Week 17 quick picks

So I forgot to write my picks this week. Here they are listed just so they are recorded somewhere. The quest for .500 is going to come down to the wire.

Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 116-115-9
Lock of the Week: 7-8-1

Home team in CAPS

BILLS (-3) over Jets
Dolphins (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
Ravens (+2.5) over BENGALS
Browns (+10) over STEELERS
COLTS (+6.5) over Texans
TITANS (-4.5) over Jaguars
Eagles (+7) over GIANTS
Bears (-3) over LIONS
Packers (-3) over VIKINGS
Buccaneers (+5) over FALCONS
SAINTS (-4.5) over Panthers
BRONCOS (-16.5) over Chiefs
Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS
Cardinals (+16.5) over 49ERS
SEAHAWKS (-11) over Rams
REDSKINS (-3) over Cowboys

Week 16 NFL Picks

And in the 16th week the Lord said, let there be no Thursday Night Football.

With no football on Thursday night that should give me an extra day to make my picks, but there is a chance the world will end before then and I couldn’t bear to deprive you of both your existence and one last chance to read my mediocre NFL picks, tired jokes, and half-assed analysis. So it’s time to string together some picks for the second to last week of the regular season.

On the plus, I will end with a winning record if the world explodes, or reverses polarity, or releases the dogs on us, or the bees, or the dogs with bees in their mouth and when they bark they shoot bees at us; or whatever it is the Mayans think will happen. Of course in that case I can only assume these games will end up being played in whatever post-apocalyptic hell we find ourselves in on Sunday.

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 109-107-8
Lock of the Week: 7-8

Home team in CAPS

Falcons (-3.5) over LIONS
Sign of the apocalypse: The Lions lost to Ryan Lindley last week. No other argument is needed to pick against them.

Titans (+12.5) over PACKERS
Green Bay really doesn’t blow teams out; it’s just not something that they are into. They outgained the Bears by 201 yards and only won by eight.

PANTHERS (-8.5) over Raiders
Sign of the apocalypse 2: Carolina is favored by more than a touchdown AND they are the safer choice.

DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Bills
Sign of the apocalypse 3: Somehow Miami still has a chance to make the playoffs. It took a lot of playing with the playoff scenario generator for me to figure out how. But here it is, obviously the Dolphins have to win out (which means beating the Pats next week). Also, the Bengals have to lose out, Pittsburgh has to lose to Cleveland in Week 17 and the Jets must lose one of their two final games. Simple! They are practically in.

STEELERS (-3.5) over Bengals
Pittsburgh looks nothing like a playoff team right now, so obviously they’ll make the playoffs.

Patriots (-14.5) over JAGUARS
First reaction should be always bet on a double digit underdog at home. Then you look and see the Jags have lost five games at home by 17 points or more.

Colts (-7) over CHIEFS

Lock of the Week
The crazy thing about the Chiefs statistical awfulness – last year’s Rams were worse. Every time I see the Chiefs I think to myself, I don’t know if there has ever been a worse team, but it seems as if there was a team just as bad last year. I will say in the Chiefs favor that they are way better at turning the ball over than last year’s Rams were, so they’ve got that going for them.

Saints (+3) over COWBOYS
Let’s go wishful thinking! Show me last week’s Saints and not the Saints from the three weeks before that!

EAGLES (+6.5) over Redskins
Every Redskins fan instinct in my body says to be afraid, so that’s what I’m doing.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Rams
Tampa can’t be as bad as they looked last week. Not sure anyone can be that bad (except the Chiefs).

Giants (-2.5) over RAVENS
Really want to pick the Ravens as a home underdog here, but don’t you just see the Giants somehow making the playoffs?

Vikings (+7.5) over TEXANS
Not ready to bet on anyone to beat Adrian Peterson by more than a touchdown right now. He has achieved some sort of demigod status for the moment.

Chargers (+2.5) over JETS
Greg McElroy is starting for the Jets and we are inching closer to seeing Tim Tebow cuss someone out.

Browns (+13) over BRONCOS
Do people in Cleveland still hate the Broncos for the AFC Championship in the 1980s? I would assume that they do.

CARDINALS (+5.5) over Bears
I know that Arizona is terrible and I know that the chances of Ryan Lindley winning back-to-back NFL games have to be about as good as the chances that I become a Lothario, but is there any reason to bet on the Bears right now?

SEAHAWKS (+1) over 49ers
Seattle is an absolute beast at home. They’ve beaten the Packers and Patriots and crushed everyone else they’ve played at CenturyLink Field; not betting against them now.

Week 15 Picks

Well it only took 14 weeks, but I actually am interested in the NFL. I think my love of tournaments and thinking about different clinching and elimination scenarios will always draw me into any sport near playoff time. Obviously the Redskins being in the playoff race doesn’t hurt my interest either.

Of course as I get more interested and pay more attention, my picks seem to get worse. This is now two straight weeks with only five correct. At a time I looked destined to finish over .500, now I look like I might be as stupid as always.

Last Week: 5-10-1
Season: 103-97-8
Lock of the Week: 7-7

Home team in CAPS

Bengals (-5) over EAGLES
I refuse to believe the Eagles can look competent two weeks in a row.

Packers (-3) over BEARS
At one time this season I called the Bears the best team in the NFC. It seems a lot has changed since then. And I’ll keep saying it until it happens, but at some point the Packers passing attack has to get going again, right?

Giants (+1.5) over FALCONS
Does anyone believe in Atlanta? Also the Giants have looked really good in two of the last three weeks. Granted they did lose their only road game and the Falcons are undefeated at home, but I’m not talking myself out of this one, Giants.

Buccaneers (+3.5) over SAINTS
Both teams have lost three straight after looking like they both could make a playoff push, but the Saints have seemingly lost any semblance of an identity.

Vikings (+3) over RAMS
Are you betting against Adrian Peterson right now?

Redskins (-1.5) over BROWNS
As a Redskins fan I have deep deep fears about this game. Coming off wins against good teams to lose to a team that everyone thinks they should beat would be so classic Redskins, but maybe this team is something new and cool that we don’t even know about.

Jaguars (+7) over DOLPHINS
I can’t take the team that has lost five of its last six as a touchdown favorite, even against the Jaguars.

RAVENS (+2.5) over Broncos
Sure, the Broncos are hot and have won eight straight, but who have they beaten? Their best win over that stretch is Cincinnati. And I just don’t think the Ravens will lose three straight games. They’ll probably have a great game and everyone will say Ray Lewis is back and they changed offensive coordinators, watch out! But then come playoff time Joe Flacco will still be their quarterback and it won’t be enough.

TEXANS (-8.5) over Colts
I think this line is too high, but something tells me the Texans are going to make up for the complete embarrassment that was Monday night. Plus, they’ll be really happy to be home after three straight road games. I just see them dominating this one.

CHARGERS (-3) over Panthers
I’d really like to abstain on this game for about 1,000 reasons. Both teams are terrible to start with, and they both won last week. Yet, at the same time I could see either team finishing the season on a run to get people exciting and saying, see Cam Newton is still really good, they’ll have it next year. Or, maybe Norv can still coach ‘em up, let’s keep him around San Diego and sign him to an extension. Since the second possibility is more humorous to me, that’s what I’m going with.

BILLS (+5.5) over Seahawks
Still not sold on Seattle on the road, and this line is probably riding up because of their 58 point shut out of the Cardinals last week, but that was way more the Cardinals doing than it was the Seahawks.

Lions (-6) over CARDINALS
Lock of the Week
Any team who has had quarterback problems in the past decade can look at the Cardinals and feel better about their situation. Even the Chiefs are laughing at their complete lack of a suitable option at QB.

Steelers (-1.5) over COWBOYS
The more I look into this game the more I want to pick the Cowboys, so I’m just going to stop looking into it.

RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs
Avert your eyes!

PATRIOTS (-5.5) over 49ers
I know this line is bigger than it should be, but I can’t help myself. The Pats are an unstoppable juggernaut right now.

Jets (+1.5) over TITANS
Somehow the Jets might just sneak into the playoffs because the world does not make any sense.

Week 14 Picks

This season had been going really well for the casual gambler, so obviously a week like last week was inevitable. This is why I’ve stopped gambling with real money, well that, and the fact that I don’t have a real source of income.

Last Week: 5-11
Season: 98-87-7
Lock of the Week: 7-6

Home team in CAPS

Broncos (-10) over RAIDERS
When talking about the worst team in football, don’t forget about Oakland. They are as terrible as anyone. They will get all their missing running backs back on Thursday, but that will only make them slightly less terrible.

Ravens (+2.5) over REDSKINS
Start expecting the Redskins to win and they will disappoint you. Maybe this will change, but until it does I will always pick them to lose after they have inspired confidence.

Chiefs (+6.5) over BROWNS
Cleveland should never be favored by almost a touchdown. No exceptions.

STEELERS (-7) over Chargers
Big Ben is returning and no one can lose games quite like the Chargers.

COLTS (-5.5) over Titans
I can’t wait for the Colts to make the playoffs and then have to take on a good team on the road.

Jets (-2.5) over JAGUARS
The failure of the Tim Tebow experiment reached comical highs last week when Greg McElroy led the Jets to victory.

Bears (-3) over VIKINGS
Percy Harvin is made out of glass.

Falcons (-3.5) over PANTHERS
Apparently lots of NFL veterans don’t like Cam Newton and think he is a bit of a prima donna. File this under the least surprising news possible. Cam Newton exudes douchebag.

BUCCANEERS (-7.5) over Eagles
The only thing the Eagles have been able to do recently is run the ball, which is what the Bucs are best at stopping.

BILLS (-3) over Rams
It’s not the 49ers so I have to assume the Rams will struggle.

BENGALS (-3) over Cowboys 

Lock of the Week
Dallas let the Eagles score over 30 points, that can’t be a good sign for their defense.

Dolphins (+10) over 49ers
Out of principles, I’m not picking a team that went 0-1-1 against the Rams to cover a ten point spread.

GIANTS (-5) over Saints
I was wrong about the Saints. They will not be challenging for a playoff spot.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Cardinals
Switching back to John Skelton! Watch out for the Cardinals!

PACKERS (-7) over Lions
Does it make it more impressive that Calvin Johnson might set the single season receiving yardage record on a team with absolutely nothing else good about it except for him? I say yes.

PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Texans
New England is stupid good right now, let’s all hope they don’t make the Super Bowl.

Week 13 Picks

My head hurts so I’m just going to get right into the picks this week.

Last Week: 8-6-2
Season: 93-76-7
Lock of the Week: 7-5

Home team in CAPS

Saints (+3.5) over FALCONS
I haven’t given up on my belief that the Saints are still good enough to make a playoff push. I probably should, but I haven’t.

BEARS (-3.5) over Seahawks
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Never take Seattle on the road.

PACKERS (-8) over Vikings
Also stay away from Minnesota on the road.

49ers (-7) over RAMS
They tied three weeks ago, I can’t imagine San Francisco will allow for it to be close again.

JETS (-4.5) over Cardinals
Who is on the Ryan Lindley bandwagon? Maybe Ryan Lindley, but that’s probably about it.

Panthers (-3) over CHIEFS
Maybe in 2008 deciding between Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel sounded like a good problem. In 2012 it sounds like having to pick the instrument of your own death.

LIONS (-4.5) over Colts
Lions keep getting really close to winning and the Colts are certainly not as good as the Packers or Texans. If Detroit does nothing else this season they will likely change the rule about throwing a challenge flag on an automatic review play making it unreviewable after that Thanksgiving disaster. And if you don’t know what I’m talking about, it is for the best, it is needlessly complicated and unfair.

Jaguars (+6) over BILLS
Line is just a bit too high for my tastes.

Patriots (-7.5) over DOLPHINS
New England seems to have entered the part of the season where they destroy everyone they play.

Texans (-6) over TITANS
Houston has not been impressive in the last couple weeks, but on the other hand Tennessee is Tennessee.

Buccaneers (+7) over BRONCOS
Tampa is legit; I’ll take them with seven points over most anyone.

RAVENS vs Steelers
There is no line for this game because no one knows if Roethlisberger is going to play or not. If he plays I bet the Steelers win by 3, if he doesn’t I bet the Steelers lose by 3.

Browns (even) over RAIDERS
The AFC West is a complete joke.

Bengals (-2.5) over CHARGERS
See above

COWBOYS (-10) over Eagles
How many points are enough points to pick the Eagles again? It would seem 10 is not enough.

REDSKINS (+2.5) over Giants
The Giants are more talented, but I’m hopeful of big things from RG3 in his first Monday night game.

Week 12 NFL Picks

It’s Thanksgiving. The one day of the year where NFL games on Thursday is not completely stupid. Of course because Thursday games are the norm on Thanksgiving, we now get three of them. It probably won’t be long before they shove a fourth Thanksgiving Day game down our throats. Either played in London and starting at 10am or played at midnight in Japan or something stupid like that. I’d wager that right now a team of NFL scientists are researching the Nightmare on Elm Street movies and trying to figure out a way to show games in our dreams, obviously for a fee.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 85-70-5
Lock of the Week: 6-5
Home team in CAPS

Texans (-3) over LIONS
Home teams have more of an advantage on Thursday games than they normally do, but even giving the Lions an extra couple points three is too small of a line. They really haven’t proven to be good at much of anything this year. It even took them until their eighth game to realize, let’s just throw it to Calvin Johnson all the time.

Redskins (+3) over COWBOYS
Both teams have been fairly poor against the spread lately and Redskins-Cowboys games are almost always close so I’ll take the points.

Patriots (-7) over JETS
The Jets played well last week. I’m going to assume that means they’ve used up all of their ‘good’ and will go back to having almost zero offensive contributors.

BENGALS (-8) over Raiders
Remember when Oakland won two straight games and a few people were complimenting how they’d turned things around. Those two games were against the Jaguars and Chiefs, I need say no more.

Steelers (-1) over BROWNS
I know Charlie Batch is starting at quarterback for Pittsburgh, but don’t forget the entire Browns starting lineup is starting for Cleveland.

COLTS (-3) over Bills
So Indy is nowhere near as good as the Patriots, but they still might be the sixth or seventh best team in the AFC. This of course means that either the Colts or Bengals will likely be playing a first round playoff game on the road in New England or Denver. The line will be 10+ and it probably will not be high enough.

Broncos (-10) over CHIEFS
Kansas City has played three games in which it was not completely useless. In their other seven games they have lost by double digits. For the Chiefs to cover a spread the other team has to be looking past them before the game even starts and get caught in a trap.

Titans (-3) over JAGUARS
There is one reason Jacksonville is better than the Chiefs, and that is because they can at least cover the occasional spread. Of course this game is at home, where they lose by an average of 17.8 points per game this season.

BEARS (even) over Vikings
Don’t know if Jay Cutler or Percy Harvin is playing, obviously their status would influence the line and influence my pick, but without knowing for sure the Bears are the pick. Their entire offense was manhandled by the 49ers, but I doubt that will happen two weeks in a row. Plus, the Vikings have struggled on the road and Chicago’s defense didn’t force any turnovers last week, so they are due for about four.

Falcons (-1) over BUCCANEERS
Tampa has been red hot from a betting perspective, but I think it’s time to stop putting money on the Bucs. This game will likely be close, but at only one point you have to just pick the team you think will win the game and that’s Atlanta.

