Week 1: A New Hope

All of the sudden it’s football season again. Sundays filled with outdoor liquor consumption will now change to Sundays avoiding sunlight and slowly giving up on the Redskins chances of ever being good again. Also, gambling. A whole lot of gambling. I have a job now that actually pays me enough money that I can somewhat afford to gamble, this will probably end poorly. Also, semi-related, I have a real job now and a lot less time to dick around looking up football stats and making uninspired Tim Tebow jokes, so these blog posts will likely get shorter and I’d say more inaccurate, but I don’t think that’s possible.

In fact, by virtue of spending a lot less time than ever before reading about this upcoming football season, I am more excited and confident about the gambling to come than I have been in years.

As always, the start of a season is really where you should have your best chance to make money because Vegas doesn’t know enough about the teams yet. Yes, they know way more than you or I do, but the knowledge gap will only widen as the season progresses, so now is the time to strike.

Things I’m excited about for the 2014 NFL Season:

-Starting quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Brian Hoyer, Derek Carr, Shaun Hill, Carson Palmer, Josh McCown, Matt Cassel, Geno Smith. That’s nearly 1/3 of the league trotting out QBs I do not have any faith in.

-The potential for an all-time terrible defense in Dallas.

Things I’m not excited about for the 2014 NFL Season:

-Starting quarterback Robert Griffin III. Could be a long year for the Redskins. At least they get to play that Dallas defense twice.

One more thing I’m excited about:

-I’m wrong a lot, so maybe I’m wrong about RG3.

Last Season: 119-129-9 (that's bad)

Home team in CAPS

Packers (+6) over SEAHAWKS

I fully expect Seattle to contend for the Super Bowl again, but this line seems quite high for a Packers team that was really good last season when healthy. The Seahawks deserve to be favored, just not by six points. This is also the biggest stay away game of the week. In fact, betting on Thursday Night Football never seems to go well.

FALCONS (+3) over Saints

The Saints are one of the most popular picks to challenge Seattle for the NFC crown, but I don’t see them improving as much as everyone else seems to think they will. Meanwhile, there is no way Atlanta can be as bad as they were last year. This line opened at Falcons favored by one, it has swung too far the other way.

RAMS (-4) over Vikings

Is Shaun Hill really that much of a downgrade from Sam Bradford? Probably not. (This is not intended to be a compliment of Shaun Hill).

STEELERS (-6.5) over Browns

Does anyone have any confidence about any team in the AFC North this season? The Ravens and Steelers have both screwed themselves with the cap. The Bengals constantly seem like they should be at the end of their run, and the Browns are simply terrible.

Jaguars (+10.5) over EAGLES

I’m taking any double-digit spreads in Week 1.

JETS (-5.5) over Raiders

The Raiders roster seemingly gets worse every single year. I cannot think of one thing I’d be excited about if I were a Raiders fan. Maybe the fact that the Golden State Warriors season is less than two months away?

RAVENS (-1.5) over Bengals

When I don’t particularly like either team in week 1, as long as the line isn’t crazy high, I like the home team.

BEARS (-7) over Bills

Chicago will have a bad defense this year, but fortunately for them Buffalo does not really have an offense, so it should work out.

TEXANS (-3) over Redskins
Lock of the Week

RG3 is going to have a lot of troubles with two monsters trying to destroy him all day. Houston’s offense will have struggles this season, but their defense will keep them in most games given their schedule.

CHIEFS (-4) over Titans

I think Ken Whisenhunt is a really good coach when he has a strong quarterback. I do not think Jake Locker is a strong quarterback. If the Titans had picked up

Patriots (-5) over DOLPHINS

Part of me wanted to pick the Dolphins, but then I remember that the Patriots are still much better than the rest of the AFC East and don’t lose on opening weekend.

Panthers (+2) over BUCCANEERS

Everyone is high on the Bucs and everyone is low on the Panthers. Last year the Panthers won 8 more games than Tampa. Eight! I do think the teams will approach each other, but Carolina still has a strong defense and I don’t have faith in Josh McCown.

49ers (-5) over COWBOYS

Just real excited to see how bad this Dallas defense can play.

Colts (+7.5) over BRONCOS

Indy was able to straight up beat Denver last year and I think the Broncos might regress slightly on offense. Question, will people ever hate Andrew Luck like people hate Manning and Brady? Or will he enter that strange Drew Brees category where everyone seems to cheer for him no matter how good he gets? I tend to think it might be the latter. Something about his mega deep voice and persona could keep people from turning on him.

Giants (+5.5) over LIONS

Very few things make less sense to me than the Lions hiring Jim Caldwell this offseason. Yes, he did well as interim offensive coordinator in the Ravens playoff run, but then last season the Ravens offense finished 29th in total yards and 25th in total points. I’m not sure how that performance warrants a head coaching job offer.

Chargers (+3) over CARDINALS

They always open the season with a double header on Monday night. I cannot remember a time that I’ve been excited for the second game. Sure, that is in large part because it is late and features west coast teams (and possibly always the Chargers – feels like it is always the Chargers).