So I forgot to write my picks this week. Here they are listed just so they are recorded somewhere. The quest for .500 is going to come down to the wire.
Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 116-115-9
Lock of the Week: 7-8-1
Home team in CAPS
BILLS (-3) over Jets
Dolphins (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
Ravens (+2.5) over BENGALS
Browns (+10) over STEELERS
COLTS (+6.5) over Texans
TITANS (-4.5) over Jaguars
Eagles (+7) over GIANTS
Bears (-3) over LIONS
Packers (-3) over VIKINGS
Buccaneers (+5) over FALCONS
SAINTS (-4.5) over Panthers
BRONCOS (-16.5) over Chiefs
Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS
Cardinals (+16.5) over 49ERS
SEAHAWKS (-11) over Rams
REDSKINS (-3) over Cowboys
Pay Homage to Gamblor: Terrible, terrible football picks
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Week 16 NFL Picks
And in the 16th week the Lord said, let there be no Thursday Night Football.
With no football on Thursday night that should give me an extra day to make my picks, but there is a chance the world will end before then and I couldn’t bear to deprive you of both your existence and one last chance to read my mediocre NFL picks, tired jokes, and half-assed analysis. So it’s time to string together some picks for the second to last week of the regular season.
On the plus, I will end with a winning record if the world explodes, or reverses polarity, or releases the dogs on us, or the bees, or the dogs with bees in their mouth and when they bark they shoot bees at us; or whatever it is the Mayans think will happen. Of course in that case I can only assume these games will end up being played in whatever post-apocalyptic hell we find ourselves in on Sunday.
Last Week: 6-10
Season: 109-107-8
Lock of the Week: 7-8
Home team in CAPS
Falcons (-3.5) over LIONS
Sign of the apocalypse: The Lions lost to Ryan Lindley last week. No other argument is needed to pick against them.
Titans (+12.5) over PACKERS
Green Bay really doesn’t blow teams out; it’s just not something that they are into. They outgained the Bears by 201 yards and only won by eight.
PANTHERS (-8.5) over Raiders
Sign of the apocalypse 2: Carolina is favored by more than a touchdown AND they are the safer choice.
DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Bills
Sign of the apocalypse 3: Somehow Miami still has a chance to make the playoffs. It took a lot of playing with the playoff scenario generator for me to figure out how. But here it is, obviously the Dolphins have to win out (which means beating the Pats next week). Also, the Bengals have to lose out, Pittsburgh has to lose to Cleveland in Week 17 and the Jets must lose one of their two final games. Simple! They are practically in.
STEELERS (-3.5) over Bengals
Pittsburgh looks nothing like a playoff team right now, so obviously they’ll make the playoffs.
Patriots (-14.5) over JAGUARS
First reaction should be always bet on a double digit underdog at home. Then you look and see the Jags have lost five games at home by 17 points or more.
Colts (-7) over CHIEFS
Lock of the Week
The crazy thing about the Chiefs statistical awfulness – last year’s Rams were worse. Every time I see the Chiefs I think to myself, I don’t know if there has ever been a worse team, but it seems as if there was a team just as bad last year. I will say in the Chiefs favor that they are way better at turning the ball over than last year’s Rams were, so they’ve got that going for them.
Saints (+3) over COWBOYS
Let’s go wishful thinking! Show me last week’s Saints and not the Saints from the three weeks before that!
EAGLES (+6.5) over Redskins
Every Redskins fan instinct in my body says to be afraid, so that’s what I’m doing.
BUCCANEERS (-3) over Rams
Tampa can’t be as bad as they looked last week. Not sure anyone can be that bad (except the Chiefs).
Giants (-2.5) over RAVENS
Really want to pick the Ravens as a home underdog here, but don’t you just see the Giants somehow making the playoffs?
Vikings (+7.5) over TEXANS
Not ready to bet on anyone to beat Adrian Peterson by more than a touchdown right now. He has achieved some sort of demigod status for the moment.