DOLPHINS (+3) over Seahawks
Seattle is a beast at home, but they are nothing on the road.

Ravens (-1) over CHARGERS
Lock of the Week
People have seen San Diego play right? They are not a good football team. Sure, the Ravens have had their struggles on the road this season, but this being a one-point spread makes no sense to me. Philip Rivers is all sorts of geared up to throw an interception at the worst possible time.

SAINTS (+2) over 49ers
Doesn’t really matter who the 49ers put out at quarterback, I don’t think they can keep up with the Saints in New Orleans.

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Rams
Sure, Arizona is probably starting someone named Ryan Lindley, but Beanie Wells is back and even if he does nothing he seemed to have some sort of magical impact on their win-loss record last season and they haven’t won without him this year.

Packers (+2.5) over GIANTS
They Giants must get us all thinking they suck before they can sneak into the playoffs at 9-7 thanks to a bad NFC East and make it at least to the NFC Championship.

Panthers (+2.5) over EAGLES
I had the luxury of watching Philadelphia play last week and let me say, they are like some sort of machine made for sucking right now. No one (except maybe the Chiefs) should be an underdog to the Eagles right now.

Week 11 Picks

Woo, off to a 1-0 start! Now, let me ruin it.

Last Night: 1-0
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 78-63-5
Lock of the Week: 6-4

Home team in CAPS

REDSKINS (-3.5) over Eagles
You know the Eagles are bad when I’m picking the Redskins to cover as a favorite. Obviously this game will come down to one team making some sort of stupid mistake, and right now, no one makes more mistakes in the fourth quarter than the Eagles.

Packers (-3.5) over LIONS
Detroit has only played three games at home this season, so it’s hard to know if they really have any sort of home field advantage or not, but it probably doesn’t matter. Green Bay has failed to be impressive this season, but they’ve been good and look like they have greatness in them; meanwhile, the Lions just look like a big chunk of average.

FALCONS (-10) over Cardinals
Atlanta plays a lot of close games, but Arizona is 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games, so I’m not going to pick them.

Buccaneers (-1.5) over PANTHERS
I wasn’t sure at the start of the season, but it appears Tampa is back to their pattern of being a good team every other year. They are 7-2 against the spread this year, which is tied for best in the NFL with the Texans.

COWBOYS (-7.5) over Browns
Tony Romo is one of the best quarterbacks in the league in November, with a 20-3 record that is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Unfortunately for him and Cowboys fans, the month of December still exists.

RAMS (-3) over Jets
LOCK OF THE WEEK
We all should have known that if things went bad for the Jets, they’d go real bad real fast. That’s what happens with a cocky, brash team that talks a lot. If they aren’t playing good and talking trash they will start to eat each other.

Colts (+9) over PATRIOTS
Just seems like a few too many points for two teams with the same record. Sure, the Colts have played a lot of garbage teams, but a nine-point line is giving them no respect at all.

Jaguars (+15.5) over TEXANS
Yes, Jacksonville is comically awful, but holy shit, that is so many points. Oddly, the Jags are much more terrible at home than on the road. On the road they have yet to lose by double digits, so I’m hoping they can keep that up.

Bengals (-3.5) over CHIEFS
Kansas City almost got that win on Monday. That must have been nice for them.

Saints (-5) over RAIDERS
I would not want to play the Saints right now; they are going to close strong.

BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers
Might this be the end for Norv Turner? Only somewhere between two and six years too late. Gotta say, part of me will certainly miss the looks of a sad, disappointed, overwhelmed Norv on the sidelines next to Philip Rivers temper tantrum time.

Ravens (-3.5) over STEELERS
People like to talk about how the Steelers still have a good shot without Roethlisberger. People tend to be wrong.

Bears (+5) over 49ERS 
If only because I’m not sure that five total points will be scored in this game.

Week 11 Thursday Night Game

I can tell I am not going to be in any sort of mood to write at any time on Thursday after having spent the last eight hours writing pretty much non stop, so I'm just going to post my pick for the NFL's Thursday night overreach for airtime.

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 77-63-5
Lock of the Week: 6-4

BILLS (-2.5) over Dolphins
Has there been a single Thursday night game in which anyone who is not a fan of either team said, "I've gotta watch Thursday Night Football this week! Look at that matchup!" On the plus side it is a Dolphins game, which I guess means even in Buffalo there is an outside chance this guy could show up again.

This fan will go 'unforgotten' as well

Other picks to come tomorrow ... probably.

Week 10 NFL Picks

I’ll tell you the best part about this NFL season – the misery of other teams, particularly the Eagles and Cowboys. With the whole league coming across as somewhat boring this season due to an overabundance of parity and a lack of any truly great teams, we are forced to look elsewhere for entertainment. For me, that entertainment comes from the Cowboys clueless play week in and week out and the utter embarrassment that is the Philadelphia Eagles.

I know people have been up and down on Andy Reid over the past several years, but this year it seems like every single Philly fan would spit in Reid’s face if they saw him in the street. Also how quickly Vick fell out of favor is immensely entertaining. The worst part about Week 10 of the season is that the Eagles and Cowboys play one another, meaning one of them will likely come out with a win.

As far as last week goes, it appears every single person who gambled on NFL games did well. In fact it was one of the worst Sundays ever for Vegas. So my 12-2 record is much less impressive than it actually looks. Of course I didn’t make any bets with real money last week and I’m sure this all just means there is going to be a week in which everyone does horrible, or what we call “normal” by my standards.

Last Week: 12-2
Season: 68-58-5
Lock of the Week: 5-4

Home team in CAPS

Colts (-3.5) over JAGUARS
I can’t imagine that Jacksonville can beat the same team twice in one season. I question if they can even win twice in the season overall. Granted the Colts are still weak on the road, but I’ll give the rally behind Chuck Pagano boost at least one more week.

Bills (+11) over PATRIOTS
If for no other reason that any time this season it seems like you should be ready to put your faith in the Pats they turn around with an uninspired performance.

Giants (-4) over BENGALS
There is no way that New York’s passing offense continues to be as horrible as it has been the past two weeks.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Chargers
Lock of the Week
The Chargers last two wins both came over Kansas City. I feel nothing more needs to be said about them. But I will add this; every time I watch Norv Turner coach I come out very confused as to why he is still employed.


Broncos (-4) over PANTHERS
If this new Peyton Manning guy keeps winning people are going to forget about Tim Tebow.

DOLPHINS (-6) over Titans
This is tough because Miami doesn’t really blow people out (the Jets were the one exception), but the Titans are simply terrible.

RAVENS (-7.5) over Raiders
Again, I don’t want to have to trust Baltimore to cover this points, but it’s better than the alternative of trusting Oakland to do anything. Doug Martin rushed for over 250 yards against them last week; it just so happens everyone always compares Doug Martin to Ray Rice, so you have to expect the Ravens will rush the ball 40 times.

SAINTS (+2.5) over Falcons
Atlanta is not going undefeated, also I expect the Saints to make some sort of mini-run to get everyone talking about them again at some point this season and now seems like a good time.

Lions (+2) over VIKINGS
It seems like Detroit is slowly putting things together and the Vikings not named Adrian Peterson have forgotten how to play well. Plus there is a chance Percy Harvin doesn’t play, in which case they really can’t do anything on offense except give the ball to Purple Jesus.

SEAHAWKS (-6) over Jets
Hmm, the Seahawks are 4-0 at home and the Jets are a hot mess with no offensive weapons whosoever. Tough one.

Cowboys (-1.5) over EAGLES
I guess I’ll take clueless and unlucky over dead in the water and already quit for the season.

