Week 8 Picks

After two bad weeks it seems any early hopes I had of doing well this season are fading. This is why gambling is stupid.

This week I’m going to make my picks without doing any research into trends or how well I think teams matchup with one another, I’m bound to do better.

Last Week: 4-7-2
Season: 48-50-5
Lock of the Week: 4-3

Home team in CAPS

VIKINGS (-6?) over Buccaneers
To be honest I didn’t really make a pick before this game happened, but I’m fairly certain I would have taken Minnesota at home and been horrendously wrong.

RAMS (+7) over Patriots
Are the Patriots not very good? It seems sometimes they look Super Bowl bound and other times like they don’t deserve to make the playoffs. As such, seven points on the road sounds a bit high.

Colts (+3.5) over TITANS
I’m still fully convinced the Titans are terrible. They aren’t fooling me with these “wins” of theirs.

Jaguars (+15) over PACKERS
It seems like Green Bay is back as the offense is once again producing, but 15 points? Yes Jacksonville is garbage and will be without MJD, but well, I don’t really have a good case for the Jags. Just that 15 points is a ton.

Chargers (-3) over BROWNS

Lock of the Week
The Cleveland Browns sold for $1.05 billion. A billion dollars! For the Cleveland Browns! Also, you know things are going poorly when I decide to make a Norv Turner coached team my lock of the week. There are few people I'd rather have money on than Norv.



EAGLES (-3) over Falcons
By all accounts the Eagles shouldn’t be favored, yet they are. The only thing they have going for them is that Andy Reid is undefeated coming off bye weeks, but I don’t think that really matters too much. My thinking is if Vegas is favoring the Eagles by three here, they know better than I do and the Eagles are the pick.

Dolphins (+2) over JETS
So apparently everyone in New York wants to trade Tim Tebow now. What exactly did they expect from a backup QB? He was never going to get that many touches. Did the fans really want him to play as a running back? I think Tebow is a victim of his own unexplainable success. Last year was a Tim Tebow anomaly that is likely to never be duplicated.

LIONS (-2.5) over Seahawks
I don’t think the Lions are very good, but they can’t be 2-5 bad can they? Also Seattle is still not very good on the road.

Panthers (+7.5) over BEARS
For some reason I think this game will be close, I couldn’t tell you what that reason it, but it is what I think.

STEELERS (-4.5) over Redskins
The Steelers have a passing attack right? It’s almost as if all of their other injuries don’t matter as long as they can pass the ball. Sometimes the Redskins like to leave receivers open for 77-yard game-winning catches because they are really good against the pass.

CHIEFS (-1.5) over Raiders
Brady Quinn is the savior!

Giants (-2) over COWBOYS
No way the Giants lose to the Cowboys twice right? Of course I’m sure people said the same thing about the Giants vs. Redskins last year…

Saints (+6) over BRONCOS
No more interim interim coach for the Saints! I’m sure they’ll totally fix the defense now!

49ers (-7) over CARDINALS
The Cardinals were 4-0. Is it possible they end the season 4-12? I think so.

Week 7 NFL Picks

I meant to write two paragraphs about why fantasy football is annoying this year and it turned into four, so bear with me or skip ahead.

No one really likes it when anyone talks about fantasy football too much, but let me just say this – fantasy football is stupid this year. I’m not saying that because I’m bitter and my teams are awful, rather they are varying degrees of mediocre, but that’s the problem. Everyone’s teams are mediocre because so few players consistently perform week in and week out.

Yes, some quarterbacks are having good fantasy seasons, but outside of the QB spot it’s essentially a total crapshoot. Do you know how many WRs and RBs (and TEs) have scored over ten points every week this season? One – Arian Foster. Granted, that’s a special kind of consistency you can’t expect out of many players, but I would have guessed at least 3 or 4 guys were doing it.

