NFL Week 4 Picks

Obviously the biggest story from Week 3 continues to be the refs, but luckily I don’t need to discuss that anymore. The real refs are coming back and all calls will be 100% correct because no one ever complained about the refs before this year.

Week 3 was the week the NFL made us all feel stupid for thinking we knew what was going on. Trying to draw trends out of only two games is probably a mistake to begin with and on top of that teams that looked as if they had no business winning came out of nowhere to win their Week 3 games outright. The Chiefs, Raiders, Jaguars and Titans all won. For the first two weeks they were four of the worst five teams in the league along with the Browns. (Trusty old Browns, you’ll always be terrible.) As a result I had my first losing week of the season and now feel as if every game is a complete toss up … I mean, read my picks, I’m very smart.

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 23-23-2
Lock of the Week: 2-1

Home team in CAPS

RAVENS (-12) over Browns
Simple analysis: The Ravens are very good and the Browns are very bad. What’s funny about the Ravens is that most people still think of them as an elite defensive team with an average offense. They happen to currently rank second in points and fourth in yards on offense and 27th in yards allowed on defense (15th in points allowed). They will torch a very bad Browns pass defense.

Patriots (-4) over BILLS
Lock of the Week
The Patriots have their first sub-.500 record since they were 0-1 in 2003, but they are so very close to being 3-0. There are two ways to look at this: One, it is just bad luck that’s keeping the Pats down; they are still one of the best teams in the league. Two, the Patriots mystique that caused them to somehow always win close games is officially dead and buried; they are just like everyone else now. Either way, the Bills will suffer the wrath of an angry Belichick on Sunday.

LIONS (-5) over Vikings
Congratulations to the Vikings for ruining survivor pools across the country by beating the 49ers last week, I still refuse to give them credit. The lines are kind of all over the place with Matthew Stafford’s status for Sunday uncertain (but he’s gonna play).

FALCONS (-7) over Panthers
After last Thursday’s performance people might slowly be realizing that the Panthers are in big trouble this season. They haven’t been able to do anything on offense except when they played the Saints, who seem incapable of playing bounty-less defense. Their rushing offense, which was third best in the NFL last season, is non-existent. Now they get to play the Falcons, who have looked like the best team in the league.

49ers (-4) over JETS
Despite the 49ers performance last week I still put my complete faith in them and expect them to win the Super Bowl.

Chargers (+1) over CHIEFS
So the Chiefs are favored in a game. Super. That’s cute. Here is why stats are stupid and I should stop looking at them - the Chiefs currently have the NFL’s top ranked offense in terms of yardage.

Seriously, he's completely in the open

TEXANS (-12) over Titans
The Texans have the best point differential in the league at +46, the Titans have the worst at -46. The Titans only won last week because they returned a punt, a kickoff, and a fumble for TDs. Their only two offensive TDs were on passes of 61 and 71 yards. Go ahead and put extra men in the secondary to stop the big play and there is no way they score. Chris Johnson is less effective at running the ball than opposing soldiers are at shooting John Rambo.

Seahawks (-2.5) over Rams
Is it possible that the NFC West is somehow the best division in football? I’ve decided that no, it’s not possible. Until the Rams can generate offense against someone other than the Redskins I’ll still believe that they are terrible.

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Dolphins
The Cardinals next four games are against the Dolphins, Rams, Bills, and Vikings. All conceivably very winnable, which means they could be 7-0. I really hope this happens because they then play the 49ers, Packers, and Falcons in consecutive weeks. If Arizona is favored in any of those games it is basically like free money.

BRONCOS (-6.5) over Raiders
As I go through these picks I realize that Week 3 did not actually teach me any lesson whatsoever. I’m still picking against the teams that I think are horrible, despite the fact that many of those teams won last week. But seriously, the Raiders, come on.

Bengals (-2.5) over JAGUARS
How many people are too many people to put in the box against Jacksonville? 10? 11? Is there really any chance Blaine Gabbert beats you passing the ball?