49ERS (-11.5) over Rams
Can any NFL team like playing in London as the home team? It surely didn’t work out for the Rams. At least this game will count as a road loss.

Expect more of this coming soon

Texans (+1) over BEARS
Chicago has been among the most impressive teams in the NFL, but here are some fun stats. Their first eight opponents have a combined record of 27-39; their final eight have a combined record of 42-27. Chicago also ranks 29th in passing yards per game. Jay Cutler’s QB rating in the first half is 61.7, which is worst in the NFL. Also, Charles Tillman, the Bears MVP at this point, might miss the game to attend the birth of his child. So, I guess I’m saying they might not end up at 14-2.

STEELERS (-12.5) over Chiefs
I can’t really think of a way in which I could convince myself to pick the Chiefs.

Week 9 Picks

You’d think only being employed part-time I’d have no problem finding the time to make football picks every week, but I’m also forgetful and lazy. So these are going to have to be quick again.

Last Week: 8-6
Season: 56-56-5
Lock of the Week: 4-4

Home team in CAPS

CHARGERS (+8) over Chiefs
Sure this game already happened, but I picked San Diego. The only question left about Kansas City is do they have the top picked locked up or will Jacksonville give them a run for most awful?

Broncos (-3.5) over BENGALS
It appears that Peyton Manning is still good at football. Although to be fair his last two games were against the Saints and Chargers who can make nearly anyone look good. Regardless, I’m still taking the Broncos.

Cardinals (+10.5) over PACKERS
If Green Bay can’t beat Jacksonville by 10 at home, I don’t know why they’d beat the Cardinals by more than 10.

COLTS (+2.5) over Dolphins
Miami has won three straight games in which it has been outgained in both rushing and passing yards. That is not a sustainable way to win.

Ravens (-3.5) over BROWNS
Baltimore has looked mediocre at best over their past four games, but I don’t see how the Browns keep this within five points.

TEXANS (-10) over Bills
Arian Foster might rush for 200 yards.

Panthers (+3) over REDSKINS
How many times will the announcers compare Cam Newton and RG3? There are two media takes to these two. One, did you know they are both young, athletic black quarterbacks? So they must be the same person and compared all the time. And two, hey, did you know they are not the same person and are actually pretty different QBs? Of course by pointing out number two it makes the assumption everyone is dumb enough that they are thinking they are the same to begin with.

Lions (-4) over JAGAURS
Jacksonville is not giving up the first pick that easy Kansas City.

Bears (-3.5) over TITANS
Despite having an offense ranked near the bottom in passing yards and first down yardage, the Bears could be the best team in the NFC.

SEAHAWKS (-4.5) over Vikings
Seattle is just a different team at home.

Buccaneers (+1.5) over Raiders
Oakland has won back-to-back games! But they were against the Jags and Chiefs, so that winning streak is meaningless.

GIANTS (-3) over Steelers
I begrudgingly admit that the Giants are very good.

FALCONS (-4) over Cowboys 

Lock of the WeekIt’ll be fun to see in what way the Cowboys blow this game. They are really inventive when it comes to losing.

SAINTS (-3) over Eagles
Everything is falling apart in Philly. I don’t think Andy Reid has any supporters left.

Week 8 Picks

After two bad weeks it seems any early hopes I had of doing well this season are fading. This is why gambling is stupid.

This week I’m going to make my picks without doing any research into trends or how well I think teams matchup with one another, I’m bound to do better.

Last Week: 4-7-2
Season: 48-50-5
Lock of the Week: 4-3

Home team in CAPS

VIKINGS (-6?) over Buccaneers
To be honest I didn’t really make a pick before this game happened, but I’m fairly certain I would have taken Minnesota at home and been horrendously wrong.

RAMS (+7) over Patriots
Are the Patriots not very good? It seems sometimes they look Super Bowl bound and other times like they don’t deserve to make the playoffs. As such, seven points on the road sounds a bit high.

Colts (+3.5) over TITANS
I’m still fully convinced the Titans are terrible. They aren’t fooling me with these “wins” of theirs.

Jaguars (+15) over PACKERS
It seems like Green Bay is back as the offense is once again producing, but 15 points? Yes Jacksonville is garbage and will be without MJD, but well, I don’t really have a good case for the Jags. Just that 15 points is a ton.

Chargers (-3) over BROWNS

Lock of the Week
The Cleveland Browns sold for $1.05 billion. A billion dollars! For the Cleveland Browns! Also, you know things are going poorly when I decide to make a Norv Turner coached team my lock of the week. There are few people I'd rather have money on than Norv.



EAGLES (-3) over Falcons
By all accounts the Eagles shouldn’t be favored, yet they are. The only thing they have going for them is that Andy Reid is undefeated coming off bye weeks, but I don’t think that really matters too much. My thinking is if Vegas is favoring the Eagles by three here, they know better than I do and the Eagles are the pick.

Dolphins (+2) over JETS
So apparently everyone in New York wants to trade Tim Tebow now. What exactly did they expect from a backup QB? He was never going to get that many touches. Did the fans really want him to play as a running back? I think Tebow is a victim of his own unexplainable success. Last year was a Tim Tebow anomaly that is likely to never be duplicated.

LIONS (-2.5) over Seahawks
I don’t think the Lions are very good, but they can’t be 2-5 bad can they? Also Seattle is still not very good on the road.

Panthers (+7.5) over BEARS
For some reason I think this game will be close, I couldn’t tell you what that reason it, but it is what I think.

STEELERS (-4.5) over Redskins
The Steelers have a passing attack right? It’s almost as if all of their other injuries don’t matter as long as they can pass the ball. Sometimes the Redskins like to leave receivers open for 77-yard game-winning catches because they are really good against the pass.

CHIEFS (-1.5) over Raiders
Brady Quinn is the savior!

Giants (-2) over COWBOYS
No way the Giants lose to the Cowboys twice right? Of course I’m sure people said the same thing about the Giants vs. Redskins last year…

Saints (+6) over BRONCOS
No more interim interim coach for the Saints! I’m sure they’ll totally fix the defense now!

49ers (-7) over CARDINALS
The Cardinals were 4-0. Is it possible they end the season 4-12? I think so.

Week 7 NFL Picks

I meant to write two paragraphs about why fantasy football is annoying this year and it turned into four, so bear with me or skip ahead.

No one really likes it when anyone talks about fantasy football too much, but let me just say this – fantasy football is stupid this year. I’m not saying that because I’m bitter and my teams are awful, rather they are varying degrees of mediocre, but that’s the problem. Everyone’s teams are mediocre because so few players consistently perform week in and week out.

Yes, some quarterbacks are having good fantasy seasons, but outside of the QB spot it’s essentially a total crapshoot. Do you know how many WRs and RBs (and TEs) have scored over ten points every week this season? One – Arian Foster. Granted, that’s a special kind of consistency you can’t expect out of many players, but I would have guessed at least 3 or 4 guys were doing it.

More indicative of the inconsistent fantasy performance of most players this year is the play of Jamaal Charles. Charles is the fourth rated RB through six weeks of the season by Yahoo. His fantasy point totals in a standard scoring system with fractional points are 8.7, 2.2, 34.8, 19.1, 16.1, and 4.7. It used to be you could count on probably twelve to fifteen running backs to put up some sort of numbers every week. This year having a top level fantasy back doesn’t even guarantee you a five point performance in any given week.

As a result everyone’s team is the same and it’s not uncommon for a team to score 65 points one week and 115 the next week. The worst part of all of this is that it makes trading impossible. Statistically so many players are the same that you are just rolling the dice every week, so why not stick with the players already on your team? As a result this year is going to see a lot of fifth-seeded playoff teams win their league’s playoffs. Parity is good for the NFL, not so much for fantasy football.