More indicative of the inconsistent fantasy performance of most players this year is the play of Jamaal Charles. Charles is the fourth rated RB through six weeks of the season by Yahoo. His fantasy point totals in a standard scoring system with fractional points are 8.7, 2.2, 34.8, 19.1, 16.1, and 4.7. It used to be you could count on probably twelve to fifteen running backs to put up some sort of numbers every week. This year having a top level fantasy back doesn’t even guarantee you a five point performance in any given week.

As a result everyone’s team is the same and it’s not uncommon for a team to score 65 points one week and 115 the next week. The worst part of all of this is that it makes trading impossible. Statistically so many players are the same that you are just rolling the dice every week, so why not stick with the players already on your team? As a result this year is going to see a lot of fifth-seeded playoff teams win their league’s playoffs. Parity is good for the NFL, not so much for fantasy football.

Last Week: 5-9
Season: 44-43-3
Lock of the Week: 4-2

Home team in CAPS

49ERS (-7) over Seahawks
Seattle on the road is not the same team as Seattle at home. I also expect San Francisco to bounce back mightily from their loss. After their only other loss this season they responded with a 34-0 shutout of the Jets in New York.

BILLS (-3.5) over Titans
I didn’t see any of Tennessee’s win over the Steelers last week, but I’m going to assume two things. One, they are still awful; and two, any sort of non-awfulness they had was used up on Thursday.

VIKINGS (-6) over Cardinals
Are the injuries starting to become too much for the Cardinals? Or does Kevin Kolb getting injured just push them back to their original starter in John Skelton. Skelton has been pretty terrible in his two games this year and the Cardinals are also down their top two running backs, so I’m voting injuries are too much and they quickly fade.

COLTS (-2.5) over Browns
Stay away from this game because I do not understand Indianapolis. At home they beat the Vikings, lost to the Jaguars and then beat the Packers. They do not make sense. But, still overall they’ve shown ability at home and I can’t expect Cleveland to win two straight.

Ravens (+6.5) over TEXANS
Ordinarily I’d say the amount of injuries to the Ravens defense would doom them, but the Ravens defense wasn’t very good to begin with, so as long as their offense is intact they should still be one of the AFC’s better teams. I can’t imagine this line would have been as high without the injuries to Lewis and Webb, but they won’t make as much as a difference as it seems like they would.

RAMS (+5.5) over Packers
Rams are undefeated at home and winless on the road, plus they are 5-1 against the spread overall. The Packers are still far too inconsistent to trust; I’d still favor them to win this game, but by less than a FG.

Cowboys (-2) over PANTHERS
I hate to pick the Cowboys as road favorites (or really in any way at any place), but they are probably a bit better than it seems. Their three losses are on the road at Seattle and Baltimore and at home to the Bears; none of those are games many teams in the league would win. The Panthers meanwhile are less terrible than they were early, but still losing their games.

GIANTS (-5.5) over Redskins
When this line opened at seven, the Redskins were the pick, but now that it’s dropped down to five-and-a-half, it seems like the smart money is probably on New York. Sure, the Redskins beat the Giants twice last year, but that really has no bearing on this matchup. What’s important is that the Redskins are the worst team in the league against the pass and the Giants have the league’s third best passing offense.

BUCCANEERS (+3) over Saints
The Bucs beat the Saints at home last year even when New Orleans wasn’t terrible. Tampa proved last week that when playing a terrible defense they can put up points, so no reason they can’t score with the Saints this week.

Jets (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
I really like making fun of the Jets, but 10.5 is a lot of fucking points.

RAIDERS (-4) over Jaguars
The two lowest scoring teams in the league face off! It’s okay though because neither defense is very good either. The end zone will be open; can either team find a way to stumble into it? Find out on CBS!

BENGALS (+1.5) over Steelers

Lock of the Week
Pittsburgh is incredibly banged up (I know, third team I’ve written that about) and they always seem to struggle without Troy Polamalu. They will be missing far more than just him on Sunday. Throw in the fact that they are already 0-3 on the road this year with losses to both the terrible Raiders and terrible Titans, and they should lose this game outright.