Chargers (+2.5) over JETS
Greg McElroy is starting for the Jets and we are inching closer to seeing Tim Tebow cuss someone out.
Browns (+13) over BRONCOS
Do people in Cleveland still hate the Broncos for the AFC Championship in the 1980s? I would assume that they do.
CARDINALS (+5.5) over Bears
I know that Arizona is terrible and I know that the chances of Ryan Lindley winning back-to-back NFL games have to be about as good as the chances that I become a Lothario, but is there any reason to bet on the Bears right now?
SEAHAWKS (+1) over 49ers
Seattle is an absolute beast at home. They’ve beaten the Packers and Patriots and crushed everyone else they’ve played at CenturyLink Field; not betting against them now.
With no football on Thursday night that should give me an extra day to make my picks, but there is a chance the world will end before then and I couldn’t bear to deprive you of both your existence and one last chance to read my mediocre NFL picks, tired jokes, and half-assed analysis. So it’s time to string together some picks for the second to last week of the regular season.
Last Week: 6-10
Season: 109-107-8
Lock of the Week: 7-8
Home team in CAPS
Falcons (-3.5) over LIONS
Sign of the apocalypse: The Lions lost to Ryan Lindley last week. No other argument is needed to pick against them.
Titans (+12.5) over PACKERS
Green Bay really doesn’t blow teams out; it’s just not something that they are into. They outgained the Bears by 201 yards and only won by eight.
PANTHERS (-8.5) over Raiders
Sign of the apocalypse 2: Carolina is favored by more than a touchdown AND they are the safer choice.
DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Bills
Sign of the apocalypse 3: Somehow Miami still has a chance to make the playoffs. It took a lot of playing with the playoff scenario generator for me to figure out how. But here it is, obviously the Dolphins have to win out (which means beating the Pats next week). Also, the Bengals have to lose out, Pittsburgh has to lose to Cleveland in Week 17 and the Jets must lose one of their two final games. Simple! They are practically in.
STEELERS (-3.5) over Bengals
Pittsburgh looks nothing like a playoff team right now, so obviously they’ll make the playoffs.
Patriots (-14.5) over JAGUARS
First reaction should be always bet on a double digit underdog at home. Then you look and see the Jags have lost five games at home by 17 points or more.
Colts (-7) over CHIEFS
The crazy thing about the Chiefs statistical awfulness – last year’s Rams were worse. Every time I see the Chiefs I think to myself, I don’t know if there has ever been a worse team, but it seems as if there was a team just as bad last year. I will say in the Chiefs favor that they are way better at turning the ball over than last year’s Rams were, so they’ve got that going for them.
Saints (+3) over COWBOYS
Let’s go wishful thinking! Show me last week’s Saints and not the Saints from the three weeks before that!
EAGLES (+6.5) over Redskins
Every Redskins fan instinct in my body says to be afraid, so that’s what I’m doing.
BUCCANEERS (-3) over Rams
Tampa can’t be as bad as they looked last week. Not sure anyone can be that bad (except the Chiefs).
Giants (-2.5) over RAVENS
Really want to pick the Ravens as a home underdog here, but don’t you just see the Giants somehow making the playoffs?
Vikings (+7.5) over TEXANS
Not ready to bet on anyone to beat Adrian Peterson by more than a touchdown right now. He has achieved some sort of demigod status for the moment.
Chargers (+2.5) over JETS
Greg McElroy is starting for the Jets and we are inching closer to seeing Tim Tebow cuss someone out.
Browns (+13) over BRONCOS
Do people in Cleveland still hate the Broncos for the AFC Championship in the 1980s? I would assume that they do.
CARDINALS (+5.5) over Bears
I know that Arizona is terrible and I know that the chances of Ryan Lindley winning back-to-back NFL games have to be about as good as the chances that I become a Lothario, but is there any reason to bet on the Bears right now?
