Week 17 Picks

It’s the last week of the regular season and pretty much everything is still up for grabs. It is the first season I can ever really remember where there would have been no harm in having the fantasy football championships played in Week 17. Seriously, there are only three games that have zero playoff implications – obviously one of them involves the Redskins.

As for the playoffs, after last week they should just cancel the second wild card in the AFC. Miami and Baltimore both proved they don’t deserve it and now it is a four team race with approximately 10 different scenarios in which no one completely control their own destiny. All the teams win, Miami is in, but if all of them lose, Baltimore is in; if Miami and Baltimore win, but the Chargers lose, then Baltimore gets in, and it goes on. But it will be exciting for those fans, nothing is quite as agonizing as scoreboard watching.

The craziest thing is that the AFC is crappy enough that this mystery wild card could end up making the Super Bowl and I wouldn’t be shocked. I will be shocked if I somehow get all my picks correct, but if I do, I’ll finish the season above .500.

Last Week: 8-8
Lock of the Week: 4-11-1
Season: 109-123-9

Home team in CAPS

FALCONS (+6.5) over Panthers
The trick I have to avoid this week is thinking that every team that has something to play for will cover over the teams that are eliminated. I could definitely see this game being close the entire way.

Texans (+7) over TITANS
I still believe the Redskins have a chance at ending this season in the most humiliating way, which would have to involve the Texans winning here.

STEELERS (-7) over Browns
Pittsburgh has covered six of their last seven spreads, the Browns have failed to cover five of their last six spreads. Trends!

Redskins (+3.5) over GIANTS
While I still somewhat expect the Redskins to finish with the worst record in the league, for some reason I have a feeling they will win this game. There is no evidence or theory behind this feeling.

BENGALS (-6) over Ravens
I’ve written about it frequently, but the Bengals are an unstoppable juggernaut at home, built solely for the purpose of covering spreads.

Jaguars (+11) over COLTS
It’s always a crapshoot with the inconsistent Colts. Double digit spreads are too much for a crapshoot.

DOLPHINS (-6) over Jets
As long as I’m talking about inconsistency, seems like a perfect time for both the Dolphins and the Jets. I trust the Jets will continue to be crappy on the road, but I also have no faith whatsoever in the Dolphins after last week.

Lions (+3) over VIKINGS
Do not bet on this game. One, it’s meaningless. Two, two lame duck coaches. Three, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are both listed as questionable. Nothing good can come of this.

Bills (+8.5) over PATRIOTS
New England seems to have a serious case of only playing well against good teams this season. Expect them to play down and this game to be a lot closer than it should be.

Packers (-3) over BEARS
Aaron Rodgers is finally back after what seemed like the longest absence in professional sports history due to a broken collar bone. At this point I’ve probably built him up in my head too much because who even remembers what he played like, but I’m pretty sure the Packers are far and away the better team with Rodgers.

SAINTS (-12.5) over Buccaneers
I know this line is too high, but I see the Saints murdering this game. They will score 45 points and everyone will be high on their offensive firepower heading into the playoffs, where they will proceed to get beat by 12 points on the road.

RAIDERS (+12) over Broncos
Double-digit home underdog. Matchup is irrelevant, I’m taking it.

CARDINALS (even) over 49ers
Poor Cardinals. They will go 11-5, but sit at home and watch the 9-7 Dolphins play in the playoffs.

Chiefs (+9.5) over CHARGERS

Lock of the Week

I realize Kansas City is locked into the five seed and has nothing to gain, so they might rest their starters. But if Miami or Baltimore wins their early game, then the Chargers have nothing to play for either, making this line crazy high.

SEAHAWKS (-11) over Rams
I would love to see the Rams cover and have people sour on the Seahawks playoff chances because they played back-to-back subpar games at home, but I can’t imagine it actually happening.

COWBOYS (+6.5) over Eagles
It seems like the spread swung just a bit too much with Romo getting injured. Sure, it hurts the Cowboys and I think the Eagles will win, but I’m wary of this line.

Week 16 Picks

Mercifully there is no Thursday game this week. Of course this didn’t occur until Thursday games ruined about half of survivor and fantasy leagues across the globe. Regardless, I will enjoy the extra game on Red Zone on Sunday. Also, I enjoyed not having to think to myself, oh yeah, there is a football game on TV right now last night.

Let’s get into it.

Last week: 9-6-1
Lock of the Week: 3-11-1
Season: 101-115-9

Home team in CAPS

Dolphins (-2.5) over BILLS

Add the Dolphins to the growing list of teams I have no idea what to expect from. Could they make the playoff and win a game or two? Sure! Could they drop their last two games to the Bills and Jets? Absolutely! Could one of their players drive another one to leave the team and open up a multi-week discourse about the nature of bullying and sports that is nearly forgotten after a month? Wait, this one already happened.

PANTHERS (-3) over Saints

Not to be trusted outside of New Orleans – girls excited to flash you in exchange for beads, Crawfish Etouffee, Delta blues, and the Saints.

