Week 9 NFL Picks

With the Redskins struggling mightily it is time for me to look elsewhere for football pleasure. Much as it was last year, most of this is derived from the failings of others. And while some might have pride in their division being the best, I truly enjoy the ineptitude of the NFC East.

The Cowboys loss to the Lions last week was great and took the sting out of watching the Redskins offense soil itself in the second half. It’s exciting to know that they can think of new ways to blow fourth quarter leads.

The Eagles explosive offense has totaled under 300 yards of total offense in each of the last two weeks and committed six turnovers in that span. Yes, a large chunk of that has to do with being forced to play Matt Barkley at quarterback for long periods of time, but still nice to see the Chip Kelly experiment slowed down.

And the Giants, although they’ve won two straight and may have figured out how to not turn the ball over every six minutes, they still have the second worst point differential in the league, worse than the Buccaneers.

In gambling news, I had my best performance of the season last week, but don’t worry I still missed my lock of the week by a substantial margin.

Last Week: 9-4
Guaranteed Loss of the Week (aka Lock of the Week): 1-7
Season: 52-66-2

Home team in CAPS

Bengals (-3) over DOLPHINS

Somehow this game opened as an even line. If I had been paying attention I would have bet actual money on it. I suppose you could take my confidence in the Bengals as a good sign that the Dolphins will win the game, but I don’t see it. The Dolphins have lost four straight and the Bengals have won four straight, I’m much less confident at three points, but still taking Cincinnati.

Falcons (+7.5) over PANTHERS

Just seems like too much respect for Carolina.

COWBOYS (-10.5) over Vikings

Dallas is certainly capable of beating bad teams by large margins and the Vikings qualify. Also, does anyone know who will be starting at QB for the Vikings? Better question, does it matter or does anyone care?

Saints (-6) over JETS

I don’t understand the Jets at all, they might somehow win this game, or they could lose by 30. Neither result would completely shock me.

Titans (-3) over RAMS

Is Jeff Fisher playing his old team a big deal? I don’t feel like anyone really cares, but maybe they do.

Chiefs (-3) over BILLS

Chargers (-1) over REDSKINS

Lock of the Week
That makes four straight road favorites I’ve picked. NOT A GOOD BETTING STRATEGY. Somehow I can’t stop myself though. At this point I'm using lock of the week as a jinx weapon, placing it on a game I do not want to go as I predict.

RAIDERS (-2.5) over Eagles

Philly is much better on the road than they are at home. With Foles under center instead of Barkley the offense should be able to move again. The Raiders had less than 100 yards passing last week. All signs the Eagles should win this game, yet I’m trusting my gut – a move which has repeatedly let me down time and time again.

SEAHAWKS (-16.5) over Buccaneers

The coach players love to play for against the coach every single player hates. I’m sure this will go well for Tampa.

BROWNS (+2.5) over Ravens

I had to stop taking road favorites, had to. In Jason Campbell we trust!

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Steelers
Remember the 2001 Patriots that didn’t ever really look that good, but kept winning games? I hope this team is not a repeat of that.

Colts (-2.5) over TEXANS

I lied! I’m taking another road favorite. What is wrong with me?

PACKERS (-10.5) over Bears

No way the Bears defense slows down the Packers enough to stay in this game.

Week 8 NFL Picks

I forgot/didn’t have time to write my picks up on Thursday, so whoops I guess, but I did pick the game on twitter, so I’m counting it, because just look at the traveshamockery that is my record.

Last week: 7-8
Lock of the Week/Shoe-in of the Week: 1-6
Season: 43-62-2

Home team in CAPS

Panthers (-7) over BUCCANEERS

Greg Schiano has become the most hated unsuccessful person in football I can remember in my lifetime really. Also congrats to Tampa, who has now quit on two coaches in three years, really impressive.

Jaguars (+16.5) over 49ers

The whole NFL games in London thing makes very little sense to me. I get the desire to create an international fan base, but I still think it’s stupid. First off, if they are trying to create a following in London, they could probably do better than giving them a Vikings game and a Jaguars game this season. No one in any country wants to watch either of those teams.

Then, in addition, they are giving them Jags games for four straight years. One, that sucks if you are a fan with tickets in Jacksonville as you lose out on a home game each year. Two, it sucks for the Jags, who basically lose their home field for one game a year. And three, what are they trying to do? It almost seems like they are trying to create a market for an NFL team based in London, which would be a horrendous idea. You can’t play a regular season with teams as far as 8 hours and 5,000 miles apart from one another, it will not work.