Saints (+7.5) over Packers
The Saints look as if they might have the worst rushing defense in NFL history and are possibly the worst team in the NFC at this point. They’ve lost to the Redskins, Panthers, and Chiefs; all of whom have not beaten anyone else. Yet, still I can’t go with the Packers here because the Saints will score at least 20 points and I don’t have any faith in Green Bay’s offense to cover by over a TD in that scenario.

Redskins (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS
Against my better judgment I keep picking the Redskins. The Bucs are 3-0 against the spread, but that’s just because they’ve been underdogs every week. This game will be close, as nearly every game either of these teams play this year will be, so I’ll take the points. All things considered it’s more fun to watch the Redskins lose close games with a lot of offense this season than it has been to watch them lose close games with a lot of defense in past seasons.

EAGLES (-2) over Giants
The Giants offense has looked good the past two weeks, but keep in mind that they have only beaten the Bucs and Panthers. Also, there is no way the Eagles can continue with the astonishing rate at which they have been turning the ball over.

Bears (+3.5) over COWBOYS
Perhaps the two biggest head case teams in the NFL. Either one can play well enough to beat anyone, but both teams also have the capability of completely shutting down. I’d love to see a battle between bad Tony Romo and bad Jay Cutler. I say there would be more screaming and blame deflection from Cutler than tears and hanging his head from Romo, but it’d be close.

Week 3 Picks

Look what happens. I don’t watch any Week 1 games and officiating is a non-issue, the Redskins win, summer is still in full swing everyone’s happy. In Week 2, I made the mistake of watching the games and the refs ruined just about every game, the Redskins lost in an annoying manner, it started getting cold and I assume everyone is just a little bit more depressed. Football, I hate you (I’ll see you on Sunday).

The real big issue from last week was the refs. They basically decided to make their own rules regarding illegal contact and pass interference, they didn’t fully grasp the challenge system, and they exerted no control over the games (you know it gets bad when Cortland Finnegan is praising the replacement refs – that would basically be like AIDS complimenting what a good job replacement condoms are doing). And yet still the NFL is going Taylor Swift all over the refs and sticking by their ‘We are never ever ever ever getting back together’ stance.

Last Week: 7-7-2
Season: 17-13-2
Lock of the Week: 2-0

Home team in CAPS

Giants (+2.5) over PANTHERS
I almost forgot about this game again. I was all set to sit down and watch some sort of horrible movie and fall asleep on Thursday afternoon before realizing this game was today and I needed to get my picks out. Of course ‘needed’ is a strong word as maybe 30 people actually read this. Anyways, not ready to favor the Panthers here yet. Sure, they beat the Saints, but so did the Redskins and they didn’t exactly follow that up by proving to be a powerhouse.

Rams (+7.5) over BEARS

"I'm a huge baby"

The Rams are… not terrible. That’s the compliment I’m willing to give them at this point in the season. It will be interesting to see what they do in their first game against a real defense. I’ll obviously be pulling for them just because it increases the chance Jay Cutler will hit one of his offensive linemen in the back with a chair during a huddle.

Buccaneers (+7.5) over COWBOYS
The same Cowboys that looked like shit against the Seahawks last week right? Tony Romo over the Bucs team that has shown it knows how to create turnovers? Um, no thanks.

49ers (-7) over VIKINGS
“Take this down. My name is Jeff Briggs, and the San Francisco 49ers are the motherfucking truth.”

Lions (-3.5) over TITANS
While the 49ers might be the truth the Titans are the opposite of that, the lie? The false? Whatever it is, they are terrible. CJ2K has 21 yards on 19 carries. They rank last in rushing yards and third to last in rushing yards allowed.

REDSKINS (-3) over Bengals
There will almost assuredly by over 600 yards of passing in this game. The Bengals let Brandon Weeden go off on them and the Redskins defense lost two of its best players (Carriker and Orakpo) for the season and already sucked before that.

Jets (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
The Dolphins beat the Raiders and are now favored in a game. This is not the Raiders from last year that was a decent team; the Dolphins do not deserve credit for that win. Miami does tend to play the Jets close, but I’m taking the team that has proved basically nothing over the team that has proved absolutely nothing.