SEAHAWKS (+1) over 49ers
Seattle is an absolute beast at home. They’ve beaten the Packers and Patriots and crushed everyone else they’ve played at CenturyLink Field; not betting against them now.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Week 15 Picks
Well it only took 14 weeks, but I actually am interested in the NFL. I think my love of tournaments and thinking about different clinching and elimination scenarios will always draw me into any sport near playoff time. Obviously the Redskins being in the playoff race doesn’t hurt my interest either.
Of course as I get more interested and pay more attention, my picks seem to get worse. This is now two straight weeks with only five correct. At a time I looked destined to finish over .500, now I look like I might be as stupid as always.
Last Week: 5-10-1
Season: 103-97-8
Lock of the Week: 7-7
Home team in CAPS
Bengals (-5) over EAGLES
I refuse to believe the Eagles can look competent two weeks in a row.
Packers (-3) over BEARS
At one time this season I called the Bears the best team in the NFC. It seems a lot has changed since then. And I’ll keep saying it until it happens, but at some point the Packers passing attack has to get going again, right?
Giants (+1.5) over FALCONS
Does anyone believe in Atlanta? Also the Giants have looked really good in two of the last three weeks. Granted they did lose their only road game and the Falcons are undefeated at home, but I’m not talking myself out of this one, Giants.
Buccaneers (+3.5) over SAINTS
Both teams have lost three straight after looking like they both could make a playoff push, but the Saints have seemingly lost any semblance of an identity.
Vikings (+3) over RAMS
Are you betting against Adrian Peterson right now?
Redskins (-1.5) over BROWNS
As a Redskins fan I have deep deep fears about this game. Coming off wins against good teams to lose to a team that everyone thinks they should beat would be so classic Redskins, but maybe this team is something new and cool that we don’t even know about.
Jaguars (+7) over DOLPHINS
I can’t take the team that has lost five of its last six as a touchdown favorite, even against the Jaguars.
RAVENS (+2.5) over Broncos
Sure, the Broncos are hot and have won eight straight, but who have they beaten? Their best win over that stretch is Cincinnati. And I just don’t think the Ravens will lose three straight games. They’ll probably have a great game and everyone will say Ray Lewis is back and they changed offensive coordinators, watch out! But then come playoff time Joe Flacco will still be their quarterback and it won’t be enough.
TEXANS (-8.5) over Colts
I think this line is too high, but something tells me the Texans are going to make up for the complete embarrassment that was Monday night. Plus, they’ll be really happy to be home after three straight road games. I just see them dominating this one.
CHARGERS (-3) over Panthers
I’d really like to abstain on this game for about 1,000 reasons. Both teams are terrible to start with, and they both won last week. Yet, at the same time I could see either team finishing the season on a run to get people exciting and saying, see Cam Newton is still really good, they’ll have it next year. Or, maybe Norv can still coach ‘em up, let’s keep him around San Diego and sign him to an extension. Since the second possibility is more humorous to me, that’s what I’m going with.
BILLS (+5.5) over Seahawks
Still not sold on Seattle on the road, and this line is probably riding up because of their 58 point shut out of the Cardinals last week, but that was way more the Cardinals doing than it was the Seahawks.
Lions (-6) over CARDINALS
Lock of the Week
Any team who has had quarterback problems in the past decade can look at the Cardinals and feel better about their situation. Even the Chiefs are laughing at their complete lack of a suitable option at QB.
Steelers (-1.5) over COWBOYS
The more I look into this game the more I want to pick the Cowboys, so I’m just going to stop looking into it.
RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs
Avert your eyes!
PATRIOTS (-5.5) over 49ers
I know this line is bigger than it should be, but I can’t help myself. The Pats are an unstoppable juggernaut right now.
Jets (+1.5) over TITANS
Somehow the Jets might just sneak into the playoffs because the world does not make any sense.
Of course as I get more interested and pay more attention, my picks seem to get worse. This is now two straight weeks with only five correct. At a time I looked destined to finish over .500, now I look like I might be as stupid as always.