LIONS (-3) over Cowboys

My guess is that no NFC East team can win three straight games.

Giants (+5.5) over EAGLES

Luckily the Giants dug themselves a big enough hole that even if they play semi-competent football from here on out, they will not make the playoffs.

Browns (+7.5) over CHIEFS

I’m not sure if there is another quarterback quite like Jason Campbell. He was mediocre for years in Washington and never won much, yet nearly everyone in D.C. really wants him to do well now that he has moved on and is rooting for him to get a chance to succeed. I think it is safe to say he is better than Brandon Weeden anyways, go Jason!

SAINTS (-11) over Bills

The Saints cover spreads at home, it’s what they do.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Dolphins

Remember when Miami started the season 3-0 and people were talking about how they were a legit team? It’s okay if you don’t, because it seems so unlikely when you look at the Dolphins now.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Jets

I haven’t actually watched any Jets football this season. Is Geno Smith decent, lucky, good, irrelevant or what? I feel like I should be hearing a lot more about a rookie QB in New York than I am.

RAIDERS (+2.5) over Steelers

Despite two straight wins, I am not ready to believe in the Steelers in any way.

BRONCOS (-12) over Redskins

One win and Redskins fans start thinking they have a chance in Denver.

Falcons (+2.5) over CARDINALS

Pick that is guaranteed to lose
*Also known as Lock of the Week

I know the Falcons are down and injured, but the Cardinals still rely on Carson Palmer to drive their offense. Carson Palmer is still terrible.

Packers (-9) over VIKINGS

This week’s Minnesota QB carousel has landed on Christian Ponder. Always good when you try three guys and end up back on the first one.

Seahawks (-11) over RAMS

Here is my question. If you have so little faith in you backup QB that you immediately call Brett Favre after your starter goes down, then why didn’t you focus on improving the backup quarterback position before you needed him to play? Was the philosophy, “We’re fine with Kellen Clemens, unless he actually has to play of course. Then we are going to panic and try to find someone else to take his place.”

Week 7 - It can't get any worse

Last week my picks went from worthless to downright comically terrible. I challenge anyone to pick as poorly as I did. This kind of ineptitude is rarely achieved and you should all take a minute to appreciate it.

I’d say more about how terrible I am, but I’ve been doing a new thing this week called being really busy at work, so there is not enough time. As a result these write ups will be fairly short as well.

Last Week: 4-11
Lock of the Week: 1-5
Season: 36-54-2

Home team in CAPS

CARDINALS (+5.5) over Seahawks

I recently heard the NFL is considering expanding Thursday Night Football into a doubleheader. Great idea!

Do the players hate it? Yep.

How about the coaches? They also hate it.

Do fans enjoy it? No, not it all.

But do people still watch it and does it make money? Absolutely.

Let’s double it up then!

Patriots (-4) over JETS

Bostonians got two of the greatest come from behind wins in any sport on Sunday when the Pats beat the Saints at the last second and David Ortiz stepped on the hearts of the Tigers. If there is any sports area that hasn’t seen its share of good times and luck it’s Boston, good for those guys, they never win anything.

Chargers (-7.5) over JAGUARS

San Diego is pretty terrible on the road, but the Jags are getting less than 10 points. You have to take those opportunities when they are given to you.

CHIEFS (-6) over Texans

Shoe In of the Week

The lock wasn’t working, so we’re switching it up.

The Texans are starting Case Keenum. The one good thing I can say about Case Keenum is that the only year I played fantasy college football, he scored me a billion points. Another fun fact about Keenum (okay, the first fact was not fun) – when he proposed to his girlfriend he presented her a Bible engraved with her married name. Not saying that’s good or bad, just saying we are different people, Case and I.

LIONS (-3) over Bengals

Cincinnati is not good on the road, Detroit is good at home. I used these two pieces of complex statistical analysis to make my pick.

Bills (+8) over DOLPHINS

Don’t worry everyone, Thad Lewis should be able to play.

Bears (even) over REDSKINS

It’s gonna be sweet when the Redskins give a top 10 pick to the Rams.

Cowboys (+3) over EAGLES

My friends who are Eagles fans are pretty emphatic that there is no way Philly can beat the Cowboys. I tend to agree. Romo should carve up their secondary after not doing much against the Skins.

PANTHERS (-6) over Rams

I think this line is too high, but I am confident the Panthers will win. I am also fairly certain the Panthers can’t win close games. Therefore, they are going to win by a comfortable margin.

FALCONS (-7) over Buccaneers

Let’s not sleep on Tampa Bay when we talk about terrible teams.