Cowboys (-3) over REDSKINS

I’ll take December Romo over anything Redskins related in 2013.

RAMS (-5) over Buccaneers

The Rams seem like a team with promise, but sadly for them they are in the best division in football. Also, somehow no one has any idea if Sam Bradford is any good or not yet.

CHIEFS (-6.5) over Colts

Both teams are playing for playoff seeding, but there is a lot more on the line for the Chiefs, who could be first, second, or fifth. The Colts are likely the three or four-seed with a slight, but unlikely chance at the two seed. Good chance this game is replayed in two weeks in Indy.

JETS (-2.5) over Browns
Lock of the Week

I’d say this is a strong bet, except for the fact that I’ve made it my lock of the week, which all but guarantees that it is a terrible bet. The Browns have lost eight of their last nine (although everyone knows they deserved to beat the Patriots) and the Jets are 5-2 at home.

BENGALS (-7.5) over Vikings

The Vikings have covered the spread in their last four games and in six of their last seven, but the Bengals are undefeated at home, both straight up and against the spread.

TEXANS (+10.5) over Broncos

Double digit favorites on the road is a little too much. Plus, we are a Texans win away from the Redskins having the worst record in the NFL, so destiny might push them forward here.

JAGUARS (+5) over Titans

I can’t muster up the energy to write anything about this game.

SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Cardinals

I don’t like this line at all and believe the Cardinals are the better pick, but for no reason whatsoever, I think the Seahawks will cover. And we should go ahead and start talking about this right now - in 4 years when we find out that the Seahawks had a doctor supplying the entire team PEDs, what do we do about them winning the Super Bowl this year? Does it still count?

LIONS (-9) over Giants

Remember that mid-season run the Giants made when it looked like they’d get into the playoff picture? Thankfully all that mess is over and Eli Manning has gone back to being Captain Interception.

Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS

San Diego has been looking strong lately, my instincts tell me it is time for them to be terrible. Perhaps no longer a fair statement in the post-Norv era, but they have to prove it to me first.

Steelers @ PACKERS

There is no line for this game because no one is sure if Aaron Rodgers is going to play. If he plays, they’ll cover, if he does not, they will not.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Patriots

No one should trust the Patriots on the road. The Ravens will win this game, drop the Patriots to the three-seed, but then lose to the Bengals next week and have to go to Foxboro to play the Pats in the first round of the playoffs, where they will proceed to lose by 19 points.

EAGLES (-3) over Bears
The Eagles will rush for 300 yards and the Bears will pass for 400 yards. Should be fun.

Falcons (+13) over 49ERS

I bet ESPN is pretty annoyed that the Falcons were so disappointing this year. This game was likely intended to set the tone for the NFC favorite, whoops.

Week 15 picks - The End is Near

The Redskins situation is so ugly that I barely want to watch any football. Couple that with the fact that both my fantasy teams are out and I’ve had real work to do at work, and all of the sudden it’s the middle of the day on Thursday and I’ve forgotten that NFL Week 15 starts tonight.

Hoping to build on back-to-back winning weeks and finish strong. Except of course for my lock of the week, which is still hot garbage.

Last Week: 9-7
Joke of the Week: 3-10-1
Season: 92-109-8

Home team in CAPS

BRONCOS (-10.5) over Chargers

I want to say this spread is too high, but Denver continues to crank out large victories and appears unbeatable at home (for now, this opinion/fact could change during the playoffs).

FALCONS (-7) over Redskins

It seems impossible for this Redskins season to end in any way other than them finishing with the worst record and handing the number one pick to the Rams.

49ers (-5) over BUCCANEERS

I can’t believe that Tampa is a capable team. Sure, I haven’t watched them actually play at all this year, but I’m sticking to my guns. My guns being believing in the narrative that was created when they were 0-7 (I know they went 0-8 to start, but that 8th loss was a really close game in Seattle, the first signs that perhaps they aren’t terrible and perhaps Greg Schiano isn’t the worst).

Seahawks (-7) over GIANTS

The most interceptions Eli Manning has thrown in a season is 25. He is at 20 right now with three games to go. Can he break it? I believe in you Eli!

Bears (even) over BROWNS

Jay Cutler is likely to play and the Bears go from underdogs to even? People are familiar with Jay Cutler right? Just so another team feels confused by their quarterback situation, I hope Cutler starts the rest of the season, plays poorly, and then is offered a multi-million dollar contract to stay in Chicago.

COLTS (-5.5) over Texans

In order for the Redskins to end up with that top pick (and then not actually have it) the Texans have to get at least one win in there somewhere and I’m not sure if that’s possible, but it will happen because, Redskins.

Bills (+2) over JAGUARS

Remember when we all thought the Jaguars would end the season winless?

Patriots (even) over DOLPHINS

I get that the Patriots have been subpar on the road, with their only wins coming over the Falcons, Texans, and Bills – by a collective 12 points, but well, actually --

DOLPHINS (even) over Patriots

I’ve convinced myself.