SAINTS (-9) over Chiefs
How bad must Kansas City be for them to be nine-point-underdogs against a 0-2 team and for me to not consider taking them for even one second?

Bills (-3) over BROWNS
Ugh, pass.

COLTS (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars have a ridiculously easy schedule and could still finish with less than two wins on the season.

CARDINALS (+3.5) over Eagles
I understand not giving the Cardinals any respect. I certainly didn’t give them any heading into last week, but it’s hard to make a 2-0 home team that just beat the Patriots in New England an underdog by more than a field goal.

Falcons (+3) over CHARGERS
These Chargers are already filling the role they fill best. Beat up on terrible opponents, get people thinking you are good, and then lose when you play a team that actually understands what a football is and how to use one.

BRONCOS (+2) over Texans
I do think Houston is good, one of the top teams in the AFC, but like San Diego they have only played against garbage and warmed up garbage. They are getting too much respect here.

Steelers (+4) over RAIDERS
Lock of the Week
Oh the Raiders. They were good last year so naturally they made the decision to fire everyone involved, change their scheme from something that was working and look like those Raiders teams from 2003-2009 that were a never ending source of comedy. By the way, if you selected Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson with the first two picks of your fantasy draft, you have my permission to chew your own toes off.


RAVENS (-3) push Patriots
The last time either of these teams had a losing record was Week 6 of the 2008 season, yet whoever loses this game will fall to 1-2. Oh, and that’s right, I’m calling for this game to be a push. The Ravens will be three, they win by two or four it will be a loss for me.

Packers (-3) over SEAHAWKS
It’s slightly possible that the Seahawks are for real and a force at home, but I’m not ready to give the Packers so few points. The Green Bay offense has looked slow and confused, either they get it going this game or it becomes a real issue. (I actually predict both in the long run, they’ll show up here but their offense is not going to be what it was in the past. It appears they miss Joe Philbin.)

Week 2 Picks

The NFL, who has never heard the phrase ‘too much of a good thing’, has decided to jam Thursday Night Football down our throats all year this season. That’s right every week there is a Thursday night game, and every week I will probably realize this fact on Wednesday and get mad. I would love to watch the Packers and Bears play, but I’d like to watch it on Sunday, with the rest of football.

Remember when Thanksgiving was special because of Thursday football? Well, never again. The NFL is trying to kill Thanksgiving. Don’t be surprised when Roger Goodell comes to your Thanksgiving dinner, knocks your table over and shits in the turkey. That’s basically what he’s already done.

Sorry, I mean, enjoy this Bears Packers game tonight!

As far as Week 1 goes, I got off to a good start and it appears that RG3 might be the savior of DC after all. Sure the Redskins won their opening game the last two seasons as well, but this is different, right?

Last Week: 10-6 
Lock of the Week: 1-0 
Season: 10-6

Home Team in CAPS

PACKERS (-5) over Bears 
I really do think that the Packers will be worse and the Bears significantly better this year as compared to last, but I just can’t envision the Packers starting 0-2. The Packers haven’t lost at home to Chicago since 2007, the end of the Brett Favre era.

Buccaneers (+7) over GIANTS 
2008 Bucs: 9-7. 2009 Bucs: 3-13. 2010 Bucs: 10-6. 2011 Bucs: 4-12. 2012 Bucs: something better? The Bucs are not a great team, they aren’t even a very good team, but somehow they will find a way to be around .500 on the year. Then next year they will be terrible. The Giants meanwhile couldn’t stop anything against the Cowboys last week, so seven points is just too much here.

PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Cardinals 
This is a lot of points for this early in the season, but it turn out the Patriots look really good again. After the first week they are the top ranked offense and defense. The level of consistency displayed in New England is unfair to fans of every other team. I think the Cardinals should allowed to play both John Skelton and Kevin Kolb at the same time and get two balls to play with; they still would generate less offense than New England.

Vikings (-1) over COLTS 
Somehow the Vikings might start the season 2-0, such is the advantage of playing against the AFC South.