49ers (-4) over TITANS

Does anyone know how the Titans have managed to be a respectable football team? They are somehow in the position that if Jake Locker comes back, they can contend for a playoff spot. Chris Johnson has been beyond horrendous. I guess it’s their defense, but who do they have on defense? Research indicates they have a good secondary, so good for them.

PACKERS (-10) over Browns

With the variety of completely unknown receivers the Packers will be trotting out this week it doesn’t make a lot of sense to expect them to cover a double digit spread against a team with a stout defense. But I trust Brandon Weeden will find a way.

Ravens (+1.5) over STEELERS

Despite the win, Pittsburgh is still pretty bad at football.

Broncos (-6.5) over COLTS

Let’s just all watch this game on mute – possibly while giving Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck lookalikes hand jobs.

Vikings (+3.5) over GIANTS

It is not that I believe Josh Freeman makes the Vikings a better team. It is much more that I believe the Giants should not be favored by more than a field goal against just about anyone.

2013 - Week 6

One reason I don’t think I’m a very good gambler is that I struggle with decisions of any magnitude. I never fully trust my instincts and typically find ways to argue both sides against each other, keeping me from truly believing in something 100% all the way.

When it comes to football I enter each week (at least this year) with few strong opinions and just hoping to get some things right. This keeps me from gambling large sums of money most of the time, which I guess is good, but makes one wonder what I’m doing writing NFL picks every week and why anyone would ever read it. Of course no one is coming here for real advice. And if you want, you can always pick against all of my picks (data supports this as a lucrative gambling method).

Last week: 6-8
Lock of the week: 1-4
Season: 32-43-2

Home team in CAPS

BEARS (-7.5) over Giants

I bet when the NFL Network made the Thursday night schedule they were super excited about this game. Two big market teams that had recent playoff success. Except now the Giants are 0-5 and just lost their starting running back who had not been producing and are forced to turn to an even less productive runner. The Bears defense stands a 50% chance of being the highest scoring fantasy player in the game.

Raiders (+9) over CHIEFS

With Pryor, the Raiders have put up a good fight in all their games and Kansas City is not the type of team to blow people out of the water, so I think this will be closer than the spread.

BUCS (+1) over Eagles

This could be a good bad game (but it will definitely be a bad game). The Eagles have one of the best offenses and the Bucs have one of the best defense, so that will be fun. But on the other side of the ball, the Bucs cannot move and the Eagles cannot stop anything, so something’s gotta give there. When in doubt, pick against the NFC East.

RAVENS (+3) over Packers

Green Bay is 0-2 on the road, so them being favored by three points doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

BROWNS (+2.5) over Lions

I want to keep riding the home underdog, but am I supposed to believe in Cleveland? Am I picking Cleveland? Fool, this will never work.

VIKINGS (-1.5) over Panthers

Minnesota could soon have a three-way mid-season quarterback controversy, which should be fun. Ponder, Cassel, and Freeman in a race for who can be the most mediocre without losing the game by himself!

Rams (+7.5) over TEXANS

I do not feel comfortable betting on the Rams two weeks in a row, but the Texans have not won a game by a significant margin this entire season and are getting close to turning to T.J. Yates. Hard to pick them to win by more than a touchdown.

JETS (-1.5) over Steelers

Lock of the Week
Looking at these teams on paper, there is no reason that the spread should be this close. Statistically, the Steelers have a worse offense and defense, yet this line says they would be favored on a neutral field? I’m not buying it, this line is still set on expectations, not reality.

Bengals (-7) over BILLS

The Bills STARTING quarterback is Thaddeus Lewis. He was on the practice squad less than a week ago.

SEAHAWKS (-13.5) over Titans

I still believe that the Seahawks at home are the best team in the NFL. I think they will win all games in Seattle by an average of 20 points. 13.5 is less than 20, ergo, my pick.

BRONCOS (-27.5) over Jaguars

I’m sure you are all aware of how large of a mismatch this game is, and if you weren't, you could look at the line and determine that is a game of historically vs. historically bad. It is just a stupid big line, but still I think the Broncos are the logical choice, which is absolutely insane. The best way to sum everything about these teams up is with this infographic from SB Nation.

49ERS (-10.5) over Cardinals

Three double-digit favorites and I’m picking them all. I’m sure nothing could possiblie go wrong.

PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Saints

There is a good chance this will be Gronk’s first game back for the Pats and it just so happens to be against the team with the current best tight end in the league in Jimmy Graham. I could see either guy (or both) having an “I’m the best” statement game.