Eagles (-4.5) over VIKINGS

Lock of the Week
Let's see how good the Eagles really are. Can they fight through my lock of the week jinx? Ultimately, I’m fine with the Eagles recovering from a bad season, starting slow and then rallying to win the NFC East. We all know what happens to those teams the following year.

PANTHERS (-11) over Jets

One of two things happen – either the Jets play like they have on the road all season, and turn the ball over a ton as Carolina beats up on a bad team to feel better about their spanking last week. OR Carolina is looking past the Jets to another shot at the Saints to redeem themselves from their spanking and get caught in a trap game.

RAMS (+6) over Saints

New Orleans has lost its last four road games against the spread and St. Louis does well against teams that are not strong defensively.

Cardinals (-3) over TITANS

Arizona seems poised to just miss the playoff and have people get really excited about them. But then those people will at some point remember that Carson Palmer is 34 and Carson Palmer. Fun game – guess the age difference between Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington? While tempted to guess 12 years, the actual answer is only two years.

Chiefs (-4.5) over RAIDERS

The tendency is to think that Kansas City is a team with among the strongest home field advantage in the league, but they are actually 5-1 against the spread on the road and just 2-5 ATS at home.

COWBOYS (-7) over Packers

If Aaron Rodgers plays, take whatever the spread is and bet on Green Bay.

STEELERS (+2.5) over Bengals

I still like the AFC North on the road in divisional games.

LIONS (-6) over Ravens

And I mostly like that because AFC North teams are terrible on the road. I don’t remember home field being this important in the NFL in recent years, so I looked it up. This year home teams have won 61.84% of games. In 2012, 57.25% of home teams won. In 2011, 56.64%. And in 2010, 55.86%. Also, home favorites are covering 55.22% of games, which is far better than my own winning percentage.

Week 14 Picks

Due my lack of skill in making picks, the terribleness of the Redskins, and an overall lack of exciting playoff races, for the first time ever, I’m more interested in my fantasy football results than I am in real football results. It is a weird feeling. But, RED HOT ALERT! I’m coming off my fourth winning week of the season.

Last Week: 8-7-1
Lock of the Week: 3-9-1
Season: 83-102-8

Home team in CAPS

JAGUARS (-3) over Texans

Everyone is in for a treat tonight! Thursday night football is usually terrible, but we’ve got the Texans and Jaguars battling this week. That’s right! The teams that currently hold the top two picks in the 2014 draft are facing off. We can only hope this game lives up to their contest from two weeks ago, in which Jacksonville won a 13-6 thrillfest.

Chiefs (-3) over REDSKINS

While I didn’t expect the Redskins to make the playoffs this season, I certainly didn’t expect this level of suck. It is frustrating because at times they look like a team capable of playing the sport of football, but unfortunately most of the time they do not look that way, which is a problem for a professional football team.

RAVENS (-6.5) over Vikings

Baltimore will have a full one game lead for the final AFC wild card spot after this week, but I think everyone can agree that the AFC doesn’t even deserve six playoff teams this year.

PATRIOTS (-11.5) over Browns

If the Browns end up starting Alex Tanney or Caleb Hanie and Josh Gordon still manages to get over 200 yards receiving then everyone needs to stop what they are doing and vote him into the Pro Bowl – and possibly the Hall of Fame.

Raiders (+3) over JETS

This seems like a no brainer, but at the same time the Jets have beaten both the Saints and Patriots this season at home, so in conclusion, I have no idea.

BENGALS (-6) over Colts

Cincinnati has not lost against the spread at home this year, so might as well keep riding them. In all likelihood this game is for the third seed in the AFC, winner gets the Ravens (or whoever ends up being sixth), loser gets the Chiefs.

EAGLES (-2.5) over Lions

I don’t like the idea of the Eagles being for real, but I think the Lions are going to ensure that the NFC North race goes down to the last week.

STEELERS (-3) over Dolphins
Lock of the Week

In retrospect, do you think Jacoby Jones wishes he had just trucked Mike Tomlin? If he had actually made contact Tomlin would likely have gotten in more trouble and the Steelers would have been given a 15-yard penalty.

Bills (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS

I think the Bucs moment of glory has passed, they will revert to losing games.

Titans (+12) over BRONCOS

Just seems a bit too high.

CARDINALS (-6.5) over Rams

Arizona is still really good at home and I don’t see how the Rams can score against their defense.

CHARGERS (-3) over Giants

The final death blow for the Giants in my mind was when they barely beat the Redskins. Yes, the Redskins actually beat the Chargers, but that was before they turned into complete mush.

Seahawks (+3) over 49ERS

No one knows what to make of Seattle outside of Seattle, so let’s just stay away from this game.

PACKERS (-??) over Falcons

This line will move by about eight or so points depending on if Aaron Rodgers is capable of playing. I’ll go ahead and say now, if he plays, they’ll cover whatever the line is, if he does not, they will not cover.

Cowboys (+1) over BEARS

Chicago’s terrible run defense is too much to overcome.

SAINTS (-3) over Panthers

Despite how hot the Panthers are, I just think the Saints are too good at home and I don’t see Brees having two bad games in a row.