Last Week: 5-9
Season: 44-43-3
Lock of the Week: 4-2

Home team in CAPS

49ERS (-7) over Seahawks
Seattle on the road is not the same team as Seattle at home. I also expect San Francisco to bounce back mightily from their loss. After their only other loss this season they responded with a 34-0 shutout of the Jets in New York.

BILLS (-3.5) over Titans
I didn’t see any of Tennessee’s win over the Steelers last week, but I’m going to assume two things. One, they are still awful; and two, any sort of non-awfulness they had was used up on Thursday.

VIKINGS (-6) over Cardinals
Are the injuries starting to become too much for the Cardinals? Or does Kevin Kolb getting injured just push them back to their original starter in John Skelton. Skelton has been pretty terrible in his two games this year and the Cardinals are also down their top two running backs, so I’m voting injuries are too much and they quickly fade.

COLTS (-2.5) over Browns
Stay away from this game because I do not understand Indianapolis. At home they beat the Vikings, lost to the Jaguars and then beat the Packers. They do not make sense. But, still overall they’ve shown ability at home and I can’t expect Cleveland to win two straight.

Ravens (+6.5) over TEXANS
Ordinarily I’d say the amount of injuries to the Ravens defense would doom them, but the Ravens defense wasn’t very good to begin with, so as long as their offense is intact they should still be one of the AFC’s better teams. I can’t imagine this line would have been as high without the injuries to Lewis and Webb, but they won’t make as much as a difference as it seems like they would.

RAMS (+5.5) over Packers
Rams are undefeated at home and winless on the road, plus they are 5-1 against the spread overall. The Packers are still far too inconsistent to trust; I’d still favor them to win this game, but by less than a FG.

Cowboys (-2) over PANTHERS
I hate to pick the Cowboys as road favorites (or really in any way at any place), but they are probably a bit better than it seems. Their three losses are on the road at Seattle and Baltimore and at home to the Bears; none of those are games many teams in the league would win. The Panthers meanwhile are less terrible than they were early, but still losing their games.

GIANTS (-5.5) over Redskins
When this line opened at seven, the Redskins were the pick, but now that it’s dropped down to five-and-a-half, it seems like the smart money is probably on New York. Sure, the Redskins beat the Giants twice last year, but that really has no bearing on this matchup. What’s important is that the Redskins are the worst team in the league against the pass and the Giants have the league’s third best passing offense.

BUCCANEERS (+3) over Saints
The Bucs beat the Saints at home last year even when New Orleans wasn’t terrible. Tampa proved last week that when playing a terrible defense they can put up points, so no reason they can’t score with the Saints this week.

Jets (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
I really like making fun of the Jets, but 10.5 is a lot of fucking points.

RAIDERS (-4) over Jaguars
The two lowest scoring teams in the league face off! It’s okay though because neither defense is very good either. The end zone will be open; can either team find a way to stumble into it? Find out on CBS!

BENGALS (+1.5) over Steelers

Lock of the Week
Pittsburgh is incredibly banged up (I know, third team I’ve written that about) and they always seem to struggle without Troy Polamalu. They will be missing far more than just him on Sunday. Throw in the fact that they are already 0-3 on the road this year with losses to both the terrible Raiders and terrible Titans, and they should lose this game outright.

BEARS (-6) over Lions
It’s possible that Chicago is the best team in football right now. I can’t imagine how that is possibly true with Jay Cutler as their QB, yet here we are.

Week 6 Picks

Already 0-1 this week. Good start, getting through the rest of this week's picks real quick as there are beers that aren’t going to drink themselves.

BROWNS (+1) over Bengals
Picking Cleveland goes against just about everything I stand for, yet here we are.

JETS (-3.5) over Colts
I’m not going to try to make any sense of Indianapolis. They beat the Packers and Vikings, but lost to the Jaguars? The Jets seem destined for .500, so I’ll take them to win this game.

BUCCANEERS (-4) over Chiefs
Despite both of these teams being horrible, they both seem to be good at one thing. Tampa Bay has the top ranked rushing defense and Kansas City has the second ranked rushing offense. The deciding factor here is that the Chiefs will be playing Brady Quinn at quarterback (if Matt Cassel was healthy the deciding factor would have been that the Chiefs were playing Matt Cassel at quarterback).

FALCONS (-9) over Raiders
After this week Atlanta will likely be 6-0, but keep in mind that’s 6-0 having played four games against the AFC West. It’s kind of like going undefeated arm wrestling the guy from “My Left Foot”.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Cowboys
Lock of the Week
I love to hate the Cowboys, but they are just plain boring this season.

Lions (+4) over EAGLES
If Detroit is going to make a move it has to be now.

DOLPHINS (-3.5) over Rams
Turns out Miami isn’t as terrible as it seemed like they would be.

Patriots (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS
As previously mentioned, forget about that 1-2 Patriots record, they are still annoyingly good.

CARDINALS (-4.5) over Bills
The fact that Buffalo doesn’t have the statistically worst defense in the league really says a lot about how terrible the Tennessee Titans are, because wow, Buffalo’s defense is TERRIBLE. The Cardinals showed last week that they are by no means great, but they are still good enough at home to beat a worthless Bills team by a touchdown.

Vikings (+2.5) over REDSKINS
The Redskins can’t seem to beat the Vikings even when they are bad, so now that they are all of the sudden good I don’t see how they can win this game.

Giants (+6.5) over 49ERS
New York’s offense is just too good for me to pick anyone to beat them by more than four points.

TEXANS (-3.5) over Packers
Seriously, what the F happened to Green Bay? They don’t have a different roster but they are suddenly much worse on offense. But fair warning to myself, the Texans haven’t really played anyone so who really knows if they are any good.

CHARGERS (-1.5) over Broncos
Wasn’t Denver’s defense really good last year? Wasn’t that how Tim Tebow won all those games and became Tim Tebow – NFL Unexplained Phenomenon of 2011? What happened to that defense?

Week 6 Thursday Game

Abbreviated post, will be finished on Friday:

Who had Week 5 in the when will RG3 suffer his inevitable first concussion of the season? Luckily it seems as if it was minor, but I have no confidence it won’t happen again. There is a reason Redskins fans hearts jump into their throats every single time Griffin takes off downfield.

Also, what the hell is with people’s feet this year? I don’t think I knew what a Lisfranc injury was or had even heard the term until last season, but in the last two weeks at least three players have been placed on the DL with a Lisfranc fracture. Santonio Holmes, Cedric Benson, and Carolina Panthers center Ryan Kalil all are out for the season. How does an injury like this go from unknown to seemingly the most common problem in the league? Is something wrong with shoes? Are people running over each other’s feet with cars? Is that what’s hot in the streets?

And I’m not going to pretend I’m a big baseball fan, but I have been watching as much of the Nationals and Orioles as I have been able to over the last month. So let me quickly say – playoff baseball is the worst. It seems like it is the only sport where a team can reach the playoffs and then appear as if they have no business being there. Plus I hate the Yankees and they always seem to win stupid games like Game 3 against the O’s. Anyways, football.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 39-35-3
Lock of the Week: 4-1

Steelers (-6.5) over TITANS

The Steelers are 0-2 on the road and always struggle without Troy Polamalu, but the Titans are simply terrible. On the plus side this is a Thursday night game I won’t feel the slightest bit bad about not watching at all.

Week 5 NFL Picks

Whoops! It happened; I completely forgot football was on Thursday. Thus I did not post my picks yesterday. Don’t worry, if you happen to think I’m cheating, I picked the Cardinals. I really hope the NFL Network is getting terrible ratings for these games, but I’m also sure they’re not because there are too many people who can never get enough football.