Redskins (+5.5) over COWBOYS

My philosophy is if one of these two teams is ever favored by more than four points against the other, take the underdog (also the Skins have covered the last six spreads between the two).

Colts (-1.5) over CHARGERS

How big of a football fan would you have to be to choose Indianapolis as your home over San Diego? I can't really think of an amount that makes sense.

2013 - Week 5

First, to what everyone is worried about. I promise to not make any Congress or government shutdown jokes in my column this week. Just like those clowns in Congress promised to …. WHOA! Close one. #Politics!

As we enter week 5 of the season I have yet to be home for an entire Sunday and just watched football all day long. I’ve been close, but I have not been home from 1-8 yet on any day. And you know what? I haven’t missed it.

So my passion for football is waning and I rarely bet actual money on games anymore, but I think you should still read my picks because really, what else are you going to do? Be productive at your job? I doubt it.

Last week: 9-6
Lock of the week: 1-3
Season: 26-35-2

Home team in CAPS

Bills (+3.5) over BROWNS

As with most Thursday games, no one should watch this game. I may not watch another Thursday night game until the Redskins play on Nov. 7. My viewership of this game aside, somehow the winner will be 3-2. Yes, either the Buffalo Bills or Cleveland Browns will have a winning record.

TITANS (+3) over Chiefs

Oh right, Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting.

Chiefs (-3) over TITANS

Ravens (+3) over DOLPHINS

I finally decide to respect the Dolphins last week and they do what I had been waiting for them to do the first three weeks. My mistake Miami, you are who I thought you were.

RAMS (-11.5) over Jaguars

This line is silly. The Rams are NOT a good football team and yet they are favored by double-digit points because Jacksonville is just beyond bad. I’m not sure what line Vegas could make that would be big enough for me to place money on Jacksonville. I would pick them if they were given 20 points (again, this is to the Rams, a bad team), but I would not feel comfortable about it in any way.

At this point can’t Jacksonville just give in and sign Tim Tebow? While they are at it can they sign Brett Favre too? Just put those two guys out there and watch them “have fun” and “be leaders” and “know how to win.” After it doesn’t get much more football and America than Brett Favre and Tim Tebow.

Sure, I know what you are saying, no team runs two QBs at the same time. And one of these guys is too old and the other is not very good. But if anyone can make it work it is these two, right? I mean, they are winners. America! Jesus! Football! Gunslinging! Dedication! Tears! Playing the game the right way!

Patriots (+1) over BENGALS

Lock of the Week
The Bengals beat the Packers and then followed that up with a loss to the Browns. Marvin Lewis has never made sense. Maybe they’ll beat the Pats by 15, maybe they’ll get shut out. I don’t know. All I do know about the Bengals is that if they make the playoffs, they will lose in the first round.

Seahawks (-3) over COLTS

I’ll start by saying that I think the Seahawks have been the best team in the NFC to this point. They are unbeatable at home, I have no doubt in that, but I’m still not 100% sold on their ability on the road. They really should have lost last week in Houston, but they somehow stole that game. I would not be 100% shocked if they lost to the Colts. That said, the Seahawks are still 4-0 against the spread and I’ll keep picking them at least until they are 9-0 and favored in Atlanta.

PACKERS (-7) over Lions

Don’t bet on the Packers or the Lions. Do bet on the over (53.5 points).

BEARS (even) over Saints

Before we get caught up in how good the Saints have looked, let’s remember that they have played three out of four games at home. In their one game on the road they nearly lost to the train wreck that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Eagles (+2) over GIANTS

If the Giants can’t score on the Eagles, then it is all over for them. The last two weeks I've thought the Giants are gonna snap out of it and been burned. Do I still think that this week? Maybe a part of me, but I can in no way justify picking them again at this point (unless of course they were playing the Jags).

Panthers (-2) over CARDINALS

Chargers (-4) over RAIDERS

I choose not to write about these games. I feel good about my decision.

Broncos (-7.5) over COWBOYS

NFC East! 8-8 looking more and more like a division winning record.

49ERS (-6.5) over Texans

49er safety Donte Whitner has changed his name to Donte Hitner. This is like 5% funny, 2% cool, and 93% stupid, but I bet it gains him fame and makes him money, so I guess good work? Terrible joke time -Matt Schaub should change his name to Matt Inopportune Time to Throw an Interceptionaub.

FALCONS (-10) over Jets

Atlanta is 1-3 and desperately need to beat the crap out of someone to both make themselves feel better and to show that they are still a contender. Enter the New York Jets.