. That looks a lot like 1-5. The special teams aren't quite as bad as last year, but are still probably the worst in the league. The defense hasn't done much outside of the Jags game.

Detroit Lions

Good: First place! And that’s without too much impact from Calvin Johnson (341 yards and 2 TDs is still good, but below his expectations), who you assume will get back to producing at video game levels. The defense has really been the star of the team thus far.

Bad: Remember that you were 3-1 last season as well. Your final two games are in Chicago and Green Bay and your coach is still Jim Caldwell, gotta think that ends up biting you at some point. Sounds like a recipe for another late season Detroit collapse.

Green Bay Packers

Good: Three of your games have been on the road and you've won twice with zero rushing game thus far.

Bad: The zero rushing game this far looks like it is a problem. Also, the defense is struggling.

Chicago Bears

Good: It seems like the NFC North is going to be a battle all year and come down to the last few weeks. With healthy receivers you should have as good of a chance as anyone in the bunch.

Bad: Have you watched Devin Hester in Atlanta? Remember all those years you couldn't find out how to get him involved in the offense?

Minnesota Vikings

Good: Teddy Bridgewater looks competent and like he will give you a better chance of winning than Matt Cassel. The running game went off for 241 yards last week without Peterson.

Bad: Remember how you handled the Adrian Peterson situation?

Carolina Panthers

Good: Defense looked really good for two games

Bad: Offense looked pretty bad for four games, defense looked bad for two as well.

Atlanta Falcons

Good: Home games

Bad: Away games

New Orleans Saints

Good: Home games

Bad: Away games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good: Week 4

Bad: The rest

Arizona Cardinals

Good: The defense has been playing out of its mind. Everyone knows about the secondary, but really it has been the play against the run (helped by being able to leave secondary to operate one-on-one).

Bad: You lead the league in first downs gained by penalty and you’ve played one less game than most of the league. That kind of luck won’t continue.

Seattle Seahawks

Good: You are probably going to win the Super Bowl again.

Bad: The expectations are unrealistically high.

San Francisco 49ers

Good: Take away the dumb penalties and you are at least 3-1, if not 4-0.

Bad: Nothing is exciting about your team anymore. The offense is stale, the defense is slipping and you seem to be incredibly mistake prone.

St. Louis Rams

Good: Expectations were lowered after the Bradford injury.

Bad: After another Bradford injury the team probably isn't ready to give up on him (unless Austin Davis turns out to be the answer).

Last Week: 6-7
Lock of the Week: 4-0
Season: 30-31

Home team in CAPS

Vikings (+8) over PACKERS

This line definitely seems too high, so much so that I’m really tempted to take the Packers, but I’ll trust my instincts (and probably regret it). If Bridgewater doesn’t play, all bets are off though.

Bears (+2.5) over PANTHERS

I have no idea who the Panthers are this season. After the first two games everyone looked stupid for thinking they’d regress. Now everyone looks stupid for doubting themselves.

Browns (+2) over TITANS

Lock of the Week
Not going to do research on this game to second guess myself. The Browns have looked much better than the Titans in my mind, hanging with solid to decent teams regardless of where they play – it makes sense (in my mind) for them to then beat a bad team.

EAGLES (-7) over Rams

The Eagles get an offensive lineman back on Sunday, which means they should have three offensive lineman starting in their proper positions instead of just one. This should be enough to get their offense back on track.

GIANTS (-4) over Falcons

The Giants don’t deserve to be favored by four, but I will not take Matt Ryan on the road unless the line is insane. At home this season he has six TDs and no interceptions with an adjusted yards per attempt of 12.75. On the road he had four TDs, five interceptions with 4.52 adjusted yards/per attempt. The Giants have won their last two games because the opposing QB gave them the game; it is likely the same will happen again this week.

SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers

I said last week that I would be giving up on the Saints hopes if they didn't look good against the Cowboys. They looked terrible, but by virtue of their division I can’t give up hopes yet. Going 8-0 at home might have them tied with the also 8-0 at home, 0-8 on the road Falcons.

Texans (+6) over COWBOYS

I refuse to believe the Cowboys are good, it is time for them to put up a stinker.

Bills (+7) over LIONS

Neck beard to the rescue!

Ravens (+3.5) over COLTS

If this line were a half point less I’d be betting on the Colts, but as I can’t pick them favored by over a field goal. I think the Ravens are not quite as good as they seem and will end up closer to .500 than they are on pace for; however, the Colts are also rife with flaws and haven’t beaten anyone who isn’t terrible yet.

Steelers (-6) over JAGUARS

Disclaimer: I am 0-4 on Steelers games this season, so take anything I say about them with even less respect than you would give my normal thoughts. Pittsburgh has got to come out and stomp on Jacksonville after losing to the Bucs, right? There is no way they let two of the worst three teams in the league hang with them for back to back weeks.

Cardinals (+7.5) over BRONCOS

Arizona is undefeated and has the best defense in the league to this point. They should not be underdogs by this many points. No respect.

Chiefs (+6) over 49ERS

Alex Smith revenge game?

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Jets

Have the Jets become the most boring team in football? I have no interest in watching them play. They aren't quite bad enough to be comical, they aren't good enough to be intriguing, they don’t have a single must watch player. At least last year they were a bit of a train wreck. They should bring back Tebow for the coverage.

PATRIOTS (+1) over Bengals

Cincy has been unquestionably the best team through the first four weeks of the season. The Patriots are coming of their worst game in over a decade. There is no reason to pick the Patriots other than simple fear of past year Patriots, the line doesn't make sense to anyone who looks at stats or game tape. For all these reasons, you must take New England.

Seahawks (-7) over REDSKINS

The Giants defense took Kirk Cousins apart. He probably has been having nightmares about the Seahawks defense all week.