Last Week: 5-10-1
Season: 103-97-8
Lock of the Week: 7-7
Home team in CAPS
Bengals (-5) over EAGLES
I refuse to believe the Eagles can look competent two weeks in a row.
Packers (-3) over BEARS
At one time this season I called the Bears the best team in the NFC. It seems a lot has changed since then. And I’ll keep saying it until it happens, but at some point the Packers passing attack has to get going again, right?
Giants (+1.5) over FALCONS
Does anyone believe in Atlanta? Also the Giants have looked really good in two of the last three weeks. Granted they did lose their only road game and the Falcons are undefeated at home, but I’m not talking myself out of this one, Giants.
Buccaneers (+3.5) over SAINTS
Both teams have lost three straight after looking like they both could make a playoff push, but the Saints have seemingly lost any semblance of an identity.
Vikings (+3) over RAMS
Are you betting against Adrian Peterson right now?
Redskins (-1.5) over BROWNS
As a Redskins fan I have deep deep fears about this game. Coming off wins against good teams to lose to a team that everyone thinks they should beat would be so classic Redskins, but maybe this team is something new and cool that we don’t even know about.
Jaguars (+7) over DOLPHINS
I can’t take the team that has lost five of its last six as a touchdown favorite, even against the Jaguars.
RAVENS (+2.5) over Broncos
Sure, the Broncos are hot and have won eight straight, but who have they beaten? Their best win over that stretch is Cincinnati. And I just don’t think the Ravens will lose three straight games. They’ll probably have a great game and everyone will say Ray Lewis is back and they changed offensive coordinators, watch out! But then come playoff time Joe Flacco will still be their quarterback and it won’t be enough.
TEXANS (-8.5) over Colts
I think this line is too high, but something tells me the Texans are going to make up for the complete embarrassment that was Monday night. Plus, they’ll be really happy to be home after three straight road games. I just see them dominating this one.
CHARGERS (-3) over Panthers
I’d really like to abstain on this game for about 1,000 reasons. Both teams are terrible to start with, and they both won last week. Yet, at the same time I could see either team finishing the season on a run to get people exciting and saying, see Cam Newton is still really good, they’ll have it next year. Or, maybe Norv can still coach ‘em up, let’s keep him around San Diego and sign him to an extension. Since the second possibility is more humorous to me, that’s what I’m going with.
BILLS (+5.5) over Seahawks
Still not sold on Seattle on the road, and this line is probably riding up because of their 58 point shut out of the Cardinals last week, but that was way more the Cardinals doing than it was the Seahawks.
Lock of the Week
Any team who has had quarterback problems in the past decade can look at the Cardinals and feel better about their situation. Even the Chiefs are laughing at their complete lack of a suitable option at QB.
Steelers (-1.5) over COWBOYS
The more I look into this game the more I want to pick the Cowboys, so I’m just going to stop looking into it.
RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs
Avert your eyes!
PATRIOTS (-5.5) over 49ers
I know this line is bigger than it should be, but I can’t help myself. The Pats are an unstoppable juggernaut right now.
Jets (+1.5) over TITANS
Somehow the Jets might just sneak into the playoffs because the world does not make any sense.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Week 14 Picks
This season had been going really well for the casual gambler, so obviously a week like last week was inevitable. This is why I’ve stopped gambling with real money, well that, and the fact that I don’t have a real source of income.
Last Week: 5-11
Season: 98-87-7
Lock of the Week: 7-6
Home team in CAPS
Broncos (-10) over RAIDERS
When talking about the worst team in football, don’t forget about Oakland. They are as terrible as anyone. They will get all their missing running backs back on Thursday, but that will only make them slightly less terrible.
Ravens (+2.5) over REDSKINS
Start expecting the Redskins to win and they will disappoint you. Maybe this will change, but until it does I will always pick them to lose after they have inspired confidence.
