Conference Championships: Inevitable Smug Bowl Coming

So the bad news is that I went 1-3 last week and now the best winning percentage I can have for the playoffs is 55%. But the good news (for me) is that despite my picks on here I still managed to win money though teasers, halftime lines and moneyline bets.

Last Week: 1-3
Playoffs: 3-5

Home team in CAPS

SEATTLE (-7.5) over Packers

Against the team that allowed the seventh most passing yards all season, fifth most yards per attempt and ranked 21st in defensive DVOA - AND at home, Rodgers looked good, but certainly not great. The Seahawks allow the least yards passing, third fewest yards per attempt and have the top ranked DVOA defense; so it might be a struggle for Rodgers to carry Green Bay to a win. And make no mistake, for the Packers to win, Rodgers would have to carry them.

"Remember that time when..."

Remember when the Seahawks were 3-3 and it looked like they might have fallen back to earth, only we all knew they were probably still going to be in the Super Bowl and it was just a matter of time before they found their stride? I don’t really have a point here, just remember? Probably would have been smart to make a futures bet on them at that point in time.

Final score prediction: Seahawks 34, Packers 20


PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Colts

Andrew Luck and the Colts have had the fortune (I will not make a Luck pun) of being able to play perennial playoff duds Andy Dalton and bad leg noodle arm Peyton Manning. I don’t think they’ll run into an offense that struggles to score this week with Brady and the Pats.

Eventually the fact that the Colts just aren't a very good football team will catch up with them. I expect Belichick to make life a living hell for Luck and like Rodgers in the NFC, Luck will need to carry his team with a great performance for them to have a chance. I’m predicting a semi close score, but I wouldn't be surprised if this one was over by half time either.

Final score prediction: Patriots 27, Colts 17


So yes, I’m predicting a Super Bowl with the top seed in each conference in what will certainly be one of the smuggest coaching battles of all time. I mean just look at these assholes. If it weren't for betting don’t know how I’d cheer for one. I mean, just look at them. It's like Aliens vs. Predator, whoever wins, we lose.

vs.

Divisional Playoff Round

I thought playoff betting was supposed to be easier. Turns out it is not easier, it just entices me to make stupid prop bets that I would never make on a regular season game. This means the Super Bowl will likely be littered with dumb prop bets made by me, but that’s a story for another time.

Last Week: 2-2
Home team in CAPS

PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens

It seems like because the Ravens pulled off one upset in the playoffs a lot of people think this is suddenly the same team that won the Super Bowl two years ago and that Joe Flacco is invincible if he finds his way into the playoffs. That is not the case. The Patriots secondary should make things much tougher for Flacco than the Steelers did and Brady will find a way to abuse the Ravens porous secondary.

The only time the Pats did not cover at home this year was in Week 17 when they had nothing to play for against the Bills. All signs point to a big Patriots win, but take heed, the Patriots have found ways to lose games as favorites in the playoffs nearly every year since their last Super Bowl win.

Final score prediction: Patriots 34, Ravens 20

SEAHAWKS (-11) over Panthers
Earlier this season these two met and Carolina kept things close before falling 13-9, so it is not unrealistic to expect a close, low-scoring battle but it is wrong. Since that game in October, Seattle has found their form again, winning their last six games by double digits. Granted, the Panthers have improved since October as well, but they are still a severely flawed team. If the Cardinals had a quarterback and/or punter that functioned at a league average level, they might not have made it out of the first round. This might stay close for the first half, but Seattle will pull away

Final score prediction: Seahawks 27, Panthers 13

PACKERS (-5.5) over Cowboys

Green Bay is 8-0 at home, Dallas is 8-0 on the road. That stat will be mentioned a lot. And yes, Dallas beat some good teams on the road – Philly and Seattle, but that was during the Seahawks slump and the Packers are simply much better at home than the Eagles. But it simply comes down to this, I refuse to believe that Dallas is good enough to win a January game at Lambeau. They might be even be properly built for it with a strong line and running game, but I’m not buying it. One quarterback will be a game changing mistake at one point this game and I’ll bet on that being Tony Romo over Aaron Rodgers ten times out of ten.

Final score prediction: Packers 30, Cowboys 21

BRONCOS (-7) over Colts

The only way the Colts keep this game close is if noodle arm, cold weather, playoff Manning shows up and looks terrible. There is a real chance of this happening, but in all other facets of the game the Broncos are twice as good as the Colts.

Final score prediction: Broncos 26, Colts 17


Note – One underdog always wins this weekend. It is never the top four seeds in the conference championship, so despite picking all the favorites to cover, I believe that one underdog will probably win outright.

Wild Card Weekend

I failed to write my picks last week because the holiday threw off my schedule. So to look back, I had a terrible week 16, going just 3-13 for my worst week of the year by far. I didn’t have a chance to attempt to get my season record back up to .500 in week 17, but I assure you I would not have gone 14-2, which I needed to end at .500. All of this is okay, because now it is the playoffs and it is time to make money.

Well, it is time to bet more on games and potentially lose money. My over confidence in Alabama beating Ohio State didn’t really pay off, but I don’t even pretend to know anything about college football. I do pretend to know stuff about the NFL.

Last week: 0-0
Week 16: 3-13
Lock of the Week: 9-7
Season: 111-125-3
Home team in CAPS

PANTHERS (-6.5) over Cardinals

Yes, the team with a sub-.500 record is favored by the most points of anyone this weekend. But, as a fellow sub-.500 season, the Panthers are my spirit team. We can still achieve success despite past failures, this is America damnit!

More importantly, the Panthers are hot and will be playing against Ryan Lindley on the road. The Cardinals defense is great, but better against the pass than the run and the Panthers have been running the ball well to close the season. My only question is will the Panthers score enough to cover a spread that is nearly a touchdown? I believe it will be close.

Final score prediction: Panthers 20, Cardinals 13


STEELERS (-3) over Ravens

Last time these two played Big Ben threw for 340 yards and six touchdowns, while I don’t expect a repeat of that performance, it is clear that the Ravens weakness is their secondary and Pittsburgh can pass all over them.

Additionally, the Steelers have covered in their last four games while the Ravens have failed to cover in three straight and four of their last five. Baltimore certainly has the talent to win this game and Bell’s injury status is a bit of a concern, but not enough to sway me away from the Steelers.

Final score prediction: Steelers 31, Ravens 23


Bengals (+3.5) over COLTS

I know the Bengals don’t win playoffs games and Andy Dalton on the road, etc., etc. But Cincinnati is a superior team across the board. They should manhandle the Colts offensive line and shut down the running game completely. On the other side of the ball, Hill and Bernard should both have solid games against the Colts weak front seven. If Dalton can avoid giving the game away, the only way the Colts win is with a HUGE game from Luck. Of course it is entirely possible that Luck does have a huge game and the Bengals lose in the first round again, but I think Cincy finally gets a win.

Final score prediction: Bengals 20, Colts 17


Lions (+6.5) over COWBOYS

Detroit is the only defensive line in the league capable of standing toe-to-toe with the Dallas offensive line. If they can find a way to minimize the Cowboys run game and keep pressure on Romo, they will have every chance to win.

I know the Cowboys ended the season hot and I fully believe they are the only NFC team capable of winning in Seattle, but they’ll need to get past the Lions first and it is going to be harder than most people believe it will. Of course the Lions are the Lions and Jim Caldwell is coaching on the road. Still, it stays close.

Finals score prediction: Cowboys 26, Lions 24