Saints (-2.5) over PANTHERS 
The Panthers rushed the ball 13 times for 10 yards last week. They are going to need a much more dynamic attack to have a chance against the Saints, who may have lost last week but still put 32 points on the board.

BILLS (-3) over Chiefs 
Two teams firmly in the fight for least impressive Week 1 performance and mascot that was most abused by 19th century white Americans. I’m giving a slight edge to Buffalo based on… I don’t know, let’s say home field.

Ravens (+2.5) over EAGLES
Lock of the Week 

I had to check this spread like three times. Sure, the Eagles are at home but I don’t understand how they can be favored against the Ravens. They couldn’t figure out the Browns defense and we are to believe that they’ll handle the Ravens with no problem? I'll tell you what I'd do if I were GM of the Eagles. I'd hire an assistant coach who has only one job, constantly remind Andy Reid that he is allowed to call run plays. 56 pass attempts when they were averaging five yards per carry is unreal. And yes, Vick still makes me scared of making this pick my lock.

Raiders (-2.5) over DOLPHINS 
The Dolphins appeared to be just as bad at football on CBS as they looked to be on HBO.

Browns (+7) over BENGALS 
The Bengals are not unlike the Bucs, only off by one year. 2008: 4-11-1, 2009: 10-6, 2010: 4-12, 2011: 9-7. Seems to me like they are due for a four win season, you can’t fight meaningless patterns supported only be a very small amount of data points.

Texans (-7) over JAGUARS 
When do we think the Texans will have the AFC South clinched? Will it be before or after the 49ers clinch the NFC West? Both can probably do it in 12 weeks. The talent gap between Houston and the rest of the division is cavernous.

Cowboys (-3) over SEAHAWKS 
I hope everyone is ready for obnoxious Cowboys fans to come out of the woodwork after a 2-0 start.

Redskins (-3) over RAMS 
If this spread were even a half point higher I’d take the Rams. As a Redskins fan, St. Louis frightens me, they seem to always play the Redskins close if not beat them. Plus, nothing would be more Redskins than beating the Saints, getting everyone excited, and then shitting the bed against the Rams.

Jets (+5.5) over STEELERS 
Five-and-a-half is just a little bit high for my tastes. The Jets showed they weren’t as terrible as people thought they were and these two tend to play close games in recently history. Oh and just because we don't want to forget about him and have him fall of the media map - Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow.

CHARGERS (-6) over Titans 
That was quick; it took one week from Antonio Gates to go from finally 100% healthy to questionable, which is where I imagine he’ll stay the rest of the year ruining fantasy teams across the land. They’ll still win this game though because the Titans are cooked. Say goodbye to Chris Johnson ever being a good RB again.

49ERS (-6.5) over Lions 
In one game that I didn’t even watch the 49ers turned me from a skeptic into a believer. It would appear the lesson from last week is that the Harbaugh brothers both really know how to coach. The Lions on the other hand may be the team headed for a letdown. A fun side bet for this game would be how many times they will mention Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz botched handshake/yelling match from last season. The over/under is set at 3,000.

FALCONS (-3) over Broncos 
For some reason I see this Falcons team head to 12 wins and another early playoff exit.

Week 1 NFL Picks

It’s a new season and Gamblor has moved homes. I’ve gone from a professional website to a very basic cookie cutter blogger.com format (expect the look and feel to change through the year until I find something decent). The primary reason is that I’m no longer employed, which of course means the accuracy of my picks is even more important because I can’t afford not to win.

Now, let’s move on to the NFL season that I seem to be completely indifferent towards! I barely watched the opening game between the Cowboys and Giants and am not particularly excited for any of the upcoming season. I’ll be missing the first Sunday of games and this doesn’t bother me at all. In other years I’d be worried all day about what was happening and perhaps try to listen to the games on the radio, but not this year. This year I don’t particularly care. 