Chiefs (+6.5) over BROWNS
Cleveland should never be favored by almost a touchdown. No exceptions.
STEELERS (-7) over Chargers
Big Ben is returning and no one can lose games quite like the Chargers.
COLTS (-5.5) over Titans
I can’t wait for the Colts to make the playoffs and then have to take on a good team on the road.
Jets (-2.5) over JAGUARS
The failure of the Tim Tebow experiment reached comical highs last week when Greg McElroy led the Jets to victory.
Bears (-3) over VIKINGS
Percy Harvin is made out of glass.
Falcons (-3.5) over PANTHERS
Apparently lots of NFL veterans don’t like Cam Newton and think he is a bit of a prima donna. File this under the least surprising news possible. Cam Newton exudes douchebag.
BUCCANEERS (-7.5) over Eagles
The only thing the Eagles have been able to do recently is run the ball, which is what the Bucs are best at stopping.
BILLS (-3) over Rams
It’s not the 49ers so I have to assume the Rams will struggle.
BENGALS (-3) over Cowboys
Last Week: 5-11
Season: 98-87-7
Lock of the Week: 7-6
Home team in CAPS
Broncos (-10) over RAIDERS
When talking about the worst team in football, don’t forget about Oakland. They are as terrible as anyone. They will get all their missing running backs back on Thursday, but that will only make them slightly less terrible.
Ravens (+2.5) over REDSKINS
Start expecting the Redskins to win and they will disappoint you. Maybe this will change, but until it does I will always pick them to lose after they have inspired confidence.
Chiefs (+6.5) over BROWNS
Cleveland should never be favored by almost a touchdown. No exceptions.
STEELERS (-7) over Chargers
Big Ben is returning and no one can lose games quite like the Chargers.
COLTS (-5.5) over Titans
I can’t wait for the Colts to make the playoffs and then have to take on a good team on the road.
Jets (-2.5) over JAGUARS
The failure of the Tim Tebow experiment reached comical highs last week when Greg McElroy led the Jets to victory.
Bears (-3) over VIKINGS
Percy Harvin is made out of glass.
Falcons (-3.5) over PANTHERS
Apparently lots of NFL veterans don’t like Cam Newton and think he is a bit of a prima donna. File this under the least surprising news possible. Cam Newton exudes douchebag.
BUCCANEERS (-7.5) over Eagles
The only thing the Eagles have been able to do recently is run the ball, which is what the Bucs are best at stopping.
BILLS (-3) over Rams
It’s not the 49ers so I have to assume the Rams will struggle.
BENGALS (-3) over Cowboys
Lock of the Week
Dallas let the Eagles score over 30 points, that can’t be a good sign for their defense.
Dolphins (+10) over 49ers
Out of principles, I’m not picking a team that went 0-1-1 against the Rams to cover a ten point spread.
GIANTS (-5) over Saints
I was wrong about the Saints. They will not be challenging for a playoff spot.
SEAHAWKS (-10) over Cardinals
Switching back to John Skelton! Watch out for the Cardinals!
PACKERS (-7) over Lions
Does it make it more impressive that Calvin Johnson might set the single season receiving yardage record on a team with absolutely nothing else good about it except for him? I say yes.
PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Texans
New England is stupid good right now, let’s all hope they don’t make the Super Bowl.
Dallas let the Eagles score over 30 points, that can’t be a good sign for their defense.
Dolphins (+10) over 49ers
Out of principles, I’m not picking a team that went 0-1-1 against the Rams to cover a ten point spread.
GIANTS (-5) over Saints
I was wrong about the Saints. They will not be challenging for a playoff spot.
SEAHAWKS (-10) over Cardinals
Switching back to John Skelton! Watch out for the Cardinals!
PACKERS (-7) over Lions
Does it make it more impressive that Calvin Johnson might set the single season receiving yardage record on a team with absolutely nothing else good about it except for him? I say yes.
PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Texans
New England is stupid good right now, let’s all hope they don’t make the Super Bowl.