Sidenote: I haven’t watched a Thursday night game since the first one, are they still using that horrific song by Cee Lo as their theme music? I have to imagine that Goodie Mob Cee Lo would be sick to his stomach if he saw what 2012 Cee Lo Green has turned into (that said they are getting back together to at least some degree, but that's because everyone likes money). I get that Ice Cube, Ice Tea, and LL Cool J started the trend of turning from rapper into star of either terrible or mediocre mainstream TV and movies, but when the Cee Lo NBC sitcom comes out I might die a little inside.

Last Week: 9-5-1
Season: 32-28-3
Lock of the Week: 3-1

Home team in CAPS

Cardinals (-1.5) over RAMS
Don't know how I didn't see this one coming. I didn't respect the Cardinals, but I think I just kinda hoped they would somehow keep winning and get people believing in them.

Falcons (-3) over REDSKINS
My initial reaction was that this line was crazy and the Falcons should be favored by a touchdown. But in reality the one area Atlanta has problems is in stopping the run and that is one thing the Redskins do well. But the Redskins stand no chance of stopping a team with a legitimate passing attack unless they force a couple turnovers. The Falcons are good at protecting the ball and moving through the air; Washington won’t be able to keep up. Plus, D.C. already had its surprise victory of the week when Teddy won the presidents race on Wednesday.

STEELERS (-3.5) over Eagles
The bye week should really help Pittsburgh. The Steelers get Polamalu and Harrison back, plus they should see Mendenhall get some playing time. Also helps that Tomlin has won his last four games coming off byes and the Steelers are much better at home than on the road.

COLTS (+7) over Packers
Still haven’t seen enough from Green Bay to make them favorites by an entire touchdown against anyone but the worst of the worst; Indy is just slightly better than terrible.

Browns (+9) over GIANTS
The Browns seem terrible, a lack of any wins will do that, but they’ve played most of their games close and had chances to win. Plus the Giants have been less than impressive thus far, they’ll probably win but it’ll be closer than most think.

VIKINGS (-5.5) over Titans
I’ve gone back and forth on this, but I believe the Titans are the worst team in the NFL. They are across the board below average or worse at every aspect of the game.

BENGALS (+3.5) over Dolphins
I still think the Bengals are overrated and destined to miss the playoffs

Ravens (-6) over CHIEFS
Forced to choose, I think I’d rather watch a Food Network show in which these two cities competed. Maryland blue crabs vs. Kansas City BBQ seems much more appealing to me. Maybe this is a sign that I’m get old, or more likely fat.

Seahawks (+3) over PANTHERS

Bears (-5) over JAGUARS

This is not the year for 1995 NFL expansion teams named after large predatory cats.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Broncos

Lock of the Week
When the Patriots are 10-2 it will be very hard to remember that at one point they were 1-2 and had people questioning how the season would end up for them.



49ERS (-9.5) over Bills
I bet Chris Berman spends too long talking about this game. He will also make several references to when both teams were good in the early 90s. And obviously he’ll say something about the Buffalo Bills circling the wagons and give someone a stupid nickname like, “No use crying over” C.J. Spiller “ed Milk”.

Chargers (+3.5) over SAINTS
Oh, the Saints are still being favored in games. That’s cute.

Texans (-8.5) over JETS
It’s happening. The Tim Tebow train is gaining steam. If only Mark Sanchez were Jewish, then this story would have an extra crazy religious person angle that would bring out some really really terrible signs and comments.

NFL Week 4 Picks

Obviously the biggest story from Week 3 continues to be the refs, but luckily I don’t need to discuss that anymore. The real refs are coming back and all calls will be 100% correct because no one ever complained about the refs before this year.

Week 3 was the week the NFL made us all feel stupid for thinking we knew what was going on. Trying to draw trends out of only two games is probably a mistake to begin with and on top of that teams that looked as if they had no business winning came out of nowhere to win their Week 3 games outright. The Chiefs, Raiders, Jaguars and Titans all won. For the first two weeks they were four of the worst five teams in the league along with the Browns. (Trusty old Browns, you’ll always be terrible.) As a result I had my first losing week of the season and now feel as if every game is a complete toss up … I mean, read my picks, I’m very smart.

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 23-23-2
Lock of the Week: 2-1

Home team in CAPS

RAVENS (-12) over Browns
Simple analysis: The Ravens are very good and the Browns are very bad. What’s funny about the Ravens is that most people still think of them as an elite defensive team with an average offense. They happen to currently rank second in points and fourth in yards on offense and 27th in yards allowed on defense (15th in points allowed). They will torch a very bad Browns pass defense.

Patriots (-4) over BILLS
Lock of the Week
The Patriots have their first sub-.500 record since they were 0-1 in 2003, but they are so very close to being 3-0. There are two ways to look at this: One, it is just bad luck that’s keeping the Pats down; they are still one of the best teams in the league. Two, the Patriots mystique that caused them to somehow always win close games is officially dead and buried; they are just like everyone else now. Either way, the Bills will suffer the wrath of an angry Belichick on Sunday.

LIONS (-5) over Vikings
Congratulations to the Vikings for ruining survivor pools across the country by beating the 49ers last week, I still refuse to give them credit. The lines are kind of all over the place with Matthew Stafford’s status for Sunday uncertain (but he’s gonna play).

FALCONS (-7) over Panthers
After last Thursday’s performance people might slowly be realizing that the Panthers are in big trouble this season. They haven’t been able to do anything on offense except when they played the Saints, who seem incapable of playing bounty-less defense. Their rushing offense, which was third best in the NFL last season, is non-existent. Now they get to play the Falcons, who have looked like the best team in the league.

49ers (-4) over JETS
Despite the 49ers performance last week I still put my complete faith in them and expect them to win the Super Bowl.

Chargers (+1) over CHIEFS
So the Chiefs are favored in a game. Super. That’s cute. Here is why stats are stupid and I should stop looking at them - the Chiefs currently have the NFL’s top ranked offense in terms of yardage.

Seriously, he's completely in the open

TEXANS (-12) over Titans
The Texans have the best point differential in the league at +46, the Titans have the worst at -46. The Titans only won last week because they returned a punt, a kickoff, and a fumble for TDs. Their only two offensive TDs were on passes of 61 and 71 yards. Go ahead and put extra men in the secondary to stop the big play and there is no way they score. Chris Johnson is less effective at running the ball than opposing soldiers are at shooting John Rambo.

Seahawks (-2.5) over Rams
Is it possible that the NFC West is somehow the best division in football? I’ve decided that no, it’s not possible. Until the Rams can generate offense against someone other than the Redskins I’ll still believe that they are terrible.

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Dolphins
The Cardinals next four games are against the Dolphins, Rams, Bills, and Vikings. All conceivably very winnable, which means they could be 7-0. I really hope this happens because they then play the 49ers, Packers, and Falcons in consecutive weeks. If Arizona is favored in any of those games it is basically like free money.

BRONCOS (-6.5) over Raiders
As I go through these picks I realize that Week 3 did not actually teach me any lesson whatsoever. I’m still picking against the teams that I think are horrible, despite the fact that many of those teams won last week. But seriously, the Raiders, come on.

Bengals (-2.5) over JAGUARS
How many people are too many people to put in the box against Jacksonville? 10? 11? Is there really any chance Blaine Gabbert beats you passing the ball?

Saints (+7.5) over Packers
The Saints look as if they might have the worst rushing defense in NFL history and are possibly the worst team in the NFC at this point. They’ve lost to the Redskins, Panthers, and Chiefs; all of whom have not beaten anyone else. Yet, still I can’t go with the Packers here because the Saints will score at least 20 points and I don’t have any faith in Green Bay’s offense to cover by over a TD in that scenario.