I think the Redskins have officially beaten me to the point of submission. I should probably be excited about the start of the RG3 era, more excited than I have been in years. But I have no faith in the Redskins coaching staff, the talent around him, and most importantly the offensive line. Good thing they traded away their first round draft picks for the next 27 years, they wouldn’t want to build an entire team of talented players. 

Oh, I also just watched Two for the Money, which made me never want to gamble on sports. Now pay attention to the football picks of an unmotivated, uninformed man! 

Last Season: 119-127-10 

Home Team in CAPS


GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys

That’s right, I’m 0-1 before my first round of picks have even been published. I dare anyone to fail with that unprecedented level of efficiency. For some reason I thought the Giants would be more prepared than the Cowboys or that we’d at least see another Tony Romo fourth quarter meltdown, but it wasn’t meant to be.

BEARS (-10) over Colts

Ten points is a lot, but I’ll take my chances against a rookie QB on the road in Chicago.

Eagles (-8.5) over BROWNS

The Browns are terrible. Their two most important players on offense will be rookies, and quick name me the top Browns wide receiver. Did you come up with Greg Little? Shut up, no you didn’t stop lying, no one knows who Greg Little is.

JETS (-3) over Bills

I know the Jets were terrible during the preseason, but the Bills were almost as bad and are still the same Bills who lost eight of their last nine games last season.  No matter what happens I’m ready for some classic overreactions about the Jets. When will Tebow chants start? The first three and out? I’m ready for the Lord’s Force.

SAINTS (-7) over Redskins

I think my overwhelming pessimism regarding the Redskins is well established, but I’ll just clarify. Rookie QB on the road with no O-line against a team that will be super eager to show it can still win without a bounty system in place equals blow out.

Patriots (-5.5) over TITANS
Lock of the Week

The last time these two teams played the Patriots won 59-0. Sure that was in 2009, but convince me the Titans have gotten 50 points better. Yeah, sure they aren’t relying on the amazing duo of Vince Young or Kerry Collins anymore and that might be worth 35 points, but not 50.

Jaguars (+4) over VIKINGS

What an absolutely terrible game. Both teams are starting second-year QBs who weren’t exactly great last year and both will not have their all-pro RBs starting the game. The Jaguars at least had a decent defense last year while the Vikings were all-around terrible. I have no desire to pick Blaine Gabbert to cover a spread, but the game will probably be 3-0 so either way Jacksonville covers.

TEXANS (-12) over Dolphins

The Dolphins looked helpless on Hard Knocks. I really can’t imagine the bland, even-keel, ‘come on guys we have to do a lot better’ speeches Joe Philbin will be firing up the locker room with after this one.

LIONS (-7) over Rams

I do think Jeff Fisher will make the Rams better, but there is a long way between better and good. Sure, Two and a Half Men was ‘better’ with Charlie Sheen but that doesn’t mean it was good. Better than terrible is still really bad.

Falcons (-3) over CHIEFS

The Chiefs best chance to win games will be rushing the ball 68 times. Not a good sign.

PACKERS (-5) over 49ers

The 49ers have to be due for a down year right? No way they can replicate what happened last year.

BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Panthers

Remember at the end of last year how everyone thought Josh Freeman was going to be the next great QB and the Bucs were poised for a run at the NFC South crown? Well, 2012 Panthers fans might want to study up on those 2011 Bucs.

CARDINALS (+2.5) over Seahawks

I realize the Cardinals are awful and have John Skelton at QB, but it’s not like the Seahawks are great. They certainly aren’t a team that should be favored on the road by any means.

Steelers (+1.5) over BRONCOS

If Peyton Manning was just horrendous this year what would that do to his legacy? It’d end all discussions about who was better between him and Brady right? A bad game for the Broncos and we might start hearing about how they should have never let go of the Lord’s Force.

RAVENS (-6) over Bengals

The Bengals seem to alternate between good and terrible. They made the playoffs last year so it’s time for a round of terrible.

Chargers (+1) over RAIDERS

Darren McFadden started to break out last year when the Raiders went away from zone blocking. Of course this being the Raiders this year they are back to a zone blocking scheme. Al Davis is clearly still somehow in charge.