BEARS (-6) over Lions
It’s possible that Chicago is the best team in football right now. I can’t imagine how that is possibly true with Jay Cutler as their QB, yet here we are.

Week 6 Picks

Already 0-1 this week. Good start, getting through the rest of this week's picks real quick as there are beers that aren’t going to drink themselves.

BROWNS (+1) over Bengals
Picking Cleveland goes against just about everything I stand for, yet here we are.

JETS (-3.5) over Colts
I’m not going to try to make any sense of Indianapolis. They beat the Packers and Vikings, but lost to the Jaguars? The Jets seem destined for .500, so I’ll take them to win this game.

BUCCANEERS (-4) over Chiefs
Despite both of these teams being horrible, they both seem to be good at one thing. Tampa Bay has the top ranked rushing defense and Kansas City has the second ranked rushing offense. The deciding factor here is that the Chiefs will be playing Brady Quinn at quarterback (if Matt Cassel was healthy the deciding factor would have been that the Chiefs were playing Matt Cassel at quarterback).

FALCONS (-9) over Raiders
After this week Atlanta will likely be 6-0, but keep in mind that’s 6-0 having played four games against the AFC West. It’s kind of like going undefeated arm wrestling the guy from “My Left Foot”.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Cowboys
Lock of the Week
I love to hate the Cowboys, but they are just plain boring this season.

Lions (+4) over EAGLES
If Detroit is going to make a move it has to be now.

DOLPHINS (-3.5) over Rams
Turns out Miami isn’t as terrible as it seemed like they would be.

Patriots (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS
As previously mentioned, forget about that 1-2 Patriots record, they are still annoyingly good.

CARDINALS (-4.5) over Bills
The fact that Buffalo doesn’t have the statistically worst defense in the league really says a lot about how terrible the Tennessee Titans are, because wow, Buffalo’s defense is TERRIBLE. The Cardinals showed last week that they are by no means great, but they are still good enough at home to beat a worthless Bills team by a touchdown.

Vikings (+2.5) over REDSKINS
The Redskins can’t seem to beat the Vikings even when they are bad, so now that they are all of the sudden good I don’t see how they can win this game.

Giants (+6.5) over 49ERS
New York’s offense is just too good for me to pick anyone to beat them by more than four points.

TEXANS (-3.5) over Packers
Seriously, what the F happened to Green Bay? They don’t have a different roster but they are suddenly much worse on offense. But fair warning to myself, the Texans haven’t really played anyone so who really knows if they are any good.

CHARGERS (-1.5) over Broncos
Wasn’t Denver’s defense really good last year? Wasn’t that how Tim Tebow won all those games and became Tim Tebow – NFL Unexplained Phenomenon of 2011? What happened to that defense?

Week 6 Thursday Game

Abbreviated post, will be finished on Friday:

Who had Week 5 in the when will RG3 suffer his inevitable first concussion of the season? Luckily it seems as if it was minor, but I have no confidence it won’t happen again. There is a reason Redskins fans hearts jump into their throats every single time Griffin takes off downfield.

Also, what the hell is with people’s feet this year? I don’t think I knew what a Lisfranc injury was or had even heard the term until last season, but in the last two weeks at least three players have been placed on the DL with a Lisfranc fracture. Santonio Holmes, Cedric Benson, and Carolina Panthers center Ryan Kalil all are out for the season. How does an injury like this go from unknown to seemingly the most common problem in the league? Is something wrong with shoes? Are people running over each other’s feet with cars? Is that what’s hot in the streets?

And I’m not going to pretend I’m a big baseball fan, but I have been watching as much of the Nationals and Orioles as I have been able to over the last month. So let me quickly say – playoff baseball is the worst. It seems like it is the only sport where a team can reach the playoffs and then appear as if they have no business being there. Plus I hate the Yankees and they always seem to win stupid games like Game 3 against the O’s. Anyways, football.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 39-35-3
Lock of the Week: 4-1

Steelers (-6.5) over TITANS

The Steelers are 0-2 on the road and always struggle without Troy Polamalu, but the Titans are simply terrible. On the plus side this is a Thursday night game I won’t feel the slightest bit bad about not watching at all.