Redskins (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS
Against my better judgment I keep picking the Redskins. The Bucs are 3-0 against the spread, but that’s just because they’ve been underdogs every week. This game will be close, as nearly every game either of these teams play this year will be, so I’ll take the points. All things considered it’s more fun to watch the Redskins lose close games with a lot of offense this season than it has been to watch them lose close games with a lot of defense in past seasons.

EAGLES (-2) over Giants
The Giants offense has looked good the past two weeks, but keep in mind that they have only beaten the Bucs and Panthers. Also, there is no way the Eagles can continue with the astonishing rate at which they have been turning the ball over.

Bears (+3.5) over COWBOYS
Perhaps the two biggest head case teams in the NFL. Either one can play well enough to beat anyone, but both teams also have the capability of completely shutting down. I’d love to see a battle between bad Tony Romo and bad Jay Cutler. I say there would be more screaming and blame deflection from Cutler than tears and hanging his head from Romo, but it’d be close.

Week 3 Picks

Look what happens. I don’t watch any Week 1 games and officiating is a non-issue, the Redskins win, summer is still in full swing everyone’s happy. In Week 2, I made the mistake of watching the games and the refs ruined just about every game, the Redskins lost in an annoying manner, it started getting cold and I assume everyone is just a little bit more depressed. Football, I hate you (I’ll see you on Sunday).

The real big issue from last week was the refs. They basically decided to make their own rules regarding illegal contact and pass interference, they didn’t fully grasp the challenge system, and they exerted no control over the games (you know it gets bad when Cortland Finnegan is praising the replacement refs – that would basically be like AIDS complimenting what a good job replacement condoms are doing). And yet still the NFL is going Taylor Swift all over the refs and sticking by their ‘We are never ever ever ever getting back together’ stance.

Last Week: 7-7-2
Season: 17-13-2
Lock of the Week: 2-0

Home team in CAPS

Giants (+2.5) over PANTHERS
I almost forgot about this game again. I was all set to sit down and watch some sort of horrible movie and fall asleep on Thursday afternoon before realizing this game was today and I needed to get my picks out. Of course ‘needed’ is a strong word as maybe 30 people actually read this. Anyways, not ready to favor the Panthers here yet. Sure, they beat the Saints, but so did the Redskins and they didn’t exactly follow that up by proving to be a powerhouse.

Rams (+7.5) over BEARS

"I'm a huge baby"

The Rams are… not terrible. That’s the compliment I’m willing to give them at this point in the season. It will be interesting to see what they do in their first game against a real defense. I’ll obviously be pulling for them just because it increases the chance Jay Cutler will hit one of his offensive linemen in the back with a chair during a huddle.

Buccaneers (+7.5) over COWBOYS
The same Cowboys that looked like shit against the Seahawks last week right? Tony Romo over the Bucs team that has shown it knows how to create turnovers? Um, no thanks.

49ers (-7) over VIKINGS
“Take this down. My name is Jeff Briggs, and the San Francisco 49ers are the motherfucking truth.”

Lions (-3.5) over TITANS
While the 49ers might be the truth the Titans are the opposite of that, the lie? The false? Whatever it is, they are terrible. CJ2K has 21 yards on 19 carries. They rank last in rushing yards and third to last in rushing yards allowed.

REDSKINS (-3) over Bengals
There will almost assuredly by over 600 yards of passing in this game. The Bengals let Brandon Weeden go off on them and the Redskins defense lost two of its best players (Carriker and Orakpo) for the season and already sucked before that.

Jets (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
The Dolphins beat the Raiders and are now favored in a game. This is not the Raiders from last year that was a decent team; the Dolphins do not deserve credit for that win. Miami does tend to play the Jets close, but I’m taking the team that has proved basically nothing over the team that has proved absolutely nothing.

SAINTS (-9) over Chiefs
How bad must Kansas City be for them to be nine-point-underdogs against a 0-2 team and for me to not consider taking them for even one second?

Bills (-3) over BROWNS
Ugh, pass.

COLTS (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars have a ridiculously easy schedule and could still finish with less than two wins on the season.

CARDINALS (+3.5) over Eagles
I understand not giving the Cardinals any respect. I certainly didn’t give them any heading into last week, but it’s hard to make a 2-0 home team that just beat the Patriots in New England an underdog by more than a field goal.

Falcons (+3) over CHARGERS
These Chargers are already filling the role they fill best. Beat up on terrible opponents, get people thinking you are good, and then lose when you play a team that actually understands what a football is and how to use one.

BRONCOS (+2) over Texans
I do think Houston is good, one of the top teams in the AFC, but like San Diego they have only played against garbage and warmed up garbage. They are getting too much respect here.

Steelers (+4) over RAIDERS
Lock of the Week
Oh the Raiders. They were good last year so naturally they made the decision to fire everyone involved, change their scheme from something that was working and look like those Raiders teams from 2003-2009 that were a never ending source of comedy. By the way, if you selected Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson with the first two picks of your fantasy draft, you have my permission to chew your own toes off.


RAVENS (-3) push Patriots
The last time either of these teams had a losing record was Week 6 of the 2008 season, yet whoever loses this game will fall to 1-2. Oh, and that’s right, I’m calling for this game to be a push. The Ravens will be three, they win by two or four it will be a loss for me.

Packers (-3) over SEAHAWKS
It’s slightly possible that the Seahawks are for real and a force at home, but I’m not ready to give the Packers so few points. The Green Bay offense has looked slow and confused, either they get it going this game or it becomes a real issue. (I actually predict both in the long run, they’ll show up here but their offense is not going to be what it was in the past. It appears they miss Joe Philbin.)

Week 2 Picks

The NFL, who has never heard the phrase ‘too much of a good thing’, has decided to jam Thursday Night Football down our throats all year this season. That’s right every week there is a Thursday night game, and every week I will probably realize this fact on Wednesday and get mad. I would love to watch the Packers and Bears play, but I’d like to watch it on Sunday, with the rest of football.

Remember when Thanksgiving was special because of Thursday football? Well, never again. The NFL is trying to kill Thanksgiving. Don’t be surprised when Roger Goodell comes to your Thanksgiving dinner, knocks your table over and shits in the turkey. That’s basically what he’s already done.

Sorry, I mean, enjoy this Bears Packers game tonight!

As far as Week 1 goes, I got off to a good start and it appears that RG3 might be the savior of DC after all. Sure the Redskins won their opening game the last two seasons as well, but this is different, right?

Last Week: 10-6 
Lock of the Week: 1-0 
Season: 10-6

Home Team in CAPS

PACKERS (-5) over Bears 
I really do think that the Packers will be worse and the Bears significantly better this year as compared to last, but I just can’t envision the Packers starting 0-2. The Packers haven’t lost at home to Chicago since 2007, the end of the Brett Favre era.

Buccaneers (+7) over GIANTS 
2008 Bucs: 9-7. 2009 Bucs: 3-13. 2010 Bucs: 10-6. 2011 Bucs: 4-12. 2012 Bucs: something better? The Bucs are not a great team, they aren’t even a very good team, but somehow they will find a way to be around .500 on the year. Then next year they will be terrible. The Giants meanwhile couldn’t stop anything against the Cowboys last week, so seven points is just too much here.

PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Cardinals 
This is a lot of points for this early in the season, but it turn out the Patriots look really good again. After the first week they are the top ranked offense and defense. The level of consistency displayed in New England is unfair to fans of every other team. I think the Cardinals should allowed to play both John Skelton and Kevin Kolb at the same time and get two balls to play with; they still would generate less offense than New England.

Vikings (-1) over COLTS 
Somehow the Vikings might start the season 2-0, such is the advantage of playing against the AFC South.

Saints (-2.5) over PANTHERS 
The Panthers rushed the ball 13 times for 10 yards last week. They are going to need a much more dynamic attack to have a chance against the Saints, who may have lost last week but still put 32 points on the board.

BILLS (-3) over Chiefs 
Two teams firmly in the fight for least impressive Week 1 performance and mascot that was most abused by 19th century white Americans. I’m giving a slight edge to Buffalo based on… I don’t know, let’s say home field.

Ravens (+2.5) over EAGLES
Lock of the Week 

I had to check this spread like three times. Sure, the Eagles are at home but I don’t understand how they can be favored against the Ravens. They couldn’t figure out the Browns defense and we are to believe that they’ll handle the Ravens with no problem? I'll tell you what I'd do if I were GM of the Eagles. I'd hire an assistant coach who has only one job, constantly remind Andy Reid that he is allowed to call run plays. 56 pass attempts when they were averaging five yards per carry is unreal. And yes, Vick still makes me scared of making this pick my lock.

Raiders (-2.5) over DOLPHINS 
The Dolphins appeared to be just as bad at football on CBS as they looked to be on HBO.

Browns (+7) over BENGALS 
The Bengals are not unlike the Bucs, only off by one year. 2008: 4-11-1, 2009: 10-6, 2010: 4-12, 2011: 9-7. Seems to me like they are due for a four win season, you can’t fight meaningless patterns supported only be a very small amount of data points.

Texans (-7) over JAGUARS 
When do we think the Texans will have the AFC South clinched? Will it be before or after the 49ers clinch the NFC West? Both can probably do it in 12 weeks. The talent gap between Houston and the rest of the division is cavernous.

Cowboys (-3) over SEAHAWKS 
I hope everyone is ready for obnoxious Cowboys fans to come out of the woodwork after a 2-0 start.

Redskins (-3) over RAMS 
If this spread were even a half point higher I’d take the Rams. As a Redskins fan, St. Louis frightens me, they seem to always play the Redskins close if not beat them. Plus, nothing would be more Redskins than beating the Saints, getting everyone excited, and then shitting the bed against the Rams.

Jets (+5.5) over STEELERS 
Five-and-a-half is just a little bit high for my tastes. The Jets showed they weren’t as terrible as people thought they were and these two tend to play close games in recently history. Oh and just because we don't want to forget about him and have him fall of the media map - Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow.

CHARGERS (-6) over Titans 
That was quick; it took one week from Antonio Gates to go from finally 100% healthy to questionable, which is where I imagine he’ll stay the rest of the year ruining fantasy teams across the land. They’ll still win this game though because the Titans are cooked. Say goodbye to Chris Johnson ever being a good RB again.

49ERS (-6.5) over Lions 
In one game that I didn’t even watch the 49ers turned me from a skeptic into a believer. It would appear the lesson from last week is that the Harbaugh brothers both really know how to coach. The Lions on the other hand may be the team headed for a letdown. A fun side bet for this game would be how many times they will mention Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz botched handshake/yelling match from last season. The over/under is set at 3,000.

FALCONS (-3) over Broncos 
For some reason I see this Falcons team head to 12 wins and another early playoff exit.

Week 1 NFL Picks

It’s a new season and Gamblor has moved homes. I’ve gone from a professional website to a very basic cookie cutter blogger.com format (expect the look and feel to change through the year until I find something decent). The primary reason is that I’m no longer employed, which of course means the accuracy of my picks is even more important because I can’t afford not to win.

Now, let’s move on to the NFL season that I seem to be completely indifferent towards! I barely watched the opening game between the Cowboys and Giants and am not particularly excited for any of the upcoming season. I’ll be missing the first Sunday of games and this doesn’t bother me at all. In other years I’d be worried all day about what was happening and perhaps try to listen to the games on the radio, but not this year. This year I don’t particularly care. 

I think the Redskins have officially beaten me to the point of submission. I should probably be excited about the start of the RG3 era, more excited than I have been in years. But I have no faith in the Redskins coaching staff, the talent around him, and most importantly the offensive line. Good thing they traded away their first round draft picks for the next 27 years, they wouldn’t want to build an entire team of talented players. 

Oh, I also just watched Two for the Money, which made me never want to gamble on sports. Now pay attention to the football picks of an unmotivated, uninformed man! 

Last Season: 119-127-10 

Home Team in CAPS


GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys

That’s right, I’m 0-1 before my first round of picks have even been published. I dare anyone to fail with that unprecedented level of efficiency. For some reason I thought the Giants would be more prepared than the Cowboys or that we’d at least see another Tony Romo fourth quarter meltdown, but it wasn’t meant to be.

BEARS (-10) over Colts

Ten points is a lot, but I’ll take my chances against a rookie QB on the road in Chicago.

Eagles (-8.5) over BROWNS

The Browns are terrible. Their two most important players on offense will be rookies, and quick name me the top Browns wide receiver. Did you come up with Greg Little? Shut up, no you didn’t stop lying, no one knows who Greg Little is.

JETS (-3) over Bills

I know the Jets were terrible during the preseason, but the Bills were almost as bad and are still the same Bills who lost eight of their last nine games last season.  No matter what happens I’m ready for some classic overreactions about the Jets. When will Tebow chants start? The first three and out? I’m ready for the Lord’s Force.

SAINTS (-7) over Redskins

I think my overwhelming pessimism regarding the Redskins is well established, but I’ll just clarify. Rookie QB on the road with no O-line against a team that will be super eager to show it can still win without a bounty system in place equals blow out.

Patriots (-5.5) over TITANS
Lock of the Week

The last time these two teams played the Patriots won 59-0. Sure that was in 2009, but convince me the Titans have gotten 50 points better. Yeah, sure they aren’t relying on the amazing duo of Vince Young or Kerry Collins anymore and that might be worth 35 points, but not 50.

Jaguars (+4) over VIKINGS

What an absolutely terrible game. Both teams are starting second-year QBs who weren’t exactly great last year and both will not have their all-pro RBs starting the game. The Jaguars at least had a decent defense last year while the Vikings were all-around terrible. I have no desire to pick Blaine Gabbert to cover a spread, but the game will probably be 3-0 so either way Jacksonville covers.

TEXANS (-12) over Dolphins

The Dolphins looked helpless on Hard Knocks. I really can’t imagine the bland, even-keel, ‘come on guys we have to do a lot better’ speeches Joe Philbin will be firing up the locker room with after this one.

LIONS (-7) over Rams

I do think Jeff Fisher will make the Rams better, but there is a long way between better and good. Sure, Two and a Half Men was ‘better’ with Charlie Sheen but that doesn’t mean it was good. Better than terrible is still really bad.

Falcons (-3) over CHIEFS

The Chiefs best chance to win games will be rushing the ball 68 times. Not a good sign.

PACKERS (-5) over 49ers

The 49ers have to be due for a down year right? No way they can replicate what happened last year.

BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Panthers

Remember at the end of last year how everyone thought Josh Freeman was going to be the next great QB and the Bucs were poised for a run at the NFC South crown? Well, 2012 Panthers fans might want to study up on those 2011 Bucs.

CARDINALS (+2.5) over Seahawks

I realize the Cardinals are awful and have John Skelton at QB, but it’s not like the Seahawks are great. They certainly aren’t a team that should be favored on the road by any means.

Steelers (+1.5) over BRONCOS

If Peyton Manning was just horrendous this year what would that do to his legacy? It’d end all discussions about who was better between him and Brady right? A bad game for the Broncos and we might start hearing about how they should have never let go of the Lord’s Force.

RAVENS (-6) over Bengals

The Bengals seem to alternate between good and terrible. They made the playoffs last year so it’s time for a round of terrible.

Chargers (+1) over RAIDERS

Darren McFadden started to break out last year when the Raiders went away from zone blocking. Of course this being the Raiders this year they are back to a zone blocking scheme. Al Davis is clearly still somehow in charge.