Week 5 NFL Picks

Whoops! It happened; I completely forgot football was on Thursday. Thus I did not post my picks yesterday. Don’t worry, if you happen to think I’m cheating, I picked the Cardinals. I really hope the NFL Network is getting terrible ratings for these games, but I’m also sure they’re not because there are too many people who can never get enough football.

Sidenote: I haven’t watched a Thursday night game since the first one, are they still using that horrific song by Cee Lo as their theme music? I have to imagine that Goodie Mob Cee Lo would be sick to his stomach if he saw what 2012 Cee Lo Green has turned into (that said they are getting back together to at least some degree, but that's because everyone likes money). I get that Ice Cube, Ice Tea, and LL Cool J started the trend of turning from rapper into star of either terrible or mediocre mainstream TV and movies, but when the Cee Lo NBC sitcom comes out I might die a little inside.

Last Week: 9-5-1
Season: 32-28-3
Lock of the Week: 3-1

Home team in CAPS

Cardinals (-1.5) over RAMS
Don't know how I didn't see this one coming. I didn't respect the Cardinals, but I think I just kinda hoped they would somehow keep winning and get people believing in them.

Falcons (-3) over REDSKINS
My initial reaction was that this line was crazy and the Falcons should be favored by a touchdown. But in reality the one area Atlanta has problems is in stopping the run and that is one thing the Redskins do well. But the Redskins stand no chance of stopping a team with a legitimate passing attack unless they force a couple turnovers. The Falcons are good at protecting the ball and moving through the air; Washington won’t be able to keep up. Plus, D.C. already had its surprise victory of the week when Teddy won the presidents race on Wednesday.

STEELERS (-3.5) over Eagles
The bye week should really help Pittsburgh. The Steelers get Polamalu and Harrison back, plus they should see Mendenhall get some playing time. Also helps that Tomlin has won his last four games coming off byes and the Steelers are much better at home than on the road.

COLTS (+7) over Packers
Still haven’t seen enough from Green Bay to make them favorites by an entire touchdown against anyone but the worst of the worst; Indy is just slightly better than terrible.

Browns (+9) over GIANTS
The Browns seem terrible, a lack of any wins will do that, but they’ve played most of their games close and had chances to win. Plus the Giants have been less than impressive thus far, they’ll probably win but it’ll be closer than most think.

VIKINGS (-5.5) over Titans
I’ve gone back and forth on this, but I believe the Titans are the worst team in the NFL. They are across the board below average or worse at every aspect of the game.

BENGALS (+3.5) over Dolphins
I still think the Bengals are overrated and destined to miss the playoffs

Ravens (-6) over CHIEFS
Forced to choose, I think I’d rather watch a Food Network show in which these two cities competed. Maryland blue crabs vs. Kansas City BBQ seems much more appealing to me. Maybe this is a sign that I’m get old, or more likely fat.

Seahawks (+3) over PANTHERS

Bears (-5) over JAGUARS

This is not the year for 1995 NFL expansion teams named after large predatory cats.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Broncos

Lock of the Week
When the Patriots are 10-2 it will be very hard to remember that at one point they were 1-2 and had people questioning how the season would end up for them.



49ERS (-9.5) over Bills
I bet Chris Berman spends too long talking about this game. He will also make several references to when both teams were good in the early 90s. And obviously he’ll say something about the Buffalo Bills circling the wagons and give someone a stupid nickname like, “No use crying over” C.J. Spiller “ed Milk”.

Chargers (+3.5) over SAINTS
Oh, the Saints are still being favored in games. That’s cute.

Texans (-8.5) over JETS
It’s happening. The Tim Tebow train is gaining steam. If only Mark Sanchez were Jewish, then this story would have an extra crazy religious person angle that would bring out some really really terrible signs and comments.